Expansion Talk 2021

[MusicalBuzz]

The big things that ESPN has depended on as they rose to behemoth power are: No two providers contracts with ESPN ended at the same time, and at least some people were interested in sports. That power is coming to an end because so many people are cutting the cord, and the TV providers are starting to thumb their nose at ESPN. ESPN put on a campaign to get people to abandon Comcast since the ACCN wasn't available on Comcast. I don't think that campaign had much effect.

The typical end of a contract would happen like this: The contract ends the week before college football starts. Both sides negotiate shrewdly. ESPN started advertising that college football might not be available on Dish/DirecTV/Comcast/Charter/etc (whichever one had the contract ending) and that fans might want to switch to another provider. The provider finally agreed to whatever outrageous price ESPN wanted in order to not lose 30-40% of their subscribers. Grandmothers who only watch the Hallmark Channel ended up paying $8-$10 for the main ESPN channel alone.

I have seen estimates from 5-6 years ago that the entire ESPN suite of channels cost the providers about $16 per subscriber. ESPN has been making most of their money from subscriber fees. The majority of those subscriber fees are from people who never, ever watch ESPN. Those people don't know that they are paying $16 for ESPN, they only know that their cable bill is too high.

That business model is changing, but for the last 20-30 years, yes it is true that nothing mattered to ESPN except ensuring that every TV subscriber is required to have ESPN and continually raising the rates they charge.

RJ, you’ve been hell-bent on the ESPN Subscriber theory for a while now. But mostly theorizing.

I’ve said that I worked Comcast for many years. I saw firsthand ESPN numbers that ranged in the $6-7 range. Though, this was prior to the launch of all the Conference channels.

That said, I work at Cox HQ now. I’ll see what generalities I can find vis-a-vis ESPN and football media revenue generally.

Because at some point I just can’t stand blind speculation. Even on a fan forum.

 

[Vespidae]

New York has an Atlantic coast. It’s Pittsburgh and Louisville that make no sense.

Easy enough. Just change the name to the Academics and Coeds Conference. Now we can admit anyone.

 

[MusicalBuzz]

First, no one wants WVU. They would suck up money and provide nothing.

Second, if ND wanted to join full time and it was 15 teams, you could go to 3 pods of 5 teams. For example:

South - GT, FSU, Clemson, Louisville, VT
Mid-ATL - UNC, Duke, NC State, Wake, UVA
ND POD - ND, Miami, Pitt, BC, Syracuse

Play your POD every year. Have a permanent in each of the other PODs. Play 2 each from the other 2 PODs on a rotating basis. That's 10 conference games. Best two teams play in the ACCCG.

The permanents in other PODs allows Miami vs FSU (with separate PODs), UVA vs VT, Clemson vs NC State, probably ND vs GT (so they can play in Atlanta every other year).

ND's schedule would become Miami, Pitt, BC, Syracuse, GT, and UNC (or whoever the hell they wanted their other permanent to be). Then they could play FSU, Louisville, Duke, and Virginia for two years and then Clemson, VT, NCSU, and Wake for two years. They get 2 non-conference games for USC and Navy.

I really like the matchups, eg less of Wake, State, Duke, etc

Aside the likelihood of never (or ever) winning the pod, how do you envision the conference championship game?

 

[bobongo]

New York has an Atlantic coast. It’s Pittsburgh and Louisville that make no sense.

Pennsylvania comes close enough to the Atlantic coast, and West Virginia used to be part of Virginia, so they're close enough if WVA were to join.
Louisville is the odd man out (in more ways than one).

 

[RonJohn]

RJ, you’ve been hell-bent on the ESPN Subscriber theory for a while now. But mostly theorizing.

I’ve said that I worked Comcast for many years. I saw firsthand ESPN numbers that ranged in the $6-7 range. Though, this was prior to the launch of all the Conference channels.

That said, I work at Cox HQ now. I’ll see what generalities I can find vis-a-vis ESPN and football media revenue generally.

Because at some point I just can’t stand blind speculation. Even on a fan forum.

I have admitted that I don't have actual information. Most if not all of those contracts are confidential. However, it isn't just blind speculation. I have seen the tactics of contracts ending a significant times for sports, and ESPN directing people to switch to other providers myself. I have seen many media about television and business provide estimates of the per subscriber costs. I posted one of those earlier in this thread from Standard & Poor's. They estimate that the ESPN channel gets an average of $8.97 per subscriber.

ESPN charts streaming growth, but cable network still Disney's No. 1 sports star

Given ESPN's strong linear economics and rights transfer issues, Walt Disney CEO Bob Chapek said transitioning ESPN in the direct-to-consumer arena is

www.spglobal.com

 

[bobongo]

I remember many years ago Major League Baseball was struggling with the vast sea of empty seats at games and wondered if better TV contracts would come if the visuals for TV included full stands. Someone did the math and concluded you could have large sections of general admission seating and charge $1.50 per seat and fill up the sight lines for the TV cameras thus creating a more exciting atmosphere and product.

Turns out, no one implemented this idea because broadcasters didn’t care. Or, put another way, they were going to pay the same amount whether the stands were full or not.

I think that works a lot better for pro baseball than college football. A big crowd makes college football more exciting to watch for most folks , it would seem to me.

 

[Coloradojacket]

I have admitted that I don't have actual information. Most if not all of those contracts are confidential. However, it isn't just blind speculation. I have seen the tactics of contracts ending a significant times for sports, and ESPN directing people to switch to other providers myself. I have seen many media about television and business provide estimates of the per subscriber costs. I posted one of those earlier in this thread from Standard & Poor's. They estimate that the ESPN channel gets an average of $8.97 per subscriber.

ESPN charts streaming growth, but cable network still Disney's No. 1 sports star

Given ESPN's strong linear economics and rights transfer issues, Walt Disney CEO Bob Chapek said transitioning ESPN in the direct-to-consumer arena is

www.spglobal.com

Again, I was in management at DISH and Comcast and you are absolutely correct. Charlie Ergen would try to deal a better deal with ESPN/ABC and would lose every time. And now ESPN gets above 10 dollars per subscriber. They also used to fight with Fox but they are not so much a player anymore.

 

[MusicalBuzz]

I have admitted that I don't have actual information. Most if not all of those contracts are confidential. However, it isn't just blind speculation. I have seen the tactics of contracts ending a significant times for sports, and ESPN directing people to switch to other providers myself.

I certainly recognize that it is a great black box re ESPN and finances involved in all collegiate athletics. I would just respectfully point out that the frequency and seeming authority you project on the subject suggests actual firsthand account, though perhaps I missed the admission some pages ago.

It would be fascinating for most of us to see the actual contracts and negotiation transcripts. I’m certain it’s another thing that separates us from UGa(G)! Although Cox is not involved in major media markets (except….. we’ve heard of Gainesville, FL? Perhaps Macon? Or New Orleans?) I will report what I can find out.

 

[WreckinGT]

For everyone that keeps saying GOR prevents GT (or any P5 school) from going anywhere until 2036, you'll find this interesting. When the person writing the biggest checks is also the entity playing chess in the backgrounds with member schools to benefit them and NOT the conferences, all bets are off. In the end, the lawyers are the real winners:

Welp. This whole thing makes a little more sense now.

 

[orientalnc]

Reaction Out West: Realignment May Pose Challenges to CFP Expansion

The Pac-12 is staking its own claim in the realignment war, promising a response to the SEC's imminent growth.

www.si.com

 

[orientalnc]

Big 12 Issues Cease and Desist to ESPN Over Realignment

Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby claims ESPN tried to encourage another conference to poach some of the Big 12's remaining teams.

www.si.com

 

[MusicalBuzz]

Again, I was in management at DISH and Comcast and you are absolutely correct. Charlie Ergen would try to deal a better deal with ESPN/ABC and would lose every time. And now ESPN gets above 10 dollars per subscriber. They also used to fight with Fox but they are not so much a player anymore.

Right! There is really little negotiation room with ESPN because for too many it’s considered essential. It’s also why Comcast launched its sports network. Aside from the exact number, it’s why ESPN is offered starting Preferred package and why it is significantly more than lower tiers. Now… where all the various Conference channels factor is a different matter.

Do we know what ESPN’s business model is re subscribers vs ad revenue? Whatever it is I guess we know it isn’t going so well.

Anyhoo, to refocus to the thread.. it’s been suggested that the next realignment/added member is subject to its related “media market”, eg West Virginia = Morganton, or Auburn=Birmingham. I’ve challenged this on the lines of the “brand” is more important. And I would add competitive matchup to that.

I also submit that B1G adding Rutgers and Maryland was less about adding TV market but increasing membership. (And would love to see what real revenue impact UM and RU has had).

But B1G apparently has the largest revenue share of any conference and it along with its notable football ”brands” would be a compelling membership.

 

[Techster]

Now apply this to the ACC:

GT/UVA/UNC/Duke/*ND --> B1G

Clemson/FSU/VT/NC State --> SEC

Everyone else --> SOL

There's always a way out of contracts...because lawyers.

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

Well, it should be easy to prove if the remaining members cooperate. They can turn over whatever evidence they have of ESPN en

Now apply this to the ACC:

GT/UVA/UNC/Duke/*ND --> B1G

Clemson/FSU/VT/NC State --> SEC

Everyone else --> SOL

There's always a way out of contracts...because lawyers.

Yep, this is the only way I see the ACC collapsing soon.

 

[Techster]

Well, it should be easy to prove if the remaining members cooperate. They can turn over whatever evidence they have of ESPN en

Yep, this is the only way I see the ACC collapsing soon.

I would honestly like to see the ACC/B1G/PAC12/Remaining Big12 all commit to never playing the SEC again and let them beat each other up in a semi professional league (because that's what the SEC is going to become). We'll have our football playoffs, NCAA basketball tournament, College World Series, etc without the SEC. Those leagues would never schedule SEC teams for anything because the SEC would be playing by a different set of rules.

I think after about a decade, I'm not sure the SEC would be unique anymore. The "SEC" aura comes from it winning national championships against teams from other leagues. Now it's just the same 16-20 teams just playing each other with no possibility of testing themselves against other teams because they've been frozen out.

 

[MusicalBuzz]

I would honestly like to see the ACC/B1G/PAC12/Remaining Big12 all commit to never playing the SEC again and let them beat each other up in a semi professional league (because that's what the SEC is going to become). We'll have our football playoffs, NCAA basketball tournament, College World Series, etc without the SEC. Those leagues would never schedule SEC teams for anything because the SEC would be playing by a different set of rules.

I think after about a decade, I'm not sure the SEC would be unique anymore. The "SEC" aura comes from it winning national championships against teams from other leagues. Now it's just the same 16-20 teams just playing each other with no possibility of testing themselves against other teams because they've been frozen out.

Bold strategy

 

[Techster]

Bold strategy

The new SEC-less super league would already have a sponsor:

 

[WreckinGT]

This makes no sense unless ESPN is pushing for it behind the scenes. It should be AAC schools going to the Big 12, not Big 12 schools going to the AAC. If it happens that way though, ESPN, OU, and TX, and probably the SEC stand to save millions of dollars.

 

[Southpawmac]

This makes no sense unless ESPN is pushing for it behind the scenes. It should be AAC schools going to the Big 12, not Big 12 schools going to the AAC. If it happens that way though, ESPN, OU, and TX, and probably the SEC stand to save millions of dollars.

It makes perfect sense when you know that ESPN is the puppet master behind all this. ESPN owns all the AAC TV rights. ESPN does not own all the Big 12 rights. So the AAC absorbing the 8 Big 12 schools not only saves ESPN loads of money in exit fees and GOR money, but also increases the value of their existing property. AAC can’t sign a new deal with Fox now that Fox no longer has the Big 12, they can only renegotiate their deal with ESPN.

 

[GT_EE78]

Reaction Out West: Realignment May Pose Challenges to CFP Expansion

The Pac-12 is staking its own claim in the realignment war, promising a response to the SEC's imminent growth.

www.si.com

excellent idea to scrap the 12 team CFP in response to this.
I don't know who gets to decide but hope it's not secret committees and secret working groups.
I can't imagine that conferences don't get a vote.(anyone know??)
.
8 team CFP would be better at this point.
6 conf champs plus 2 wildcards. No byes!
(don't let them destroy CFP like they did with college BB conf tournys- not minimizing #byes is ridiculous)
this limits SEC to 3 max and at least there's competition for the WC's.
maybe even a rule to limit WC's to 1 per conference, but i'm ok without that.