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FredJacket

FredJacket

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Another huge series this weekend as Tech travels to Durham. We are still a struggling team in all areas... nothing is easy for us. My wish: Win this series... get to 11 conference wins (minimum) and comfortable ahead of Duke, Pitt, & VT should tie-break scenarios come into play for seeding in the ACC tournament.
 

MWBATL

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Agreed. Plus, I would just like to see us stop beating ourselves. Geez, louise, can we PLEASE make people swing at 3-2 pitches instead of walking them (and having them later score)? I would much MUCH rather see them get base hits on pitches down the heart of the plate than what we do when we walk them by trying to hit a spot.
 

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FredJacket said:
Another huge series this weekend as Tech travels to Durham. We are still a struggling team in all areas... nothing is easy for us. My wish: Win this series... get to 11 conference wins (minimum) and comfortable ahead of Duke, Pitt, & VT should tie-break scenarios come into play for seeding in the ACC tournament.
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"We are still a struggling team in all areas... nothing is easy for us."

Evidence A: We barely beat a bad Pittsburgh team at home.
Evidence B: We got swept by one of the worst georgia teams in a long time.
Evidence C: We held UIC to 1 single run in the entire series and still didn't win the series.

Now, having said that, going 2-1 against Duke and 1-2 against Virginia at a minimum (3-3) should be enough to finish (12-18 in this scenario, we're 9-15 right now)) as high as #11. It would put us ahead of Boston College (currently 8-19), Virginia Tech (currently 8-16), Duke (currently 9-15), and Pittsburgh (currently 8-16). We already have tie breakers against Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh, so going at least 2-1 against Duke would cement that one too. All these teams finish with at least 1 difficult series left and 1 manageable series, just like us. So I think a 3-3 finish would put us at #11. Virginia has really fallen off this year, so winning more than 1 game at home against them seems a lot more reasonable than it would have a month ago.

Seeds #13, #14, #15 miss the ACC Tournament. So we have gotta finish ahead of 3 of these 4. Boston College is all but a lock to be last (why are they last in EVERY SPORT). And we already have tie breakers against 2 of the remaining 3. SO THERE IS A LOT LEFT TO PLAY FOR, just to make the tournament.

In the tournament, unfortunately I have bad news, whether we finish the #11 seed or the #12 seed. 1 of those 2 seeds will draw Louisville (they will either finish #1 or #2) at home, since the tournament is in Louisville. That is a disaster. North Carolina's remaining 2 series are against terrible Virginia Tech and Duke. Louisville is only up 1 game over North Carolina (with no direct head to head) and finishes @ Clemson and home against Florida State. I don't know what the head to heads look like, but its going to be a crap shoot for #1 and #2.

Seed #12 gets put into a round robin in the ACC Tournament with the #1 and #8 seed. That is possibly #1 Louisville AT HOME (the tourney is in Louisville) and someone like NC State or Miami. Obviously NC State or Miami are winnable. Louisville at home would be awful.

Seed #11 gets put into a round robin with the #2 seed and #7 seed. That is possibly North Carolina and again someone like NC State or Miami, or possibly Florida State.

And the more I think about it, drawing North Carolina is only marginably better. But given homefield advantage, I would choose to play them over Louisville 10 times out of 10. Louisville has 20 ACC wins and North Carolina has 19. Then you go all the way down to 16-8 Clemson before you get to the next team. So those 2 are it, and both will suck to play. But better to have a chance by being in the tournament than having no chance.
 
FredJacket

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bwelbo said:
"We are still a struggling team in all areas... nothing is easy for us."

Evidence A: We barely beat a bad Pittsburgh team at home.
Evidence B: We got swept by one of the worst georgia teams in a long time.
Evidence C: We held UIC to 1 single run in the entire series and still didn't win the series.

Now, having said that, going 2-1 against Duke and 1-2 against Virginia at a minimum (3-3) should be enough to finish (12-18 in this scenario, we're 9-15 right now)) as high as #11. It would put us ahead of Boston College (currently 8-19), Virginia Tech (currently 8-16), Duke (currently 9-15), and Pittsburgh (currently 8-16). We already have tie breakers against Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh, so going at least 2-1 against Duke would cement that one too. All these teams finish with at least 1 difficult series left and 1 manageable series, just like us. So I think a 3-3 finish would put us at #11. Virginia has really fallen off this year, so winning more than 1 game at home against them seems a lot more reasonable than it would have a month ago.

Seeds #13, #14, #15 miss the ACC Tournament. So we have gotta finish ahead of 3 of these 4. Boston College is all but a lock to be last (why are they last in EVERY SPORT). And we already have tie breakers against 2 of the remaining 3. SO THERE IS A LOT LEFT TO PLAY FOR, just to make the tournament.

In the tournament, unfortunately I have bad news, whether we finish the #11 seed or the #12 seed. 1 of those 2 seeds will draw Louisville (they will either finish #1 or #2) at home, since the tournament is in Louisville. That is a disaster. North Carolina's remaining 2 series are against terrible Virginia Tech and Duke. Louisville is only up 1 game over North Carolina (with no direct head to head) and finishes @ Clemson and home against Florida State. I don't know what the head to heads look like, but its going to be a crap shoot for #1 and #2.

Seed #12 gets put into a round robin in the ACC Tournament with the #1 and #8 seed. That is possibly #1 Louisville AT HOME (the tourney is in Louisville) and someone like NC State or Miami. Obviously NC State or Miami are winnable. Louisville at home would be awful.

Seed #11 gets put into a round robin with the #2 seed and #7 seed. That is possibly North Carolina and again someone like NC State or Miami, or possibly Florida State.

And the more I think about it, drawing North Carolina is only marginably better. But given homefield advantage, I would choose to play them over Louisville 10 times out of 10. Louisville has 20 ACC wins and North Carolina has 19. Then you go all the way down to 16-8 Clemson before you get to the next team. So those 2 are it, and both will suck to play. But better to have a chance by being in the tournament than having no chance.
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If I followed your post, I think you were counting up from the bottom to get us to #11 (in your scenario). However, you used #15 as the bottom. There are only 14 baseball teams in the conference (no Syracuse baseball). Therefore, I THINK you would agree your scenario gets us to #10. Feel better now? :)
 

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FredJacket said:
If I followed your post, I think you were counting up from the bottom to get us to #11 (in your scenario). However, you used #15 as the bottom. There are only 14 baseball teams in the conference (no Syracuse baseball). Therefore, I THINK you would agree your scenario gets us to #10. Feel better now? :)
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You are correct and you just made my day.

OMG you just made my day. Because if we do finish #10, that puts us in a pool with #3 and #6. Which is probably Clemson and then a Miami/NC State/Florida State type team. Oh wait, CLEMSON. Sigh.

But in all seriousness, we certainly stand a lot better shot at least making the tournament! Thanks for that catch.

I'd be interested to get your opinion of Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson as the top seed in a round robin. I'm assuming Louisville would be the absolute worst due to home field advantage. But honestly really none of them we'd want to play would we? We would just choose Clemson by default since they are 'only' 16-8 and hope to strike lightning in a bottle that 1 game?
 
FredJacket

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bwelbo said:
You are correct and you just made my day.

OMG you just made my day. Because if we do finish #10, that puts us in a pool with #3 and #6. Which is probably Clemson and then a Miami/NC State/Florida State type team. Oh wait, CLEMSON. Sigh.

But in all seriousness, we certainly stand a lot better shot at least making the tournament! Thanks for that catch.

I'd be interested to get your opinion of Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson as the top seed in a round robin. I'm assuming Louisville would be the absolute worst due to home field advantage. But honestly really none of them we'd want to play would we? We would just choose Clemson by default since they are 'only' 16-8 and hope to strike lightning in a bottle that 1 game?
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Some of this was discussed over on the 2017 ACC Baseball Thread
First of all... IMO... for any team ending up in Louisville's pool. That just sucks. It's a lock (almost) they will be a #1 or #2 seed. They will play all their tournament games in the 7pm time slot and (I assume) pack the place. Truly.. a home field advantage. Not to mention the fact Louisville is a juggernaut with a team that dominates most games.

The rest of the pools? It is impossible to avoid a great baseball team. It will be UNC, Clemson, WF, or UVA. I consider all of those teams far better than Tech. The good news... it IS baseball & and anything can happen. All any team has to do is win 2 in a row (both pool play games) and you are on to the semi-finals. I'm hoping we are a #9 or #10 seed. Regardless.. we are what we are. Not too good compared to MOST of the teams that will be in the tournament. Need to pull off that upset to advance there.
 

65Jacket

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Something not to be overlooked, Pitt gave us 2 unearned runs in each of the three games. Take those away and we lose the first two.
 

ieattorney

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bwelbo said:
"We are still a struggling team in all areas... nothing is easy for us."

Evidence A: We barely beat a bad Pittsburgh team at home.
Evidence B: We got swept by one of the worst georgia teams in a long time.
Evidence C: We held UIC to 1 single run in the entire series and still didn't win the series.

Now, having said that, going 2-1 against Duke and 1-2 against Virginia at a minimum (3-3) should be enough to finish (12-18 in this scenario, we're 9-15 right now)) as high as #11. It would put us ahead of Boston College (currently 8-19), Virginia Tech (currently 8-16), Duke (currently 9-15), and Pittsburgh (currently 8-16). We already have tie breakers against Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh, so going at least 2-1 against Duke would cement that one too. All these teams finish with at least 1 difficult series left and 1 manageable series, just like us. So I think a 3-3 finish would put us at #11. Virginia has really fallen off this year, so winning more than 1 game at home against them seems a lot more reasonable than it would have a month ago.

Seeds #13, #14, #15 miss the ACC Tournament. So we have gotta finish ahead of 3 of these 4. Boston College is all but a lock to be last (why are they last in EVERY SPORT). And we already have tie breakers against 2 of the remaining 3. SO THERE IS A LOT LEFT TO PLAY FOR, just to make the tournament.

In the tournament, unfortunately I have bad news, whether we finish the #11 seed or the #12 seed. 1 of those 2 seeds will draw Louisville (they will either finish #1 or #2) at home, since the tournament is in Louisville. That is a disaster. North Carolina's remaining 2 series are against terrible Virginia Tech and Duke. Louisville is only up 1 game over North Carolina (with no direct head to head) and finishes @ Clemson and home against Florida State. I don't know what the head to heads look like, but its going to be a crap shoot for #1 and #2.

Seed #12 gets put into a round robin in the ACC Tournament with the #1 and #8 seed. That is possibly #1 Louisville AT HOME (the tourney is in Louisville) and someone like NC State or Miami. Obviously NC State or Miami are winnable. Louisville at home would be awful.

Seed #11 gets put into a round robin with the #2 seed and #7 seed. That is possibly North Carolina and again someone like NC State or Miami, or possibly Florida State.

And the more I think about it, drawing North Carolina is only marginably better. But given homefield advantage, I would choose to play them over Louisville 10 times out of 10. Louisville has 20 ACC wins and North Carolina has 19. Then you go all the way down to 16-8 Clemson before you get to the next team. So those 2 are it, and both will suck to play. But better to have a chance by being in the tournament than having no chance.
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There is no #15 seed Syracuse has no baseball team
 
FredJacket

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Statistically, Ga Tech and Duke look a lot alike.
(Tech's number listed first)

BA: .285/.269
Scoring: 6.3/6.3
Slugging: .469/.407
OBP: .360/.356

ERA: 5.07/4.94
K/BB: 1.56/2.15
WHIP: 1.54/1.37

Fldg: .970/.973

I'd feel better if this were happening in Atlanta. Need a focused effort by everyone from pitch 1 to the final out of the 3rd game. Just cannot make mistakes... no margin for that. Go JACKETS!!
 

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FredJacket said:
Statistically, Ga Tech and Duke look a lot alike.
(Tech's number listed first)

BA: .285/.269
Scoring: 6.3/6.3
Slugging: .469/.407
OBP: .360/.356

ERA: 5.07/4.94
K/BB: 1.56/2.15
WHIP: 1.54/1.37

Fldg: .970/.973

I'd feel better if this were happening in Atlanta. Need a focused effort by everyone from pitch 1 to the final out of the 3rd game. Just cannot make mistakes... no margin for that. Go JACKETS!!
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Given this and our history this year, I will make the following 2 predictions:
1) This is a team we should absolutely beat 2-1 with an outside shot at sweeping 3-0.
2) Since we've lost close games all year, throwing many away on our own, I'll guess we go 1-2.
 
RoosterJacket

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What's up with all the away weekend series' having terrible weather this year? Durham forecast calls for rain/storms tomorrow and Saturday with highs in upper 60's.
 

senoiajacket

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bwelbo said:
Given this and our history this year, I will make the following 2 predictions:
1) This is a team we should absolutely beat 2-1 with an outside shot at sweeping 3-0.
2) Since we've lost close games all year, throwing many away on our own, I'll guess we go 1-2.
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The caveat here is it looks like Dook, much like Pitt, is adept and gifting games as well. So, although lately I have not had much "hope" w/ respect to GT baseball, this gives me some hope. The fact that we have to hope the other team beats themselves says a lot about the state of the program!
 
GTNavyNuke

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FredJacket said:
Statistically, Ga Tech and Duke look a lot alike.
(Tech's number listed first)

BA: .285/.269
Scoring: 6.3/6.3
Slugging: .469/.407
OBP: .360/.356

ERA: 5.07/4.94
K/BB: 1.56/2.15
WHIP: 1.54/1.37

Fldg: .970/.973

I'd feel better if this were happening in Atlanta. Need a focused effort by everyone from pitch 1 to the final out of the 3rd game. Just cannot make mistakes... no margin for that. Go JACKETS!!
Click to expand...

One other stat: GT SOS 21st, Flukies 120th. Further confirmation that Flukies are *******.
 
GTNavyNuke

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bwelbo said:
............. SO THERE IS A LOT LEFT TO PLAY FOR, just to make the tournament.....................
Click to expand...

+1. This season has made me manic-depressive more than most. Probably because I deluded myself that this year would be different. Regardless, I really want to see us sweep Duke so we do not miss the tournament for the first time since the ACC tourney was held and second because it is Duke. Losing the series to UVa would not be a disgrace since UVa is good enough to make it to the CWS. But Duke is ranked 120th after losing @ East Carolina on Wednesday.

Chance of rain in Durham @4PM this afternoon is 23% currently and goes up to 43% by 7PM. Rain stopping after 2PM on Saturday. So I think we get all three games in, maybe with a double header or late Saturday game. We need the wins, not cancelled games.
 
FredJacket

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Based on forecast of Friday in Durham... may want to make sure we have (and maintain) a lead after 5 innings. The chances of rain are increasing steadily as afternoon/evening progresses.

I think I have that right. The shortened game would be "official", correct? ...if it is called after 5 innings and a team has a lead... even though we have more baseball over the weekend in Durham. Ex. If after 7 innings, Tech is ahead and rain comes... we'd get the win right there...game over? They would not return on Sat to "complete" the shortened game. That would only happen if game was called before completing the 5th or game was tied.. ??
 
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