Coronavirus Thread

[RonJohn]

Those are total percentages for the virus. Why would you only look at a fraction of the number? You have to view the entire data range to see the effects. You just can't pick and choose what stats to follow.

And don't forget:
we don't have a number for the total number of tests administered
the covid-19 positive tests include; covids 1-18 and the common cold. So how accurate are the tests?

It is only part of the picture. Are percentages of ICU admissions more important than ICU capacity remaining? If the number of infected goes up and the percentage or people in ICUs goes down that is good. However, if ICUs run out of capacity, then it doesn't matter what percentage of people with the virus didn't enter the ICU, only that someone can't enter an ICU because there is no space left. The Georgia Emergency Management and Homeland Security Agency has a status report that includes availability of ER beds, ICU beds, and hospital beds. ER and normal beds look OK at the moment. ICU beds only have 14% capacity remaining. If the number of cases keeps going up, even if the percentage of hospitalizations continues to decline, Georgia could run out of ICU beds.

https://gema.georgia.gov/document/document/sitrep-720/download

I am not a doom-and-gloom, everyone is going to die type of poster. However, to believe that Georgia is in excellent shape at the moment is not accurate either.

 

[684Bee]

MSN

www.msn.com

Have heard from a couple people of this happening.

 

[WreckinGT]

Those are total percentages for the virus. Why would you only look at a fraction of the number? You have to view the entire data range to see the effects. You just can't pick and choose what stats to follow.

And don't forget:
we don't have a number for the total number of tests administered
the covid-19 positive tests include; covids 1-18 and the common cold. So how accurate are the tests?

These numbers seem relevant if you want to prove that we are improving our ability to care for the virus or if you think a certain overall threshold is acceptable. They aren't relevant if you are currently in the middle of a large surge which has resulted in massively increased cases, and increased hospitalizations. So far we haven't seen the same increase in deaths, but judging by the lag times in Florida, Texas, and Arizona, those will likely be coming soon.

 

[FredJacket]

It is only part of the picture. Are percentages of ICU admissions more important than ICU capacity remaining? If the number of infected goes up and the percentage or people in ICUs goes down that is good. However, if ICUs run out of capacity, then it doesn't matter what percentage of people with the virus didn't enter the ICU, only that someone can't enter an ICU because there is no space left. The Georgia Emergency Management and Homeland Security Agency has a status report that includes availability of ER beds, ICU beds, and hospital beds. ER and normal beds look OK at the moment. ICU beds only have 14% capacity remaining. If the number of cases keeps going up, even if the percentage of hospitalizations continues to decline, Georgia could run out of ICU beds.

https://gema.georgia.gov/document/document/sitrep-720/download

I am not a doom-and-gloom, everyone is going to die type of poster. However, to believe that Georgia is in excellent shape at the moment is not accurate either.

As for "only 14% capacity remaining" ... that does sound like too small of a excess; but honestly, I don't know. Does GA tell you/us what a typical "target" is for excess capacity? If the target is 20% then 14 is no longer that scary.. if the target is 70%, then you have a problem.

Healthcare is a business (or better said costs money and you can't have infinite resources) and I assume there is an "optimal" excess capacity that means they are making the most of a limited (costly) resource without being in jeopardy of being overwhelmed. Like you said "part of the picture" is ICU beds available... I have never seen it contextualized compared to an optimal target.

 

[WreckinGT]

Y’all’s numbers don’t jive. Are you looking at the same thing?

Positive cases being up isn’t the scary part to me. We are testing like crazy. I’ve been to several testing places recently and they are packed.

It also doesn’t scare me as much any more, cause we’ve gotten a lot better with treatment.

I know several people who have tested positive recently, and, at worst, their symptoms were like a bad cold or a regular flu.

I wouldn't worry about the increase in positive test cases if the positive test rates were staying the same. If we were at 5% positive test rates and now we are at 15% then that is a bit of a concern.

 

[Lotta Booze]

the covid-19 positive tests include; covids 1-18 and the common cold. So how accurate are the tests?

You got a source for this big guy? Where are you getting these covids 1-18? Are you....making them up?

 

[RonJohn]

As for "only 14% capacity remaining" ... that does sound like too small of a excess; but honestly, I don't know. Does GA tell you/us what a typical "target" is for excess capacity? If the target is 20% then 14 is no longer that scary.. if the target is 70%, then you have a problem.

Healthcare is a business (or better said costs money and you can't have infinite resources) and I assume there is an "optimal" excess capacity that means they are making the most of a limited (costly) resource without being in jeopardy of being overwhelmed. Like you said "part of the picture" is ICU beds available... I have never seen it contextualized compared to an optimal target.

I mis-quoted, it is actually 16% remaining instead of 14%.

They do not list the typical capacity. They do however list the actual numbers by region of ER beds, hospital beds, and ICU beds: total, in use, and remaining. Some areas of the state have less than 10 beds remaining. The Atlanta area has about 200.(Just from memory not actually looking at the data.

I don't know how good or bad those numbers are. I was just pointing out that picking some portion of data that supports your beliefs isn't a valid way to look at things. Cases going up in and of itself doesn't say very much. I am not going to develop a doom-and-gloom attitude simply because of confirmed cases. Percentage of hospitalizations since testing began doesn't say very much. There are probably many people who test positive now who would not have even been tested in April. Just because of that, the percentage hospitalized will probably decrease. That is a good thing. However, it doesn't paint a picture of where we are now and I am not going to develop a rosy attitude because of that number.

 

[TooTall]

It is only part of the picture. Are percentages of ICU admissions more important than ICU capacity remaining? If the number of infected goes up and the percentage or people in ICUs goes down that is good. However, if ICUs run out of capacity, then it doesn't matter what percentage of people with the virus didn't enter the ICU, only that someone can't enter an ICU because there is no space left. The Georgia Emergency Management and Homeland Security Agency has a status report that includes availability of ER beds, ICU beds, and hospital beds. ER and normal beds look OK at the moment. ICU beds only have 14% capacity remaining. If the number of cases keeps going up, even if the percentage of hospitalizations continues to decline, Georgia could run out of ICU beds.

https://gema.georgia.gov/document/document/sitrep-720/download

I am not a doom-and-gloom, everyone is going to die type of poster. However, to believe that Georgia is in excellent shape at the moment is not accurate either.

Most important factors for ICU is two equal items:
A) Some hospitals have the entire ICU as a covid unit and they have transferred other ICU patients to other facilities, while accepting covid patients from out side the area.
B) Some hospitals do the opposite, they may have a 10 bed ICU, but 9 of those beds have patients while only 2 of those are covid cases, yet their ICU capacity is reported at 90%.

These numbers seem relevant if you want to prove that we are improving our ability to care for the virus or if you think a certain overall threshold is acceptable. They aren't relevant if you are currently in the middle of a large surge which has resulted in massively increased cases, and increased hospitalizations. So far we haven't seen the same increase in deaths, but judging by the lag times in Florida, Texas, and Arizona, those will likely be coming soon.

This has been being said for 3 weeks now, yet the numbers of deaths, hospitalizations and ICU admissions is STILL going down compared to the number of positive cases. Like I said, there are no numbers of test administered, so it could be possible that the infection percentage is going down as well. And looking at the chart from the Ga Dept of Health, the positive cases appear to have peaked.

I just don't see the reason for doom and gloom outlooks, yet I am talking to a bunch of GT fans, so that might play into it.

 

[TooTall]

You got a source for this big guy? Where are you getting these covids 1-18? Are you....making them up?

I did because of the following CDC explanation.

"There are many types of human coronaviruses including some that commonly cause mild upper-respiratory tract illnesses. COVID-19 is a new disease, caused by a novel (or new) coronavirus that has not previously been seen in humans. "

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.

www.cdc.gov

.

And the test for COVID19 will return a positive result if the person has other covid including the common cold.

 

[684Bee]

I wouldn't worry about the increase in positive test cases if the positive test rates were staying the same. If we were at 5% positive test rates and now we are at 15% then that is a bit of a concern.

The underlying assumption in your concern is that cases naturally lead to an increase in hospitalization and ICU that is overwhelming.

I’m certainly not seeing that with all the people I know who’ve tested positive.

 

[RonJohn]

Most important factors for ICU is two equal items:
A) Some hospitals have the entire ICU as a covid unit and they have transferred other ICU patients to other facilities, while accepting covid patients from out side the area.
B) Some hospitals do the opposite, they may have a 10 bed ICU, but 9 of those beds have patients while only 2 of those are covid cases, yet their ICU capacity is reported at 90%.

The report that I referenced does not indicate what an ICU bed is used for. It only reports the total, in use, and remaining numbers of beds. I will not care if I need an ICU bed because of COVID-19 or because of a car wreck. If I need a bed and it isn't available I will be in trouble no matter the reason I need the bed.

I don't know what the danger of running out of beds is. I am simply pointing out that the percentage hospitalized won't be an important statistic if we do run out of beds. ICU beds will not remain available or run out because a percentage increases or decreases. It will be affected by the actual number of beds in use.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

You got a source for this big guy? Where are you getting these covids 1-18? Are you....making them up?

There is no such thing as COVIDs 1-18. It is called COVID-19 because it originated in 2019.

 

[RonJohn]

I did because of the following CDC explanation.

"There are many types of human coronaviruses including some that commonly cause mild upper-respiratory tract illnesses. COVID-19 is a new disease, caused by a novel (or new) coronavirus that has not previously been seen in humans. "

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.

www.cdc.gov

.

And the test for COVID19 will return a positive result if the person has other covid including the common cold.

So, since cars have been in use for over one-hundred years, is it impossible to distinguish between a 1908 Model-T and a 2021 Ford Bronco?

They can even find out which strain of COVID-19 a person has.(Not with the typical test.)

 

[GoldZ]

It's probably not a good sign that the primary hospital in Gainesville is bringing in cargo containers to serve as rooms/beds.

Another tidbit, is a 24 year old former Brookwood football star just died from Covid. Idk about risk factors, but he was an OL/DL.

 

[Lotta Booze]

I did because of the following CDC explanation.

"There are many types of human coronaviruses including some that commonly cause mild upper-respiratory tract illnesses. COVID-19 is a new disease, caused by a novel (or new) coronavirus that has not previously been seen in humans. "

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.

www.cdc.gov

.

And the test for COVID19 will return a positive result if the person has other covid including the common cold.

I think you're making a bit of a leap with that quote from the CDC. And I haven't seen any evidence that the common cold results in a positive COVID 19 test outside of facebook memes

 

[Lotta Booze]

There is no such thing as COVIDs 1-18. It is called COVID-19 because it originated in 2019.

Exactly

 

[TooTall]

I think you're making a bit of a leap with that quote from the CDC. And I haven't seen any evidence that the common cold results in a positive COVID 19 test outside of facebook memes

Common Human Coronaviruses | CDC

Provides overview of the Common Human Coronavirus, including symptoms, transmission, prevention of viral respiratory infections, treatment, and testing.

www.cdc.gov

Man that took all of 3 seconds on google to find. And the symptoms listed are for the common cold, not covid, but the point is that they are only testing for covid, not covid-19, so if you have any of the other covids out there, including the common cold, you will come back as a positive.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Common Human Coronaviruses | CDC

Provides overview of the Common Human Coronavirus, including symptoms, transmission, prevention of viral respiratory infections, treatment, and testing.

www.cdc.gov

Man that took all of 3 seconds on google to find. And the symptoms listed are for the common cold, not covid, but the point is that they are only testing for covid, not covid-19, so if you have any of the other covids out there, including the common cold, you will come back as a positive.

The link that you referenced states the opposite of your assertion by the way.

 

[RonJohn]

Common Human Coronaviruses | CDC

Provides overview of the Common Human Coronavirus, including symptoms, transmission, prevention of viral respiratory infections, treatment, and testing.

www.cdc.gov

Man that took all of 3 seconds on google to find. And the symptoms listed are for the common cold, not covid, but the point is that they are only testing for covid, not covid-19, so if you have any of the other covids out there, including the common cold, you will come back as a positive.

If that were the case, then why did they have to develop a test for COVID-19? Why not use a test for MERS or SARS if they all return the same result?

 

[RonJohn]

Common Human Coronaviruses | CDC

Provides overview of the Common Human Coronavirus, including symptoms, transmission, prevention of viral respiratory infections, treatment, and testing.

www.cdc.gov

Man that took all of 3 seconds on google to find. And the symptoms listed are for the common cold, not covid, but the point is that they are only testing for covid, not covid-19, so if you have any of the other covids out there, including the common cold, you will come back as a positive.

As @bwelbo said, the page you linked to says specifically that "If you are found to be infected with a common coronavirus" .... "that does not mean you are infected with the 2019 coronavirus." and "There are different tests to determine if you are infected with 2019 novel coronavirus."

I did the bolding to highlight.