GT 7.5 Home Dog to UCF

boger2337

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,354
We are a 7.5 point dog. UCF is getting 65% of the bets and 99% of the early money. Over under opened at 62 and has dropped to 61 rightfully so.

I assume this line will grow to about 9.5-10.5 by kickoff. Too much money coming in on UCF to hold at 7.5.

The under at 61 looks solid. We will be lucky to hold them 24. They probably put up around 28-31. I don't think we cross the 21 mark. I think the spread is about right and we make it at worst a 2 score game.

I hate doubting the team I love more than most things on earth, but my prediction is 31-21 UCF.

We are still an extremely young team. UCF is a FAR different animal than FSU. UCF might hang 40+ on FSU in their current state.

The way we stay in this game is to control the clock and keep their offense off the field. Their defense will cause havoc, but they lack depth at CB and DL due to covid opt outs. If our Oline can wear them down an Mason can eat up yards we have a solid chance to keep this close and as Coach Collins give us a chance at the end of the game to win it.
 

Ibeeballin

GT Athlete
Messages
4,703
We are a 7.5 point dog. UCF is getting 65% of the bets and 99% of the early money. Over under opened at 62 and has dropped to 61 rightfully so.

I assume this line will grow to about 9.5-10.5 by kickoff. Too much money coming in on UCF to hold at 7.5.

The under at 61 looks solid. We will be lucky to hold them 24. They probably put up around 28-31. I don't think we cross the 21 mark. I think the spread is about right and we make it at worst a 2 score game.

I hate doubting the team I love more than most things on earth, but my prediction is 31-21 UCF.

We are still an extremely young team. UCF is a FAR different animal than FSU. UCF might hang 40+ on FSU in their current state.

The way we stay in this game is to control the clock and keep their offense off the field. Their defense will cause havoc, but they lack depth at CB and DL due to covid opt outs. If our Oline can wear them down an Mason can eat up yards we have a solid chance to keep this close and as Coach Collins give us a chance at the end of the game to win it.
lol
 

Madison Grant

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,052
UCF is a gimmick team. They run up and snap the ball, run up and snap the ball, run up and snap the ball as fast as they can to make the opposing defenses lose their focus and composure. Their hurry-up offense is over the top. It's like playing a loud-mouthed baseball team that talks a lot of trash from the dugout and gets in your head in high school. They're great at what they do and very successful. But don't let that fool you into thinking they put more talent on the field than most power 5 teams.
 

85Escape

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
376
Don't they have like 10 guys opting out? Is it just scrubs or are they missing anyone notable?
 

boger2337

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,354
Don't they have like 10 guys opting out? Is it just scrubs or are they missing anyone notable?
None of real significance. Most are 2nd level guys. They will be short on depth, but its all on defense. Thats why we have to run the ball and wear them out.
 

boger2337

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,354
UCF is a gimmick team. They run up and snap the ball, run up and snap the ball, run up and snap the ball as fast as they can to make the opposing defenses lose their focus and composure. Their hurry-up offense is over the top. It's like playing a loud-mouthed baseball team that talks a lot of trash from the dugout and gets in your head in high school. They're great at what they do and very successful. But don't let that fool you into thinking they put more talent on the field than most power 5 teams.
I agree. But it works. Its the same as our old offense. It took lesser players and equalized the talent on the field. They found another way to do it... cold truth. We have to get turnovers and run the ball extremely well. If they get a 2 score lead it won't be nearly as easy to come back on them as it was FSU. They have been running there scheme for a while and been extremely successful. Remember we are only 1 year away from losing to a far lesser opponent in citadel. We aren't a clemson, bama, Ohio state level yet. We will have to bring our A game and get a couple breaks to pull this one off.

These are non sugar-coated non gold glasses predictions.

Thankfully they haven't played a game. We have 1 game where we worked our kinks out. Now we have to score 30 to win.
 

GCdaJuiceMan

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,045
We are a 7.5 point dog. UCF is getting 65% of the bets and 99% of the early money. Over under opened at 62 and has dropped to 61 rightfully so.

I assume this line will grow to about 9.5-10.5 by kickoff. Too much money coming in on UCF to hold at 7.5.

The under at 61 looks solid. We will be lucky to hold them 24. They probably put up around 28-31. I don't think we cross the 21 mark. I think the spread is about right and we make it at worst a 2 score game.

I hate doubting the team I love more than most things on earth, but my prediction is 31-21 UCF.

We are still an extremely young team. UCF is a FAR different animal than FSU. UCF might hang 40+ on FSU in their current state.

The way we stay in this game is to control the clock and keep their offense off the field. Their defense will cause havoc, but they lack depth at CB and DL due to covid opt outs. If our Oline can wear them down an Mason can eat up yards we have a solid chance to keep this close and as Coach Collins give us a chance at the end of the game to win it.
Admit it, you thought they deserved a national championship in 17.
 

boger2337

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,354
Admit it, you thought they deserved a national championship in 17.
Hell no. Were they a top 10 team? Yes. Every bit. National title? No bama, clemson, ohio state would of won by 20+.

I find it funny how our fanbase ridicules people when we realize our faults. There is no reason to think we will go undefeated. I think its always wrong to do that. Then we look like the dwags in assthens.

Lets take this as a game plan to run the ball, control the clock and boom or bust defense have to get turnovers.
 

SOWEGA Jacket

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
395
UCF was darn good the year they went undefeated. It makes me chuckle to hear GT fans disparage them because it’s exactly what we heard in 1990. Would they have won the title? Doubtful, but they were really good with a legit QB. This is gonna be a shoot out type game and we’ll need every bit of Sims using his legs to keep drives going. We should be able to run on them which will open up Brown and Carter downfield. I like our chances because our DB’s are a strength. It’s going to be a fast fun game that will give us what we need - reps against a legit top 25 team.
 

boger2337

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,354
UCF was darn good the year they went undefeated. It makes me chuckle to hear GT fans disparage them because it’s exactly what we heard in 1990. Would they have won the title? Doubtful, but they were really good with a legit QB. This is gonna be a shoot out type game and we’ll need every bit of Sims using his legs to keep drives going. We should be able to run on them which will open up Brown and Carter downfield. I like our chances because our DB’s are a strength. It’s going to be a fast fun game that will give us what we need - reps against a legit top 25 team.
100% agreed.
To think we will blindly beat this UCF team is laughable. This is a hard working good team. If you under value a team they will punch you in the mouth.

I love what Curtis Ryans said. We are back to 0-0 sweep the win under the rug. STAY HUNGRY.

If they keep that energy and mindset we will be okay and have shots to win the game.
 

Heisman's Ghost

Helluva Engineer
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1,809
Location
Albany Georgia
UCF is a gimmick team. They run up and snap the ball, run up and snap the ball, run up and snap the ball as fast as they can to make the opposing defenses lose their focus and composure. Their hurry-up offense is over the top. It's like playing a loud-mouthed baseball team that talks a lot of trash from the dugout and gets in your head in high school. They're great at what they do and very successful. But don't let that fool you into thinking they put more talent on the field than most power 5 teams.
There is a lot of truth in this. They do a lot of hurry up and it is difficult to imagine a team with their recruiting rankings being as successful as they are but that is what has happened. A tribute to their coaching and they always seem to have good quarterbacks and running backs. They are not a power 5 team in star power but brother do they cause havoc in the P5 ranks. They very nearly beat Pitt last year.
 

BainbridgeJacket

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
778
I hope our safeties play a bit quicker than yesterday otherwise the plays over the top are going to hit. I agree that we need to run the ball and control the clock. If we can take away some of the underneath routes and disrupt the pocket, I think our corners are good enough to stick with their receivers on those deep routes especially if the safeties can arrive on time and shrink the window. They've got a good enough QB. Just need to let their tempo ruin them by forcing some quick 3&outs early.
 

Heisman's Ghost

Helluva Engineer
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Albany Georgia
UCF was darn good the year they went undefeated. It makes me chuckle to hear GT fans disparage them because it’s exactly what we heard in 1990. Would they have won the title? Doubtful, but they were really good with a legit QB. This is gonna be a shoot out type game and we’ll need every bit of Sims using his legs to keep drives going. We should be able to run on them which will open up Brown and Carter downfield. I like our chances because our DB’s are a strength. It’s going to be a fast fun game that will give us what we need - reps against a legit top 25 team.
I agree but I do not think we want to turn this game into a track meet. We want to control the tempo running the ball and making them go the distance with drives. I don't think they have the running game to just drive the ball on us. But we will see. A different animal from FSU is for sure.
 

boger2337

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,354
I hope our safeties play a bit quicker than yesterday otherwise the plays over the top are going to hit. I agree that we need to run the ball and control the clock. If we can take away some of the underneath routes and disrupt the pocket, I think our corners are good enough to stick with their receivers on those deep routes especially if the safeties can arrive on time and shrink the window. They've got a good enough QB. Just need to let their tempo ruin them by forcing some quick 3&outs early.
Yup! If we can pin them deep and play a clean game we should have a shot at the end.
 

WreckinGT

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,275
We have little chance if this game turns into a shootout. We need to run the ball, keep our defense from getting gassed, and limit the mistake opportunities for Sims.
 

305jacket

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
351
Agree with OP analysis. Game comes in under on the total and the spread likely gets moved to 9.5 pts. If it crosses the 10 threshold I’ll bet on GT, until then I’ll hold off. Not confident in that point spread yet.

UCF is a good football team, if we play sloppy (FGs, INTs) like last week they will make us pay more than FSU did. This will be one of our toughest games of the year. Let’s hope they are rusty and the home crowd can make a difference.
 

Frenchise

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
674
Location
Atlanta, Georgia
This is their first game. Have they been able to practice much? IIRC, they have a lot of guys returning. We'll need to play really well against them- FSU exposed some broken coverages, but for the most part, they weren't capitalized on, especially on some deep balls. Gotta clean up those coverages or they'll be hanging 40 on us. I really hope we don't keep asking slower LBs to cover zones...
 
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RyanS12

Helluva Engineer
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4,116
Location
Flint Michigan
Anything 10 or over I’m loading up. I’m still leaning towards the under since it’s UCFs first game. I see a 31-27’ish game.
I did well Saturday. Got us on the spread and money line. So I have some money to play with.
Syracuse killed me. Had them -24 and lost by 25. Blew a 4 team ticket for me.
 

SteamWhistle

Helluva Engineer
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Rome, GA
So UCF is a gimmick but Paul’s Offense wasn’t? UCF is legit the 2nd best team in Florida. Everyone who plays them says they have no talent etc. and that make everyone look dumb. If you want a comparison for what type of game I think this will be, their game vs Pitt last year.
 
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