ESPN: Bill Connelly's ACC Coastal season preview

[orientalnc]

I do not think UNC is a lot better than Miami, but we have Miami at home and UNC on the road. That is why I feel UNC is an almost certain loss. Now, I think we might also lose to Miami, but having them at home late in the season could be an advantage for us.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

UNC is talented. They also went 6-6 last year. They’re not in the same tier as the other 3. Not even close imho. Maybe in 2 years though the way they’re recruiting.

It's interesting that as fans we never really allow for other teams to improve their lot. Just us. If we're gonna use the metrics of historical performance, then GT is doomed. UNC is improving their recruiting, which was already better than ours, at a better clip than ours, and they aren't overhauling an offensive system from scratch either. Mack Brown may be old, but he;s a good coach who knows what he's doing. For the next few years, it's reasonable to assume that any possible path for GT to make an ACCCG will be through a very difficult UNC team.

 

[YJMD]

For the last few seasons, the locker room at Miami seems to have been falling apart, but that seemed to start after a rough loss for them each time. So, we’ve been able to count on them playing below the level of their talent.
Their first 6 games are
Temple
Wagner
UAB
At Michigan State
Pitt
Wake Forest

I can see them 5-1 or even 6-0 and heading into the bye week with a ton of enthusiasm. I’d bet the turnover chain will be a hot commodity

The last six games are
UNC
at UVa
FSU
at VT
at GT
Duke

UNC looks like it will be circled for them, and they have two weeks to prep. I have my doubts about their offense and coaching, but this season is set up for them to make a run.

When we meet them, either the wheels will have come off their season, or they’ll be playing for a big bowl and possibly the ACC title game. UNC and MSU are the big games I’d look at for them.


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Miami's locker room fell apart in the past because they had a bad culture to begin with. I don't have a lot of confidence the coaching staff will have a good culture, but they may be able to make significant strides. Seems that their transfers, especially King, have been establishing some sort of expectation for individual accountability there. I don't know what will be sustainable, but they've made big moves over the off-season and are an accountable culture away from a very good year. Any kind of computer analysis of their performance last year has highlighted a massive difference between wins and expected wins. And that's based on performance on the field, not talent level. Yeah that falls on deficits as a team and coaching, but it also validates how close they are to big success if those problems are fixed.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Miami's locker room fell apart in the past because they had a bad culture to begin with. I don't have a lot of confidence the coaching staff will have a good culture, but they may be able to make significant strides. Seems that their transfers, especially King, have been establishing some sort of expectation for individual accountability there. I don't know what will be sustainable, but they've made big moves over the off-season and are an accountable culture away from a very good year. Any kind of computer analysis of their performance last year has highlighted a massive difference between wins and expected wins. And that's based on performance on the field, not talent level. Yeah that falls on deficits as a team and coaching, but it also validates how close they are to big success if those problems are fixed.

Miami has the same issue any school that recruits that well does: you have to win big for the kids to get behind the discipline involved. CMR had them somewhat trending in that direction until 2018, but the revolving door of coaches there has hurt them. I really feel like Miami will eventually hire the right guy, and the talent is there for that guy to work with. They had the 6th ranked recruiting class just a couple of years ago. There is a LOT of talent on that team.

 

[YJMD]

Miami has the same issue any school that recruits that well does: you have to win big for the kids to get behind the discipline involved. CMR had them somewhat trending in that direction until 2018, but the revolving door of coaches there has hurt them. I really feel like Miami will eventually hire the right guy, and the talent is there for that guy to work with. They had the 6th ranked recruiting class just a couple of years ago. There is a LOT of talent on that team.

I think that problem exists at more places, but the expectations are certainly higher at a place like Miami. They also recruit to their party lifestyle and value in a way ego/swagger. It has worked in the past when the players used the collective swagger to boost their own egos (even if they are dirty players and causing off the field trouble) -- something like work hard play hard culture.

There are systems that can work that are far less empowering of the individual and can tolerate a lot of turnover in staff and players. See: Saban. I don't think anyone personally likes the dude, but he's systematic about what he does and has proven ability to produce results without normalizing deviance. Kids draw self-esteem from being part of a winner even if the overall environment isn't pleasant.

I think CGC is very different and his vision is the healthiest model. There is a lot in common with Dabo, though Dabo brings different values and throws on a Christian overlay. Of course, you need talent to produce results. And you need schemes and on-field coaching capable of leveraging that talent.

I think CPJ brought a lot of values to the table and had pretty good alignment in that way with CGC, actually, even though the way they approach football is near polar opposite. But CPJ was the type to depend more upon the individuals in the team to step up and drive the culture that reflects those values. He had commented on that in the past, notably in the difference between 14 and 15 despite all the injuries. CGC puts a lot more in place to encourage that leadership and really engages with the players.

 

[gtrower]

It's interesting that as fans we never really allow for other teams to improve their lot. Just us. If we're gonna use the metrics of historical performance, then GT is doomed. UNC is improving their recruiting, which was already better than ours, at a better clip than ours, and they aren't overhauling an offensive system from scratch either. Mack Brown may be old, but he;s a good coach who knows what he's doing. For the next few years, it's reasonable to assume that any possible path for GT to make an ACCCG will be through a very difficult UNC team.

Think you might have missed the thread of posts with which this was associated. I’m not ignoring UNCs possible growth from last season. I was saying they shouldn’t go from 6-6 to an “assumed loss” in the Clemson/uga/ND category in one offseason. Nowhere did I say they won’t be good this year. They likely will be good. Just on a tier with Miami/VT in the Coastal.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Think you might have missed the thread of posts with which this was associated. I’m not ignoring UNCs possible growth from last season. I was saying they shouldn’t go from 6-6 to an “assumed loss” in the Clemson/uga/ND category in one offseason. Nowhere did I say they won’t be good this year. They likely will be good. Just on a tier with Miami/VT in the Coastal.

Two things:

1. I think UNC is pretty much a guaranteed loss next year. For one, that 6-6 team led 38-15 before a garbage time score made us look slightly better. While we are improving, they are improving as well, and doing it with more highly ranked recruits in the process.

2. I think UNC in the short term may reach that same UM/ND tier that already exists. (typically top 8-15 recruiting classes)

Whether we want to admit it or not, if we are going to hold up recruiting rankings as the way forward, which we are currently doing, then we don't have much business being competitive with uga and Clemson or routinely beating Miami and ND. UNC is moving into that UM/ND tier, so putting them down as guaranteed losses makes sense.

 

[00Burdell]

UNC, Clemson, ND, uga will all be losses unless something strange happens to rosters via injuries or c19.

I respectfully subtract UNC from that list. While we could easily upset any of them, UNC is nowhere near a lock to beat us in the absence of an upset scenario. UNC has always had a solid roster but have rarely converted it into Wins. We will beat UNC barring the football Gods willing otherwise.

 

[gtrower]

Two things:

1. I think UNC is pretty much a guaranteed loss next year. For one, that 6-6 team led 38-15 before a garbage time score made us look slightly better. While we are improving, they are improving as well, and doing it with more highly ranked recruits in the process.

2. I think UNC in the short term may reach that same UM/ND tier that already exists. (typically top 8-15 recruiting classes)

Whether we want to admit it or not, if we are going to hold up recruiting rankings as the way forward, which we are currently doing, then we don't have much business being competitive with uga and Clemson or routinely beating Miami and ND. UNC is moving into that UM/ND tier, so putting them down as guaranteed losses makes sense.

I’m not saying you’re wrong - this is all guess work. But I’d invite you to translate “guaranteed loss” into a spread / betting odds that I will be happy to take. As I said earlier in this debate with another poster, right now UCF is favored over UNC week 1. And in no world do I consider UCF a guaranteed loss right now.

Especially before I see our OL/DL in fall camp. If our OL is terrible again (possible given the unknowns) then sure, chalk UNC up to a guaranteed loss along with VT, Miami, and UCF. If our OL is top 3rd of the ACC (possible given what we add) then hell no they’re not.

 

[slugboy]

I’m not saying you’re wrong - this is all guess work. But I’d invite you to translate “guaranteed loss” into a spread / betting odds that I will be happy to take. As I said earlier in this debate with another poster, right now UCF is favored over UNC week 1. And in no world do I consider UCF a guaranteed loss right now.

Especially before I see our OL/DL in fall camp. If our OL is terrible again (possible given the unknowns) then sure, chalk UNC up to a guaranteed loss along with VT, Miami, and UCF. If our OL is top 3rd of the ACC (possible given what we add) then hell no they’re not.

If our O line moves into the top third of the ACC next year, that’s a stunning improvement. Depending on where you looked or how you measured, we were at or near the bottom last season.
If we improve that much, we’ll field a really good team. We still have a brutal schedule, but we’ll look good


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[gtrower]

If our O line moves into the top third of the ACC next year, that’s a stunning improvement. Depending on where you looked or how you measured, we were at or near the bottom last season.
If we improve that much, we’ll field a really good team. We still have a brutal schedule, but we’ll look good


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Well we’re swapping a walk on center who had never taken a snap for a SR with almost 20 starts, an undersized guard for a transfer with double digit SEC starts, and a walk-on LT for a projected draft pick with 30ish starts. Only guy holding his spot will be DeFoor who is preseason All-ACC. And Quinney shifts to RT which should fit him nicely.

I haven’t done the math, but I’m guessing the OL we fielded at the end of the season had 10-20 previous starts total. And our starting OL against Clemson this year should be around 80ish? That’s a pretty dramatic transformation. Of course that’s all on paper.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

I’m not saying you’re wrong - this is all guess work. But I’d invite you to translate “guaranteed loss” into a spread / betting odds that I will be happy to take. As I said earlier in this debate with another poster, right now UCF is favored over UNC week 1. And in no world do I consider UCF a guaranteed loss right now.

Especially before I see our OL/DL in fall camp. If our OL is terrible again (possible given the unknowns) then sure, chalk UNC up to a guaranteed loss along with VT, Miami, and UCF. If our OL is top 3rd of the ACC (possible given what we add) then hell no they’re not.

Going off FPI, which has been a useful indicator, UCF is ranked 21st to UNC's 18th. GT is 55th, good for 6th in the Coastal, which is about where most have pegged us.

As for UNC vs UCF, currently UCF is favored by less than a FG at home, which means most people view that game as a toss up. It's also the first game of the season, and this is another shot for a pretty good UCF team to show up after having all summer to prep for the game.

As for me, I have UCF down as a loss in our schedule for next year. I'm not sure why we would pencil them in as a win. That game should be more competitive than some others, but UCF is a good squad returning most of it's production.

Now, as for a line for UNC vs VT, I am not a gambler so I don't have a clue what odds should be given, but I am thinking when they finally get posted we're gonna be dogs in the 10-14 point range.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

If our O line moves into the top third of the ACC next year, that’s a stunning improvement. Depending on where you looked or how you measured, we were at or near the bottom last season.
If we improve that much, we’ll field a really good team. We still have a brutal schedule, but we’ll look good


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I think we will look a whole lot better this year and yet our record is likely going to be similar to last years. If people aren't prepared for moral victories, this is not the season to tune in to GT football...

 

[gtrower]

Going off FPI, which has been a useful indicator, UCF is ranked 21st to UNC's 18th. GT is 55th, good for 6th in the Coastal, which is about where most have pegged us.

As for UNC vs UCF, currently UCF is favored by less than a FG at home, which means most people view that game as a toss up. It's also the first game of the season, and this is another shot for a pretty good UCF team to show up after having all summer to prep for the game.

As for me, I have UCF down as a loss in our schedule for next year. I'm not sure why we would pencil them in as a win. That game should be more competitive than some others, but UCF is a good squad returning most of it's production.

Now, as for a line for UNC vs VT, I am not a gambler so I don't have a clue what odds should be given, but I am thinking when they finally get posted we're gonna be dogs in the 10-14 point range.

Does FPI account for transfers? Cochran + Johnson (+ Cooper) is a major storyline. Basically if you had a wishlist from last season to make the team better you’d ask for:

1) new LT (projected draft pick transfer)
2) new OG (experienced transfer)
3) non-walk-on C (Cooper returns from injury)
4) pass rush threat (5* transfer)
5) quality DT (Lee returns from injury)

Not sure any of that would be captured in FPI. Most of my optimism hinges on fielding an above average OL. If we don’t then agree we could be a better team than last year and still win 3/4. But if the OL is good I see no reason we should fear anybody in the Coastal. Our defense is gonna be solid. And our run game could be as good as anybody’s outside of Clemson.

 

[slugboy]

Does FPI account for transfers? Cochran + Johnson (+ Cooper) is a major storyline. Basically if you had a wishlist from last season to make the team better you’d ask for:

1) new LT (projected draft pick transfer)
2) new OG (experienced transfer)
3) non-walk-on C (Cooper returns from injury)
4) pass rush threat (5* transfer)
5) quality DT (Lee returns from injury)

Not sure any of that would be captured in FPI. Most of my optimism hinges on fielding an above average OL. If we don’t then agree we could be a better team than last year and still win 3/4. But if the OL is good I see no reason we should fear anybody in the Coastal. Our defense is gonna be solid. And our run game could be as good as anybody’s outside of Clemson.

Connelly tries to account for starts—so, he does try to account for transfers. Having a player sit out a year after a transfer might put them below the radar.


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[Ibeeballin]

@gtrower we may not agree with our ranking will end up but I’m in totally in agreement with you on this UNC love fest. Hats off to them for this ‘21 class, but 6-6 to a guaranteed loss is laughable.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

@gtrower we may not agree with our ranking will end up but I’m in totally in agreement with you on this UNC love fest. Hats off to them for this ‘21 class, but 6-6 to a guaranteed loss is laughable.

So my question is how much do recruiting rankings really matter then? They've been out recruiting us for years, and have gotten even better under CMB. Arguably, CMB is the better head coach. (Until CGC proves something at the P5 level, you can't really rank him ahead of a guy with a NC on his resume) If we are all in on recruiting talent being the answer, and we acknowledge they just might have a better coach than we do, and we also look realistically at our current QB situation, much less OL, then I don't really see how they aren't a solid loss next year. I think in 2021 or 2022 the differential between us talent wise will be much narrower and our QB & OL situation should be much more in hand, but this year? Not so much...

 

[Jmonty71]

So my question is how much do recruiting rankings really matter then? They've been out recruiting us for years, and have gotten even better under CMB. Arguably, CMB is the better head coach. (Until CGC proves something at the P5 level, you can't really rank him ahead of a guy with a NC on his resume) If we are all in on recruiting talent being the answer, and we acknowledge they just might have a better coach than we do, and we also look realistically at our current QB situation, much less OL, then I don't really see how they aren't a solid loss next year. I think in 2021 or 2022 the differential between us talent wise will be much narrower and our QB & OL situation should be much more in hand, but this year? Not so much...

The question is, does recruiting ranking matter? The is a complex answer. Overall, I would say yes. However; recruiting ranking does not equal winning. Paul Johnson beat many teams, with much better recruiting rankings. I think systems, coaches ability to coach on the field, luck, players' desire to get better and determination are all "X" factors, in the recruiting = winning formula. While recruiting is a data set, it gets put in with a lot of other data sets to come out with the answers. That's the way I have always look at it. CMR, was a hell of a recruiter. I always thought his on the field coaching was boring and predictable. Probably why he didn't remain at UGA,

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

The question is, does recruiting ranking matter? The is a complex answer. Overall, I would say yes. However; recruiting ranking does not equal winning. Paul Johnson beat many teams, with much better recruiting rankings. I think systems, coaches ability to coach on the field, luck, players' desire to get better and determination are all "X" factors, in the recruiting = winning formula. While recruiting is a data set, it gets put in with a lot of other data sets to come out with the answers. That's the way I have always look at it. CMR, was a hell of a recruiter. I always thought his on the field coaching was boring and predictable. Probably why he didn't remain at UGA,

So, since we are now running the same offense as most teams around us, how important does recruiting become? Wht "x" factors do we currently possess that allows us to assume teams that outrecruit us won't beat us?

 

[MidtownJacket]

So, since we are now running the same offense as most teams around us, how important does recruiting become? Wht "x" factors do we currently possess that allows us to assume teams that outrecruit us won't beat us?

Player development (See CLC) ?