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FEI Off/Def/SpT Rankings 2018

Discussion in 'Georgia Tech Football' started by Cam, Oct 24, 2018.

  1. Cam

    Cam Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    1,552
    Football Outsiders released their first Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) offensive, defensive, and special teams rankings today. For anyone who doesn't know, FEI is a pretty reliable set of ratings/rankings for teams that does its best to clean up and normalize all of the data. This means things like taking out garbage drives at the end of games/halves (taking a knee or safely running the ball to kill clock) and adjusting ratings based on opponents' strength. The latter makes it a lot more accurate than simply quoting points per game or per drive because all the data for each team feeds off the others.

    You can read up on it more on their site (linked below), but they're generally an accurate set of rankings that measure overall efficiency on both sides of the ball. They generally hold off until after the 7th week in order to make sure there is enough data. Their rankings will get more accurate as the season goes on, but below are the rankings as of now.

    Website: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei

    Offense:
    3. Georgia
    11. Georgia Tech
    19. Clemson
    64. Virginia Tech
    67. Miami
    68. Virginia
    71. Duke
    79. Pittsburgh
    83. South Florida
    87. North Carolina
    108. Bowling Green
    111. Louisville

    Defense:
    1. Clemson
    6. Miami
    21. Georgia
    22. Duke
    27. Virginia
    72. South Florida
    81. Pittsburgh
    82. Virginia Tech
    99. Georgia Tech
    106. North Carolina
    111. Louisville
    127. Bowling Green

    Special Teams:
    6. Georgia
    10. North Carolina
    32. Virginia Tech
    34. Virginia
    42. Louisville
    44. Pittsburgh
    49. Duke
    54. Clemson
    78. Miami
    121. Georgia Tech
    123. Bowling Green
    124. South Florida

    I find it interesting to look at these and compare to our opponents and see how they change as the season goes on. They also have an overall ranking that looks like: 1. Clemson, 4. Georgia, 14. Duke, 20. Miami, 25. Virginia, 41. Virginia Tech, 56. Georgia Tech, 81. North Carolina, 85. Pittsburgh, 88. South Florida, 119. Louisville, 124. Bowling Green. They seem to think we're not as bad as our record shows.
     
    GT_05, CuseJacket, GTNavyNuke and 2 others like this.
  2. Josh H

    Josh H Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    259
    I question those stats. The only games where the offense performed well was USF (where bad special teams and D doomed us), Bowling Green (terrible team), and Louisville (terrible team).

    Offense had terrible days against Pitt, Duke, and Clemson. Clemson is understandable. The other two teams are not very good.
     
  3. tech_wreck47

    tech_wreck47 Helluva Engineer

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    8,619
    You do know every team in the country has the luxury of playing really bad teams right? It’s just part of football and where the numbers come from. I actually like FEI and think they do a good job. It’s pretty dry cut of how they calculate their numbers.
     
  4. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    11,315
    Right. Against Clemson, I can't really "blame" anybody. We just lost.

    USF scored on something like 5 of 12 possessions. That's not too bad for the defense, but I'd say it was a shared loss by special teams and defense.

    Pitt we only scored 19 points. Hard to blame the defense for giving up 24 points when the offense doesn't do much all day.

    Duke got the ball multiple times on our side of the field, including 1 start on our own 5. Hard to blame the defense when they really only gave up 14 or 21 points, depending on how you look at it.

    All of our wins were dominating - we scored 170+ points in those 3 games.

    I think what's skewing these ratings is how lopsided those 3 performances were. Overall, we have outscored our opponents by 64 points - a win margin on average of nearly 10 points a game across all 7 games. Yet we are only 3-4. By comparison, Duke is 5-2 and have outscored their opponents by only 1 more point per game. When you're winning by 40 points, its only natural for the defense to start slacking off - especially if you're playing 3rd stringers and walk-ons.
     
    lauraee and bobongo like this.
  5. GTrob21

    GTrob21 Helluva Engineer

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    1,046
    So our offense beats up on bad teams and under performs when we play against equivalent to better talent...
     
  6. bobongo

    bobongo Helluva Engineer

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    2,130
    #11 on offense? Piffle. As Mark Twain said, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics".
     
    Boaty1 likes this.
  7. smokey_wasp

    smokey_wasp Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    3,980
    Beats up on bad teams and teams that aren't familiar with our offense. I hope no one uses this data to suggest that our offense is A-OK.
     
  8. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    11,315
    Yea but look back at some of our games - across BG and LV in 18 possessions we scored 19 touchdowns. 17 on offense and 2 in defense. We put up 41 on Alcorn State, 21 against Clemson who only gives up like 12 a game, 35 on USF. Those big efficient performances more than offset the bad stretches we’ve had. And like you say damned lies :D who cares if you win 300-0 if you then lose the next week 28-14.

    We’re the #1 offense in the country against below average teams. We’re the #75 offense against above average teams. (Yes I made that up for illustration purposes.)
     
  9. melloace

    melloace Helluva Engineer

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    470
    Man I knew Virginia Tech had defensive woes this year but didn't except to see them at 82.
     
  10. bobongo

    bobongo Helluva Engineer

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    2,130
    It's really pretty simple. We rock and roll against defenses that can't penetrate our backfield, and cough and sputter against those that can.
     
    Enuratique and Boaty1 like this.
  11. bobongo

    bobongo Helluva Engineer

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    2,130
    They give up only 123 yds. per game on the ground, 295 through the air. But as someone pointed out, a lot of those yard were "passes" behind the line. Bottom line is whether they can get into our backfield.
     
  12. UgaBlows

    UgaBlows Helluva Engineer

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    4,048
    #99 on defense, that is really dissapointing
     
  13. bobongo

    bobongo Helluva Engineer

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    2,130
    But does it reflect the 16 times they have given the ball to our offense?
     
    lauraee and UpperNorth like this.
  14. tech_wreck47

    tech_wreck47 Helluva Engineer

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    8,619
    @Josh H i should have probably added that yes those 3 games probably made our offense look better than what it is. I was just making a point that all teams have the same chance to play bad teams like we have.
     
  15. RiseUpATL

    RiseUpATL Banned

    Messages:
    147
    You are what your record says you are. Simple as that.
     
    Boaty1 likes this.
  16. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

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    11,315
    We’re the #1 most efficient 3-4 team in the country!
     
    lauraee and tech_wreck47 like this.
  17. tech_wreck47

    tech_wreck47 Helluva Engineer

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    Funny, I actually thought this morning that we are the best worst team in football.
     
    LibertyTurns likes this.
  18. Longestday

    Longestday Helluva Engineer Featured Member

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    2,742
    The offense has done very good in all but 2 games, Pitt and Duke. GT played Clemson above the average they face and scored >35 in all the other games except Pitt and Duke.

    Pitt and Duke... What the heck is going on that we have to fumble and brain fart so much. Duke has a good defense, but GT should be able to score >21 points.

    Now that said... I think we have a DR Jekyl and Mr Hyde Offense that has some issues when feelin pressure. The pressure seems to be making our players push. The passing/pass blocking/WR routes is an issue as well... Special teams is not helping either.

    The defense has improved and still has a chance to increase thier FEI, as long as the less than 30 yard line fumbles reduce.
     
    lauraee, GTdragons, COJacket and 3 others like this.
  19. IronJacket7

    IronJacket7 Helluva Engineer

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    2,388
    Our offense is not very good.
    Our defense is not very good.
    Our special teams is not very good.

    Things can change obviously but that's where we're at and I don't need an FEI or any other format to explain it to me.
     
    Boaty1 likes this.
  20. iceeater1969

    iceeater1969 Helluva Engineer

    Messages:
    6,658
    I like your stats toward end of year as a good way to look at team ranking.

    We have soundly defeated 3 very very crummy teams. One is fcs and the other 2 are in last place of their conference.

    Our next 3 games are against 2 teams that are highly ranked and against 1 team that is historically a good team but is playing .
    poorly.

    Must win 2.
     

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