Coronavirus Thread

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slugboy said:
I’ve seen a lot of work on distancing inside the schools, but I haven’t seen much in getting there and back. Many parents depend on carpools or buses, as do the parking lots of schools. If everyone drives their kids alone to school, the drop off and pickup lines will be massive, and easily spill onto the streets.
Bus drivers are reportedly retiring en masse this year.


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I continue to believe that teachers are going to be the most difficult part. I have several friends who are teachers and you should see the panic that they are in right now on social media. They are scared to death of having their students infect them and kill them. I don’t know how you manage a school district when many of your employees are going to act like that. I mean, I get part of that feeling, but I think they are going to have a very difficult time opening schools - not because of science, not because of any spreading of the disease...but because teachers are going to revolt and resist almost anything that isn’t remote. I hope they are putting teachers into the 2 groups and giving that batch the online part and the other regular responsibilities.
 
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Facts can be spun anyway people want. I expect that COVID-19 will end up 2020 in third place for causes of death in the US. If COVID-19 overtakes cancer or heart disease, we have truly failed on an epic scale as opposed to the scale we are currently failing on IMHO.

But others may disagree and say that restricting access in various forms is worse than say ~400K yearly COVID deaths. Obviously many people don't eat well or exercize or smoke and kill themselves that way. We all have to die and it's a question of how one wants to live one's life. The difference with COVID is that a higher percentage of those deaths are probably from external sources as opposed to controlling diet and exercise or not smoking.

Here are the 2017 CDC stats for US deaths (CLRD = Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease which is from smoking mostly??):

upload_2020-7-11_13-30-14-png.8544


And no COVID-19 isn't going away. My suspicion is that the "European" strain in the US is as infectious or more infectious as the original "Asian" strain.

As to mortality, we are learning better how to treat this disease so mortality rates should go down. And my suspicion is that the "European" strain has a lower mortality rate. There is no real way to separate all the independent variables leading to mortality on top of a changing underlying virus to confirm these suspicions. So I'll keep watching the excess death rate and COVID deaths as % of total deaths. Both are going up; no one knows how high.
 

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bwelbo said:
I continue to believe that teachers are going to be the most difficult part. I have several friends who are teachers and you should see the panic that they are in right now on social media. They are scared to death of having their students infect them and kill them. I don’t know how you manage a school district when many of your employees are going to act like that. I mean, I get part of that feeling, but I think they are going to have a very difficult time opening schools - not because of science, not because of any spreading of the disease...but because teachers are going to revolt and resist almost anything that isn’t remote. I hope they are putting teachers into the 2 groups and giving that batch the online part and the other regular responsibilities.
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Let’s be honest. Teachers, for the most part, aren’t the cream of the crop. They are in teaching and academia for a reason. Many couldn’t cut it outside of government schools. It’s no surprise to me that this is going this way.
 

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More total and complete anti-science lies from major media:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/us/coronavirus-churches-outbreaks.html

Churches demanding to re-open are facing outbreaks.

Now read the article - since the beginning of the pandemic, only 650 cases (out of more than 3,000,000) have been linked to churches. At that rate, churches to me seem like one of the safest places in the country.

So instead of focusing on other things that lead to 0.9998 of the cases, they’re focusing on the 0.0002. Seems normal.
 
Buzzbomb

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stech81 said:
My wife talks all the time is that a sign for having the virus or just being a female.
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She’s got coronaloveitis, and is flirting with you good buddy! It’s a symptom during coronageddon. O.K. you’re right, it is part of being female.

Personal note: Our friend Scottie has been lurking over on The Hive for the past month or so. Old times, good times!!
 
herb

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bwelbo said:
Anybody who doesn’t have immunity here should not get pulled into the political banter.
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what is this immunity and how does one get it? Sounds like if it is good for one it should be good for all
 
iopjacket

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bwelbo said:
More total and complete anti-science lies from major media:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/us/coronavirus-churches-outbreaks.html

Churches demanding to re-open are facing outbreaks.

Now read the article - since the beginning of the pandemic, only 650 cases (out of more than 3,000,000) have been linked to churches. At that rate, churches to me seem like one of the safest places in the country.

So instead of focusing on other things that lead to 0.9998 of the cases, they’re focusing on the 0.0002. Seems normal.
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I don't know the death rate on Churches, but you have large groups inside with very little spacing. Even with facemasts on, IMHO, it is prefect setting for spreading COVID-19.

The death rate in Churches may be low because most have been closed.
 
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iopjacket said:
I don't know the death rate on Churches, but you have large groups inside with very little spacing. Even with facemasts on, IMHO, it is prefect setting for spreading COVID-19.
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It could indeed be a very dangerous place depending on spacing, masks, etc. But it is not even close to an even minuscule rounding error for being a problem in real life. Clearly churches are operating responsibly right now. The article is panic porn.
 
iopjacket

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bwelbo said:
It could indeed be a very dangerous place depending on spacing, masks, etc. But it is not even close to an even minuscule rounding error for being a problem in real life. Clearly churches are operating responsibly right now. The article is panic porn.
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I found link with 38% infection rate at a Chruch event, but its your life have at it.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6920e2.htm

Some more panic porn.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/judyst...pening-churches-and-coronavirus/#3f9a7685326e
 
forensicbuzz

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684Bee said:
Let’s be honest. Teachers, for the most part, aren’t the cream of the crop. They are in teaching and academia for a reason. Many couldn’t cut it outside of government schools. It’s no surprise to me that this is going this way.
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Not in my kids' schools. The average salary is $133,000/year. They attract great teachers who teach very well.
 

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forensicbuzz said:
Not in my kids' schools. The average salary is $133,000/year. They attract great teachers who teach very well.
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We have friends in private schools - the times stayed the same every day and it was live zoom meetings. Our own kids in public schools were a joke. My 8th grade son and senior daughter never spoke live to a single teacher a single time the last 3 months. My son had assignments each day to get done. He’d sleep in until 10am, have breakfast and do his work, and he was done by 12-1pm. The teachers were the laziest I’ve ever seen. No zoom meetings, no live conversations, no nothing.
 

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My mother is teacher. Biggest issue with re-opening schools will most definitely be transportation to and from. Their initial budget proposal from the school district limited people on buses to 6 (six) per bus, and smaller classroom sizes. It would be split learning with k-6 taking up the entirety of the elementary and middle school with smaller class sizes, then 7-8, 9-10, 11,12 all having 2 on 2 off in the entire high school, with online learning the other days. Everyone not able to provide transportation is opted in to online only classes. Obviously a terrible outcome for equity, but that’s what’s being thrown around. USA can’t really follow the same mode as what Europe did for schools due to our very large differences in transportation and population density
 

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smathis30 said:
My mother is teacher. Biggest issue with re-opening schools will most definitely be transportation to and from. Their initial budget proposal from the school district limited people on buses to 6 (six) per bus, and smaller classroom sizes. It would be split learning with k-6 taking up the entirety of the elementary and middle school with smaller class sizes, then 7-8, 9-10, 11,12 all having 2 on 2 off in the entire high school, with online learning the other days. Everyone not able to provide transportation is opted in to online only classes. Obviously a terrible outcome for equity, but that’s what’s being thrown around. USA can’t really follow the same mode as what Europe did for schools due to our very large differences in transportation and population density
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Yep, my middle school went to FOUR high schools to balance racial mixes and they changed zoning almost every year (Charlotte). Our regulations and processes hamstring us a lot on these things.
 
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