UK averages giving up 225 RUSH YARDS PER GAME??
We need to get stats on what our opponents gave up to us vs. their rush defense average against everyone besides us.
We could see a Kansas-like performance on O...
I have a particular interest and perspective on this game, as Kentucky is my "second" team (I was born in Lexington). I was really hoping they would not get matched up together, but here we are. I will definitely be pulling for Tech in this one, but have watched every Kentucky game this year and am also a fan.
Like us, they are pretty good, but not great. In truth, they are built very similarly to us. They have a very solid offense that is largely based on the run (Williams and Snell both went over 1,000 yds this season and are a really good 1-2 punch). At times, they have simply lined up a running back behind center and run the wildcat offense with pretty good effect. They have a mobile QB (Stephen Johnson) that was a transfer and has only gotten better as the year has progressed (became the starter in week 3 when Drew Barker was knocked out for the season). Johnson is not a great passer, but has proven to be very effective over and over again hitting big passes on play-action (sound familiar?). They have used the wildcat formation less and less as Johnson has become more comfortable (Johnson can also be turnover prone).
Their defense is not great, but has improved as the season has progressed (really once Stoops got more personally involved with the D mid-season after a bad start). Their linebackers and depth have been a particular concern (sound familiar?). They usually rely on their O to get the job done, with their D making just enough stops/turnovers (you get the idea). I just see them as very similar teams at this point in the season.
Georgia is an interesting analysis, as both teams played UGA late in the season and UGA is also a run-heavy team. Against UGA:
UK gave up 27 points on 460 yards -- 245 passing (7.9 ypp), 215 rushing (5.1 ypr)
Tech gave up 27 points on 402 yards -- 139 passing (5.0 ypp), 263 rushing (6.3 ypr)
That does not immediately lead me to anticipate a "Kansas-like performance on O." And, remember, Stoops obviously has experience coaching D against us when he was at FSU.
I think CPJ is the better coach but, to be fair, we have struggled a bit in bowl games during his regime. In the end, I think the line of 3.5 to Tech sounds about right, but expect this to be a very close one with both sides hitting some big plays.