Duke/GT 10/5 set for an 8pm kick on ACC Network

[stinger78]

I expect for us to probe the Dook front 7 early, but I will be pi$$ed if we have difficulty and don’t go to a strong vertical game pretty quick.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

I am going to take the other side. Duke has played teams that are weak on offense and defense. UNC was strongest and they were down to them 20 at half. Our offense will open up with passing and will always have more vertical routes which will get duke lbs dbs away from LOS.
We have played 2 teams with good talent so i expect us to be ready. The dbs will not play a soft zone so thier qb will have tight windows. We win 34-14

Of course CGC has spent all his time at UNC preparing his defense for Tech.

 

[bensaysitathome]

I don't think Duke has looked very impressive, but at the end of the day they have found ways to win.

This is what I think of when considering our chances against Duke.

They're not world-beaters, but they've managed to win. When that was us in Key's interim time, we called it "well coached." I'm not sure I'd normally use that term for anything Manny Diaz touches, but right now that's what the results are indicating.

I don't think anyone believes they out-talent us. If we clean up our mistakes (read: King's baffling throw deep in our own endzone), play our brand of TOP-football, and show up with a halfway decent defensive game plan, we win this by 10+. If their D line controls the day, and Haynes King starts feeling the pressure to play hero, a single mistake can cost us this one.

 

[slugboy]

I've probably posted SP+ and FEI as much as anyone here, but with our weaknesses against the pass, we make opposing QBs look like Tom Brady.

I don’t think we can just look at one or two numbers. How we match up matters. We need to find weaknesses to take advantage of.

Our offense is really good, but inefficient. The OL hasn't been producing for the run. But it's our pass defense that's the story of the season, even against Ga State.

Here's the GameOnPaper preview: https://gameonpaper.com/cfb/game/401635570

Duke offense vs our defense

	Duke Offense		GT Defense
#99	-0.08	EPA/Pass	0.29	#128
#122	-0.13	EPA/Rush	-0.21	#14
#112	39.0%	Available Yards %	44.2%	#78
#45	Own 30	Starting Field Position	Own 24	#5
#84	-0.02	Early Downs EPA/Play	-0.01	#75
#123	33.8%	3rd/4th Down Success	43.2%	#77
#40	6.51	Avg 3rd Down Distance	7.92	#22

They can't pass, and we can't defend the pass. They're worse converting first downs than we are defending them. We allow top much on first and second, but they don't get anything. It's a battle of who learns to play first.

	Duke Defense		GT Offense
#16	-0.27	EPA/Pass	0.37	#7
#16	-0.20	EPA/Rush	0.09	#42
#15	31.1%	Available Yards %	61.5%	#19
#123	Own 32	Starting FP	Own 28	#67
#31	-0.15	Early Downs EPA/Play	0.21	#15
#3	26.3%	3rd Down Success	46.3%	#51
#20	7.94	Avg 3rd Down Distance	6.15	#23

They play defense. This is a rough team to get out of a rushing rut against—they’re very good agains the run. We also need to keep way ahead of the chains, which we’re terrible about.

You have to really hope the bye week helped, plus getting healthy, because the matchups are pretty rough.

 

[slugboy]

There’s a different preview at https://www.collegefootballinsiders.com/matchup_preview/?team1=Duke&team2=Georgia Tech.

They predict (roughly) Duke 30-GT 24. Short version, for the strength on strength matchup, they think the Duke defense is better than our offense. For the weakness on weakness matchup, they think our defense is even worse than Duke’s offense (and don’t think much of our run defense).

DUKE OFF VS GEORGIA TECH DEF​

0.061	30	EPA/RUSH	40	-0.058
-0.066	94	EPA/DROPBACK	120	0.107
40.9%	83	ECKEL RATE	52	37.0%
4.11	29	PTS/ECKEL	83	3.43
30.6	21	FIELD POSITION	3	24.3
-0.7%	61	RROE	48	-0.1%
0.048	54	EARLY DOWNS EPA	66	-0.030
27.0%	126	3RD/4TH DOWN SUCCESS	80	40.0%

DUKE DEF VS GEORGIA TECH OFF​

-0.105	17	EPA/RUSH	56	0.020
-0.121	11	EPA/DROPBACK	17	0.124
31.9%	33	ECKEL RATE	6	64.0%
2.28	10	PTS/ECKEL	19	4.31
27.7	77	FIELD POSITION	53	28.4
2.4%	74	RROE	94	4.7%
-0.165	24	EARLY DOWNS EPA	32	0.134
28.0%	8	3RD/4TH DOWN SUCCESS	24	47.4%

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Short version.

We are not as good as we wanted us to be this year.

Every game this year will be a one-off event determined by matchups (in which we will rarely have any distinct advantages) and mistake free execution and a sound game plan.

I just don’t see the Duke game being at all easy for us unless we see something out of this team we haven’t seen since the FSU game.

 

[UgaBlows]

I don’t know what to make of duke’s stats and ratings (and i know it’s supposed to be adjusted for opponent but i’m not so sure how accurate those results are?) because they have played all bad teams, I feel like our boys are def more battle tested going into this

 

[Ash]

I don't know anything about Duke. I know if our OL doesn't take a step up in consistency, we are not going to beat anyone.