Coronavirus Thread

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Northeast Stinger

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We’ve tested 50 million people. We have contact tracing. We have the same recommendations of good hygiene, social distancing, and wearing masks. What else can you do if a large population thumbs their nose at it? WhT do you expect mayors or governors or the Congress or whoever to do?
I’m just not seeing the same thing as you.

The way I found out about an outbreak up the road from me was that people infected there caused an outbreak four hours away where 20+ students who came down with covid happened to be students in a school where my daughter is the principal. Privacy concerns were not the main inhibitor of tracing these contacts. It was difficulty getting timely access to testing and results that took over a week to get back.

We have talked about the success other countries have had and in almost every case a major factor has been widespread testing, contact tracing and isolation. I’m hearing that our slow response to do this may mean we have to go back to shut downs just to slow the virus enough that we can track it.

What can “authorities” do? Think about what was done during previous national crises. Whether WW II, 1918 flu outbreak, the Cold War missile crisis or after 9/11. We could argue about what was effective or not, what was propaganda or not, or the compliance level, but all of that would completely miss the point.

I knew as a very young child how to stock a fallout shelter or how far away I would need to be from an air detonated thermonuclear device. Right after 9/11 I knew what color code we were in for the terrorism alert.

Again, I hope no one will sidetrack on these examples and whether the information was valuable or silly. My point is that a sense of national unity was communicated. If we had had coordinated unified message saturation from the beginning, like we have had with other crises, we would not have lost precious time arguing over whether it was better to let grandma die for the economy, whether masks should be worn, whether we should be dispensing untested drug regimens, if we should shoot for herd immunity, or whether we should just let all young people get exposed as quickly as possible.

From where I sit we have not had a coordinated unified message. That means we are still behind in the quest to get people to trust the science. And we have yet to get out of our political bubbles and all get on the same page.

Historians and anthropologists who look at the collapse of complex civilizations seem to agree that it is not the final crisis that does in a society but a series of cascading events (Toynbee). The final stage is signaled by one of three things, self induced environmental disaster, inability to hold off foreign intervention in domestic politics, or a disease epidemic that sweeps the country (Glube). But what makes these fatal, (Tainter), is an inability to work together to solve problems. This inability, with the resulting blame placing and scapegoating, lowers the bar on expectations for success to the point that the population gives up on following any kind of protocol or unified effort. I don’t know if we can our fellow citizens all on the same page at this point. I try to be hopeful but I see no evidence for it yet.
 

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Utter nonsense.

Imperfect, but "Orwellian police state"?

https://www.brookings.edu/research/liberal-democracy-in-south-korea/

We’ve covered in great detail the stuff South Korea does to control the virus. I’m not going to type it all again, but you can google it. My comment is not nonsense - electronically tracking your credit card transactions, facial recognition tracking via video surveillance, publishing your personal information when you test positive, police-enforced isolation - that’s just a start. I mean, we’re not talking about their political structure here, we’re talking about their methods of controlling the virus LOLOLOL.
 
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bobongo

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We’ve covered in great detail the stuff South Korea does to control the virus. I’m not going to type it all again, but you can google it. My comment is not nonsense - electronically tracking your credit card transactions, facial recognition tracking via video surveillance, publishing your personal information when you test positive, police-enforced isolation - that’s just a start. I mean, we’re not talking about their political structure here, we’re talking about their methods of controlling the virus LOLOLOL.

Yeah, Orwellian police states do not have large, raucous protests as are frequent in South Korea. LOLOLOL. You have a point but you've wildly overstated it.
 

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I’m just not seeing the same thing as you.

The way I found out about an outbreak up the road from me was that people infected there caused an outbreak four hours away where 20+ students who came down with covid happened to be students in a school where my daughter is the principal. Privacy concerns were not the main inhibitor of tracing these contacts. It was difficulty getting timely access to testing and results that took over a week to get back.

We have talked about the success other countries have had and in almost every case a major factor has been widespread testing, contact tracing and isolation. I’m hearing that our slow response to do this may mean we have to go back to shut downs just to slow the virus enough that we can track it.

What can “authorities” do? Think about what was done during previous national crises. Whether WW II, 1918 flu outbreak, the Cold War missile crisis or after 9/11. We could argue about what was effective or not, what was propaganda or not, or the compliance level, but all of that would completely miss the point.

I knew as a very young child how to stock a fallout shelter or how far away I would need to be from an air detonated thermonuclear device. Right after 9/11 I knew what color code we were in for the terrorism alert.

Again, I hope no one will sidetrack on these examples and whether the information was valuable or silly. My point is that a sense of national unity was communicated. If we had had coordinated unified message saturation from the beginning, like we have had with other crises, we would not have lost precious time arguing over whether it was better to let grandma die for the economy, whether masks should be worn, whether we should be dispensing untested drug regimens, if we should shoot for herd immunity, or whether we should just let all young people get exposed as quickly as possible.

From where I sit we have not had a coordinated unified message. That means we are still behind in the quest to get people to trust the science. And we have yet to get out of our political bubbles and all get on the same page.

Historians and anthropologists who look at the collapse of complex civilizations seem to agree that it is not the final crisis that does in a society but a series of cascading events (Toynbee). The final stage is signaled by one of three things, self induced environmental disaster, inability to hold off foreign intervention in domestic politics, or a disease epidemic that sweeps the country (Glube). But what makes these fatal, (Tainter), is an inability to work together to solve problems. This inability, with the resulting blame placing and scapegoating, lowers the bar on expectations for success to the point that the population gives up on following any kind of protocol or unified effort. I don’t know if we can our fellow citizens all on the same page at this point. I try to be hopeful but I see no evidence for it yet.

We’ve told people since February to isolate if they feel sick at all, whether they test positive or not to be safe. And people don’t. We’ve told people to isolate if they’re not sick but were exposed to someone who tested positive. We tell people to wear masks and so on. But they don’t. I share your frustration.
 
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wrmathis

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Yeah, Orwellian police states do not have large, raucous protests as are frequent in South Korea. LOLOLOL. You have a point but you've wildly overstated it.

Those protest are never against the SK Government though. They are either against the US forces there, China, or for US forces. That place you don't even think about doing anything illegal cuz you will get caught. There is CCTV every where on every corner and wall. If you commit a crime and get away with it in SK, you are Houdini or Copperfield or a ghost. We had a Soldier that spent a couple days in jail and had to pay a huge fine all because he stole a menu from a restaurant while he was drunk.
 

bobongo

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Revolution by Candlelight: How South Koreans Toppled a Government

https://www.dissentmagazine.org/art...elight-how-south-koreans-toppled-a-government

South Korea’s Candlelight Revolution was the culmination of a sustained protest movement that brought out over 16 million people—almost a third of the country’s population.


th
 

bobongo

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We had a Soldier that spent a couple days in jail and had to pay a huge fine all because he stole a menu from a restaurant while he was drunk.

And that makes it an "Orwellian police state"? Petty theft can land you in jail here, too, especially if you're drunk and disorderly. Gobs of CCTV here, too.
I've been in the military overseas, too. I know what we're dealing with.
 

bke1984

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Car accidents and school shootings and other communicable disease deaths are all down too. So what is it? I don’t really want to know the answer!
Maybe the fact that school was closed, everyone was at home, and the population was told to stay away from each other has something to do with this?

Data helps us understand things, but you also have to know what’s going on around it. The answer to these numbers changing is staring you right in the face.
 

Deleted member 2897

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Maybe the fact that school was closed, everyone was at home, and the population was told to stay away from each other has something to do with this?

Data helps us understand things, but you also have to know what’s going on around it. The answer to these numbers changing is staring you right in the face.

I was referring to the fact we have over 100,000 excess deaths even after you account for COVID-19 deaths.
 

Deleted member 2897

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And that makes it an "Orwellian police state"? Petty theft can land you in jail here, too, especially if you're drunk and disorderly. Gobs of CCTV here, too.
I've been in the military overseas, too. I know what we're dealing with.

No, all the other Orwellian police state actions we listed above do. Don’t be intentionally obtuse.

Now imagine being arrested and put in jail for walking out of a restaurant with one of their menus.
 

LibertyTurns

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FredJacket

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Where were all these ‘freedom’ lovers when people had to start registering their automobiles, wear helmets and seatbelts, put kids and car seats and quit using lead paint and DDT?
They were vocal. They complained about government overreach. Many... paid consequences by defying the new laws. Most began adhering to new "laws". Frankly... this mask deal is quite similar in that regard.

However, I'd need a legal expert to weigh in on exactly where/when failing to wear a mask is "against the law"... currently. As in... there are legal consequences.
 

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Where were all these ‘freedom’ lovers when people had to start registering their automobiles, wear helmets and seatbelts, put kids and car seats and quit using lead paint and DDT?

A lot of people don’t wear helmets and seat belts and so on.
 

bobongo

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No, all the other Orwellian police state actions we listed above do. Don’t be intentionally obtuse.

Now imagine being arrested and put in jail for walking out of a restaurant with one of their menus.

Big deal. I'm sure folks have been arrested here for less than that. I'll bet there's more to the story, like drunk and disorderly, maybe. I've been in the military and I know how obnoxious these kids can get.

As for their efforts to stem coronavirus, their tactics are not possible here, nor should they be, but under the circumstances a little context is in order.
It wasn't to stifle democracy, it was to stop a pandemic.
 

MWBATL

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Most days I don’t think we are going to make it as a country. From what I’ve read from polls a majority of people share the same fear.

A primary symptom of our malaise is that it has become impossible to have a conversation on any topic of importance without it becoming partisan and ideological. We are beyond paralysis.

I think opening schools is not feasible at this time. The data is trending the wrong direction, the exact opposite of the initial White House guidelines for reopening.

Anecdotally, if you want to see what we could be in for, look at summer camps for children. A camp near us has to shut down after a week because close to 90 campers and staff came down with covid. Each of those campers went back to their respective communities hundreds of miles a way and immediately caused scores of hot spots and outbreaks in other communities.

Now is not the time to spread the infection rate. I keep hoping that testing will increase, contact tracing and isolation will be implemented, but we seem to lack the will. We should be doing this, taking care of shortages in PPE and preparing to let everyone vote by mail who wants to. Public service ads on TV, radio, YouTube, and print media should be ubiquitous. I rarely see any promotion of masks.

We know from other countries what works. My prayer is that we break the political death spiral we are in before it is too late.
 

RamblinRed

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COVID Tracking Project does a nice job with a weekly blog update.
https://covidtracking.com/blog/reco...italizations-rising-deaths-this-week-in-covid

For any that are interested they have a deep dive into FL data. The good, the bad, and what's missing.
https://covidtracking.com/blog/florida-covid-19-data
FL starting providing COVID hospitalizations this weekend so that is really helpful. They were around 7,500 earlier today. Total hospitalizations today nationwide is around 52K, the estimate for late March/early April at the peak is 70K.

Admiral Giroir, the coronavirus testing coordinator, said today that we need mask usage of about 90% to get this under control and also mentioned needing 10's of millions of additional tests a month.
"It's really essential to wear masks and for this to work we have to have like 90% of people wearing a mask in public in the hotspot areas, if we don't have that we will not get control of the virus,"

I think as bwelbo has mentioned before that at least the first half of July was already baked. Everything we are seeing now is due more to behavior awhile ago.
The CDC mobility reports that they are getting from cell usage suggests that more people were moving around over July 4th weekend than Memorial Day weekend. That's certainly concerning for what things might look like at the end of July/early August.

I really feel for all the school administrators who have to try to figure that out this year. I think there are some areas where it shouldn't be too difficult to have all the students in class. There are other areas where they will likely have to be more creative and maybe have the elementary students in school but have the older students in a more modified format of a couple of days a at school or remote. And then there are some areas that right now you probably can't even think of having school buildings open at any level and either have to delay opening or go virtual.

There are so many areas now with hotspots, not just in the SE and SW but some areas in the midwest and the mountain states that it is going to take a big effort again to get this under control.

That FL number today is sort of crazy. That is larger than every country in the world execept Brazil and India (and of course the US).


Don't know if anyone saw this but after partying last weekend that went viral the Dean of Students at Tulane sent an email to all students about their expectations for them in terms of holding parties and that if they didn't stick to the expectations they could be expelled.
https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_6e5dc0e8-c079-11ea-8292-7b3db291f48e.html
 

MWBATL

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Most days I don’t think we are going to make it as a country. From what I’ve read from polls a majority of people share the same fear.

A primary symptom of our malaise is that it has become impossible to have a conversation on any topic of importance without it becoming partisan and ideological. We are beyond paralysis.

I think opening schools is not feasible at this time. The data is trending the wrong direction, the exact opposite of the initial White House guidelines for reopening.

Anecdotally, if you want to see what we could be in for, look at summer camps for children. A camp near us has to shut down after a week because close to 90 campers and staff came down with covid. Each of those campers went back to their respective communities hundreds of miles a way and immediately caused scores of hot spots and outbreaks in other communities.

Now is not the time to spread the infection rate. I keep hoping that testing will increase, contact tracing and isolation will be implemented, but we seem to lack the will. We should be doing this, taking care of shortages in PPE and preparing to let everyone vote by mail who wants to. Public service ads on TV, radio, YouTube, and print media should be ubiquitous. I rarely see any promotion of masks.

We know from other countries what works. My prayer is that we break the political death spiral we are in before it is too late.
We know other countries have reopened their schools, and done so successfully.
Not sure your third paragraph and your last one make sense....you don’t think we should reopen schools but believe we should do what has worked in other countries....which is reopEn schools. Huh?
 
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