Because recruiting rankings correlate to on-field results on a large sample size. If their talent differential gives them a a 70-30 edge then they’re significantly better and it’s gonna show long term. If you play one game, that’s not in “assumed loss” territory for me. We beat Miami on the road last year with their 18th ranked roster talent (per 247) while we were 45th. UNC’s roster is probably gonna be in the 20-25 range this season (they were 28th last year). And we’ll probably be in the 30-35 range. I think you’re over-estimating the talent differential on our 2020 rosters.
Also if you’re assuming recruiting is going to play a large part, I’m confused why you think we’ll have a better chance in 2021/2022. The way they’re going their roster talent advantage is only going to increase after 2020.
two things:
1. Beating Miami last year had more to do with the dumpster fire MIami was than talent on our side. That differential is very real, even with the current players we are bringing in, and Miami will always be a tough out, especially if they get a good coach.
2. UNC, which was already ahead of us in talent, is also recruiting better than us. That talent gap is narrower, and the reason I think we have better shots in 2021/22 is because we will have then built our depth with the upgraded talent. Right now, other than RB we are one deep in many roster positions with a lot of our depth coming from very inexperienced college level players. As we turn that corner, teams that we are closer to in talent, even if they are slightly ahead of us, should be beatable at lest 50% of the time.
I think we agree more than we disagree, I just don't think a lot of our fan base is thinking this completely through the what seems the obvious conclusions. If, as you say "recruiting rankings correlate to on-field results on a large sample size" then over the next few years we have to not only stay consistent in recruiting, but we have to get even better. If we want to be a 10 win team routinely, playing the schedule we play, then we need to be recruiting at or near the to 15 level. We are historically a 7 win program, which I think everyone here agrees is not an acceptable outcome for future program goals. To become a 10 win team, we need to run the table against everyone but uga and Clemson, who recruit in the top 5, and beat Miami and UNC, who both recruit better than us. Miami is generally a top 10-15 team and UNC is trending in that area. If we go 50% against those two, then we are a 9 win team, assuming we beat everyone else on our schedule. In ND years the road gets more difficult. That's also assuming that other teams, particularly VT, never recover or improve at a pace with us. Those are some major assumptions.So, we can argue about whether or not UNC should be counted as an automatic loss (I think so for 2020, but after think it becomes more a 50/50 game) but those arguments in the finer points miss the bigger picture. We are doing well in recruiting, but if we want to be a great team again, we are going to have to do even better.
As before, I think CGC knows this, and everything he is building is leading in that direction.
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