Coronavirus Thread

[GT_EE78]

> good news
No Coronavirus Spike in States That Lifted Lockdowns Early, ABC Reports
“JUST IN: [ABC News] looked at 21 states that eased restrictions May 4 or earlier & found no major increase in hospitalizations, deaths or % of people testing positive in any of them. [SC, MT, GA, MS, SD, AR, CO, ID, IA, ND, OK, TN, TX, UT, WY, KS, FL, IN, MO, NE, OH] via [Ariel Mitropoulos],” ABC News lead medical reporter Eric Strauss tweeted.
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politi...at-lifted-lockdowns-early-abc-reports-n443293

 

[dtm1997]

 

[684Bee]

> good news
No Coronavirus Spike in States That Lifted Lockdowns Early, ABC Reports
“JUST IN: [ABC News] looked at 21 states that eased restrictions May 4 or earlier & found no major increase in hospitalizations, deaths or % of people testing positive in any of them. [SC, MT, GA, MS, SD, AR, CO, ID, IA, ND, OK, TN, TX, UT, WY, KS, FL, IN, MO, NE, OH] via [Ariel Mitropoulos],” ABC News lead medical reporter Eric Strauss tweeted.
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politi...at-lifted-lockdowns-early-abc-reports-n443293

Good news. Even better than those of us on the re-open side had thought and predicted.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

> good news
No Coronavirus Spike in States That Lifted Lockdowns Early, ABC Reports
“JUST IN: [ABC News] looked at 21 states that eased restrictions May 4 or earlier & found no major increase in hospitalizations, deaths or % of people testing positive in any of them. [SC, MT, GA, MS, SD, AR, CO, ID, IA, ND, OK, TN, TX, UT, WY, KS, FL, IN, MO, NE, OH] via [Ariel Mitropoulos],” ABC News lead medical reporter Eric Strauss tweeted.
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politi...at-lifted-lockdowns-early-abc-reports-n443293

Wow, just sit back and let that sink in for a minute. That article/study/dataset basically states we didn’t gain anything from shutting the country down.

 

[GT_EE78]

Wow, just sit back and let that sink in for a minute. That article/study/dataset basically states we didn’t gain anything from shutting the country down.

I think most of us already knew that.. I still don't blame them given the info and some crazed models at the time. but when the medical system didn't get overwhelmed , we knew.

 

[GoldZ]

Why didn't the medical system get overwhelmed ?

 

[MWBATL]

Why didn't the medical system get overwhelmed ?

Two reasons:

1. the experts and their predictions were completely and totally wrong (most important reason); and
2. the lockdown helped slow the spread (far less important reason)

What would we have done without experts?

#science !!!

 

[MWBATL]

It's about what tests/studies have shown.

You mean the tests and studies in Lancet? You might want to read this

In an open letter to the Lancet’s editors and the study’s authors, some 120 doctors, statisticians and epidemiologists write that the headlines about the study “have caused considerable concern to participants and patients enrolled in randomized controlled trials” evaluating the drugs. Thus many researchers have scrutinized the data, and the “scrutiny has raised both methodological and data integrity concerns.”-WSJ, 6/2/2020

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-la...arial-drugs-11591053222?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

Why is it that so many gullible people think that #science is settled and incontrovertible? There remains so much to learn about the human body, the virus, etc etc etc (same thing with climate change, and many other issues where one side screams #science all the time). I work in the field of chemistry. I know how much we DON'T know. You'd be shocked at how many new ideas and applications are being found every day.

 

[GTRX7]

Wow, just sit back and let that sink in for a minute. That article/study/dataset basically states we didn’t gain anything from shutting the country down.

Extremely silly conclusion. Look at the trajectory of virtually every country that locked down hard and early. There has been an undeniable correlation between locking down and flattening/reducing the curve. That is true even in the places that were hit the hardest like Italy, Spain, New York. Moreover, many of those places have now lowered the curve enough that they are successfully starting to reopen without seeing a spike or long, flat tail.

Now compare those curves with the curves of some of the locations notorious for locking down the least, the latest, or opening too soon:

The impact of the shutdowns on flattening/lowering the curve and saving lives is undeniable. I am honestly a bit worried about the trajectory of Georgia now that life seems to have gotten much closer to normal over the last 10 days (including the protests). I don't necessarily expect a spike, but continuing this same largely flat trajectory over a long period is not good at all.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Extremely silly conclusion. Look at the trajectory of virtually every country that locked down hard and early. There has been an undeniable correlation between locking down and flattening/reducing the curve. That is true even in the places that were hit the hardest like Italy, Spain, New York. Moreover, many of those places have now lowered the curve enough that they are successfully starting to reopen without seeing a spike or long, flat tail.

Now compare those curves with the curves of some of the locations notorious for locking down the least, the latest, or opening too soon:

The impact of the shutdowns on flattening/lowering the curve and saving lives is undeniable. I am honestly a bit worried about the trajectory of Georgia now that life seems to have gotten much closer to normal over the last 10 days (including the protests).

Thank you for your condescension.

Rather than throw out 800 graphs and charts of other places who did NOT lock down hard and early, how about we discuss the article and data in question. For the last month, there is no discernible affect on moving from a shut down/shelter in place to a reopened economy. That point is the point which is the point.

Remember, New York didn't shut down playgrounds and locations like that until APRIL, LOL. Mass transit and all kinds of systems remained operational for a long time. When we sent a hospital ship to New York, the residents lined the water to take pictures. From what I've seen, it was the residents lack of social distancing, good hygiene, mask wearing, population density, etc. that lead to these huge spikes.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Thank you for your condescension.

Rather than throw out 800 graphs and charts of other places who did NOT lock down hard and early, how about we discuss the article and data in question. For the last month, there is no discernible affect on moving from a shut down/shelter in place to a reopened economy. That point is the point which is the point.

Remember, New York didn't shut down playgrounds and locations like that until APRIL, LOL. Mass transit and all kinds of systems remained operational for a long time. When we sent a hospital ship to New York, the residents lined the water to take pictures. From what I've seen, it was the residents lack of social distancing, good hygiene, mask wearing, population density, etc. that lead to these huge spikes.

Also, you may want to check the scale on some of those charts. Texas (for example), has nearly 4x the population of New York, yet New York peaked at more than 3x the cases per day as Texas. New York, Italy, and others are not the model for anybody to emulate.

 

[GoldZ]

You mean the tests and studies in Lancet? You might want to read this

In an open letter to the Lancet’s editors and the study’s authors, some 120 doctors, statisticians and epidemiologists write that the headlines about the study “have caused considerable concern to participants and patients enrolled in randomized controlled trials” evaluating the drugs. Thus many researchers have scrutinized the data, and the “scrutiny has raised both methodological and data integrity concerns.”-WSJ, 6/2/2020

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-la...arial-drugs-11591053222?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

Why is it that so many gullible people think that #science is settled and incontrovertible? There remains so much to learn about the human body, the virus, etc etc etc (same thing with climate change, and many other issues where one side screams #science all the time). I work in the field of chemistry. I know how much we DON'T know. You'd be shocked at how many new ideas and applications are being found every day.

Not gonna subscribe, so I guess Lancet > Oxford/Johns Hopkins and The Journal of Epidemiology? Btw, who claims it's settled, other than our last Prez? I'll tell ya what IS settled, and that is the fact that it was patently obvious that when the first bit of good news about reopening was out (never mind 6 states are not doing so well), that let er rippers would claim---see I told you so. It's like saying my team has won, never mind they are only ahead by 7 at the end of the 3rd qtr.
As a chemist who knows we learn about viruses every day, I'm surprised you want to crow after 3 to 4 weeks of reopening. Have we learned all there is about this one?

 

[LibertyTurns]

Also, you may want to check the scale on some of those charts. Texas (for example), has nearly 4x the population of New York, yet New York peaked at more than 3x the cases per day as Texas. New York, Italy, and others are not the model for anybody to emulate.

We still got people trying to hold NY in some sort of high regard despite practically picking damn near the worst course of action at every step of the way. There’s nobody in Florida outside of the idiots down in Miami that would rather be in NY and I’m not sure even they would. Our only complaint about DeSantis is he was too timid and bowed to the political pressure delaying doing what he knew to be right.

 

[GoldZ]

Extremely silly conclusion. Look at the trajectory of virtually every country that locked down hard and early. There has been an undeniable correlation between locking down and flattening/reducing the curve. That is true even in the places that were hit the hardest like Italy, Spain, New York. Moreover, many of those places have now lowered the curve enough that they are successfully starting to reopen without seeing a spike or long, flat tail.

Now compare those curves with the curves of some of the locations notorious for locking down the least, the latest, or opening too soon:

The impact of the shutdowns on flattening/lowering the curve and saving lives is undeniable. I am honestly a bit worried about the trajectory of Georgia now that life seems to have gotten much closer to normal over the last 10 days (including the protests). I don't necessarily expect a spike, but continuing this same largely flat trajectory over a long period is not good at all.

Aren't the curves remarkably similar between Georgia (11 M pop) and Sweden (9 M pop)!? If so, not a good club to join.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Aren't the curves remarkably similar between Georgia (11 M pop) and Sweden (9 M pop)!? If so, not a good club to join.

Sweden and Georgia have about the same population (10.5m). Sweden's death rate from COVID-19 is almost 2.5x higher (4,500 vs 2000), despite having a population density barely 1/3rd of Georgia.

 

[GoldZ]

Sweden and Georgia have about the same population (10.5m). Sweden's death rate from COVID-19 is almost 2.5x higher (4,500 vs 2000), despite having a population density barely 1/3rd of Georgia.

Yep, and the curves posted by GTRX7 were on new infections that were more or less flat for an extended period of time for both GA and Sweden. As he said, not good news---I agree. Testing is probably part of it, but it doesn't completely negate the concern.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Yep, and the curves posted by GTRX7 were on new infections that were more or less flat for an extended period of time for both GA and Sweden. As he said, not good news---I agree. Testing is probably part of it, but it doesn't completely negate the concern.

For Georgia, that’s what you want. You don’t want a zillion deaths and a quick peak like New York, and you don’t want a flat curve either if the plateau is extremely high like Sweden. You want a manageable consistent infection rate which leads to community immunity, while protecting the most vulnerable and while not overfilling the hospital system.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Back to Coronavirus memes, how about a little levity during such a stressful time. Its important to note the new rules for playing tennis. "You can kick their balls, but you can't touch them."

 

[MWBATL]

Not gonna subscribe, so I guess Lancet > Oxford/Johns Hopkins and The Journal of Epidemiology? Btw, who claims it's settled, other than our last Prez? I'll tell ya what IS settled, and that is the fact that it was patently obvious that when the first bit of good news about reopening was out (never mind 6 states are not doing so well), that let er rippers would claim---see I told you so. It's like saying my team has won, never mind they are only ahead by 7 at the end of the 3rd qtr.
As a chemist who knows we learn about viruses every day, I'm surprised you want to crow after 3 to 4 weeks of reopening. Have we learned all there is about this one?

Where did I crow? I was trying to point out that your criticism of a specific drug is NOT based on test results (yet) but is based on ... something more.

 

[GoldZ]

My link and post wasn't criticizing the drug. It was a study on how effective it has been on 300,000 patients by relatively prominent sources who cite test results.
I agree that we are learning every day about this, which is why I interpreted your critique of fellow scientists as "crowing". If we are learning on the fly about this novel virus, are we at a point already that we can assume the lockdowns were a mistake ? Seems that some who chose to not do so are still suffering economically (although perhaps less so), and are suffering a great deal more on the health side. Imo, what we are doing is correct based on economic necessity, but I do think we are doing it too quickly in certain locations.

Again....
Per GT_EE78 a few posts ago: https://academic.oup.com/aje/advance-article/doi/10.1093/aje/kwaa093/5847586