Expectations for the 2021 season

[Augusta_Jacket]

The problem with these kind of rankings is that no one knows who is really good and who's a paper tiger. Until the games are played, OOC schedule rankings are like dates and events-based history, worthless.

While no one knows the future of anything in life, there are historical indicators and data that lead to fairly accurate prognostications in almost every field of study. The same is easily said of predicting college football. While no system or predictor is 100% accurate, they are right far more often than they are wrong.

 

[ncjacket79]

The problem with these kind of rankings is that no one knows who is really good and who's a paper tiger. Until the games are played, OOC schedule rankings are like dates and events-based history, worthless.

They are not worthless, just not 100% predictive. In general the predictions are directionally correct.

 

[gtchem05]

Here’s a grim prediction from a less than brilliant prognosticator at 247 Sports. This scholarly journalist believes we will lose 9 games at the hands of 10 different opponents and that we’ll somehow pick up 3 out-of-conference wins despite losing to UGA and Notre Dame. I’m not even mad, just amazed.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Here’s a grim prediction from a less than brilliant prognosticator at 247 Sports. This scholarly journalist believes we will lose 9 games at the hands of 10 different opponents and that we’ll somehow pick up 3 out-of-conference wins despite losing to UGA and Notre Dame. I’m not even mad, just amazed.

? !!!!

 

[TheJuiceIsLoose404]

Here’s a grim prediction from a less than brilliant prognosticator at 247 Sports. This scholarly journalist believes we will lose 9 games at the hands of 10 different opponents and that we’ll somehow pick up 3 out-of-conference wins despite losing to UGA and Notre Dame. I’m not even mad, just amazed.

NM

 

[forensicbuzz]

They are not worthless, just not 100% predictive. In general the predictions are directionally correct.

I say worthless in the same vein I say that pre-season polls are worthless. They're pretty good at setting some average teams up as good and suppressing some good teams that are thought of as average. In 1990, had Tech been ranked to start the season, there would have been no discussion about the National Champion. It would have been a consensus. Even at 10-0-1 going into the bowl game we were not #1, being ranked behind a 1 loss team that started the season ranked in the Top10. I've seen years that 4 loss SEC teams were still ranked in the Top 25 because they started so high. I have a major issue with pre-season polls, and thereby with pre-season OOC rankings by association.

 

[85Escape]

I say worthless in the same vein I say that pre-season polls are worthless. They're pretty good at setting some average teams up as good and suppressing some good teams that are thought of as average. In 1990, had Tech been ranked to start the season, there would have been no discussion about the National Champion. It would have been a consensus. Even at 10-0-1 going into the bowl game we were not #1, being ranked behind a 1 loss team that started the season ranked in the Top10. I've seen years that 4 loss SEC teams were still ranked in the Top 25 because they started so high. I have a major issue with pre-season polls, and thereby with pre-season OOC rankings by association.

Me too. But I'd say that about the polls in general.

It will never happen, but I'd still rather have sixteen eight-team conferences (128 teams) with 11 (7 conference + 4 non-conference) regular season games ending in mid-Nov. The conference champions (16) advance to Thanksgiving week bowls. Bowl winners (8) play in pre-Christmas bowls after finals, those (4) winners play in post-Christmas games. Then the final game is played in the second week of January. On a Saturday night.

There. I've solved this whole mess. No consultancy fee necessary, I did that gratis. You're welcome.

 

[awbuzz]

Me too. But I'd say that about the polls in general.

It will never happen, but I'd still rather have sixteen eight-team conferences (128 teams) with 11 (7 conference + 4 non-conference) regular season games ending in mid-Nov. The conference champions (16) advance to Thanksgiving week bowls. Bowl winners (8) play in pre-Christmas bowls after finals, those (4) winners play in post-Christmas games. Then the final game is played in the second week of January. On a Saturday night.

There. I've solved this whole mess. No consultancy fee necessary, I did that gratis. You're welcome.

... now do the same with a CA$H model

 

[slugboy]

Putting the schedule in context:

1. We're a (preseason) top-5 hardest schedule, but we're not the worst. (Nebraska and Arkansas, enjoy your year)
2. Roughly, a top-5 level program (Clemson/Ohio State/Oklahoma/...) would expect to go 9-3 with this schedule. If we go bowling, we're a really good team.
3. There are some top-25 teams with a schedule in the ballpark of ours, but for the most part, they have an easier road than we do. LSU and Indiana are looking at a rough road, and Alabama and Ohio State have "real" schedules.

 

[CuseJacket]

Putting the schedule in context:

1. We're a (preseason) top-5 hardest schedule, but we're not the worst. (Nebraska and Arkansas, enjoy your year)
2. Roughly, a top-5 level program (Clemson/Ohio State/Oklahoma/...) would expect to go 9-3 with this schedule. If we go bowling, we're a really good team.
3. There are some top-25 teams with a schedule in the ballpark of ours, but for the most part, they have an easier road than we do. LSU and Indiana are looking at a rough road, and Alabama and Ohio State have "real" schedules.

 

[slugboy]

oof, no love from the FEI projections this season. 98 out of 130
I think this year should be a bigger improvement than that, by a good stretch

BCF Toys - 2021 FEI Preseason Projections

www.bcftoys.com

 

[YJMD]

oof, no love from the FEI projections this season. 98 out of 130
I think this year should be a bigger improvement than that, by a good stretch

BCF Toys - 2021 FEI Preseason Projections

www.bcftoys.com

They hate the acc in general it seems. How are these things calculated?

Also, putting us below Syracuse and Duke is awful awful sus.

 

[slugboy]

They hate the acc in general it seems. How are these things calculated?

Also, putting us below Syracuse and Duke is awful awful sus.

I believe he’s just using historical stats (https://www.bcftoys.com/projects/). SP+ will factor in individual players and the recruiting rankings, so transfers can help your projection there.

College Football Drive Efficiency (updated February 2021)​

All non-garbage, regulation offensive drives in FBS vs FBS college football games from 2007 to 2020 are included in the data set summarized and broken down by starting field position, including the total number of drives, the average points scored per drive (PPD), the frequency rate of each drive start event, and the frequency rate of each drive end event.

 

[YJMD]

I believe he’s just using historical stats (https://www.bcftoys.com/projects/). SP+ will factor in individual players and the recruiting rankings, so transfers can help your projection there.

That's where I'm puzzled. The only way I can justify putting Duke and Cuse ahead of us is that they were somewhat so in 2019 & 2018 FEI. We were clearly ahead of each in 2020 and a few spots behind or mostly significantly better than each going back through 2014 (last I checked). Yes, even in 2015 we were better than each in FEI despite the record. We should be much better in roster talent added than either team from 2020-2021 and have much less roster talent loss in the last year as well. If their formula somehow weighs performance in Y-2, Y-3 to such a degree to make that kind of difference, then it is severely broken.

 

[GT33]

That's where I'm puzzled. The only way I can justify putting Duke and Cuse ahead of us is that they were somewhat so in 2019 & 2018 FEI. We were clearly ahead of each in 2020 and a few spots behind or mostly significantly better than each going back through 2014 (last I checked). Yes, even in 2015 we were better than each in FEI despite the record. We should be much better in roster talent added than either team from 2020-2021 and have much less roster talent loss in the last year as well. If their formula somehow weighs performance in Y-2, Y-3 to such a degree to make that kind of difference, then it is severely broken.

There is no way we're a worse football team than Duke or Syracuse. What is wrong with people?

 

[orientalnc]

There is no way we're a worse football team than Duke or Syracuse. What is wrong with people?

I think this is all yet to be determined. I know all of us certainly hope you are correct, but there remains a bit of well earned skepticism among our posters. We shall see. And it begins in just over a week.

My feeling is that we are measureably better than last season for a number of reasons. Foremost is the young players on last year's team now have a full season plus Spring and Summer practices behind them. We also have some good transfers, especially in the offensive line. We have some key players back who could not contribute last season. That said, we have a hellish schedule and could be a lot better with the results not showing how much we improved. But, my confidence in the correctness of my opinion says nothing about its accuracy.

I know almost nothing about Duke or Syracuse and I bet your knowledge about them isn't significantly better than mine. As I said above, we shall see.

 

[slugboy]

Good feedback on Tatum and Rutherford:

Freshmen Malik Rutherford, Trenilyas Tatum standing out for Georgia Tech

Two freshmen who’ve caught notice in Georgia Tech’s preseason practices are slot receiver Malik Rutherford and linebacker Trenilyas Tatum. Rutherford’s quickness and playmaking ability and Tatum’s instinctiveness have elevated both as they pursue playing time in the coming season.

www.ajc.com

 

[Root4GT]

Yep. I guess I’m just reacting to the idea of lowering expectations because the schedule is so difficult.

A side note is that when Dodd left coaching he was still athletic director. Poor Bud Carson came into schedule that was kind of “loaded up” by Dodd from 1967-1971. Tech’s opponents included the likes of Miami (back when they were good most years) Clemson, Tennessee, Auburn, and a rotation of FSU, Southern Cal and Michigan State. And, of course, uga. I was really pessimistic when Carson came in because Tech’s schedule was much harder the year he arrived. Each year Carson was there he faced 4-5 nationally ranked teams in addition to the usual tough rivalries.

So my point, I guess, is that even when the schedule is tough Tech fans expect to win. Carson was shown the door because tough schedules are no excuse.

But I am choosing to be optimistic, bottom line.

Miami, FSU and Clemson weren’t very good in the 67-71 timeframe. USC, Mich St, Tenn, Auburn and ND were all very good back then.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Miami, FSU and Clemson weren’t very good in the 67-71 timeframe. USC, Mich St, Tenn, Auburn and ND were all very good back then.

Miami, FSU and Clemson weren’t bad either. Miami beat uga, FSU gave LSU all they could handle and Clemson was never and an easy out for us. We had a much easier time with Michigan State. But yeah, USC was #1 in those days with ND not far behind. Tenn gave us fits but we usually played Auburn much closer.

But I’ll still remember those years as some of the hardest schedules Tech ever had. Even Tulane gave teams fits in those days.

 

[BCJacket]

My optimism for this season is going way up. Maybe I'm drinking gold koolaid by the pitcherful. It's a tough schedule, we're not going to win every game. But I do believe we're going to compete in some games no one is expecting us to be in.

It sounds like Eley and Quez are answers at LB and Tatum is getting a lot of buzz. The secondary is deep. The DL has a mix of experience and talent that just needs to gel. But most importantly IMHO: Everything that's coming out about the OL seems very positive. We have size, experience and depth on the OL we haven't had since I can remember.

Evidently, Kenny Cooper has won the starting left guard spot. He's been bitten by the injury bug the last couple seasons. But recall, he was a guy who started games as a True Fr back in 2016. Started every game the next two years. He's always played hard and smart. Now he's bulked up some and is fully healthy. He could be Shaq 2.0.

Which, Cooper holding down that spot lets Jordan Williams stay at right guard. He was good enough last year, as a true freshman, to start every game. (Granted: Part of that was need and lack of depth, but he was the one who earned that opportunity.) Now he has a full year of S&C, CBK's coaching and experience under his belt. He's apparently held off two highly experienced and talented transfers in Kirby and Pendley. Which gives us solid backups. Barring catastrophe, we won't be needing to play true freshmen or walk-ons this season.

So, imagine a good OL. Doesn't have to be great, just solidly good. Something we haven't had since... 2014? A good OL: Opening holes for Mason and Gibbs. Giving Sims time in the pocket and the WRs time to run their routes.

Now, go watch Sims' highlight reel from last year. Forget the lowlights. He was a true freshman, not even an early enrollee. He supplanted a returning starter in fall camp. Covid precautions had the team split up. So, he didn't even get a normal fall camp to run with the 1s and establish rapport. So, watch, and remember what Sims can do when he has time to throw and make his reads. He'll have a lot more of those opportunities this year. Watch the throws he can make on the run when he gets flushed out of the pocket or how he can scramble when the D does get through. He won't have to do that as much, but he can make magic out of nothing when we need him to. This team can be good, I believe.

(Another thing I was struck by is how many of the highlights were throws to Malachi Carter. He hasn't been the top guy previously, Camp and Brown were. But he makes tough catches and makes plays with the ball. I'm very excited to see what he brings this year.)