Expansion Talk 2021

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

That's because they were always in different conferences. But they're in neighboring states, so looking ahead it isn't hard to see they would become natural rivals. WVU will be at home in the ACC.

Notre Dame and Louisville are in neighboring states. There's zero rivalry between them in any sport with ND joining the ACC.

The triangle schools aren't rivals with Virginia Tech or Clemson (outside of the Clemson-NC State textile bowl thing). You're reaching badly here. WVU and UVA have pretty much nothing in common

 

[GoJacketsInRaleigh]

What about a round robin of all the conference champions the next year? Gives entertaining match ups and allows for a potential changing of the guard.
ACC champ vs Big 10 champ and PAC 12 champ
Big 10 vs ACC and PAC 12
PAC 12 vs ACC and Big 10
Set one game up first of the year. One mid year and one end of year…

Three games against two opponents.

 

[FredJacket]

There's always a diamond in the rough. Then there's West Virginia. You can polish that turd all you want, but they will still be the fan base that burns couches.

Burning couches is the threshold? Well scratch Ga Tech fan base, then.

 

[yeti92]

Those of you who think academics play no parts in conference affiliation are very mistaken. There is a reason no B1G school would ever leave the conference for the SEC, and its because of academics and research, not sports. Member schools share information and collaborate heavily, which brings in research dollars that absolutely dwarf anything they would hope to get from football.

But whether you care about academics or not, WV brings nothing to the table to increase the ACC's value and per school payout, so they aren't being invited.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Nah if we lure ND we can add Tulane or something to balance that out and add that market place, would be worth alot more than WV and it would be adding a game in NO for people. Navy would work as well but the ACC won't go for an option school and service academy not while memories of paul Johnson linger anywhere. Tulane i think is rated in teh top 50 schools nationally , Tulane is also an AAU school. Are they forever going to be second fiddle to LSU in the state of LA, yep. But get into that market.

Navy would be a carrot for ND. The option wouldn't even factor in. The ACC is far more worried about academic profile. Otherwise, WVU wouldn't be begging right now...

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

yes there is a finite amount of money that would be paid as things are. How have you identified the upper limit though ?

For one, we can already see the plateauing in the way sports deals are done. With the current rate of cord cutting, networks have less money to spend on product. While there is still room to grow, exponential growth won't be around much longer.

Other businesses excel in one or two products they lack the ability to merge without consuming one another. In the end if Coke and Pepsi merged the final product would be Coke or Pepsi, they couldn’t capture or hold the other consumer. In football the product gets better With a “merger”. The SEC can capture and hold The Penn State fans, Ohio State fans and the Michigan fans because those teams don’t actually merge away, their value remains alive and it would come to the SEC ( as it would any other conference ). I mean do you think The ACC would get Approx the same TV contract if those teams joined them ?

No, but it would take a major miracle to get any of those schools. Since getting ANY school with any real ability to shift the TV needle is remote at best, the argument still stands.

Their is only a combining of the people who are following Not the actual product. Right now if The SEC had a following of 30 million those 30 don’t go away if others join. Each team brings its own fans. If fans = followers and followers = viewers the then viewership value to ESPN or whoever televised the conference would increase, so would advertisement value. Advertisers alone would pay more because they are reaching the additional fans over and above the 30 million. Any network that can get its hands on a Alabama vs Ohio State game or Michigan vs Georgia, locked in for 5 years in a regular schedule would pay big because they would be adding more value to the TV package.

Fanbase size alone doesn't matter. It's the economic impact of those fans. Take WVU for example. WV ranks 50th of all 50 states in income level and 40th in population. There aren't a lot of people in the state and they are the poorest state in the nation. Their fan base packs 50, 000 into a stadium, but outside of that 50-75k, the drop-off is steep. Factory schools with hundreds of thousands of rabid fans are what drive the TV needle. Those mergers, like adding UT and OU to the SEC make sense.

I agree growth plateaus but we ain’t at the plateau point in college football. The plateau point for a conference would be when that conference has all of the top drawing teams, as long as a conference can improve so can it’s finances. Do you not think adding those 3 teams would increase the size, quality and value of the SEC substantially ?

why do businesses add “extra large” to their offerings ? It’s because people pay more when they think they are getting more.

We have indeed entered the plateau point of college football as a business. You are likely to see a huge deal for the SEC because of the magnitude of their expansion, but that will come at a net loss of money paid to the Big XII. New money isn't moving into the enterprise, but rather current money is being reapportioned. There is the possibility that the new Playoff deal would raise the $ total, but only if inventory is raised. The current projection is 3x the money for the new deal, but there will be 3x the teams added to the playoff in that projection. You have to increase inventory to raise revenue at this point. The days of just throwing more money at the same product are drawing to a close. People will pay for value, but only if the price is competitive.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

The entire WV topic is totally inconsistent and at times displays the arrogance that I think plagues the ACC. Academics and sports are two separate things. They don’t complete a mathematical equation in order to score a TD. Half of the people here dont think WV holds academic candle to The ACC ( what’s that got to do with football or any other sport ? ), A quarter don’t think they bring TV value and yet another quarter say they think conference realignment is about eyeballs. It can’t be all of these. If it’s eyeballs WV is the 3rd or 4th largest school that would be in The ACC, if it’s really an academic standard then the ACC needs to get out of the football conversations, because they really aren’t even trying to compete at any serious level with the SEC. Finally if it’s about WV not being upper crust enough for the almighty Louisville’s and North Carolina’s then maybe The ACC should just commit to a hostile takeover of The Ivy League and just shut up.

heres another point, IF ND said tomorrow that they would come IF WV was allowed in everyone of you would become WV fans

Interesting take considering that the Alliance stressed academics as a major reason for the new partnership. My issue with WVU isn't with their academics, it's the fact that I don't think there are enough fans to drive the needle.

 

[BCJacket]

The argument for a WVU or UCF in the ACC has to do with the future landscape of sports media. As I understand it:

ESPN pays the ACC a base fee of $240MM a year for the rights to the "top tier" games. This is their right of first choice of x many games per week to air on the national ESPNs and ABC. This is undervalued relative to other conferences's broadcast Network deals. The SEC's upcoming deal with Disney was reported to be 'mid-$300's' for fewer games, before the additions of UT and OK. The ACC agreed to that as part of the negotiation to entice Disney to partner on the 'linear' ACC Network. Which is where the real potential money is: the ACC schools get a percentage of the ACCN revenue. The B1G and SEC networks have an advantage of a head start and more time to have negotiated carriage deals (this is a big part of the payout discrepancy). They also started before the shift to cord-cutting and streaming really took off. The new ACC commissioner, Jim Phillips, has been publicly clear that getting the ACCN on more services is one of his top priorities. Comcast is the major cable provider in much of the ACC's geographic footprint and doesn't carry it. Getting that deal done will be a big boost to the ACCN's revenue. More eyeballs = more ad dollars. Getting the ACCN on more new-media streaming platforms will be important moving forward.

The only way to really renegotiate the $240MM base fee would be to add a school like ND that really ESPN wants. ND and the ACC could negotiate ESPN tough to bring ND into the GOR. Otherwise, they could sell the ND media rights to NBC, Youtube, some Chinese company that wants in on American media markets... There's not another school available that would really bring ESPN to the negotiating table.

For the ACCN, the ACC was late to the game and fighting the last war. Launching, just as streaming and a la carte programing become more the norm than big Cable packages. The ACC needs to think about what will drive revenue in 2025, not 2015. In the future, it's going to boil down to who's willing to pay $15/month for the add-on package that includes ACCN to whatever streaming service. Wake and Duke just don't have that many alumni or fans. WVU, UCF, aren't traditional powerhouses. They don't move the needle on whether Comcast feels like their subscribers are going to demand the ACCN or cut the cord. But they have big alumni bases and potential. Programs rise and fall. There's absolutely no reason UCF couldn't compete for (real) national championships in 10 years with P4 money for their program. WVU has been a competitive program at times. You can talk up academics and prestige all you want, but to quote Animal House: "We need the dues!"

Yes, WVU has a rabid fanbase, but not the hundreds of thousands UT or tOSU have. But, UT and tOSU aren't available for the ACC to add. It's a question of the best option(s) available.

 

[RonJohn]

Fanbase size alone doesn't matter. It's the economic impact of those fans. Take WVU for example. WV ranks 50th of all 50 states in income level and 40th in population. There aren't a lot of people in the state and they are the poorest state in the nation. Their fan base packs 50, 000 into a stadium, but outside of that 50-75k, the drop-off is steep. Factory schools with hundreds of thousands of rabid fans are what drive the TV needle. Those mergers, like adding UT and OU to the SEC make sense.

Not directed at you, but for the people that think WVU is a money generating sports program, they rank 40th in USA Today's NCAA Finances chart. That puts them ahead of three ACC schools, but behind five. (Many private schools do not provide their economic information.) The Big12 has higher media payouts than the ACC. If you deduct the difference between Big12 and ACC media payouts, then WVU only generates more revenue than two ACC programs. Any belief that they would suddenly add another $50 million to ACC revenue is ludicrous.

 

[Richard7125]

I think the "alliance" is interesting. IMO this is being driven more by the Big10/Fox to counter the influence of the SEC/ESPN on establishing the overall framework of the playoffs. I can understand why the Pac12 is in the alliance, but the ACC's inclusion seems forced to me (ie they need to be part of something or they will be left out of the party). Sure, the academic similarities are real, but I think that is more convenient than anything else.

Playoff expansion is going to happen; there is simply too much money at stake for it not to. The original plan did not include a limit on the number of teams from any specific conference, but I will be shocked if there is not a limit in the future plan. I also think there will be some type of shared media arrangement to generate more total dollars (between ESPN, FOX, CBS, NBC, plus steaming services like Amazon, ATT, Discovery+, etc).

 

[jacketup]

People don't remember--and I don't remember all the details--but if the VA legislature hadn't gotten involved VT wouldn't be in ACC. They didn't bring much to the ACC, but they are the biggest school in a populous state with lots of eyeballs. WVU would bring less. It's not going to happen.

The Alliance will package attractive games for the networks in order to bid against the SEC. That's the direction this is going, and not expansion for the sake of expansion. CBS still has the SEC 3:30 games--not ABC/ESPN/Disney, who would like to have better games to compete in that time slot. The Alliance could make that happen.

 

[WreckinGT]

From Dennis Dodds CBS article today

The risk for ESPN is losing all or part of a college sports property that is approaching the NCAA Tournament in annual value ($1 billion).

"I think there's a good chance we'll just run out the term [of the ESPN contract]," said one CFP source involved in the expansion process. "ESPN can sit on its rights. You have to get them to agree to participate and allow somebody else in. That was always a long shot."

‘Those in charge are getting past the point of fan outrage if the four-team bracket plays out over the next five years. In that time, the original $7.2 billion deal could be worth three times that amount. ‘

to those who think the value of College football has a plateau, this is just The CFP over 5 years, as it is now. 7.2 Billion value x 3 = 21.6 Billion in the new contract. We ain’t there yet.

He worded that poorly. The 7.2 billion was over 12 years. Roughly 600 million a year, which includes some contracts with the major bowl games. Triple that would be around 1.8 billion a year. Some have estimated that it could get up to 2 billion.

CFP expansion could increase annual revenue to $2 billion

A new College Football Playoff with triple the number of teams involved could bring in three times as much money to...

www.usatoday.com

 

[WreckinGT]

People don't remember--and I don't remember all the details--but if the VA legislature hadn't gotten involved VT wouldn't be in ACC. They didn't bring much to the ACC, but they are the biggest school in a populous state with lots of eyeballs. WVU would bring less. It's not going to happen.

The Alliance will package attractive games for the networks in order to bid against the SEC. That's the direction this is going, and not expansion for the sake of expansion. CBS still has the SEC 3:30 games--not ABC/ESPN/Disney, who would like to have better games to compete in that time slot. The Alliance could make that happen.

CBS lost the SEC deal. The SEC 3:30 games are moving to ESPN/ABC in 2024.

 

[stech81]

Those of you who think academics play no parts in conference affiliation are very mistaken. There is a reason no B1G school would ever leave the conference for the SEC, and its because of academics and research, not sports. Member schools share information and collaborate heavily, which brings in research dollars that absolutely dwarf anything they would hope to get from football.

But whether you care about academics or not, WV brings nothing to the table to increase the ACC's value and per school payout, so they aren't being invited.

I reckon the real question is if the Big 12 - 2 and soon to be -2 more would the breakup of them be good for ESPN and maybe help the ACC in some way. It could free up the money ESPN pays the Big 12 -2 -2 which could mean that ESPN could increase the revenue to the conferences that add teams from the Big 12 -2-2 . Or it could mean that ESPN just keeps that money.
Like I was told as a kid when my allowance was a $1 a week and I asked my dad for $5 a week he told me if I give you $5 then you will ask for $10 a week so to keep you from asking for $10 I'll just keep it at $1 ,now go cut the grass, I told him I didn't want to cut the grass for that $1 , He told me go get his belt. I thought about it and said I don't have the time to get your belt I need to cut the grass.

 

[bobongo]

Agree to disagree. Their easiest degree program available to athletes has to be significantly easier than anything other ACC programs offer with their academic ranking. If WV athletes don't need to worry about actually making progress/passing classes to play they have an advantage

They have to follow the same rules on academic progress everyone else has to follow. Same thing. And for the most part, the same basic degree programs are offered at all the universities in the ACC, Tech notwithstanding.

 

[jacketup]

CBS lost the SEC deal. The SEC 3:30 games are moving to ESPN/ABC in 2024.

Interesting. Now the Alliance has something to sell to CBS to combat Disney. Works either way. CBS is also working hard to promote its sports network.

 

[Jerry the Jacket]

SEC is now the GBC. Greedy Bastards Conference. They really have lost their connection to the Southeast USA.

Go Jackets!

 

[bobongo]

Time and traditions change…

By their very nature, traditions can change only very, very slowly. That's why they're "traditions". Cavalierly tossing aside our in-state rival would be a travesty of college football. It hurt us when we lost our rivalries with Auburn and Tennessee and Alabama. We really were never able to replicate that in the ACC. It would be beyond foolish to chuck our rivalry with Georgia.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Agreed that dropping the uga would be foolish. The issue is they may well be forced to drop us soon. I can see the SEC getting petty if they don't get their way.

 

[RonJohn]

Agreed that dropping the uga would be foolish. The issue is they may well be forced to drop us soon. I can see the SEC getting petty if they don't get their way.

I don't see a separation just from not getting what they want. With the NCAA apparently falling apart, I could easily see a situation in which the SEC decides to separate football from academics and have a professional league that is only affiliated with the school. I don't see the Pac12, Big10, nor ACC doing that. The SEC would need more than just 16 teams. I think many of the remaining Big12 teams (including WVU) would follow along with that. That would end up with an association of universities playing against each other and a semi-pro league playing against each other. If things ever go to that point, it wouldn't really make sense for the two groups to play games against each other except maybe some exhibition games.