ESPN: Bill Connelly's ACC Coastal season preview

[gtrower]

UNC, Clemson, ND, uga will all be losses unless something strange happens to rosters via injuries or c19.

UNC is talented. They also went 6-6 last year. They’re not in the same tier as the other 3. Not even close imho. Maybe in 2 years though the way they’re recruiting.

 

[GTFLETCH]

I think the most telling thing about that chart is how close O’Leary had us to being relevant on the national stage during the joe Hamilton years. We couldn’t quite sustain the improvement and get over the hump but it’s possible.

I find Bill Connelly's "GT's SP+ history 1945-2019 to be a very interesting chart. Coaches above the 80 percentile line - Bill Curry (2 seasons), Bobby Ross (3 seasons) and George O'Leary (3 seasons) and Chan Gailey one season right at the 80th percentile. If you are surprised that Gailey's name appears on the list, raise your hand. (it is the year they lost to Wake Forest in ACC Title Game)

One other interesting trend line to follow. It took Bill Curry 4 seasons to reach the 80th percentile and Bobby Ross just 2 seasons, George O'Leary four season and Chan Gailey 6 seasons. It took Paul Johnson six seasons to recover to the 70th percentile. So expect the Geoof Collins era to take at least four to six years to reach its peak (whatever that might be)

Also I am even more impressed on what Paul Johnson did at Georgia Tech while his peak was the highest in 2014 at 75% it would seem that GTAA really got their $$ worth with CPJ. (ACC Title in 2009, Peach Bowl 2008, OB 2009, OB 2014 Gator Bowl in 2016)

Also Coach George O'leary had GT in the hunt and I am hopeful that Coach Collins can get Tech back to 1998-2001 success! Only Time will tell!

 

[a5ehren]

That 2006 defense was nasty. An even semi-competent offense gets us a Calvin Johnson heisman and outside shot at a natty.

Instead, we lost to friggin' Wake Forest 9-6 in one of the most abysmal games I've ever seen.

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

That 2006 defense was nasty. An even semi-competent offense gets us a Calvin Johnson heisman and outside shot at a natty.

Instead, we lost to friggin' Wake Forest 9-6 in one of the most abysmal games I've ever seen.

Yep. What’s even more frustrating is the talent was there on offense, too. The coaching wasn’t. That was probably the most talented team we’ve had since 1990. Horrendous offensive coaching held us back. The only team that straight up beat us was Clemson. We should have been 12-1 ACC Champs going into the bowl season.

 

[gtrower]

That 2006 defense was nasty. An even semi-competent offense gets us a Calvin Johnson heisman and outside shot at a natty.

Instead, we lost to friggin' Wake Forest 9-6 in one of the most abysmal games I've ever seen.

Clemson is the only team that really handled us. That ND game should have been a W if not for refs sheltering Brady Quinn. That UGA game was an abomination of reffing (the one where refs were pulling people off the pile before uga wrenches the ball away and returns it for a TD). WF in the game that should have changed the college PI rule. And then WV without our starting QB.

 

[orientalnc]

UNC is talented. They also went 6-6 last year. They’re not in the same tier as the other 3. Not even close imho. Maybe in 2 years though the way they’re recruiting.

I agree with you that UNC is not equivalent to the other three. But, I bet we're 2 TD underdogs right now.

 

[JacketOff]

UNC is talented. They also went 6-6 last year. They’re not in the same tier as the other 3. Not even close imho. Maybe in 2 years though the way they’re recruiting.

UNC went 6-6 last year, but that was also coming off a year where they went 2-9, while also starting a true freshman QB. All 6 games they lost last year were within 1 possession. Although some of those games were against some pretty mediocre opponents (App State, Wake, and Pitt) they made huge strides last year. And even in 2018 when they went 2-9, they lost 2 overtime, and 4 total one possession games. That’s 10 one possession losses in 2 seasons compared to 5 one possession wins. They were the only team outside of the CFP to even give Clemson a scare last year.

Their last 4 recruiting classes have averaged to be 25th, and they currently have the 7th overall 2021 class and are tied for 4th nationally for the amount of 4 stars committed. Are they equivalent to Clemson or Georgia? No, but they’re pretty damn close to Notre Dame. Talent wise they’re basically equivalent to Miami, but with much fewer internal issues than the Canes. I’d expect Mack to hang around until Sam Howell either graduates or gets drafted, by that point UNC might be legitimate title contenders.

 

[gtrower]

UNC went 6-6 last year, but that was also coming off a year where they went 2-9, while also starting a true freshman QB. All 6 games they lost last year were within 1 possession. Although some of those games were against some pretty mediocre opponents (App State, Wake, and Pitt) they made huge strides last year. And even in 2018 when they went 2-9, they lost 2 overtime, and 4 total one possession games. That’s 10 one possession losses in 2 seasons compared to 5 one possession wins. They were the only team outside of the CFP to even give Clemson a scare last year.

Their last 4 recruiting classes have averaged to be 25th, and they currently have the 7th overall 2021 class and are tied for 4th nationally for the amount of 4 stars committed. Are they equivalent to Clemson or Georgia? No, but they’re pretty damn close to Notre Dame. Talent wise they’re basically equivalent to Miami, but with much fewer internal issues than the Canes. I’d expect Mack to hang around until Sam Howell either graduates or gets drafted, by that point UNC might be legitimate title contenders.

You sound like a heel fan with that defense. Their 2021 class is crazy good. Luckily we’re playing them in 2020. They do not belong in the same tier as the three factories on our schedule this year. There’s only like 3 other teams in the country that do.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

QBs put North Carolina, Miami and Virginia Tech ahead of pack
https://www.espn.com/college-footba...north-carolina-miami-virginia-tech-ahead-pack
2020 projection: 4-8 (3-5), 58th
Five best returning players: RB Jordan Mason, S Juanyeh Thomas, LG Jack DeFoor, LB David Curry, CB Tre Swilling

Some interesting comments on our upside for the year, particularly on D. The big caveat there:

Let’s hear it for Bill - last year he was finally right about us for the first time in like 20 years. May have been as lucky as hitting a lottery ticket, but we’ll give him his due. He’s slightly less accurate than a broken clock.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I’d expect Mack to hang around until Sam Howell either graduates or gets drafted, by that point UNC might be legitimate title contenders.

He was the chief architect of the Fake University, and UNCheat unashamedly hired him right back at their first opportunity after the investigation was over. They don’t give a crap. The SEC shows that even with worthless coaching that a ton of talent can win you several games anyway.

 

[JacketOff]

You sound like a heel fan with that defense. Their 2021 class is crazy good. Luckily we’re playing them in 2020. They do not belong in the same tier as the three factories on our schedule this year. There’s only like 3 other teams in the country that do.

I’m not a Heel fan, nor am I defending them. I’m just simply saying UNC is not the typical team they have been, nor are they a typical Coastal team. Based on the 2020 schedule Clemson and UGA are in their own tier. I’d say ND, UNC, and Miami are also in their own tier in that all of those games would be pretty significant upsets, but none of them are equal to Clem or Ugag.

 

[gtrower]

I’m not a Heel fan, nor am I defending them. I’m just simply saying UNC is not the typical team they have been, nor are they a typical Coastal team. Based on the 2020 schedule Clemson and UGA are in their own tier. I’d say ND, UNC, and Miami are also in their own tier in that all of those games would be pretty significant upsets, but none of them are equal to Clem or Ugag.

Honestly I would have bought an argument for Miami to be moved up instead of UNC. If King clicks at QB they could be scary good. Already had one of the best DEs in the country and just got another in the transfer portal. I’d pick them to win the Coastal. UNC and VT to battle for second (two programs trending in very opposite directions). And then we might actually be the best of the rest.

 

[orientalnc]

You sound like a heel fan with that defense. Their 2021 class is crazy good. Luckily we’re playing them in 2020. They do not belong in the same tier as the three factories on our schedule this year. There’s only like 3 other teams in the country that do.

A reality based assessment is not biased. This is why I said the UNC game is an almost certain loss.

 

[gtrower]

A reality based assessment is not biased. This is why I said the UNC game is an almost certain loss.

What’s your correlation for “almost certain loss” to point spread?

 

[orientalnc]

What’s your correlation for “almost certain loss” to point spread?

I don't GAF about point spread. That has very little relation to the game.

 

[gtrower]

I don't GAF about point spread. That has very little relation to the game.

What? Our preseason predictions have very little relation to the game. But a point spread is a measure of what is expected to happen. In other words exactly what we’re doing here.

If spreads were to come out for every game right now, Clemson/uga/nd would all be 20+ point favorites. UNC/Miami/vt would be more like 12-13. Probably ucf too. Apparently theyre slight favorites over UNC opening week already (which should tell you how Vegas views UNC right now).

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

UNC went 6-6 last year, but that was also coming off a year where they went 2-9, while also starting a true freshman QB. All 6 games they lost last year were within 1 possession. Although some of those games were against some pretty mediocre opponents (App State, Wake, and Pitt) they made huge strides last year. And even in 2018 when they went 2-9, they lost 2 overtime, and 4 total one possession games. That’s 10 one possession losses in 2 seasons compared to 5 one possession wins. They were the only team outside of the CFP to even give Clemson a scare last year.

Their last 4 recruiting classes have averaged to be 25th, and they currently have the 7th overall 2021 class and are tied for 4th nationally for the amount of 4 stars committed. Are they equivalent to Clemson or Georgia? No, but they’re pretty damn close to Notre Dame. Talent wise they’re basically equivalent to Miami, but with much fewer internal issues than the Canes. I’d expect Mack to hang around until Sam Howell either graduates or gets drafted, by that point UNC might be legitimate title contenders.

UNC has always had talent almost the equivalent of Miami but they may have caught up with the Canes by now. Talent wise the top five we face are: Clemson, UGA, Notre Dame, UNC, and Miami in roughly that order I guess. A pretty tough row to hoe. Coach Collins must have drawn the short straw at a coaches meeting or something. I cannot in good conscience see us beating any of them, maybe Miami but we will be two touchdowns or more underdogs in all of those games. Ugh!

 

[JacketOff]

UNC has always had talent almost the equivalent of Miami but they may have caught up with the Canes by now. Talent wise the top five we face are: Clemson, UGA, Notre Dame, UNC, and Miami in roughly that order I guess. A pretty tough row to hoe. Coach Collins must have drawn the short straw at a coaches meeting or something. I cannot in good conscience see us beating any of them, maybe Miami but we will be two touchdowns or more underdogs in all of those games. Ugh!

I believe this year (if there is indeed a season) will go a long way in determining the trajectory of the Coastal.
VT is looking like their solid run is coming to an end, and UVA might be on the way back up under Bronco.
Pitt will have one of the better defenses in the country, but a question mark on offense as they try to break from the circle of mediocrity.

Then we have the 3 second year coaches.

UNC is trying to capitalize on a possible generational talent at QB with a coach who doesn’t have but a couple more years left in the tank. Both UNC and Miami finished last year at 6-6, but UNC won their last 3 games by 30+ points and put up 55 and 56 points in 2 of them. While Miami went from a very solid 3 game win streak, including wins over FSU and Louisville, to probably one of the most embarrassing 3 game stretches in Miami history losing to FIU, Duke, and La Tech. Manny Diaz is definitely on the hot seat, and there’s obviously some massive culture problems going on right now in the Gables.

GT is the biggest wildcard in the Coastal right now. A new head coach, attempting to turn the program’s culture on its head from what the status quo once was. A young coach, with a young team, and an incredibly tough schedule. It could turn out to be amazing, or it could be incredibly bad. Showing signs of improvement could be huge for getting the ball rolling on becoming a premier program again, but nobody really know what Tech is truly capable of, because those limits haven’t been pushed since well, Dodd.

UNC is in the process of setting up a new coach with a loaded lineup, and very high expectations.
Miami is trying to hold on to any semblance they have left of being a top program.
GT is trying to force its way to the top and hope it sticks, because nobody really knows if it will.
Whoever has the better year between NC and Miami will be the top dog in the Coastal for the foreseeable future, and if Tech improves and signs a big 2022 class like they have the potential to, we’ll definitely be pushing for the top dog spot in a couple of years.

 

[gtrower]

UNC has always had talent almost the equivalent of Miami but they may have caught up with the Canes by now. Talent wise the top five we face are: Clemson, UGA, Notre Dame, UNC, and Miami in roughly that order I guess. A pretty tough row to hoe. Coach Collins must have drawn the short straw at a coaches meeting or something. I cannot in good conscience see us beating any of them, maybe Miami but we will be two touchdowns or more underdogs in all of those games. Ugh!

https://247sports.com/season/2019-football/collegeteamtalentcomposite/

They haven’t updated for 2020 yet.
3. uga
9. Clemson
14. Nd
18. Miami
28. UNC
29. Vt

Miami had a better 2020 class than UNC so I imagine they stay ~10 spots higher than them (unless transfers change things dramatically).

 

[slugboy]

For the last few seasons, the locker room at Miami seems to have been falling apart, but that seemed to start after a rough loss for them each time. So, we’ve been able to count on them playing below the level of their talent.
Their first 6 games are
Temple
Wagner
UAB
At Michigan State
Pitt
Wake Forest

I can see them 5-1 or even 6-0 and heading into the bye week with a ton of enthusiasm. I’d bet the turnover chain will be a hot commodity

The last six games are
UNC
at UVa
FSU
at VT
at GT
Duke

UNC looks like it will be circled for them, and they have two weeks to prep. I have my doubts about their offense and coaching, but this season is set up for them to make a run.

When we meet them, either the wheels will have come off their season, or they’ll be playing for a big bowl and possibly the ACC title game. UNC and MSU are the big games I’d look at for them.


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