Duke/GT 10/5 set for an 8pm kick on ACC Network

[stinger78]

I expect for us to probe the Dook front 7 early, but I will be pi$$ed if we have difficulty and don’t go to a strong vertical game pretty quick.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I am going to take the other side. Duke has played teams that are weak on offense and defense. UNC was strongest and they were down to them 20 at half. Our offense will open up with passing and will always have more vertical routes which will get duke lbs dbs away from LOS.
We have played 2 teams with good talent so i expect us to be ready. The dbs will not play a soft zone so thier qb will have tight windows. We win 34-14

Of course CGC has spent all his time at UNC preparing his defense for Tech.

 

[bensaysitathome]

I don't think Duke has looked very impressive, but at the end of the day they have found ways to win.

This is what I think of when considering our chances against Duke.

They're not world-beaters, but they've managed to win. When that was us in Key's interim time, we called it "well coached." I'm not sure I'd normally use that term for anything Manny Diaz touches, but right now that's what the results are indicating.

I don't think anyone believes they out-talent us. If we clean up our mistakes (read: King's baffling throw deep in our own endzone), play our brand of TOP-football, and show up with a halfway decent defensive game plan, we win this by 10+. If their D line controls the day, and Haynes King starts feeling the pressure to play hero, a single mistake can cost us this one.

 

[slugboy]

I've probably posted SP+ and FEI as much as anyone here, but with our weaknesses against the pass, we make opposing QBs look like Tom Brady.

I don’t think we can just look at one or two numbers. How we match up matters. We need to find weaknesses to take advantage of.

Our offense is really good, but inefficient. The OL hasn't been producing for the run. But it's our pass defense that's the story of the season, even against Ga State.

Here's the GameOnPaper preview: https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401635570

Duke offense vs our defense

	Duke Offense		GT Defense
#99	-0.08	EPA/Pass	0.29	#128
#122	-0.13	EPA/Rush	-0.21	#14
#112	39.0%	Available Yards %	44.2%	#78
#45	Own 30	Starting Field Position	Own 24	#5
#84	-0.02	Early Downs EPA/Play	-0.01	#75
#123	33.8%	3rd/4th Down Success	43.2%	#77
#40	6.51	Avg 3rd Down Distance	7.92	#22

They can't pass, and we can't defend the pass. They're worse converting first downs than we are defending them. We allow top much on first and second, but they don't get anything. It's a battle of who learns to play first.

	Duke Defense		GT Offense
#16	-0.27	EPA/Pass	0.37	#7
#16	-0.20	EPA/Rush	0.09	#42
#15	31.1%	Available Yards %	61.5%	#19
#123	Own 32	Starting FP	Own 28	#67
#31	-0.15	Early Downs EPA/Play	0.21	#15
#3	26.3%	3rd Down Success	46.3%	#51
#20	7.94	Avg 3rd Down Distance	6.15	#23

They play defense. This is a rough team to get out of a rushing rut against—they’re very good agains the run. We also need to keep way ahead of the chains, which we’re terrible about.

You have to really hope the bye week helped, plus getting healthy, because the matchups are pretty rough.

 

[slugboy]

There’s a different preview at https://www.collegefootballinsiders.com/matchup_preview/?team1=Duke&team2=Georgia Tech.

They predict (roughly) Duke 30-GT 24. Short version, for the strength on strength matchup, they think the Duke defense is better than our offense. For the weakness on weakness matchup, they think our defense is even worse than Duke’s offense (and don’t think much of our run defense).

DUKE OFF VS GEORGIA TECH DEF​

0.061	30	EPA/RUSH	40	-0.058
-0.066	94	EPA/DROPBACK	120	0.107
40.9%	83	ECKEL RATE	52	37.0%
4.11	29	PTS/ECKEL	83	3.43
30.6	21	FIELD POSITION	3	24.3
-0.7%	61	RROE	48	-0.1%
0.048	54	EARLY DOWNS EPA	66	-0.030
27.0%	126	3RD/4TH DOWN SUCCESS	80	40.0%

DUKE DEF VS GEORGIA TECH OFF​

-0.105	17	EPA/RUSH	56	0.020
-0.121	11	EPA/DROPBACK	17	0.124
31.9%	33	ECKEL RATE	6	64.0%
2.28	10	PTS/ECKEL	19	4.31
27.7	77	FIELD POSITION	53	28.4
2.4%	74	RROE	94	4.7%
-0.165	24	EARLY DOWNS EPA	32	0.134
28.0%	8	3RD/4TH DOWN SUCCESS	24	47.4%

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Short version.

We are not as good as we wanted us to be this year.

Every game this year will be a one-off event determined by matchups (in which we will rarely have any distinct advantages) and mistake free execution and a sound game plan.

I just don’t see the Duke game being at all easy for us unless we see something out of this team we haven’t seen since the FSU game.

 

[UgaBlows]

I don’t know what to make of duke’s stats and ratings (and i know it’s supposed to be adjusted for opponent but i’m not so sure how accurate those results are?) because they have played all bad teams, I feel like our boys are def more battle tested going into this

 

[Ash]

I don't know anything about Duke. I know if our OL doesn't take a step up in consistency, we are not going to beat anyone.

 

[Root4GT]

FSU was a road game where we sat on the “home side.” We gave up a home game for that. It was great exposure at the time, but that is now tarnished badly.

We had the opportunity to follow up with wins against Syracuse and Louisville. We crapped the bed in both games! Still we had the opportunity after getting great National Exposure!

 

[Root4GT]

I don’t know what to make of duke’s stats and ratings (and i know it’s supposed to be adjusted for opponent but i’m not so sure how accurate those results are?) because they have played all bad teams, I feel like our boys are def more battle tested going into this

We have played 2 P4 teams with winning records. Their records against P4 teams are 1-1 each. We are the only win either Syracuse or Louisville has against a P4 team. We haven't played a harder schedule then Duke to this point.

 

[yeti92]

We have played 2 P4 teams with winning records. Their records against P4 teams are 1-1 each. We are the only win either Syracuse or Louisville has against a P4 team. We haven't played a harder schedule then Duke to this point.

That's laughably incorrect. Here are current rankings for the teams each of us has played so far.

Duke:
Elon (1-4) NR (FCS)
Northwestern (2-2) #71
UCONN (3-2) #97
MTSU (1-4) #123
UNC (3-2) #72

Average FBS opponent ranking = 91

Georgia Tech:
FSU (1-4) #89
GSU (2-3) #96
Syracuse (3-1) #53
VMI (0-4) NR (FCS)
Louisville (4-1) #20

Average FBS opponent ranking = 65

 

[Techwood Relict]

Georgia Tech:
FSU (1-4) #89
GSU (2-3) #96
Syracuse (3-1) #53
VMI (0-4) NR (FCS)
Louisville (4-1) #20

In fairness, that fsu ranking is inflated. They are not the #89 team in the country.....

 

[MacJacket]

Duke is not going to be easy. Elko built a good foundation and Manny is stacking wins. Their defense is feisty and that RB looked solid against UNC.

 

[57jacket]

Georgia Tech looking to upend undefeated Duke on Saturday

The Yellow Jackets seem to play at a higher level when their backs are against the wall.

www.ajc.com

 

[Bogey]

Duke is not going to be easy. Elko & Santucci built a good foundation on defense and Manny is stacking wins. Their defense is feisty and that RB looked solid against UNC.

FIFY

 

[Root4GT]

That's laughably incorrect. Here are current rankings for the teams each of us has played so far.

Duke:
Elon (1-4) NR (FCS)
Northwestern (2-2) #71
UCONN (3-2) #97
MTSU (1-4) #123
UNC (3-2) #72

Average FBS opponent ranking = 91

Georgia Tech:
FSU (1-4) #89
GSU (2-3) #96
Syracuse (3-1) #53
VMI (0-4) NR (FCS)
Louisville (4-1) #20

Average FBS opponent ranking = 65

Who have Louisville and Syracuse beat that are P4 teams? Combined they have 2 P4 wins. Those wins are both over GT. So Louisville and Syracuse are 0-2 against all P4 shcools not named GT. They are no more impressive than Duke at this point. We are less impressive as our only P4 win is FSU.

I hope we win. But acting like Duke played nobody is grossly misleading. Neither has the 2 teams we already lost to.

 

[stinger78]

Duke is not going to be easy. Elko built a good foundation and Manny is stacking wins. Their defense is feisty and that RB looked solid against UNC.

You and I would look solid running the ball on that UNC D.

 

[awbuzz]

You and I would look solid running the ball on that UNC D.

Put me in coach!

 

[yeti92]

Who have Louisville and Syracuse beat that are P4 teams? Combined they have 2 P4 wins. Those wins are both over GT. So Louisville and Syracuse are 0-2 against all P4 shcools not named GT. They are no more impressive than Duke at this point. We are less impressive as our only P4 win is FSU.

I hope we win. But acting like Duke played nobody is grossly misleading. Neither has the 2 teams we already lost to.

Ohio State only has 1 P4 win, I guess they equally difficult to UNC in your mind.

Let's follow your P4 wins rabbit hole of Duke opponents with P4 wins. UNC has 1 P4 win, over Minnesota who has 0. Oh, that's the end of the rabbit hole, nobody else they've played has a P4 win.

As you mentioned, Louisville and Cuse both have P4 wins over Tech, who has 1 P4 win over FSU, who has 1 P4 win over Cal, who has 1 P4 win over Auburn. GA State also has 1 P4 win over Vandy, who has 1 P4 win over VT. So even if you exclude Louisville and Syracuse, the teams we've beaten have beaten more P4 opponents and better P4 opponents than Duke's have.

 

[Root4GT]

Ohio State only has 1 P4 win, I guess they equally difficult to UNC in your mind.

Let's follow your P4 wins rabbit hole of Duke opponents with P4 wins. UNC has 1 P4 win, over Minnesota who has 0. Oh, that's the end of the rabbit hole, nobody else they've played has a P4 win.

As you mentioned, Louisville and Cuse both have P4 wins over Tech, who has 1 P4 win over FSU, who has 1 P4 win over Cal, who has 1 P4 win over Auburn. GA State also has 1 P4 win over Vandy, who has 1 P4 win over VT. So even if you exclude Louisville and Syracuse, the teams we've beaten have beaten more P4 opponents and better P4 opponents than Duke's have.

So what's your rational for saying Duke hasn't played anyone compared to GT? Who have we played that is a good team? There is no basis to say Louisville is a top 20 team except they rolled an FCS and a very bad G6 team. Duke's schedule is roughly equivalent to GT's up to this point.

I hope we are the better team but there is nothing that has occurred in either team's first 5 games to say GT is a superior team based on performance. WE may be the better team and we may not be the better team. We will find out Saturday night. Until then is simply a wild *** guess who is better at this point.

You are what your record says you are. We are 3-2 and Duke is 5-0! Lets hope we are 4-2 and uke is 5-1 after the game!