Deleted member 2897
Guest
South Mecklenburg.
- Status
South Mecklenburg.
Deleted member 2897
Guest
Outbreaks are now being recorded at colleges all over the country, being traced back to large parties. I mean, what did these people think would happen?
https://news4sanantonio.com/news/lo...in-their-30s-dies-after-attending-covid-party
How do you fix stupid?
https://news4sanantonio.com/news/lo...in-their-30s-dies-after-attending-covid-party
How do you fix stupid?
LibertyTurns
Banned
- Messages
- 6,216
We had high school graduations yesterday and they at least tried to break into smaller groups and spread families out by limiting the guests. There were parties all over the place last night. No masks anywhere. When I say none, we saw about 75 different people all coming in & out of neighborhood parties and not a single kid or adult had a mask on.
- Messages
- 11,481
I know not everyone had the same experience I did this spring, but the teachers in my kids’ schools worked their tails off. Before classes went virtual, we’d seen years of teachers paying for supplies out of their own pockets and working long hours consistently (it’s no fun grading papers and tests).
The biggest obstacle they had is that not every family was in the same condition to cope—some families had good internet, some didn’t; some had two parents at home, some had two parents working outside of the house. Having to adapt to some of their students not having a stable learning situation was a major challenge for a lot of the schools.
We saw some other students going to a different school, and they were having play time from the time they got up, but it wasn’t the case with our schools.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
The biggest obstacle they had is that not every family was in the same condition to cope—some families had good internet, some didn’t; some had two parents at home, some had two parents working outside of the house. Having to adapt to some of their students not having a stable learning situation was a major challenge for a lot of the schools.
We saw some other students going to a different school, and they were having play time from the time they got up, but it wasn’t the case with our schools.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
- Messages
- 10,057
- Location
- Williamsburg Virginia
At our HS, the teachers were online Face Timing with students 4 hours a day this Spring. Then class prep and grading and one on one time. Most teachers I have known actually believe in what they are doing and care.
YJMD
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 1,620
Replying in the proper thread.
Regardless of your feelings about the accuracy of data, we need to look at trends, and the trends in all sources are moving in the same direction. Inflated numbers even by double right now aren't really meaningful. If new infections are doubling every 50 days, then wait 2 months and we'll talk. Herd immunity is estimated to occur at over 60%, and we are very very far from that number.
Pneumonia isn't one disease. There are very many organisms which cause pneumonia. The epidemiology of most cases you are referencing is vastly different. None are anywhere close to being as readily communicable to people (especially people without very significant risk factors) as SARS-CoV-2. The number of people susceptible is vastly different for nearly every organism of concern. Most hospitalizations and deaths are bacterial pneumonias in people with significant underlying health conditions and advanced age. While this is true for COVID-19, the differences in this even are stark. Younger and healthier people are at much greater danger (in general).
Looking at impact on the healthcare system, pneumonias occur at reasonably predictable rates. Bad flu seasons can certainly change things, but the situation overall is still much different. Total hospitalizations are already over 100k more than flu, but importantly people are in the hospital for far longer with COVID and utilize many more resources. When the system reaches capacity, mortality will greatly increase. And cumulative here is a very poor way to look at this problem. If demand for hospitalization (infections) is growing faster than people can be discharged from the hospital, we lose. It doesn't matter if you don't trust the data at current state. We can start from zero hospitalizations if you want. Run any simulation you want with whatever capacity you want. Set it up where new hospitalizations outpaces discharges by the tiniest of fractions. Run it long enough and you hit capacity. The only way that changes is by reducing rate of infection or running out of people to infect.
MWBATL
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 6,509
Unfortunately, this characteristic applies to most other presidents and politicians in general. One can easily argue that we get politicians who reflect our society. I think many who voted for Trump did so precisely because they were disgusted with the political class, and he seemed like a non-politician.
MWBATL
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 6,509
Send them to college so they will get educated......oh, wait......
- Messages
- 11,481
I had been thinking about transmission in the dorms, but fraternities are even denser. Some of it is parties, but some of it is just membership:
https://www.clarionledger.com/story...reak-linked-to-fraternity-parties/3217497001/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/19/us/mississippi-coronavirus-fraternity-parties/index.html
https://www.washington.edu/news/202...ponding-to-coronavirus-cases-in-greek-system/
From the ER doctors who have been sharing info, the young people they HAVE seen (children, teenagers, college students) have been in terrible shape and they’ve been losing a lot of them.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Deleted member 2897
Guest
Yea it’s not dorms or fraternities or hotels or churches or whatever. It’s large gatherings in those places without masks and social distancing.
GT_EE78
Banned
- Messages
- 3,605
What an absurd thing to say that is obviously FALSE! It could lead one to think that you may have an agenda.
Northeast Stinger
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 10,719
Most days I don’t think we are going to make it as a country. From what I’ve read from polls a majority of people share the same fear.
A primary symptom of our malaise is that it has become impossible to have a conversation on any topic of importance without it becoming partisan and ideological. We are beyond paralysis.
I think opening schools is not feasible at this time. The data is trending the wrong direction, the exact opposite of the initial White House guidelines for reopening.
Anecdotally, if you want to see what we could be in for, look at summer camps for children. A camp near us has to shut down after a week because close to 90 campers and staff came down with covid. Each of those campers went back to their respective communities hundreds of miles a way and immediately caused scores of hot spots and outbreaks in other communities.
Now is not the time to spread the infection rate. I keep hoping that testing will increase, contact tracing and isolation will be implemented, but we seem to lack the will. We should be doing this, taking care of shortages in PPE and preparing to let everyone vote by mail who wants to. Public service ads on TV, radio, YouTube, and print media should be ubiquitous. I rarely see any promotion of masks.
We know from other countries what works. My prayer is that we break the political death spiral we are in before it is too late.
A primary symptom of our malaise is that it has become impossible to have a conversation on any topic of importance without it becoming partisan and ideological. We are beyond paralysis.
I think opening schools is not feasible at this time. The data is trending the wrong direction, the exact opposite of the initial White House guidelines for reopening.
Anecdotally, if you want to see what we could be in for, look at summer camps for children. A camp near us has to shut down after a week because close to 90 campers and staff came down with covid. Each of those campers went back to their respective communities hundreds of miles a way and immediately caused scores of hot spots and outbreaks in other communities.
Now is not the time to spread the infection rate. I keep hoping that testing will increase, contact tracing and isolation will be implemented, but we seem to lack the will. We should be doing this, taking care of shortages in PPE and preparing to let everyone vote by mail who wants to. Public service ads on TV, radio, YouTube, and print media should be ubiquitous. I rarely see any promotion of masks.
We know from other countries what works. My prayer is that we break the political death spiral we are in before it is too late.
LibertyTurns
Banned
- Messages
- 6,216
15,299 for Florida on Saturday. I have to credit http://covidactnow.org/ There were about 11,300 cases a week ago and an infection rate of about 1.3-1.4.
Deleted member 2897
Guest
We’ve tested 50 million people. We have contact tracing. We have the same recommendations of good hygiene, social distancing, and wearing masks. What else can you do if a large population thumbs their nose at it? WhT do you expect mayors or governors or the Congress or whoever to do?
Deleted member 2897
Guest
Same here - we broke the previous record by 25%. 22%+ positive test rate. People continue to hold parties and large gatherings and everything else. They just don’t care.
forensicbuzz
21st Century Throwback Dad
- Messages
- 8,816
- Location
- North Shore, Chicago
My kids in public schools. Zoom meetings every day. Assignments every day. School day started with a Zoom meeting at 8:30 for the younger ones and 8:00 for my junior. Live remote instruction every day. They moved to a block schedule so the subjects were organized into two days with the 3rd day being office hours and recitation. They rotated on a 3-day schedule. Assignments took most of the day and there was homework for after school.
Our school system had remote learning in place prior to any issues (generally due to weather conditions in the winter).
LibertyTurns
Banned
- Messages
- 6,216
Miami Dade, Broward and Palm Beach alone had over 6500 cases. Crazy down there.
There are some oddities in the data today, ie Lee County (Ft Myers) had 6x the number they’ve had recently, Orange (Orlando) was 2.5x, Sarasota almost 5x, Escambia (Pensacola) 3x, etc.
Edit: Infection rate is number of people each positive person is infecting, so 1.4 in Dade means instead of 3500 next Week they will have close to 5000
GT_EE78
Banned
- Messages
- 3,605
You sound fortunate that your schools were well prepared and diligent with the zoom meetings. In my area school ended without any zoom or live interaction.
Most teachers did as little as possible and it was on the parents to act on what was sent out.
- Messages
- 10,057
- Location
- Williamsburg Virginia
We've been through a Civil War, the 60's, Know-Nothing Party, Harding Tea Pot Dome scandal, etc, etc, etc. We'll make it.
And people are intentionally stupid. Rays catcher is smart, many Floridians are brain dead. Unfortunately masks protect others better than the wearer. A reverse Darwin situation.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles...s-faced-wearing-mask-in-florida-amid-pandemic
- Messages
- 10,057
- Location
- Williamsburg Virginia
I posted this over in the football thread (3 Georgia Tech athletes have tested positive for COVID-19. ). In answer to a question about the decreased number of deaths reported in the CDC database:
No, it's mostly the lag in death certificates coming in. This is the raw number of death certificates filed. Column 4 shows the deaths certificates recorded in the 7/3 to 7/9 period for the different weeks ending. For example, 38 more death certificates were filed for the week ending 2/1/2020 (!) during the period of 7/3 to 7/10. This is raw CDC data in columns 1-4 and the rest is manipulated as shown.
The improvement in estimated excess deaths is probably better treatments and the average age of cases being 15 years younger and maybe the new strain (European) being less virulent. Unfortunately, too many independent variables for me to know.
And yes the number of extrapolated excess deaths is falling off through the week ending 7/4/2020. We'll see how long that continues with cases and hospital intakes up.
No, it's mostly the lag in death certificates coming in. This is the raw number of death certificates filed. Column 4 shows the deaths certificates recorded in the 7/3 to 7/9 period for the different weeks ending. For example, 38 more death certificates were filed for the week ending 2/1/2020 (!) during the period of 7/3 to 7/10. This is raw CDC data in columns 1-4 and the rest is manipulated as shown.
The improvement in estimated excess deaths is probably better treatments and the average age of cases being 15 years younger and maybe the new strain (European) being less virulent. Unfortunately, too many independent variables for me to know.
And yes the number of extrapolated excess deaths is falling off through the week ending 7/4/2020. We'll see how long that continues with cases and hospital intakes up.
Last edited:
- Status