Expansion Talk 2021

[MusicalBuzz]

Friends, the B1G adding us + UNC, UVA, Duke + Notre Dame (where it belongs because it’s in friggin’ Indiana) and minus Rutgers … THIS is a worthy conference.

 

[Pointer]

Friends, the B1G adding us + UNC, UVA, Duke + Notre Dame (where it belongs because it’s in friggin’ Indiana) and minus Rutgers … THIS is a worthy conference.

I'd rather PSU come to ACC. If they are added and ND joins them, suddenly ACC is sitting pretty. Solid Football teams, solid basketball teams, and that way small schools don't get left behind (assuming B1G declines, but doesn't implode).

 

[MusicalBuzz]

I'd rather PSU come to ACC. If they are added and ND joins them, suddenly ACC is sitting pretty. Solid Football teams, solid basketball teams, and that way small schools don't get left behind (assuming B1G declines, but doesn't implode).

That’s a good call. I’m probably swayed by weariness of Clemson and a lot of mediocre ACC brands. Seems easier (and profitable) to move to B1G + ND. Toss in Duke for the added academic repute (whatever that means in football). Would not expect B1G to decline..too many brands for that.

 

[Pointer]

That’s a good call. I’m probably swayed by weariness of Clemson and a lot of mediocre ACC brands. Seems easier (and profitable) to move to B1G + ND. Toss in Duke for the added academic repute (whatever that means in football). Would not expect B1G to decline..too many brands for that.

There's an interesting angle though, and it was discussed in the video I linked a little while ago. It seems that ESPN really is playing puppet master behind all of this.

As far as Penn State to ACC, that would work to their advantage quite well b/c B1G is tied to Fox Sports. It would be a third way that ESPN wins through all of this (BIG 12 teams to AAC, TX&OU to SEC, and now PSU to ACC as ESPN is tied to all three of those conferences).

It is quite amazing how during the last realignment, ESPN couldn't cover it fast enough, and this time, its an article about once a week.

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

I don't think we're getting Penn State but for fun, PODS could be:

GT, Clemson, Miami, FSU
UNC, Duke, NC State, Wake
VT, UVA, Louisville, Syracuse
ND, Pittsburgh, Penn State, BC

 

[MusicalBuzz]

Reaching out to @BilldGopher for perspective.

What is your understanding and thoughts about B1G expansion re GT and how do you feel about concerted redemption against the 2018 debacle?

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

I'd rather PSU come to ACC. If they are added and ND joins them, suddenly ACC is sitting pretty. Solid Football teams, solid basketball teams, and that way small schools don't get left behind (assuming B1G declines, but doesn't implode).

I like this scenario the best. With a four team only playoff, ND may consider this.
If the Big 12 ceases, then conference champs only.

 

[slugboy]

The ACC seems to still have a large exit fee and a 15-year grant of rights. I’ve seen a number posted of $52 million, but the last I saw written was 3 years of conference distributions, plus at least a 10-month notice of intent to leave. That’s about $33.6 million * 3 = $100.8 million.

Maryland owed $51 million when they left about a decade ago, and the ACC settled for $31 million.

However, the broadcast rights last into the middle of the next decade. If Clemson or FSU went to another conference, all their home games would be on an ACC contract. There’s the idea of looking for a loophole, but the main loophole I see is spending the next 15 years with no home games, and I think a good lawyer would find a way to attack that evasion.

Another option is for the receiving conference to pay a full distribution even if they don’t get half the TV revenue for a team.

The ACC is the hardest conference to leave. If a team or teams do leave, they’ll need a way to make up the 15 years of revenue and the penalties, or to evade them. Clemson is the riskiest team.

From our legal past, I’d say GT is about the least likely team to have a good escape hatch to find another conference.

Clemson football: What it would take financially to leave the ACC

There have been rumors flying about a possible connection between Clemson football and the SEC, but there are obstacles standing in the way.

rubbingtherock.com

 

[orientalnc]

The ACC seems to still have a large exit fee and a 15-year grant of rights. I’ve seen a number posted of $52 million, but the last I saw written was 3 years of conference distributions, plus at least a 10-month notice of intent to leave. That’s about $33.6 million * 3 = $100.8 million.

Maryland owed $51 million when they left about a decade ago, and the ACC settled for $31 million.

However, the broadcast rights last into the middle of the next decade. If Clemson or FSU went to another conference, all their home games would be on an ACC contract. There’s the idea of looking for a loophole, but the main loophole I see is spending the next 15 years with no home games, and I think a good lawyer would find a way to attack that evasion.

Another option is for the receiving conference to pay a full distribution even if they don’t get half the TV revenue for a team.

The ACC is the hardest conference to leave. If a team or teams do leave, they’ll need a way to make up the 15 years of revenue and the penalties, or to evade them. Clemson is the riskiest team.

From our legal past, I’d say GT is about the least likely team to have a good escape hatch to find another conference.

Clemson football: What it would take financially to leave the ACC

There have been rumors flying about a possible connection between Clemson football and the SEC, but there are obstacles standing in the way.

rubbingtherock.com

This is a solid POV. There are potential avenues of escape, but none are likely:

1-The ACC mutually agrees to a merger with another conference.
2-The ACC members agree to disband the conference.
3-A few teams decide the conference cannot sustain their departure and take a chance on things falling apart.
4-Some other odd and unlikely circumstance.

 

[gville_jacket]

This is a solid POV. There potential avenues of escape, but none are likely:

1-The ACC mutually agrees to a merger with another conference.
2-The ACC members agree to disband the conference.
3-A few teams decide the conference cannot sustain their departure and take a chance on things falling apart.
4-Some other odd and unlikely circumstance.

Or ACC tries to be aggressive and add more members and renegotiate the TV deal. I'd say that's as likely as us just straight merging with someone else. I think the most likely scenario is the ACC sits around, does nothing and tries to see what all happens elsewhere.

 

[MWBATL]

tbh, so far the vast majority of comments on message boards have been way wrong with regard to what gas happened so far. Many said Texas A&M and Arkansas would oppose Texas and OU....nope. Many said other SEC schools would oppose the move. Nope. Many said that Texas and OU might just be bluffing to fish for the best possible deal. Nope.

I understand speculation can be fun. But we all seem so far disconnected from the reality of whatever is happening right now...I am gonna sit back and eat my popcorn and watch, because it seems like anything could happen right about now.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Don’t you know there are hundreds of private conversations going on that we don’t know anything about! I suspect there will be an occasional leak by someone trying to influence an outcome but the real story is behind the “dance of the seven veils” right now.

The suspense is killing me.

 

[orientalnc]

tbh, so far the vast majority of comments on message boards have been way wrong with regard to what gas happened so far. Many said Texas A&M and Arkansas would oppose Texas and OU....nope. Many said other SEC schools would oppose the move. Nope. Many said that Texas and OU might just be bluffing to fish for the best possible deal. Nope.

I understand speculation can be fun. But we all seem so far disconnected from the reality of whatever is happening right now...I am gonna sit back and eat my popcorn and watch, because it seems like anything could happen right about now.

Other than having fun on message boards or arguing with your neighbors, there really isn't much else to do but wait and see what happens. I am on the road in my RV and checking the board more frequently than my wife likes, so I am just as antsy as anyone. The reality is that we will likely have to wait for quite a while before the next shoe drops.

 

[Jmonty71]

I will say this.... I am 100% against these power conferences... At this point, you might as well call the SEC just a NFL minor league. I don't feel like this is going to equal competitive play within the landscape. It's already tilted towards the SEC. As for any teams joining the ACC? I think the ACC needs to focus on Clemson not getting absorbed in the SEC. I am not too sure the ACC survives this new movement. I may be wrong... But, if FSU and Clemson leave, you might as well say goodbye to the ACC....

 

[IM79]

It seems that ESPN really is playing puppet master behind all of this.

I think this is real story in the expansion saga. The ACC should just sell itself to ESPN and let ESPN own it like they own most of the bowl games.

Seriously, if ESPN can find a way to make large amounts of money off the ACC TV rights in the future (with declining cable/sat TV/streaming packages seemingly here to stay), the ACC will do OK. If not, who knows what the future holds.

Could this be the SEC endgame:

Grab as many of the largest, most rabid, biggest spending fan bases now. In 10 or 15 years cable, sat TV and streaming service packages are played out. Attendance at stadiums has declined and bottomed out. That's the time to start a PPV system and make all the people that can't be bothered to go to a game pay $10-30 per game on pay per view. Like most boxing matches are done now. $10 per game for the Vandy and Duke type games, maybe $30 or $50 for the Bama vs Auburn type games.

 

[WreckinGT]

tbh, so far the vast majority of comments on message boards have been way wrong with regard to what gas happened so far. Many said Texas A&M and Arkansas would oppose Texas and OU....nope. Many said other SEC schools would oppose the move. Nope. Many said that Texas and OU might just be bluffing to fish for the best possible deal. Nope.

I understand speculation can be fun. But we all seem so far disconnected from the reality of whatever is happening right now...I am gonna sit back and eat my popcorn and watch, because it seems like anything could happen right about now.

Texas A&M was blatantly against the move. Arkansas may have been also, that's a bit unknown. The SEC pretty much always has a unanimous vote though. With them there either isn't going to be a vote or its going to be 14-0.

 

[slugboy]

TA&M was fiercely against TX joining the SEC until they found out that they’d be the only “no” vote and there were rumbles of repercussions.

 

[Techster]

ESPN is playing God right now. I think they want a viable alternative to the NFL and the NBA, and the SEC mega conference full of brands just might be it. FSU and Clemson being mentioned by multiple sources to the SEC is no coincidence, and the AD leaving FSU basically said FSU will do what's in the best interest of the program. The only people who don't see what's coming with all of the schools jockeying for position are fans who keep waxing nostalgic about tradition and regional rivalries. None of that matters anymore because a school's brand supercedes that. Who doesn't like watching Ohio State play Alabama? Or OU play LSU? How about USC playing Florida? Texas playing Michigan? Clemson playing Tennessee? None of them have historical rivalries with each other, but the strength of their brands are going to make a LOT of people tune in. That is what matters to ESPN...and other media networks. I think ESPN is tired of dealing and cowtowing to the NFL, and paying a LOT of money.

David Pollack mentioned that the SEC moves are likely in response to eventually pulling away from the NCAA altogether. The NCAA is not equipped to deal with the NIL and the business potential for both the SA and the schools. NCAA dragged their behinds trying to dodge NIL altogether insteading of accepting it and making sure all member schools abide by the same guidelines. Now it's a free for all, and schools are seeing that the NCAA is outdated and not prepared to help them with what's to come. The NCAA was useful during the "amatuer model" years, but that time is passing...as is the usefulness of the NCAA.

If you still believe Grant of Rights will prevent schools from moving, just pay attention to what's going on in the Big 12...and the ACC soon. If enough schools in a conference fight it, then it becomes worthless. Lawyers and giant media networks like ESPN will find a way for assets (schools) to move to other places that's in the best interest of making more money.

 

[Technut1990]

At this point it seems these business deals which give media rights to others or call for sharing within a conference are bad deals. We essentially have schools who could see millions of more dollars than what they currently have, locked into deals that are less profitable. I don’t understand how these teams are locking themselves up with no escape clause. These deals seem to ignore future growth of individual schools, which to me is odd given growth is the goal of everyone of them.

id never sign a deal that binds me until 2035 knowing I’m tying myself down and essentially barring myself from any deals that might come later which are more appealing and beneficial.

$52 million to get out of something is Ridiculous

 

[Technut1990]

The funny thing is that if the SEC replaces the NCAA as the king maker, eventually it will come under the same criticism. The SEC will adopt rules that bind other schools, block others from threatening their power and put in legal language that try to control everything.

in 20 years everyone will hate the SEC