Expansion Talk 2021

[RonJohn]

Making the Case for WVU to the ACC

Since Texas and Oklahoma announced their coming move to the SEC, realignment talk has accelerated, we are making the case for WVU to the ACC.

lastwordonsports.com

From the article:

In a world filled with rapid-fire change that threatens to leave behind many of those fans (who still watch games . . . for now) who grew up watching more regionally-focused college football. One way the powers-that-be can combat that change and offer “stability” to long-time fans is to renew dead rivalries.

West Virginia has played 104 games against Pitt, 71 games against Syracuse, 52 games against Virginia Tech, 33 games against Boston College, 23 games against Virginia, and 20 games against Miami. Not each of those games represents a rivalry, per se, but they do offer compelling storylines and familiarity that can swim against the current.

That is a sports case. It doesn't add immediate revenue. It might maybe add revenue IF a rivalry does develop and IF several of those teams are constantly in the top 20. Immediately, the ACC's revenue per team will go down.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

What evidence do you have that WVU would actually add money to each schools take home? I haven't seen anything that would lead me to believe that adding WVU would increase ESPN's revenue by $30-35 million. The great majority of ESPN's revenue is from subscription fees according to reports from people who watch that business. On the order of 80-80% of their revenue. Adding WVU doesn't add a region to the ACC's home base, so won't increase the ACCN by any significant amount. Six or seven random home WVU games are not worth $35 million to ESPN.

Inflation. The $ amount would go up. Everything costs more now than in 2012. Also, I have faith that we would manage to negotiate better this time around.

I just don't think it will go up enough to matter much...

 

[bobongo]

That is a sports case. It doesn't add immediate revenue. It might maybe add revenue IF a rivalry does develop and IF several of those teams are constantly in the top 20. Immediately, the ACC's revenue per team will go down.

You're pointedly ignoring the fact that if a school is added, the entire contract will be re-negotiated. Many say the contract was poorly negotiated the first time around. WVU is the best currently available option to add.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

You're pointedly ignoring the fact that if a school is added, the entire contract will be re-negotiated. Many say the contract was poorly negotiated the first time around. WVU is the best currently available option to add.

No. He's not. Here is the math: Last years revenue for the ACC $496, 000, 000 = per school of $35,000,000. The increase in the revenue stream would have to be greater than $35,000,000 just to break even. Most experts seem to believe that WVU by itself isn't a big enough carrot to get ESPN to come off the extra dough, which means that they'd be a net drain per school on revenue.

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article253041348.html

"West Virginia? Sure, it’d make for some compelling games against Pitt, but the Mountaineers are hardly a national brand, and it’s difficult to imagine ESPN executives rushing to redo its ACC contract should the conference add West Virginia."

 

[bobongo]

No. He's not. Here is the math: Last years revenue for the ACC $496, 000, 000 = per school of $35,000,000. The increase in the revenue stream would have to be greater than $35,000,000 just to break even. Most experts seem to believe that WVU by itself isn't a big enough carrot to get ESPN to come off the extra dough, which means that they'd be a net drain per school on revenue.

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article253041348.html

"West Virginia? Sure, it’d make for some compelling games against Pitt, but the Mountaineers are hardly a national brand, and it’s difficult to imagine ESPN executives rushing to redo its ACC contract should the conference add West Virginia."

If the contract was poorly negotiated to begin with, adding a new school - any school - would enable the ACC to renegotiate it. The "revenue stream" is dependent on that poorly negotiated contract which could be re-negotiated in its entirety if a new school is added.
For all its faults, WVU is the best currently available option to add.

It isn't that hard to grok.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

If the contract was poorly negotiated to begin with, adding a new school - any school - would enable the ACC to renegotiate it. The "revenue stream" is dependent on that poorly negotiated contract which could be re-negotiated in its entirety if a new school is added.
For all its faults, WVU is the best currently available option to add.

It isn't that hard to grok.

And yet the article I linked above states that WVU is not likely to persuade ESPN to come off more money. WVU is the best option, but that doesn't say much. At this point, WVU is one of the last remaining girls in the bar near closing time. The only reason you take her home is if you're desperate. I don't know that the ACC is that desperate yet.

 

[bobongo]

And yet the article I linked above states that WVU is not likely to persuade ESPN to come off more money. WVU is the best option, but that doesn't say much. At this point, WVU is one of the last remaining girls in the bar near closing time. The only reason you take her home is if you're desperate. I don't know that the ACC is that desperate yet.

Maybe the article is accurate, and maybe it isn't taking everything into consideration.

If, as many are saying, the original contract was poorly negotiated and rights to ACC games are worth more than ESPN is paying, re-negotiation of the entire contract should produce a better deal. I don't know exactly how the contract is written and I'm not a contract lawyer, but it seems to me the addition of a new team could trigger a start from scratch re-negotiation. So again, it's not what WVU brings per se, it's that their addition would trigger a re-negotiation. And it's my contention that they are the current best available option.

 

[yeti92]

WVU is the best option, but that doesn't say much. At this point, WVU is one of the last remaining girls in the bar near closing time. The only reason you take her home is if you're desperate. I don't know that the ACC is that desperate yet.

And since its WV, she's also your sister.

I think what Bobongo is getting at is that by adding any team we are free to renegotiate with ESPN, or negotiate a better deal with FOX/CBS/whoever if we don't like ESPN's deal and someone else is willing to offer more. The question is, IS someone willing to offer more?

 

[TomOReilly]

I thought I read the Alliance is still supporting the BIG12. If I am right, this would mean poaching WVU may not be consistent to that statement.

 

[RonJohn]

And since its WV, she's also your sister.

I think what Bobongo is getting at is that by adding any team we are free to renegotiate with ESPN, or negotiate a better deal with FOX/CBS/whoever if we don't like ESPN's deal and someone else is willing to offer more. The question is, IS someone willing to offer more?

I haven't read the contract. However, I seriously doubt that ESPN's lawyers would allow the contract to say that adding any team would make the contract null and void. I seriously doubt there is such a condition that the ACC can shop the media rights to someone else. More likely than that is that if another team is added the rights for games at that school are not automatically added. If that were the case, the ACC could try to sell WVU's home games to someone else. They could use the threat of ACC games on Fox to try to get ESPN to renegotiate the entire contract. If I were ESPN, and the conference wanted hundreds or when tens of millions of dollars for including WVU games, I would tell them to sell those games to Fox.

 

[bobongo]

That is a sports case.

Yeah, the sports. Remember that? That's what draws the eyeballs, which makes the money.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Respectfully, I think it would be a mistake to drop the series. Rivalries are fun, being competitive makes them more fun, but all the same. If you’re in the fight song - you should play the game.

We're in Alabama's fight song and they keep ducking us. What does that say about them?

 

[RonJohn]

Yeah, the sports. Remember that? That's what draws the eyeballs, which makes the money.

That isn't how college sports have made the serious money in at least a couple of decades.

 

[forensicbuzz]

Oh I agree it won't get rid of them altogether, but look at it this way, with 8 conference games, 2 cross conference games, and uga on the schedule, we only have to suffer through one craptastic match up a year.

Duke or Wake Forest?

 

[Richard7125]

I haven't read the contract. However, I seriously doubt that ESPN's lawyers would allow the contract to say that adding any team would make the contract null and void. I seriously doubt there is such a condition that the ACC can shop the media rights to someone else. More likely than that is that if another team is added the rights for games at that school are not automatically added. If that were the case, the ACC could try to sell WVU's home games to someone else. They could use the threat of ACC games on Fox to try to get ESPN to renegotiate the entire contract. If I were ESPN, and the conference wanted hundreds or when tens of millions of dollars for including WVU games, I would tell them to sell those games to Fox.

It might be interesting to see how ESPN changes the Big 12 contract after losing two teams. I'm sure they aren't just going to reduce it by 10% for texas and 10% for Oklahoma. They will renegotiate. Now granted, there is a massive difference between Texas/Oklahoma and WVU, but the fundamentals are similar.

 

[Richard7125]

i'm not advocating for WVU. I'm just saying i see Yeti and Bobongo's point and what's good for the goose is good for the gander.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Maybe the article is accurate, and maybe it isn't taking everything into consideration.

If, as many are saying, the original contract was poorly negotiated and rights to ACC games are worth more than ESPN is paying, re-negotiation of the entire contract should produce a better deal. I don't know exactly how the contract is written and I'm not a contract lawyer, but it seems to me the addition of a new team could trigger a start from scratch re-negotiation. So again, it's not what WVU brings per se, it's that their addition would trigger a re-negotiation. And it's my contention that they are the current best available option.

You keep repeating the same argument over and over. I think everyone understands your logic. You’ve articulated it well. Essentially WVU is the catalyst to reopen a contract that was badly negotiated from the beginning. It is not WVU per-se that adds the value it is their being the foot in the door to starting the whole conversation over.

But here is what others are saying that seems to be going over your head. ESPN is HAPPY with the current contract. They have no reason to reopen negotiations. In theory they might be forced to if you could demonstrate that you had landed a big enough fish to change the entire calculus. West Virginia is not that big fish however. The math is pretty clear on this. ESPN will stand pat if we just add West Virginia.

 

[RonJohn]

It might be interesting to see how ESPN changes the Big 12 contract after losing two teams. I'm sure they aren't just going to reduce it by 10% for texas and 10% for Oklahoma. They will renegotiate. Now granted, there is a massive difference between Texas/Oklahoma and WVU, but the fundamentals are similar.

They don't have to renegotiate. The TV contract ends when TX and OK are currently scheduled to leave in 2025. They will just offer much less if the remaining teams stay together.

 

[GTjunkie]

So much for the "alliance" from USC's point of view. Just announced a game with LSU in Las Vegas, 2024.

 

[TooTall]

So much for the "alliance" from USC's point of view. Just announced a game with LSU in Las Vegas, 2024.

The alliance isn't about not scheduling $ec teams. It's about eventually replacing the NCAA by laying the foundation for a new organization that will correct the mistakes of the NCAA. The alliance will bring in the $ec, it'd be stupid not to. Another reason for the alliance is to ask "if we should" rather than the $ec mantra of "if we could". The $ec only cares about money which is why they add any team they can. The last 4 additions (USCe, ARK, MIZZ, TAM) to the $ec have produced 0 football conference champs. Just because we COULD add wvu, doesn't mean we should.