FEI Off/Def/SpT Rankings 2018

[Boaty1]

You do know every team in the country has the luxury of playing really bad teams right? It’s just part of football and where the numbers come from. I actually like FEI and think they do a good job. It’s pretty dry cut of how they calculate their numbers.

But every team in the country does not do what we did to Louisville and Bowling Green.

We seem to either dominate or be dominated. Rarely is it a case of give and take with our O.

 

[takethepoints]

I think this is pretty accurate, actually. As was said above, every team in the country plays bad teams; it's how well you do against them that gets translated into overall stats. Tech has done extremely well. On D, we ended up 63rd in 2017 (just below Stanford, btw). I suspect we'll end up about there this year. I would guess that the stats for this year so far are inflated by the USF game, they scored a lot of points and had a lot of first downs in that one. Also, a lot of teams are just now getting into the meat of their schedule; Tech will have met all of the heavy hitters except Ugag after tomorrow night. That'll make for some fluctuations in the D stats.

Btw - again - this is closer to what we should have in recruiting. The data are there, but collecting them and ramming them into a form that makes sense would be a formidable undertaking.

 

[tech_wreck47]

I would like to see where we stand on D since after the Clemson game. The D has majorly improved since then.

 

[smathis30]

Issue is our offense has been damn near perfect against 4 of the worst defenses and woefully average against 3 teams which makes the law of averages make it look better than it should be. The fact that we fumbled the ball 17 times (but only lost it 5 times) against clemson and Duke doesn't reflect in it. We've played two extremes and not a lot in the middle. The only thing this shows is that we potentially should have beat Pitt, but if pitt wins out, they win the coastal... so its hard saying how bad they really are.

 

[alentrekin]

AFAIK FEI does not adjust for "sudden change", which is implicitly a turnover penalty if your defense sucks at sudden change, which we do. It does adjust for field position differences but I think it's agnostic on turnovers.

 

[ibeattetris]

I think a lot of people do not understand this metric...FEI is meant to calculate offensive efficiency. It also adjusts for SOS, so I don't understand why it matters who we have played. It also disregards drives scored in "garbage time" (in a blow out with subs in, end of quarter drives where QB kneels, etc), so several of our drives against Louisville don't even count. FEI Efficiency looks to measure:

Offensive Efficiency (OE) is the value generated per drive by a team's offense adjusted for starting field position. OFEI is offensive efficiency adjusted for the strength of opponent defenses faced.

OFEI (the opponent adjusted stat) we are ranked 11 while in non adjusted we are ranked 10.
Here are the individual metrics with our ranks preceding them in bold:
10 Offensive Drive Success rate (ODS) is the percentage of offensive drives that generate value greater than the starting field position value of the drive.
15 Available Yards percentage (OAY) is the total number of yards earned by the offense divided by the number of yards available to be earned based on starting field position.
39 First Down Rate (OFD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down.
8 Touchdown Rate (OTD) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown.
7 Touchdown Rate After First Down (OTF) is the percentage touchdowns scored on offensive drives that earn at least one first down.
21 Ball Control Rate (OBC) is the percentage of offensive drives that last four plays or more.
86 Turnover Rate (OTO) is the percentage of offensive drives that result in a fumble or interception.

These are the metrics that FEI values and weighs (how much each is weighted, I do not know). Can anyone actually argue that we are not good at these things (excluding turnovers)?

If not for our abundance of fumbles, our offense would have performed well in every game but Duke. According to FEI, turnovers are the main reason our offense isn't much better. It also shows, when we get one first down, our likelihood of scoring is great (over 50%).

Even S&P doesn't think we are a bad offense, and that is the metric we generally perform poorly in:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaoff

 

[ibeattetris]

AFAIK FEI does not adjust for "sudden change", which is implicitly a turnover penalty if your defense sucks at sudden change, which we do. It does adjust for field position differences but I think it's agnostic on turnovers.

Pretty much. Getting put in a lot of bad field position situations will affect FEI pretty heavily since it relies on TD% pretty heavily (though the counter to that would be for us to force more FGs).

S&P does a better job at accounting for field position, and we are worse in S&P.

 

[RamblinWreck92]

anyone who watched the PITT and Duke games and thinks our offense is fine isn't watching the same games I am.

7 pts thru 3 qtrs vs Duke sucks. 1st half shutout vs PITT sucks. Looks like more padded cupcake stats for the O.

 

[bobongo]

anyone who watched the PITT and Duke games and thinks our offense is fine isn't watching the same games I am.

7 pts thru 3 qtrs vs Duke sucks. 1st half shutout vs PITT sucks. Looks like more padded cupcake stats for the O.

Stats have their place - no one has time to familiarize themselves with all the teams so they give us a reference point, a guide for all those other teams.

But as fans of one team, we've watched everything our offense has done, and we know how it goes, and how the stats can be misleading in our case - we run at will over the Sister of the Poor and have trouble getting out of our backfield against any defense worth its salt. We don't need stats to tell us how good/bad this offense is, we can see.

At least that's been true up to now. We'll see what happens tomorrow night. Hopefully the OL can keep VT out of our backfield enough to make it work.

 

[RiseUpATL]

anyone who watched the PITT and Duke games and thinks our offense is fine isn't watching the same games I am.

7 pts thru 3 qtrs vs Duke sucks. 1st half shutout vs PITT sucks. Looks like more padded cupcake stats for the O.

Agree. I take zero pride in saying we are the best worst team. Or we are #1 in efficiency but have a losing record and in severe danger of missing another bowl. Stats are for losers. That has been said before. If they help you sleep then good on you. Even PJ has said you can make stats prove whatever point you want to make.

These stats are much more fun when you are winning. When you are losing they don’t mean much.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Football Outsiders released their first Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) offensive, defensive, and special teams rankings today. For anyone who doesn't know, FEI is a pretty reliable set of ratings/rankings for teams that does its best to clean up and normalize all of the data. This means things like taking out garbage drives at the end of games/halves (taking a knee or safely running the ball to kill clock) and adjusting ratings based on opponents' strength. The latter makes it a lot more accurate than simply quoting points per game or per drive because all the data for each team feeds off the others.

You can read up on it more on their site (linked below), but they're generally an accurate set of rankings that measure overall efficiency on both sides of the ball. They generally hold off until after the 7th week in order to make sure there is enough data. Their rankings will get more accurate as the season goes on, but below are the rankings as of now.

Website: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei

Offense:
3. Georgia
11. Georgia Tech
19. Clemson
64. Virginia Tech
67. Miami
68. Virginia
71. Duke
79. Pittsburgh
83. South Florida
87. North Carolina
108. Bowling Green
111. Louisville

Defense:
1. Clemson
6. Miami
21. Georgia
22. Duke
27. Virginia
72. South Florida
81. Pittsburgh
82. Virginia Tech
99. Georgia Tech
106. North Carolina
111. Louisville
127. Bowling Green

Special Teams:
6. Georgia
10. North Carolina
32. Virginia Tech
34. Virginia
42. Louisville
44. Pittsburgh
49. Duke
54. Clemson
78. Miami
121. Georgia Tech
123. Bowling Green
124. South Florida

I find it interesting to look at these and compare to our opponents and see how they change as the season goes on. They also have an overall ranking that looks like: 1. Clemson, 4. Georgia, 14. Duke, 20. Miami, 25. Virginia, 41. Virginia Tech, 56. Georgia Tech, 81. North Carolina, 85. Pittsburgh, 88. South Florida, 119. Louisville, 124. Bowling Green. They seem to think we're not as bad as our record shows.

We have improved in Special Teams from 125th to 121st. Must be the extra coaching emphasis. {full on sarcasm}

I was going to check this. Thanks for beating me to it!

 

[Cam]

We have improved in Special Teams from 125th to 121st. Must be the extra coaching emphasis. {full on sarcasm}

I was going to check this. Thanks for beating me to it!

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't checking it each day this week to see if they finally uploaded them. Don't know why, but I just love sifting through data like this. And I thought posting how they rank our offense as #11 would get some discussion going.

 

[Cam]

FEI seeming accurate so far this game. GT looking unstoppable on offense to VT's lackluster defense.

 

[ibeattetris]

Tonight's performance was the definition of efficiency. Look for this stat to increase next week. Two punts all game and touch downs on every drive we scored. If we can keep turnovers down we will have a chance in every game going forward.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Tonight's performance was the definition of efficiency. Look for this stat to increase next week. Two punts all game and touch downs on every drive we scored. If we can keep turnovers down we will have a chance in every game going forward.

Just need to get better on ST. Much better.

 

[Cam]

Updated October 31st, 2018 Rankings: New rankings with the change from last week moving up (+) or down (-) in parentheses.
Overall:
1. Clemson (0)
2. Georgia (+2)
22. Duke (-8)
28. Miami (-8)
33. Virginia (-8)
45. Georgia Tech (+11)
69. Virginia Tech (-28)
70. Pittsburgh (+15)
77. North Carolina (+4)
89. South Florida (-1)
124. Bowling Green (0)
125. Louisville (-6)

Offense:
4. Georgia (-1)
12. Georgia Tech (-1)
17. Clemson (+2)
56. Pittsburgh (+23)
57. Duke (+14)
71. Virginia Tech (-7)
72. South Florida (+11)
79. Miami (-12)
80. Virginia (-12)
92. North Carolina (-5)
105. Bowling Green (+3)
107. Louisville (+4)

Defense:
1. Clemson (0)
9. Miami (-3)
16. Georgia (+5)
27. Virginia (0)
42. Duke (+20)
85. South Florida (-13)
93. Georgia Tech (+6)
95. Virginia Tech (-13)
97. Pittsburgh (-16)
99. North Carolina (+7)
123. Louisville (-12)
127. Bowling Green (0)

Special Teams:
8. Georgia (-2)
13. North Carolina (-3)
16. Pittsburgh (+28)
41. Clemson (+13)
48. Miami (+30)
56. Louisville (-14)
59. Virginia Tech (-27)
64. Virginia (-30)
74. Duke (-25)
110. South Florida (+14)
118. Bowling Green (+5)
119. Georgia Tech (+2)

 

[tech_wreck47]

Updated October 31st, 2018 Rankings: New rankings with the change from last week moving up (+) or down (-) in parentheses.
Overall:
1. Clemson (0)
2. Georgia (+2)
22. Duke (-8)
28. Miami (-8)
33. Virginia (-8)
45. Georgia Tech (+11)
69. Virginia Tech (-28)
70. Pittsburgh (+15)
77. North Carolina (+4)
89. South Florida (-1)
124. Bowling Green (0)
125. Louisville (-6)

Offense:
4. Georgia (-1)
12. Georgia Tech (-1)
17. Clemson (+2)
56. Pittsburgh (+23)
57. Duke (+14)
71. Virginia Tech (-7)
72. South Florida (+11)
79. Miami (-12)
80. Virginia (-12)
92. North Carolina (-5)
105. Bowling Green (+3)
107. Louisville (+4)

Defense:
1. Clemson (0)
9. Miami (-3)
16. Georgia (+5)
27. Virginia (0)
42. Duke (+20)
85. South Florida (-13)
93. Georgia Tech (+6)
95. Virginia Tech (-13)
97. Pittsburgh (-16)
99. North Carolina (+7)
123. Louisville (-12)
127. Bowling Green (0)

Special Teams:
8. Georgia (-2)
13. North Carolina (-3)
16. Pittsburgh (+28)
41. Clemson (+13)
48. Miami (+30)
56. Louisville (-14)
59. Virginia Tech (-27)
64. Virginia (-30)
74. Duke (-25)
110. South Florida (+14)
118. Bowling Green (+5)
119. Georgia Tech (+2)

How in the world did we move down lol?

Edit: Just looked and they don’t have this past game against VT figured in yet. They have our record at 3-4.

 

[year_of_the_swarm]

Next year is make or break for Nate Woody... They've done well with turnovers but they still can't stop anyone unless they take the ball away.

It's really unfortunate because everyone wants to blame the offense, but the offense clearly isn't a problem... its the defense.

 

[AE 87]

There are no excuses for our losses to Pitt and USF.

How in the world did we move down lol?

Edit: Just looked and they don’t have this past game against VT figured in yet. They have our record at 3-4.

It's updated. It doesn't count FCS games (our win vs Alcorn St). I don't recall what our absolute FEI was last week, but I suspect that somehow LaLa sneaked above us in ranking even though our FEI improved.

 

[AE 87]

I really like footballoutsiders, but I really think that they're not handling strength of schedule well. I really don't think that so many Group of Five Defenses are that much better than ACC defenses this year.