Everybody wants to hold the baby. Nobody wants to go through labor.

[RamblinRed]

I want to add context on 2 items that have been discussed.

First, recruiting. It has definitely improved since Collins arrived, but let's not overstate how good it has been.
2021 48th 247Sports 49th Rivals (this was a smaller class)
2020 27th, 25th (this is the class that folks are hanging the 'recruiting chops' argument on)
2019 50th, 43rd (this is the hiring class, so you would expect it to struggle some)

Right now for 2022
22nd, 23rd (good for now, but how the class finishes will decide whether it stays in the Top 25)

Recruiting is definitely better, but it is not like Collins is bringing in 'historic' classes. He's bringing in classes that with good coaching and good player development give you chance at being a Top 25 program. But not good enough that recruiting by itself will give you that.

Second, the comparison of Collins to Pastner really doesn't work well for a number of reasons. Now I was vehemently against Pastner being hired, but once it became official he is my coach. Both came in with big rebuilds ahead. When Jon Rothstein came to watch practice that first fall he said it was the least talented major college program he saw. But unlike Collins, despite his really young age Pastner came in with significant HC experience. Second. unlike Collins, Pastner greatly exceeded expectations that first year. Instead of winning 10 games (which was the expectation that season), the team won 21 games and made it to the NIT Finals. That was really important for a couple of reasons. It gave Pastner some goodwill so that when everything went sideways in years 2 and 3 you still had somethin you could hang your hat on. More importantly, that first year showed that Pastner and his staff could coach (which was sort of opposite what most thought). That goodwill and proof of concept gave Pastner the time and support needed to get through some tough years. Then there was a major improvement in year 4 (which likely would have been an NIT year if GT wasn't sanctioned and they actually had a tourney). Then last year we have the ACC Chamipionship.

I really hope Collins succeeds and I root for GT to win every weekend, but the results to this point are not promising.

 

[Billygoat91]

I really enjoyed your post @ilovetheoption and your perspective. At this point I am ready to end the experiment. I think (and I have said) Collins’ recruiting classes are mediocre. We are just getting talent that “fits the mold” and are therefore rated higher.

Is Gibbs really good? Yes, but so was Days, Mills, and Laskey they were just in different roles as required by the offense.

I agree that recruiting stars skew towards the "in-vogue" systems slightly, but Gibbs is amazing no matter what offense you put him in. I understand the point you are trying to make, but Gibbs is up there with the best in GA Tech history in terms of God-given ability. Days, Mills, and Laskey were all great players that should be remembered at Tech for a long time, but they are not Gibbs.

 

[JCTNJacket]

GTFB 2021 would be 3rd or 4th(maybe) in the SoCon this year. UTC, Furman, ETSU would all beat them, and the lower tier option teams probably too. Talent is not that different other than Gibbs. QB's at several SoCon teams are better. I say give Collins another year if he has a credible plan for fixing DC/OC and committing to an identity that is not just rahrah. Syracuse at least has one. Pitt has one. Game day coaching is a failure.

 

[takethepoints]

You guys have been expecting it since day 1, though. Seems like bad ju-ju to me to talk about bad stuff that hasn't happened. It seems like some folks actually want it to happen so it will hasten Collins' departure. Terrible look.

No, really, I don't want that! And, further, I don't expect that we'll see the players jumping ship in large numbers after this season. But …

It is unrealistic to think that many of our better players won't be thinking things over. There's a limited shelf life for college football players. If things continue to slide (and I really hope that doesn't happen) next year, then we'll be in trouble, imho.

 

[JCTNJacket]

I'd pick Tech 4th in the SoCon behind UTC, Furman and ETSU. Coaching gameday and schemes is why, talent not that different.

 

[forensicbuzz]

GTFB 2021 would be 3rd or 4th(maybe) in the SoCon this year. UTC, Furman, ETSU would all beat them, and the lower tier option teams probably too. Talent is not that different other than Gibbs. QB's at several SoCon teams are better. I say give Collins another year if he has a credible plan for fixing DC/OC and committing to an identity that is not just rahrah. Syracuse at least has one. Pitt has one. Game day coaching is a failure.

This post isn't worthy of discussion.

 

[ilovetheoption]

I want to add context on 2 items that have been discussed.

First, recruiting. It has definitely improved since Collins arrived, but let's not overstate how good it has been.
2021 48th 247Sports 49th Rivals (this was a smaller class)
2020 27th, 25th (this is the class that folks are hanging the 'recruiting chops' argument on)
2019 50th, 43rd (this is the hiring class, so you would expect it to struggle some)

Right now for 2022
22nd, 23rd (good for now, but how the class finishes will decide whether it stays in the Top 25)

Recruiting is definitely better, but it is not like Collins is bringing in 'historic' classes. He's bringing in classes that with good coaching and good player development give you chance at being a Top 25 program. But not good enough that recruiting by itself will give you that.

Second, the comparison of Collins to Pastner really doesn't work well for a number of reasons. Now I was vehemently against Pastner being hired, but once it became official he is my coach. Both came in with big rebuilds ahead. When Jon Rothstein came to watch practice that first fall he said it was the least talented major college program he saw. But unlike Collins, despite his really young age Pastner came in with significant HC experience. Second. unlike Collins, Pastner greatly exceeded expectations that first year. Instead of winning 10 games (which was the expectation that season), the team won 21 games and made it to the NIT Finals. That was really important for a couple of reasons. It gave Pastner some goodwill so that when everything went sideways in years 2 and 3 you still had somethin you could hang your hat on. More importantly, that first year showed that Pastner and his staff could coach (which was sort of opposite what most thought). That goodwill and proof of concept gave Pastner the time and support needed to get through some tough years. Then there was a major improvement in year 4 (which likely would have been an NIT year if GT wasn't sanctioned and they actually had a tourney). Then last year we have the ACC Chamipionship.

I really hope Collins succeeds and I root for GT to win every weekend, but the results to this point are not promising.

I think I agree with you, but I still think you have to find out for sure one way or the other, just so you don't waste time down the road trying to be something you can't be, because you never proved you couldn't.

 

[alagold]

Really, we are debating something (firing) now that can't be done.--UNLESS some HUGE whale puts up a TON of money. We will probably just drift for 2 yrs into vandy and dook level and maybe to FCS level.

 

[bobongo]

This is my BIG question? Folks say that GC has recruited good players. In year 3 I have not seen the results " on the whole ". The DL and OL are atrocious. The D secondary is a joke , and they have been here for awhile. The QB's are still learning, but have a long way to go. All this said, GC gets 1 more year, no more!!

I do give him credit for his overall recruiting, and while OL recruiting hasn't been particularly strong, we have some excellent prospects in this year's class at DL if we can hang on to them. We have some great prospects for the secondary, and I don't know why we haven't seen more of them this year (or what we have to lose by getting them on the field).

I just don't have any faith Collins can coach them.

 

[Skeptic]

I don't disagree with a single thing you wrote. This is the path GT chose to take, have to see it to conclusion.

I will say, the only nitpick I would add is that the idea can't be 'we will recruit better prospects and that will magically translate to more winning' - which you are not advocating, but is how many think. That is not how football works.
To me, the coaching staff has 3 relatively even responsibilities.
one is recruiting
A second is player development
A third is gameday coaching.

If you have better recruiting than previously but either of the other 2 pieces drop from a previous staff, then you are unlikely to improve.

What we have seen so far from Collins and his staff is that they can likely recruit at a Top 20-25 level (that looks to be about the ceiling) if things are going well.
There are significant question marks about both the player development and in-game coaching that raise serious questions.

so if you think recuiting is going better, than you have to improve those other 2 components to have a chance to improve from the previous program baseline. So assuming you are going to continue the experiment that means looking at the data as you collect it and deciding are their things you can do better by making changes. Right now that would appear to likely mean making changes to the staff to hopefully improve the second and their pieces.

I can't disagree with you either. Now fire Collins before he burns down the firehouse. He could recruit -- his reputation greatly overblown there in my view -- an army of Heismans but then put them on the field to his worse than goofy coaching decisions and still lose 55-0 or 72 to whatever and god knows what Georgia will do. Frankly good coaches do not lose by those scores, ever, much less stand on the sideline looking shellshocked.

 

[4shotB]

I agree that recruiting stars skew towards the "in-vogue" systems slightly, but Gibbs is amazing no matter what offense you put him in. I understand the point you are trying to make, but Gibbs is up there with the best in GA Tech history in terms of God-given ability. Days, Mills, and Laskey were all great players that should be remembered at Tech for a long time, but they are not Gibbs.

I agree. We have had so many great backs at Tech...Mays, Lavette, Laskey, Dwyer, Choice, Daniels, etc., etc. But two (to me) jump off the charts in regards to the eyeball test. That is ELI and Gibbs. Those are the guys who just were given that something extra. I don't follow other teams all that much but I cannot believe there is a back anywhere better than him.

 

[Pointer]

Basic summary stats for CGC’s number of wins in a season.

Max: 3
Min: 3
Mean: 3
Median: 3
Mode: 3

 

[SOWEGA Jacket]

But a tornado hasn't taken out the lab. It's still ongoing and moving forward. When the season is over we'll see what happens with this staff. It will be an interesting discussion. Some will think not enough has been done, some will think too much has been done, and some won't have a clue.

I disagree. A tornado has taken out the lab. We are about to lose our 6th game in a row. Only 2 of them are ranked. We haven’t won back to back games in 4 years. I’m not against keeping the experiment going but the players are human. They see everyday the coaches are inept. They won’t stay. Their parents see it. Most of these players come from high level high school programs who won a lot of games. No one wants to spend their college years as an experiment in failure.

 

[GT_05]

LMAO

 

[GTcanWINagain]

Guys.

This is it.

Right now.

This moment right now, where you're not a good team, and you just got slaughtered by ND, and you're aware that if UGA wanted this the score to be 100-0, and it's only by virtue of their class as a program and their mercy that it won't be, this is the moment, where you're either going to run the experiment, or you're not.

It's not guaranteed to work. That's the thing about experiments. Sometimes they fail, but they ALWAYS fail if you give up halfway through them.

4 years ago, you guys made a choice to run this experiment. The experiment is "we're f'n sick and tired of topping out as a program because we have x's and o's, and they have jimmies and joes, so let's try to do it the other way".

You then made decisions based off that choice. "Who is the best possible recruiter that we think we can get, and who will stick with GT". You said to yourself "we're going all in on jimmies and joes, because we really, really, really believe that if you've got the best guys, it overcomes tactics"

And, "the best guys" doesn't mean "the best guys as freshmen and sophomores". It means "the best guys as seniors, with the best guys as juniors, and the best guys as sophoremores, and the best guys as freshmen".

Getting the best guys means telling them what they want to hear, and what they want to hear is "we're going to prepare you for the NFL, and we're going to make you rich because of it", and that means running stuff that translates to the nfl.

THAT means running the same stuff as everybody else, and when you run the same stuff as everybody else AND they've got 2 years of recruiting and S/C on you, they kick your asses 55-0.

Is there a world where you have both? Meh, IDK, but you believed that collins was the best guy to get you the best jimmies and joes, and would stick at GT, and frankly, that wasn't a bad guess.

Could you guess maybe Charles Huff? Maybe. Could you guess maybe Mike Locksley? Maybe. Could you guess maybe Dre Bly? Maybe. Collins was probably a better pick for GT at the time, knowing what we knew then. He was in that elite cadre of recruiters, reputation wise, and he WANTS to be at GT.

For the experiment you're trying to run, Collins was the best pick.

So, we get to now.

If you're going to run this experiment to its conclusion, THIS is when you just shut up, and grind your teeth, deal with the massive L's.

The point of an experiment is to get datapoints, and you'll never get the data you want if you bail now. The data is "Can GT REALLY recruit their way to wins? Like, you've talked about it forever, and some people think yes, and some people think now, but right now you're halfway through an experiment. If you finish the experiment (because you'll probably lose next year, too), you can make decisions.

If, after 2023, you're still losing, then you know: We cannot do this. Our fundamentals do not allow it. Lets go get Jeff Monken, or Jamie Chadwell, or some Leach disciple, and try to do it on scheme.

If, on the other hand, after 2023, suddenly you're lining up and kicking UVa's *** at the point of attack, and giving UGA a game, and all we need to do is keep it up, and maybe tweak here or there, then you know that, too.

But if you quit now, and you never REALLY try to win on talent, with an entire roster stocked top to bottom, and fully developed with the best recruiter you're ever likely to get, then you'll never know, and that'll lead you to bad decisions (or at least decisions made on incomplete info).

I can't stand Geoff Collins. I think he's a clown, I think he's a D-bag, and I'd NEVER hire that guy to coach for me. Also, I think GT CAN'T do it. I think your academic and social environment, as well as your disinterested alumni base (and they'll ALWAYS be disinterested vis a vis uga) preclude you from winning like UGA does. THAT SAID, you've sunk 3 years into this experiment, and it's a good, valid experiment. You really want to get the data from this, so shut up, see it through, take the huge loss to UGA. Take a ****-ton of losses next year, and then the year after, get your data and move on from there.

You guys are numbers guys. Get your numbers.

Right now. This moment. Stop thinking with your hearts, and your "jesus, I'm going to have to hear about this from my UGA inlaws for 20 years when they beat us by 70" and start thinking with your "I'm dealing with unpleasantness that will allow me to make optimal football-related decisions for 2 generations".

Signed,

The least likely guy on this board to write this post (and also somebody with no skin in the game)

You brought your passion for continuing on the journey with Collins who you say that you cannot stand. It came across as more of resignation for the path we are on rather than making a difficult decision.

Fortunately for GT FB, your way of thinking was not Homer Rice’s in 1993-94. He had enough data from Bill Lewis (just as many of us have on Geoff Collins) so he changed courses. By doing so (making the hard decision), he ushered in the George O’Leary era with the Joe Hamilton years, 3 wins over the Dawgs, the great Gator Bowl win over Notre Dame, and many others. I will argue that this era was a big factor in the Gailey era having its own share of highlights like Calvin Johnson and the bowl streak continuing.

No, I believe keeping Collins is not our fate. Braine got GT MBB in the Hewitt contract mess but Radakovich got us out of it. Next, Bobinski got us out of Brian Gregory and into Josh Pastner. That ACC Tournament Championship and return to the NCAA felt great (I also have MBB season tickets).

If Collins keeps on as our HC, our 55K stadium will be empty all 2022 - especially after Lane Kiffin starts our season with yet another blowout…

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Less of the debate is about a coach or philosophy and more how it has been presented. If CGC had come in and spoken about building on the positives from all Tech years including Johnson instead of stating it was the greatest transformation in college football history there would be less division than there is today. CGC talks about always being positive and that is not true - he is always positive when it benefits him - he was very negative about this historic transition and that hurt the GT brand, the fact that the years prior many GT fans bought into the negativity of the "high school offense" also hurt our brand. We are more worried about being accepted by college football rivals and sending players to the NFL than we are about winning football games.

CPJ was not perfect but he did bring success to GT and opponents did not look forward to playing Tech when he was here. Were we on a downward slide - perhaps, but history shows that CPJ had a way of recovering. However, he could only recover with support. The same is true of CGC - can he recover? I do not know but it can only occur with our support. I don't particularly like CGC's approach but I support him just as I have all Tech coaches. It frustrated me when we got down on CCG or CPJ during the season and it frustrates me to get down on CGC.

One final thought the only reason a school like UF, LSU, USC announced coaching changes during the season is recruiting. GT does not have the same concern - if we announce the departure of CGC that will not benefit our recruiting since we will not be as attractive a destination for coaches.

Thank you for writing this. You saved me from having to say something similar.

 

[slugboy]

You brought your passion for continuing on the journey with Collins who you say that you cannot stand. It came across as more of resignation for the path we are on rather than making a difficult decision.

Fortunately for GT FB, your way of thinking was not Homer Rice’s in 1993-94. He had enough data from Bill Lewis (just as many of us have on Geoff Collins) so he changed courses. By doing so (making the hard decision), he ushered in the George O’Leary era with the Joe Hamilton years, 3 wins over the Dawgs, the great Gator Bowl win over Notre Dame, and many others. I will argue that this era was a big factor in the Gailey era having its own share of highlights like Calvin Johnson and the bowl streak continuing.

No, I believe keeping Collins is not our fate. Braine got GT MBB in the Hewitt contract mess but Radakovich got us out of it. Next, Bobinski got us out of Brian Gregory and into Josh Pastner. That ACC Tournament Championship and return to the NCAA felt great (I also have MBB season tickets).

If Collins keeps on as our HC, our 55K stadium will be empty all 2022 - especially after Lane Kiffin starts our season with yet another blowout…

Rice didn’t fire Lewis immediately. He hired O’Leary as Lewis’ DC as a “this guy will fix what you haven’t and he’ll replace you if you don’t turn it around”.

It had to be especially galling to Lewis because he was a defensive coach. Lewis eventually went back to coaching DBs in the NFL.
BTW, Hewitt had another job offer, and told DRad that he would take it and get us out of the perpetual rollover, but DRad talked him into staying. Then DRad fired him the next season and had to pay the buyout over an extended period.

 

[forensicbuzz]

I disagree. A tornado has taken out the lab. We are about to lose our 6th game in a row. Only 2 of them are ranked. We haven’t won back to back games in 4 years. I’m not against keeping the experiment going but the players are human. They see everyday the coaches are inept. They won’t stay. Their parents see it. Most of these players come from high level high school programs who won a lot of games. No one wants to spend their college years as an experiment in failure.

Well, I guess you're entitled to your opinion. We'll see how many of our starters/highly recruited kids decide to transfer out. We'll see how our recruiting is affected. Until then, it's just your outside-looking-in opinion. Go look at what the parents that are just coming aboard are saying in the recruiting forum. Pretty much the opposite of what you're saying.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Every recruit will be shown that NBC screenshot between now and signing day.

Wow. Ouch. Exactly. Tech has been negative recruited against since Dooley was at uga. Unfortunately, 9 times out of 10, our own fan base picks up the attack and amplifies it.

Wish we could find a unique identity, stick with it, and get all our own fans to proudly embrace it.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Charles Dudish?

Yep, the number one quarterback recruit in the nation. The 60 Minutes TV show even did a segment on him, he was such a phenom.

Wasn’t there one more top QB recruit when Lewis was coaching?