Coronavirus Thread

[TooTall]

The link that you referenced states the opposite of your assertion by the way.

Guess you really can't read with comprehension.

• If you are found to be infected with a common coronavirus (229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1), that does not mean you are infected with the 2019 novel coronavirus.
• There are different tests to determine if you are infected with 2019 novel coronavirus. Your healthcare provider can determine if you should be tested.

You don't test someone 3 times for the common cold and just because you test positive for the common cold, does not mean that you have covid-19, I agree.
But with covid-19 testing, you can only have a common cold, and render a positive covid-19 test.

Additional COVID-19 Questions - Penn Medicine

As the coronavirus pandemic continues, doctors and researchers are learning more about the COVID-19 and getting additional questions from patients.

www.pennmedicine.org

"Since COVID-19 tests are new, knowing the accuracy is challenging. The accuracy and predictive values of SARS-CoV-2 testing have not been evaluated, and the accuracy of testing depends on which test is used, the type of specimen tested, how it was collected and the duration of illness."

My reason behind the statement is the possibility. The CDC and Penn Medicine statements do not counter that at all.

And just look at the numbers and charts again. Every metric in Georgia is trending down.

COVID-19 Status Report

These data represent confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the Georgia Department of Public Health.

dph.georgia.gov

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Guess you really can't read with comprehension.

• If you are found to be infected with a common coronavirus (229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1), that does not mean you are infected with the 2019 novel coronavirus.
• There are different tests to determine if you are infected with 2019 novel coronavirus. Your healthcare provider can determine if you should be tested.

You don't test someone 3 times for the common cold and just because you test positive for the common cold, does not mean that you have covid-19, I agree.
But with covid-19 testing, you can only have a common cold, and render a positive covid-19 test.

Additional COVID-19 Questions - Penn Medicine

As the coronavirus pandemic continues, doctors and researchers are learning more about the COVID-19 and getting additional questions from patients.

www.pennmedicine.org

"Since COVID-19 tests are new, knowing the accuracy is challenging. The accuracy and predictive values of SARS-CoV-2 testing have not been evaluated, and the accuracy of testing depends on which test is used, the type of specimen tested, how it was collected and the duration of illness."

My reason behind the statement is the possibility. The CDC and Penn Medicine statements do not counter that at all.

And just look at the numbers and charts again. Every metric in Georgia is trending down.

COVID-19 Status Report

These data represent confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the Georgia Department of Public Health.

dph.georgia.gov

Stop digging that hole. (And insulting people )

 

[RonJohn]

Guess you really can't read with comprehension.

• If you are found to be infected with a common coronavirus (229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1), that does not mean you are infected with the 2019 novel coronavirus.
• There are different tests to determine if you are infected with 2019 novel coronavirus. Your healthcare provider can determine if you should be tested.

You don't test someone 3 times for the common cold and just because you test positive for the common cold, does not mean that you have covid-19, I agree.
But with covid-19 testing, you can only have a common cold, and render a positive covid-19 test.

Additional COVID-19 Questions - Penn Medicine

As the coronavirus pandemic continues, doctors and researchers are learning more about the COVID-19 and getting additional questions from patients.

www.pennmedicine.org

"Since COVID-19 tests are new, knowing the accuracy is challenging. The accuracy and predictive values of SARS-CoV-2 testing have not been evaluated, and the accuracy of testing depends on which test is used, the type of specimen tested, how it was collected and the duration of illness."

My reason behind the statement is the possibility. The CDC and Penn Medicine statements do not counter that at all.

Penn Medicine says that the accuracy hasn't been evaluated. The full quote is:

How accurate is COVID testing?
Since COVID-19 tests are new, knowing the accuracy is challenging. The accuracy and predictive values of SARS-CoV-2 testing have not been evaluated, and the accuracy of testing depends on which test is used, the type of specimen tested, how it was collected and the duration of illness.
No medical test is 100% accurate for many reasons, including error and timing of the test. Because it is possible to get a negative result even when you have coronavirus, it is important to be careful even when you receive a negative result. Some doctors recommend quarantining yourself until symptom-free for at least 72 hours.

What part of that indicates that the common cold will make a COVID-19 test result positive? The SARS-COV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, is a different virus than other coronoviruses. The test to determine if you are infected with SARS-COV-2 is different than the test for normal coronaviruses. The link you posted from the CDC specifically says that those tests are different. Like I asked before, can you tell a difference between a 1908 Model-T and a 2021 Bronco? By your logic, they are both cars, so there isn't a difference.

How does unknown accuracy equate to showing results from other viruses? Does it also detect bacteria? Does it also detect THC to see if the person has smoked weed? Does it also detect blood alcohol level?

And just look at the numbers and charts again. Every metric in Georgia is trending down.

COVID-19 Status Report

These data represent confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the Georgia Department of Public Health.

dph.georgia.gov

Which metrics in particular are going down? I highly suspect you are misinterpreting some of the charts.

 

[armeck]

Penn Medicine says that the accuracy hasn't been evaluated. The full quote is:

What part of that indicates that the common cold will make a COVID-19 test result positive? The SARS-COV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, is a different virus than other coronoviruses. The test to determine if you are infected with SARS-COV-2 is different than the test for normal coronaviruses. The link you posted from the CDC specifically says that those tests are different. Like I asked before, can you tell a difference between a 1908 Model-T and a 2021 Bronco? By your logic, they are both cars, so there isn't a difference.

How does unknown accuracy equate to showing results from other viruses? Does it also detect bacteria? Does it also detect THC to see if the person has smoked weed? Does it also detect blood alcohol level?




Which metrics in particular are going down? I highly suspect you are misinterpreting some of the charts.

If a person doesn't understand the 14 day window dataset, then it would appear that the numbers are going down.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

The link that you referenced states the opposite of your assertion by the way.

How does it do that? It doesn't actually mention the common cold, but the symptoms listed are certainly symptoms for the common cold, among other things. It does not mention any Covid 1 - 18 viruses though, nor should it.

 

[Lotta Booze]

Common Human Coronaviruses | CDC

Provides overview of the Common Human Coronavirus, including symptoms, transmission, prevention of viral respiratory infections, treatment, and testing.

www.cdc.gov

Man that took all of 3 seconds on google to find. And the symptoms listed are for the common cold, not covid, but the point is that they are only testing for covid, not covid-19, so if you have any of the other covids out there, including the common cold, you will come back as a positive.

3 seconds to google but you should probably read what you post, it doesn't say what you think it's saying.

"There are different tests to determine if you are infected with 2019 novel coronavirus."

 

[RonJohn]

How does it do that? It doesn't actually mention the common cold, but the symptoms listed are certainly symptoms for the common cold, among other things. It does not mention any Covid 1 - 18 viruses though, nor should it.

It says that a test result for common coronaviruses does not indicate COVID-19. It says that there are different tests to detect COVID-19.

@bwelbo wasn't arguing that none of the symptoms of COVID-19 are similar to other coronaviruses. He was arguing against a statement that being infected with the common cold will cause a COVID-19 test to return a positive result.

EDIT: A different poster made a statement that if you are infected with COVID-1 thru COVID-18 that you will test positive for COVID-19. @bwelbo was not the person who started that there are COVID-1-18.

 

[RonJohn]

If a person doesn't understand the 14 day window dataset, then it would appear that the numbers are going down.

There isn't a good way to immediately look at data that is at least a few days old, and up to two weeks old. If you look at results day of report, you need to understand that the data can be extremely noisy and that even the last few days might not be a good indication. If you look at results posted day of symptoms or death, you need to understand that the data isn't accurate until you go back a couple of weeks.

There is nothing wrong with looking at data either way. You just have to understand what it is you are looking at and what the limitations of the data are.

 

[MWBATL]

I mis-quoted, it is actually 16% remaining instead of 14%.

They do not list the typical capacity. They do however list the actual numbers by region of ER beds, hospital beds, and ICU beds: total, in use, and remaining. Some areas of the state have less than 10 beds remaining. The Atlanta area has about 200.(Just from memory not actually looking at the data.

I don't know how good or bad those numbers are. I was just pointing out that picking some portion of data that supports your beliefs isn't a valid way to look at things. Cases going up in and of itself doesn't say very much. I am not going to develop a doom-and-gloom attitude simply because of confirmed cases. Percentage of hospitalizations since testing began doesn't say very much. There are probably many people who test positive now who would not have even been tested in April. Just because of that, the percentage hospitalized will probably decrease. That is a good thing. However, it doesn't paint a picture of where we are now and I am not going to develop a rosy attitude because of that number.

On July 8 11Alive reported that the figures do NOT include surge capacity data for Georgia. That should relax some folks.

 

[takethepoints]

There seems to be an elephant in the room regarding how we "continue" (from last year) on-line education. It was a stretch to get the 'check in the block' that last year ended with an adequate level of education to most students. To me... the notion you can cover the material adequately for even a few weeks on-line is just crazy. Most school districts around me are now committed to on-line only for 1st 9 weeks of the upcoming school year.

I see this as similar to saying we are no longer providing transportation to school (busing); but everyone must get to school everyday on time. That's not an option. But we're setting up to educate everyone without a teacher physically present to interact with the students. The number of students with the appropriate level of support at home (at least 1 stay-at-home parent) to facilitate the learning is low. Most kids are going to be left behind. I get the pandemic means having children in school may be impossible until things get more under control. However... I see the options as binary. School like it has always been or no school at all. ...OR/UNLESS, you simply do not care about a minimum standard of learning over what will be close to 0.5 years of class (combining end of last year with 9 weeks upcoming).

I agree. Learning online is problematic except for more mature students and then only for required courses or those not requiring extended discussion or personal interaction with teachers. (I.e. it works for a basic computer science course, but not for a second year one.) And I agree that what I was saying will create a real quandary for many parents, most of them won't be able to do much more then herd the kids to the machines and hope for the best.

Oth, the present situation is a stretch for all of us and the risks of additional deaths and serious illness from fully opening the schools (look what happened in Israel) is just as daunting as keeping the kids back for a year or so. There's no reason to make things worse if by avoiding what we know can help tamp the thing down.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

I mis-quoted, it is actually 16% remaining instead of 14%.

They do not list the typical capacity. They do however list the actual numbers by region of ER beds, hospital beds, and ICU beds: total, in use, and remaining. Some areas of the state have less than 10 beds remaining. The Atlanta area has about 200.(Just from memory not actually looking at the data.

I don't know how good or bad those numbers are. I was just pointing out that picking some portion of data that supports your beliefs isn't a valid way to look at things. Cases going up in and of itself doesn't say very much. I am not going to develop a doom-and-gloom attitude simply because of confirmed cases. Percentage of hospitalizations since testing began doesn't say very much. There are probably many people who test positive now who would not have even been tested in April. Just because of that, the percentage hospitalized will probably decrease. That is a good thing. However, it doesn't paint a picture of where we are now and I am not going to develop a rosy attitude because of that number.

I tried to find the article I saw, but I could not find it fast. The article said ICU rates are going up from Covid but it also said hospitals are starting to do more procedures and some of the patients are ending up in the ICU due to the nature of the procedures. What I gathered from the article was to take the ICU capacity with a small grain of salt as it is now a mix of covid and other patients.
I will try again to find the article again after my meeting.

 

[RonJohn]

I agree. Learning online is problematic except for more mature students and then only for required courses or those not requiring extended discussion or personal interaction with teachers. (I.e. it works for a basic computer science course, but not for a second year one.) And I agree that what I was saying will create a real quandary for many parents, most of them won't be able to do much more then herd the kids to the machines and hope for the best.

Oth, the present situation is a stretch for all of us and the risks of additional deaths and serious illness from fully opening the schools (look what happened in Israel) is just as daunting as keeping the kids back for a year or so. There's no reason to make things worse if by avoiding what we know can help tamp the thing down.

Unfortunately there are no good choices. The extreme choices: Open schools completely with no restrictions -- would cause more disease and more death. Hold the kids back a year(or two, or three) until the virus is eradicated will cause some kids to get so far behind they never catch up. There are some measures that are in between, but none of them can eliminate both negatives. No matter what the country/state/school system decides to do, there will be negative consequences.

 

[RonJohn]

I tried to find the article I saw, but I could not find it fast. The article said ICU rates are going up from Covid but it also said hospitals are starting to do more procedures and some of the patients are ending up in the ICU due to the nature of the procedures. What I gathered from the article was to take the ICU capacity with a small grain of salt as it is now a mix of covid and other patients.
I will try again to find the article again after my meeting.

I wasn't trying to make a point about how vast COVID-19 is. If I need an ICU bed and there isn't one available, I won't care why the beds are full. If there is a 45 plane crash at Hartsfield and all of the ICU beds in Atlanta are full of air crash victims, it is the same as if the ICU beds are full of COVID-19 victims.

 

[WreckinGT]

Interesting article comparing Arizona and New Mexico, two states with similar demographics who took different approaches to reopening. Compares cases and economic activity.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/21/arizona-struggles-neighboring-new-mexico-found-more-cautious-path-sustained-growth/

 

[takethepoints]

And just look at the numbers and charts again. Every metric in Georgia is trending down.

COVID-19 Status Report

These data represent confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the Georgia Department of Public Health.

dph.georgia.gov

Well … except that Georgia and Texas have exactly the same number of cases per 100K population (336) and are following pretty much the same rate of Covid increase (see https://www.covidexitstrategy.org).

Why am I not reassured? Because the numbers are about the same as one of the big three (Texas, Florida, Arizona) hotspots.

Btw, thanks to Rambling for posting this URL! Everybody I've sent out to liked it. Especially my nephew who's living in New York.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

I wasn't trying to make a point about how vast COVID-19 is. If I need an ICU bed and there isn't one available, I won't care why the beds are full. If there is a 45 plane crash at Hartsfield and all of the ICU beds in Atlanta are full of air crash victims, it is the same as if the ICU beds are full of COVID-19 victims.

I was not trying to counter you not making a point.
I was just generally adding some more information that not all of the ICU increase is due to Covid. There is good reason to be concerned in general, but I had spoke to some people who pointed out the ICU capacity is a sign of how bad Covid is right now and I was just saying that ICU capacity numbers may not be as clear of an indication of the ramping Covid due to the other patients now in ICU.

 

[RamblinRed]

The charts on the GA website are very misleading. They backdate the information so it always appears in the chart that the data is trending down the last 2 weeks. they have been doing that for a long time. This is the state that had a chart that showed a downward trend because they didn't have the dates in chronological order.
Using the charts on GA's site is not very helpful. look for sites that do a good job of showing charts over time. Deaths, hospitalizations and cases are all increasing.
Today was the 2nd worst day of daily deaths reported during the entire pandemic in GA.

Also, there are no COVID1-18. There are 4 common coronaviruses that cause the common cold. COVID19 is named because it is a coronavirus (named SAR-CoV-2) and causes the disease first seen in 2019 - hence COVID2019.

Naming the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the virus that causes it

An explanation of the official names for the corona virus disease (COVID-2019) and the virus that causes it.

www.who.int

I can't speak for alot of hospitals, but I have friends/relatives in 3 hospitals in metro Atlanta and all of them have COVID caseloads similar to the late April/early May timeframe. Not overflowing, but full of people both COVID and non COVID. The strain this puts on the people who work in the hospitals is pretty severe. Having to be in PPE all day. Seeing people die every day.
I saw one article where a nurse said in their ICU they had 4 people die all last year, they've had 40 in the last 2 weeks. They take turns staying with a patient as they die because they feel everyone should have someone around when that happens.
As of today we have 821 confirmed deaths of healthcare workers due to COVID19 in the US. That's not normal as most people in hospitals aren't going to potentially infect hospital workers with a deadly disease.

Covid-19 healthcare worker death toll: 940 deaths under investigation

Lost on the frontline is a project by the Guardian and Kaiser Health News to document the lives of every US medical worker who dies helping patients during the pandemic

www.theguardian.com

CDC reports 105,000 healthcare workers have been sickened

 

[RamblinRed]

So we have cautiously good news on vaccines. Multiple ones are showing some promise, but we are some ways from having anything useful. Multiple vaccines are moving on to phase 3 trials (these normally take a year and are where most vaccines end up failing). Researchers have to find the right dose that provides immunity, for the longest period of time, with the least side effects. That tends to be something that takes time.

I'll add these cautionary notes from a vaccine expert.
“And that’s the idea behind Operation Warp Speed. All of these vaccines will start entering phase 3 clinical trials at various times over the next year and then it’ll take a year to accumulate all the data showing the vaccines actually work, as well as that they’re safe ... But keep in mind the first vaccines may not be our best vaccines, added Hotez.

“It’s looking like many of them are just partially protective, potentially preventing people from getting very sick, but not interrupting transmission. So, even then we’re still going to have to maintain ongoing public health control.”

The head of the UK Vaccine Taskforce said today that it will likely be sometime in 2021 before a vaccine is readily available.

FWIW, this study suggests if people do three things consistently - wash hands, wear a mask, and socially distance - then society can beat back the virus.

Impact of self-imposed prevention measures and short-term government-imposed social distancing on mitigating and delaying a COVID-19 epidemic: A modelling study

Alexandra Teslya and colleagues model the impact of self-imposed versus government-led interventions on controlling the COVID-19 epidemic.

journals.plos.org

 

[RonJohn]

The charts on the GA website are very misleading. They backdate the information so it always appears in the chart that the data is trending down the last 2 weeks. they have been doing that for a long time. This is the state that had a chart that showed a downward trend because they didn't have the dates in chronological order.
Using the charts on GA's site is not very helpful. look for sites that do a good job of showing charts over time. Deaths, hospitalizations and cases are all increasing.

It depends on whether you understand what you are looking at or not. The AJC shows the data in both ways for confirmed cases and for deaths. If you look at the deaths by date of report chart, it fluctuates wildly and it basically useless in finding trends even looking prior to June. The chart that shows deaths by actual date of death is a much smoother chart and it actually shows a trend. The deaths by date of report is wonky and appears to be almost flat from early April until now.

The chart that shows confirmed cases by date of report doesn't show "better" data than by day of onset of symptoms. You still need at least a week's worth of data to begin to decide if there is a trend or not. You can get that same thing from the chart by day of symptom onset, you just have to look at it differently.

Years from now, the data and charts by date of report will be useless. Currently, they might give you a little quicker insight into what is happening, but you still have to look back a week ago. It doesn't tell you anything about what is happening today.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Dr. Fauci said today that due to a substantial decrease in people getting regular cancer screenings, tens and tens of thousands of additional people will die of various cancers over the next several years. He’s not wrong, but man he never finds anything good to talk about.