Coronavirus Thread

[GT_EE78]

More math time:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

As of 6.24.2020:

Total worldwide Covid infections: 9.4 million
Total US Covid infections: 2.3+ million

Total wordwide population: 7.8 Billion
Total US population: 330+ million

The US makes up about 4% of the world's population, but we're responsible for 24% of the world's infections.

American excellence in full view.

LOL

 

[Techster]

Its not that your numbers were false, its that your assertion is false...I think. That's why I said I hope you don't really believe that the US represents 6x per capita the number of cases that it shows on paper. I just gave you a link to Brazil for example, where they're running a 55% positive test rate. Health experts there think right now there are 10-15x as many cases in reality. I think in the US we have a lot of cases out there that are undiagnosed...but I don't for a minute think its 10-15x what we are showing on paper - the positive test rate and the testing volumes don't support that. There are many other countries like Brazil out there - I pointed to Italy and the UK as examples. There's no way there death rates were close to 20% - they just weren't testing enough to know how many cases they actually had. Google 'how many people in Italy actually had the coronavirus' - you'll see tons of articles about people dying by the thousands who never made it to a hospital and who weren't counted in the deaths. If you look at how new daily cases in many countries has dropped massively (think UK, Spain, Italy, etc.), that's even further proof - they had so many cases they basically got close to herd immunity there.

That's the problem everyone has with your statement - it wasn't that you were just reporting numbers on a page - you were making assertions that the United States is 6x more worse off than the rest of the world, which is a patently false assertion when you look at conditions in other countries around the world.

Again, another example of losing the plot. I don't care if people have issues with the numbers really because like the data scientist use, people will end up interpreting it however they want to fit their narrative (as we're seeing now). The numbers were just an example of the bigger picture. America is just dealing with all of this so poorly. Like I said to @RonJohn, the fact that we are in the same sentence as China and Inda...and in your case, Italy and Brazil tells us all we need to know. The fact that we are accusing other countries of pulling slight of hands while our president flat out admitted to it (TWICE!!) is concerning in and of itself.

If you guys want to continue on with a debate about semantics and the shadiness of other countries handling this...sure. Keep going. It still doesn't change that the US is a BIG part of the worldwide infection picture.

 

[RonJohn]

People are losing the plot about how poorly we are dealing with things because they want to get into the weeds of semantics.

You are using invalid numbers to make bold statements about how bad the US is dealing with things. The US most likely does not have 24% of the worlds infections of COVID-19. The website where you got those numbers does not make that proclamation. You did. That website only reports confirmed infections that are publicly reported. That website makes no claims to report total infections.

If you want to prove a "plot about how poorly we are dealing with things", then use actual facts that support your claims. It isn't semantics to point out that your actual claim doesn't match the data that you are presenting to support your claim. Your post is no different than people who post charts from twitter that show everything is going well.

 

[RonJohn]

Again, another example of losing the plot. I don't care if people have issues with the numbers really because like the data scientist use, people will end up interpreting it however they want to fit their narrative (as we're seeing now).

In other words: It doesn't matter what the numbers actually show, you will just post them and make invalid claims about them.

The numbers you posted DO NOT indicate that the US has 24% of the worlds infections. The numbers you posted DO NOT even indicate that the US has 24% of the worlds confirmed infections. The numbers indicate that the US has 24% of the confirmed and publicly reported infections. You made the assertion that those numbers are proof that the US is dealing with it poorly. Johns Hopkins did not make that assertion.

 

[Techster]

You are using invalid numbers to make bold statements about how bad the US is dealing with things. The US most likely does not have 24% of the worlds infections of COVID-19. The website where you got those numbers does not make that proclamation. You did. That website only reports confirmed infections that are publicly reported. That website makes no claims to report total infections.

If you want to prove a "plot about how poorly we are dealing with things", then use actual facts that support your claims. It isn't semantics to point out that your actual claim doesn't match the data that you are presenting to support your claim. Your post is no different than people who post charts from twitter that show everything is going well.

OK, man. Let's do it this way.

What does the Johns Hopkins website have as the *publicly reported* Covid infections numbers for the world?
What does the Johns Hopkins website have for the *publicly reported* Covid infections numbers for the United States?

I don't want to hear that it's not accurate because China or India or Brazil or Italy or Zimbabwe did or didn't do something. Just answer those two questions I posed.

 

[RonJohn]

If you guys want to continue on with a debate about semantics and the shadiness of other countries handling this...sure. Keep going. It still doesn't change that the US is a BIG part of the worldwide infection picture.

Again, what is this claim based on? Do you know the number of total infections in the US? Do you know the number of total infections in the world? The Johns Hopkins data does not support this claim.

I am not refuting your claim. I don't know the actual numbers either. You claim that I am ignoring actual data, but you haven't presented any actual data as of yet.

 

[Techster]

In other words: It doesn't matter what the numbers actually show, you will just post them and make invalid claims about them.

The numbers you posted DO NOT indicate that the US has 24% of the worlds infections. The numbers you posted DO NOT even indicate that the US has 24% of the worlds confirmed infections. The numbers indicate that the US has 24% of the confirmed and publicly reported infections. You made the assertion that those numbers are proof that the US is dealing with it poorly. Johns Hopkins did not make that assertion.

Thanks for making my point about obfuscating by making it a debate on semantics. I posed a couple of questions for you in another post. Please answer them.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Again, another example of losing the plot. I don't care if people have issues with the numbers really because like the data scientist use, people will end up interpreting it however they want to fit their narrative (as we're seeing now). The numbers were just an example of the bigger picture. America is just dealing with all of this so poorly. Like I said to @RonJohn, the fact that we are in the same sentence as China and Inda...and in your case, Italy and Brazil tells us all we need to know. The fact that we are accusing other countries of pulling slight of hands while our president flat out admitted to it (TWICE!!) is concerning in and of itself.

If you guys want to continue on with a debate about semantics and the shadiness of other countries handling this...sure. Keep going. It still doesn't change that the US is a BIG part of the worldwide infection picture.

That's not what anybody is saying. And I think you know that.

 

[RonJohn]

OK, man. Let's do it this way.

What does the Johns Hopkins website have as the *publicly reported* Covid infections numbers for the world?
What does the Johns Hopkins website have for the *publicly reported* Covid infections numbers for the United States?

I don't want to hear that it's not accurate because China or India or Brazil or Italy or Zimbabwe did or didn't do something. Just answer those two questions I posed.

*publicly reported --confirmed* Covid is not a valid number to use for comparisons. Period. It doesn't matter if it is China, the UK, Korea, wherever. That number is not a valid number to base comparisons off of. Period.

No need to answer the question about the Johns Hopkins data, because that data is not valid for comparisons.

 

[Techster]

*publicly reported --confirmed* Covid is not a valid number to use for comparisons. Period. It doesn't matter if it is China, the UK, Korea, wherever. That number is not a valid number to base comparisons off of. Period.

No need to answer the question about the Johns Hopkins data, because that data is not valid for comparisons.

LOL...OK, thanks for letting me know you just want to debate semantics instead of the broader point I was making. Have a good day.

 

[RonJohn]

Thanks for making my point about obfuscating by making it a debate on semantics. I posed a couple of questions for you in another post. Please answer them.

Thank you for trying to make it solely about what the Johns Hopkins data is and obfuscating your false assertions about that data. I have asked several times for data that is actually valid for comparisons. I have asked several times for actual arguments about the US's poor performance. Please provide those.

Once again, I am not arguing that the US's response to the virus has been good. I am simply pointing out that you are using data that does not support the claims that you are making.

 

[Techster]

Thank you for trying to make it solely about what the Johns Hopkins data is and obfuscating your false assertions about that data. I have asked several times for data that is actually valid for comparisons. I have asked several times for actual arguments about the US's poor performance. Please provide those.

Once again, I am not arguing that the US's response to the virus has been good. I am simply pointing out that you are using data that does not support the claims that you are making.

Well, since you seem to think Johns Hopkins isn't a good data reference, please let us all know a better one. Johns Hopkins may not be valid for you because it doesn't fit your defense, but it's been cited as one of the best sources of up to date Covid data in the world. Maybe it's not good enough for keyboard warriors on messageboards?

I'm always open to analyzing difference sources. If your sources are far superior, I'm open to parsing it...and I'm open to changing my opinion based on it. So, please share your source and I'll get to work.

EDIT:

Oh, to answer your question on "I have asked several times for actual arguments about the US's poor performance." Really? Is that a debate anymore?

 

[RonJohn]

LOL...OK, thanks for letting me know you just want to debate semantics instead of the broader point I was making. Have a good day.

In other words, don't pay attention to what you say. Only pay attention to some greater point that you are making about some societal issue.

That is exactly how entrenched political arguments work. You provide detailed "proof" of some greater argument. Then when the "proof" is undermined, you argue that the proof isn't actually what is important, it is the overarching issue that the "proof" was "proof" of.

If you take the 24% number out of your statement, it reads:

"The US makes up about 4% of the world's population, but we're responsible the world's infections.

American excellence in full view."

What is that supposed to mean?

Make arguments about infections going up as people attend protests, visit beaches, visit bars, etc. Especially point out those who visit without masks. Make arguments about political leadership or lack thereof. However, don't use numbers that don't support your claims as "proof", and then obfuscate the argument over those numbers and demand that others make recognition to what the numbers actually are even if it doesn't support your arguement.

 

[Techster]

In other words, don't pay attention to what you say. Only pay attention to some greater point that you are making about some societal issue.

That is exactly how entrenched political arguments work. You provide detailed "proof" of some greater argument. Then when the "proof" is undermined, you argue that the proof isn't actually what is important, it is the overarching issue that the "proof" was "proof" of.

If you take the 24% number out of your statement, it reads:

"The US makes up about 4% of the world's population, but we're responsible the world's infections.

American excellence in full view."

What is that supposed to mean?

Make arguments about infections going up as people attend protests, visit beaches, visit bars, etc. Especially point out those who visit without masks. Make arguments about political leadership or lack thereof. However, don't use numbers that don't support your claims as "proof", and then obfuscate the argument over those numbers and demand that others make recognition to what the numbers actually are even if it doesn't support your arguement.

I stand by my comments. You can twist it, and take certain data out to twist what I said even more, but it doesn't change the numbers I reported from Johns Hopkins. That you refuse to answer my questions prove you don't even hold yourself to your own standards.

 

[RamblinRed]

FWIW, NY/CT/NJ have just announced they are implementing a 14 day quarantine for people coming from any state where the positive test rate is above 10%
As of today that would be AL, AR, AZ, FL, NC, SC, TX, UT, WA

Since the avg changes every day what states might be impacted could change daily as well.

Berlin and NYC have both announced today that they are cancelling their marathons this year.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

FWIW, NY/CT/NJ have just announced they are implementing a 14 day quarantine for people coming from any state where the positive test rate is above 10%
As of today that would be AL, AR, AZ, FL, NC, SC, TX, UT, WA

Since the avg changes every day what states might be impacted could change daily as well.

Berlin and NYC have both announced today that they are cancelling their marathons this year.

Tell them we ain't comin, so they got nothing to worry about. Their bigger problem is how many people from up there fled down here.

 

[RonJohn]

Well, since you seem to think Johns Hopkins isn't a good data reference, please let us all know a better one. Johns Hopkins may not be valid for you because it doesn't fit your defense, but it's been cited as one of the best sources of up to date Covid data in the world. Maybe it's not good enough for keyboard warriors on messageboards?

I'm always open to analyzing difference sources. If your sources are far superior, I'm open to parsing it...and I'm open to changing my opinion based on it. So, please share your source and I'll get to work.

EDIT:

Oh, to answer your question on "I have asked several times for actual arguments about the US's poor performance." Really? Is that a debate anymore?

I don't have any issue with the Johns Hopkins data. I have issue with your interpretation of the data. I look at it. I look at the Georgia DPH data for Georgia, since I live here. I look at the AJC Georgia data since I live here. I look at the IHME data.(for historical data, not the projections.) I look at the CDC data. All of that is valid data.

You just have to be careful to understand what the data is and what the data means. Take the AJC data vs the GA DPH data. The AJC counts data when it is reported. The DPH counts data on the date of the test/death/etc. Both are valid ways of looking at the data, you just have to understand how it is presented.

The Johns Hopkins data is confirmed cases. It doesn't matter if the number of tests go up or down. It doesn't matter if the percentages of positives goes up or down. It doesn't matter if a location has enough tests or not. It doesn't capture if a location decides not to report their data. It is valid data. It provides a baseline. We know there are at least 2.3 million cases in the US and at least 9.3 million cases worldwide. There could be 1 billion cases worldwide and the Johns Hopkins data wouldn't capture that, because it only provides cases that were confirmed and reported. My disagreement with using that data for comparisons is that not all locations test the same and not all locations report the same. Even just along a timeline in the US, that data did not account for the increased testing in May. There was increased testing and a lower percentage of positives, but the Johns Hopkins data show approximately the same rise in confirmed infections. I believe most scientists believe that the number of total infections decreased in May in the US, but you can't see that in the Johns Hopkins data. Once again, it is valid data but it has limitations. It isn't valid data for comparisons between locations or across timelines.

 

[Techster]

Tell them we ain't comin, so they got nothing to worry about. Their bigger problem is how many people from up there fled down here.

Remember when that area use to account for a large portion of the US's infections? Now they don't want anyone coming in.

Oh the good ol' days of Covid...

 

[RonJohn]

OK, man. Let's do it this way.

What does the Johns Hopkins website have as the *publicly reported* Covid infections numbers for the world?
What does the Johns Hopkins website have for the *publicly reported* Covid infections numbers for the United States?

The Johns Hopkins data is confirmed and publicly reported infections. Does that answer your question? That is exactly how I have described the data in my posts.

It is not valid data for comparisons. Period.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Remember when that area use to account for a large portion of the US's infections? Now they don't want anyone coming in.

Oh the good ol' days of Covid...

Well, as I said, they need to worry about their own citizens, not us.

We're not going up there, but they're coming down here and have been coming down here. There are estimates that about 500,000 people left New York over the last couple months. Those people coming back are who they need to be wary of. And when New Yorkers go on vacation and come back, that's who they need to be wary of. Nobody down here is going up there. They're writing these orders referring to out of state people, but that's not who should be the target of their carefulness.