I think we have a chance to win if ... we make fewer mistakes and we improve field position.
I don't think TOP is meaningful for a TO offense. Should be a good game.
I'm sorry, but I think you're wrong about TOP.
Ever since Bill Yoeman fielded the veer, one of the basic ideas in TO offenses has been to hold on to the ball and keep the opposing Ds on the field. If you do that (and play a little D yourself), by the end of the half the D on the other side will face up to their worse nightmare: on the field, tired, behind, and no end in sight as your opponents hold on to the ball and drive relentlessly down field. Their O gets frustrated too; they're behind (or not safely ahead) and know they aren't going to get too many more chances. And when they get on the field, they make mistakes, That's part of the basics of how the veer works, how Ballard's wishbone works, how the Crowder/Osborne I-bone works, and how Coach's spread option works.
I can see where you are coming from because the shotgun spread offenses so prevalent today don't work that way and include option plays. But they are generally not triple option plays; almost all the options in a shotgun spread are double options, very like the speed option we run. Also, these teams run a lot of run/pass options with their QBs (Kelly at Ole Miss is a master at this). They depend on scoring more quickly and piling up enough points early to win games. Well and good; it's a strategy that can work well, especially if you have really excellent skill players. But that isn't how
our offense works.