Coronavirus Thread

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GT_EE78

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bwelbo said:
It’s wildly wrong. Maybe they’re only counting severe ICU beds or something.
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I think he was only referring to admissions during that week rather than hospitalized totals...
>panic media doesn't always report good news - data is from worldometers
> huge positive trend here
upload_2020-6-22_17-41-34.jpeg
 

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GT_EE78 said:
I think he was only referring to admissions during that week rather than hospitalized totals...
>panic media doesn't always report good news - data is from worldometers
> huge positive trend here
View attachment 8454
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The numbers I am listing is all COVID-19 patients currently right now in the hospital.
 
Techster

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Well, the results of opening up are starting to trickle in from all the states. California...holy sh!t:



Now extrapolate those two weeks over the next month. Now do the math for the 48 contiguous states.

Good luck everyone, be safe.
 

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GTNavyNuke said:
Bet a beer the deaths go back up in June. The data is only through May and there is a lag in death certificate filing.

Excess deaths are the truth. problem is it takes months to get all those death certificates filed.

Darwin is alive and well. Unfortunately he is causing a lot of collateral damage.
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Don’t forget deaths are always announced in real time, so while there is a lag time in actual death certificate filing, the numbers you see on the news and those Johns Hopkins websites are up to the latest day.
 
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bwelbo said:
Don’t forget deaths are always announced in real time, so while there is a lag time in actual death certificate filing, the numbers you see on the news and those Johns Hopkins websites are up to the latest day.
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Without a death certificate, how is the cause of death assigned?

No one knew my mom died for six months till a death certificate got filed. Other than the ad I paid for in the local paper. Who tracks those nationwide and ensures all are counted and there are no double counts? No one.

The website is up to date on filed death certificates. That's it. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/post-mortem/things-to-know/death-certificates.html

Check out again the excess death stats I posted last weekend. 150 deaths were just added for the week ending 1 Feb. It is not a glamorous area and up till recently, no one outside of those trying to settle estates cared.
 
potatohead

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bwelbo said:
sorry, the last time I looked we had tested more than the rest of the world combined. If that isn’t still the case, I would at least assume that we are close. The point being, we have 5% of the worlds population. Anybody who thinks that we have six times the number of cases and deaths per capita is suffering from how bad the rest of the worlds data is. Take a country like the UK - many people think they have the best healthcare system in the world. Do we really all think that they have almost a 20% death rate? No way. They still have “no tests” for many people who need them.
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This isn't remotely true.

As of now the US has tested 29mm people. The next three are Russia, UK, and India that total 32mm. Then, you know, the rest of the entire world....By the way, we don't know how many tests China has done.

Tests per capita, the US is ranked 26th

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
 

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potatohead said:
This isn't remotely true.

As of now the US has tested 29mm people. The next three are Russia, UK, and India that total 32mm. Then, you know, the rest of the entire world....By the way, we don't know how many tests China has done.

Tests per capita, the US is ranked 26th

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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They must have gotten their acts in gear.T was true as of a month or so ago. Good for them. We’ll never be the leader in per capita testing and that’s okay. It’s much easier to oversee a few thousand test kits than several million.
 

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GTNavyNuke said:
Without a death certificate, how is the cause of death assigned?

No one knew my mom died for six months till a death certificate got filed. Other than the ad I paid for in the local paper. Who tracks those nationwide and ensures all are counted and there are no double counts? No one.

The website is up to date on filed death certificates. That's it. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/post-mortem/things-to-know/death-certificates.html

Check out again the excess death stats I posted last weekend. 150 deaths were just added for the week ending 1 Feb. It is not a glamorous area and up till recently, no one outside of those trying to settle estates cared.
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If you look at those websites and the numbers announced on the news, it’s the real time numbers as of yesterday. It’s why those numbers like “120,000“ deaths is always 15-20,000 ahead of the CDC and death certificates.

We’ve covered this before.

CDC death certificates filed: 105,000:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

Real time: 120,000:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The real time number is what you hear on the news every day.
 
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MWBATL

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Techster said:
Of course we can continue to do what we've been doing as the world looks upon us horrified that the country that built a science and economic powerhouse is ignoring it all...for what?
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Umm, for what? Why to sustain the economy and the lives and welfare of the other 329 million people in the country who are not affected by the virus, that's for what. You know that, you just don't agree with it or like it. But throughout, the issue has been the same....how to balance the impact of the virus on those directly affected against the impact of prevention on those not directly affected.

Your protests are either willfully ignoring this or misrepresenting it, for what?
 

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3 weeks ago, 7 COVID-19 patients at 1 of our local hospitals. 10 days later it was 22. It’s 33 now. 5x increase in less than 3 weeks.
 
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MWBATL said:
Umm, for what? Why to sustain the economy and the lives and welfare of the other 329 million people in the country who are not affected by the virus, that's for what. You know that, you just don't agree with it or like it. But throughout, the issue has been the same....how to balance the impact of the virus on those directly affected against the impact of prevention on those not directly affected.

Your protests are either willfully ignoring this or misrepresenting it, for what?
Click to expand...

What the F are you blathering about? You may have missed all my post about trying to balance doing what's right in terms of slowing down the virus, versus what's right for our economy and the livelihood of our citizens. Of course, if you would have read the multiple posts where I talked about it, it might not have given you a box to get on for your silly rant.

Do yourself a favor and go back to my previous posts. We're way past the point of shut downs anymore, because those things only work when EVERYONE sacrifices and follows the directions. We didn't get that the first time, so what makes anyone think it's going to happen the second time? Which brings me to this: What we are being told by virologist and epidemiologist, since quaratining the entire nation again is economically untenable at this point, is we have to take upon ourselves to wear face mask and social distance. The fact that we have idiots arguing about "freedom of rights" when wearing face mask, and we have an idiot in charge of the nation that politicizes the easiest thing we can do to help curb the spread of the virus (hint: wearing a facemask), and we have even more idiots packing bars and restaurants in the midst of the first wave of a pandemic...well, that tells you our chances of beating this virus without inadvertent herd immunity.

I'll say it again. For the people who thought we overreacted the first time, you're going to get your wish in the next few weeks. We're about to see a nation of 300+ million, with dense cities throughout the country as large as other countries, become an real live experiment on what happens when we don't take an infectious disease serious enough.

That month that we shutdown economically? Let's see what the economic toll is when millions are sick and can't work, or products get contaminated on the production line and have to be thrown out, productions lines getting shutdown because not enough people are healthy enough to run it. Again, there will be no winners.
 

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Techster said:
What the F are you blathering about? You may have missed all my post about trying to balance doing what's right in terms of slowing down the virus, versus what's right for our economy and the livelihood of our citizens. Of course, if you would have read the multiple posts where I talked about it, it might not have given you a box to get on for your silly rant.

Do yourself a favor and go back to my previous posts. We're way past the point of shut downs anymore, because those things only work when EVERYONE sacrifices and follows the directions. We didn't get that the first time, so what makes anyone think it's going to happen the second time? Which brings me to this: What we are being told by virologist and epidemiologist, since quaratining the entire nation again is economically untenable at this point, is we have to take upon ourselves to wear face mask and social distance. The fact that we have idiots arguing about "freedom of rights" when wearing face mask, and we have an idiot in charge of the nation that politicizes the easiest thing we can do to help curb the spread of the virus (hint: wearing a facemask), and we have even more idiots packing bars and restaurants in the midst of the first wave of a pandemic...well, that tells you our chances of beating this virus without inadvertent herd immunity.

I'll say it again. For the people who thought we overreacted the first time, you're going to get your wish in the next few weeks. We're about to see a nation of 300+ million, with dense cities throughout the country as large as other countries, become an real live experiment on what happens when we don't take an infectious disease serious enough.

That month that we shutdown economically? Let's see what the economic toll is when millions are sick and can't work, or products get contaminated on the production line and have to be thrown out, productions lines getting shutdown because not enough people are healthy enough to run it. Again, there will be no winners.
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Yep, and we didn't really even truly shutdown the first time. People weren't wearing masks at all back then, because the CDC said we didn't need to. We still had 30,000 new cases every day, even when under those shelter-in-place orders. Now with benefit of hindsight we know that the lack of wearing masks was a big reason why we kept seeing so many cases when the country was shut down. So yea, its no wonder why we're about to set new records for new daily cases nationally here shortly. I wouldn't be surprised if nationally we're hitting 36,000-38,000 new cases in a single day by the end of the week. And totally unnecessary, that's what is so silly. We can go out and live life and still be safe if we want to. The social media comments on local news stories and what-not about cases is just embarrassing for how stupid the average person is.
 
GT_EE78

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FDA issues warning over certain hand sanitizers due to potentially toxic chemicals
The products are still available for purchase, the FDA warns
Nine products manufactured by the Mexico-based company, which are still on the market, may contain methanol, which can be poisonous if absorbed through the skin or ingested, the FDA said in a letter. The warning covers the following products manufactured by Eskbiochem:
  • All-Clean Hand Sanitizer
  • Esk Biochem Hand Sanitizer
  • CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 75% Alcohol
  • Lavar 70 Gel Hand Sanitizer
  • The Good Gel Antibacterial Gel Hand Sanitizer
  • CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 80% Alcohol
  • CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 75% Alcohol
  • CleanCare NoGerm Advanced Hand Sanitizer 80% Alcohol
  • Saniderm Advanced Hand Sanitizer

 

takethepoints

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Techster said:
What the F are you blathering about? You may have missed all my post about trying to balance doing what's right in terms of slowing down the virus, versus what's right for our economy and the livelihood of our citizens. Of course, if you would have read the multiple posts where I talked about it, it might not have given you a box to get on for your silly rant.

Do yourself a favor and go back to my previous posts. We're way past the point of shut downs anymore, because those things only work when EVERYONE sacrifices and follows the directions. We didn't get that the first time, so what makes anyone think it's going to happen the second time? Which brings me to this: What we are being told by virologist and epidemiologist, since quaratining the entire nation again is economically untenable at this point, is we have to take upon ourselves to wear face mask and social distance. The fact that we have idiots arguing about "freedom of rights" when wearing face mask, and we have an idiot in charge of the nation that politicizes the easiest thing we can do to help curb the spread of the virus (hint: wearing a facemask), and we have even more idiots packing bars and restaurants in the midst of the first wave of a pandemic...well, that tells you our chances of beating this virus without inadvertent herd immunity.

I'll say it again. For the people who thought we overreacted the first time, you're going to get your wish in the next few weeks. We're about to see a nation of 300+ million, with dense cities throughout the country as large as other countries, become an real live experiment on what happens when we don't take an infectious disease serious enough.

That month that we shutdown economically? Let's see what the economic toll is when millions are sick and can't work, or products get contaminated on the production line and have to be thrown out, productions lines getting shutdown because not enough people are healthy enough to run it. Again, there will be no winners.
Click to expand...
As you say here, what it comes down to is simple enough. If people don't feel safe, you can "open the economy" to your heart's content and still not return to normal economic activity. If people continue to avoid - and, down here with the strong air conditioning systems, they had better - theaters, restaurants, bars, office buildings, and large indoor gatherings then the level of consumption needed to get the economy back on keel will continue to elude us. We blew our first try and it will be difficult to close down again. But, if the R value goes up to around 2, we will have to do it or risk a situation like the first cholera epidemic. Let's hope that those UK RCTs of different drug combinations continue to bear fruit.

An aside: here's a good chart on testing that puts our efforts in comparative perspective:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-covid-19-tests-per-confirmed-case-bar-chart

The title tells the story. We've done a lot of tests, but not in comparison to the scope of our problem.

This is revealing too:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/case-fatality-rate-vs-tests-per-confirmed-case

You can get regional comparisons by using the legend on the right. It'll be interesting to find out why Belgium, the UK, Italy, and Hungary have such high fatality rates. The Belgians say it's because they are counting all the deaths. But this'll have to wait for the aftermath; put the fire out then get the inventory for losses.
 
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takethepoints said:
This is revealing too:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/case-fatality-rate-vs-tests-per-confirmed-case

You can get regional comparisons by using the legend on the right. It'll be interesting to find out why Belgium, the UK, Italy, and Hungary have such high fatality rates. The Belgians say it's because they are counting all the deaths. But this'll have to wait for the aftermath; put the fire out then get the inventory for losses.
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Typically on charts like that, you'll find countries or areas that had complete dysfunction with respect to tests. My cousin lives in the UK and took over 2 weeks to get over COVID-19. She had twice a day talks with the doctor, who told her not to get into the hospital unless it was gravely serious...luckily it never got that bad. But he told her the entire time "there are no tests", and he was just treating her under the assumption she had it based on her symptoms. That was going on the entire time. Same in Italy. They had so many people coming into the hospital with the usual symptoms they didn't want to waste tests on them when they'd just be confirming what they knew. They wanted to save the tests for other purposes if possible. The UK at one point was close to 20% mortality rate - there's no way they had that...it just looked that way on the surface due to lack of testing relative to their case count/population.
 
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