At one loss I find it hard to believe that we wouldn't make it. There's only so many seasons that have ended with 3 major undefeated schools.
Let's assume we end up with one loss and win the ACC (we won't go if we have 2). That means we beat 4 top 10/15 teams, including one from the SEC. Now its possible those teams fall out of contention, but I don't see there being other top teams that can say that. TCU/Baylor plays Ok St, Oklahoma, and Baylor/TCU - that's not even 3 ranked teams and they won't play a conference championship. Even if they went undefeated it would be a debate - if they have one loss we would go over them.
A team like USCw has one of the best OOC schedules in the Pac12, including ND, UCLA, and Oregon - that's probably probably equivalent to our toughest three, which leaves Clemson to cover. Then they got two more ranked opponents in Arizona and Utah. Assuming we play Clemson or FSU twice, and we've got the harder schedule.
Even the Dwags in the mighty SEC don't have a clearly tougher schedule than us. Sure they play Bama. But their next three toughest are us, Mizzou, Auburn. We go them, Notre Dame, Climpson. If they have to play bama twice, I think it's largely a wash (I don't see much difference between Tenn and Fla as opposed to dook and Miami).