Coronavirus Thread

[gtbeak]

Since the CDC does exactly the same thing on their death chart tracking Covid deaths, you must think the same about them, right?

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
see asterisked note below the chart

to an extent yes. The CDC has a huge lag in terms of their reporting. But they have been upfront about it from the beginning. GA only started to respond to it and provide the footnotes when they were called out on it.

From an analysis standpoint you get a much better picture based on taking the data when it is reported.
They report the numbers on a specific day, but then for their charts are backdating the information, that gives you a false sense of security in terms of how the numbers are progressing.
They are now providing the footnotes but I doubt very many in the general public read that and understand.[/QUOTE]
It is not correct to state that "GA only started to respond to it and provide the footnotes when they were called out on it." See the article below and scroll down to the heading "When did they start graphing cases and deaths this way?""

I don't think there is ever a situation where it is better to analyze data that has an incorrect date when data that has the correct date is available. Sure you have to stay on your toes to make sure you are using the latest data, but that doesn't mean the incorrect data is better.

The footnotes are very clear. I think anyone who is able to navigate to the site and find the charts in the first place is able to read the footnote.

 

[GoldZ]

There is also zero evidence that the virus originated in the wet market, as so many have reported. That is also merely a theory with absolutely no supporting factual evidence.

Many countries are afraid of condemning China without hard evidence. Australia ahas already been threatened by the Chinese merely for suggesting there should be an investigation of the virus' origins. It should supris eno one that countries official positions reflect the Chinese view. What does surprise me is that US media is so ready to accept one unproven theory over another unproven theory.

Like you, I will never deny that virus have originated in wetmarkets before. Just as there have been lab errors before. The only thing I have seen "proven" (or close to it) is that this virus is not engineered. No one is arguing that it is engineered. But the bat that carries this virus

• was not ever sold in thr wet market
• is not native to Hubei and lives 600 miles away
• WAS being studied in the virology labs near the wet market
• samples from animals taken from that wet market have not been shared with western scientists and (to my knowledge) no reports have bene published that certify that the virus originated in them. One would think if China had such evidence they would not only have published it but shared the raw data with the west.

Simply arguing that western intelligence services all believe something is a typical Fake News talking point which, as we have all learned by now, does not necessarily reflect real intelligence, but the politically convenient slant that is desired. You will pardon me if the Five Eyes report which you cited earlier, and which I linked the Daily Telegraph's report on earlier which indicated that report could easily be read in other ways, doesn't persuade me one wit.

I await real evidence that it was indeed the wet market. There have been SO MANY reports over the last 3 years in particular that said "the intelligence community believes" which have turned out to be terrible reporting and merely the opinion of of one source in the Intelligence community.

This is from a segment on BBC with the Chinese Ambassador to the UK on April 30th. Everyone can make of it what they wish.
Sackur: It's a very important message you're sending. Maybe China could consider some gestures that would improve relations with not just the United States but many other countries, including Australia and the UK who've made the same point to your government.

One, will you now categorically guarantee to close down the so-called "wet markets", that there will no longer be the sale of these live wild animals in the food markets that are known as the "wet markets"? Is that now something that has been banned, not just short term, but absolutely banned forever in China?

Ambassador: First, on your first point about "many countries", I cannot agree with you that China has a problem with many countries. I would say we have more friends than opponents or enemies. A few Western countries do not represent the world. I think China enjoy good relationships. And I think we are building international response. As President Xi said, solidarity and cooperation are the most powerful weapons to fight the pandemic. I will come back to the "wet market".

Sackur: Ambassador, we are short of time. I just need specific answer on the "wet markets". Are they right now closed for good, yes or no?

Ambassador: There's no such a thing as "wet market". This is a Western, a foreign, notion to many Chinese. We do have fresh food markets where fresh vegetables, fresh seafood, fish, are sold, and some live poultry. I think you are talking about the so-called illegal market for selling wildlife. That has been totally banned. The law has been passed and it will be banned permanently. It's illegal……

Sackur: That is therefore a recognition -- I just want to be clear -- a recognition on your government's part that the dangers of those markets, where live wild animals were sold alongside other food stuff, they were dangers that did cause the spread coronavirus from animals to humans.

Ambassdor: I agree with that. Finally, we have a few points to agree on. I'm very pleased with that. That's why this market, we're talking about illegal wildlife market, is totally banned. It's illegal to hunt, to trade, to eat wild animals.

 

[LibertyTurns]

@RamblinRed You're right there’s no smoking gun, but if we’re waiting for a videotape it will never materialize. You’re alleging we should consider the following as being circumstantial but not related:
a. Outbreak occurs in China
b. Outbreak occurs in Wuhan
c. Outbreak occurs in close proximity to a newly commission bioweapons lab in Wuhan
d. The Wuhan lab had been reported to be concerning to international officials over lax security procedures
e. The Wuhan lab was working on coronavirus research and a variety of dangerous pathogens on how they go from animals to humans
f. The Wuhan lab was staffed with qualified yet inexperienced staff
g. Experienced labs have incidents, but an inexperienced lab does not
h. China destroyed samples needed to determine the virus origin
i. China has not permitted access by prominent international specialists to help investigate the origins
j. China has made numerous false representations, ie no human-human transmission, falsified numbers of deaths and cases, etc
k. China has threatened retaliation of other nations if they did not abide by China’s wishes
l. Key players in and associated with the Wuhan lab disappeared when communication they made went public
m. China makes up a story about how US soldiers came over and infected the Chinese in Wuhan.
n. All records and communications are being tightly controlled by the national political party officials

All this is just coincidental. Despite all of this mounting evidence we’ll just make up a story that fits a convenient narrative because we’re supposed to be Globalists? There’s absolutely zero evidence to suggest it came from anywhere besides the Wuhan lab other than a chinese expert that’s been told what to say says so and a few people affiliated with the lab and don’t want their research eliminated have said so as well. Your kid has chocolate all over his face but didn’t eat the cake? Really?

It will all come out in time. We’re just beating our way thru delaying tactics now.

 

[IEEEWreck]

@RamblinRed You're right there’s no smoking gun, but if we’re waiting for a videotape it will never materialize. You’re alleging we should consider the following as being circumstantial but not related:
a. Outbreak occurs in China
b. Outbreak occurs in Wuhan

My God! It was the geographers all along! Putting Chinese cities in China!

c. Outbreak occurs in close proximity to a newly commission bioweapons lab in Wuhan
d. The Wuhan lab had been reported to be concerning to international officials over lax security procedures
e. The Wuhan lab was working on coronavirus research and a variety of dangerous pathogens on how they go from animals to humans
f. The Wuhan lab was staffed with qualified yet inexperienced staff
g. Experienced labs have incidents, but an inexperienced lab does not

You could have collapsed all this down to "there was a viral research lab in Wuhan"

h. China destroyed samples needed to determine the virus origin
i. China has not permitted access by prominent international specialists to help investigate the origins
j. China has made numerous false representations, ie no human-human transmission, falsified numbers of deaths and cases, etc
k. China has threatened retaliation of other nations if they did not abide by China’s wishes
m. China makes up a story about how US soldiers came over and infected the Chinese in Wuhan.
n. All records and communications are being tightly controlled by the national political party officials

All of this equally supports any explanation that includes the fact that China is super embarrassed by how corrupt local party officials tried to hide the outbreak.

l. Key players in and associated with the Wuhan lab disappeared when communication they made went public

This seems highly questionable and at the very least excludes the key context that China is aggressively silencing ANYONE talking about the source of the virus, especially mentions of wet markets.

All this is just coincidental. Despite all of this mounting evidence we’ll just make up a story that fits a convenient narrative because we’re supposed to be Globalists? There’s absolutely zero evidence to suggest it came from anywhere besides the Wuhan lab other than a chinese expert that’s been told what to say says so and a few people affiliated with the lab and don’t want their research eliminated have said so as well. Your kid has chocolate all over his face but didn’t eat the cake? Really?

It will all come out in time. We’re just beating our way thru delaying tactics now.

Is it possible it's a coincidence that there's a virus research lab in the same place as the outbreak was first found? Yeah. Do you really think it's not? That's a little wild eyed, don't you think?

 

[MWBATL]

Is it possible it's a coincidence that there's a virus research lab in the same place as the outbreak was first found? Yeah. Do you really think it's not? That's a little wild eyed, don't you think?

Still waiting for ANY evidence that supports the wet market theory.

Why would you actually believe what China says about this?

As I said above
the bat that carries this virus

• was not ever sold in the wet market
• is not native to Hubei and lives 600 miles away
• WAS being studied in the virology labs near the wet market
• samples from animals taken from that wet market have not been shared with western scientists and (to my knowledge) no reports have bene published that certify that the virus originated in them. One would think if China had such evidence they would not only have published it but shared the raw data with the west.

 

[takethepoints]

Here's something interesting about the way the Georgia DPH has ben reporting COVID-19 stats:

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--reg...uses-critics-cry-foul/182PpUvUX9XEF8vO11NVGO/

I'm inclined to agree that there's nothing sinister about this; the DPH has been chronically understaffed for decades and the whole business of how to present data graphically has always been a challenge for public health pros. They should leave it to the statisticians/data scientists, but they don't. Still, given the screwups here, I'm going to the AJC dashboard from now on (https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/). They have someone on staff there who can do a half-decent job.

Now, if only someone would tell them that a gray scale graph shows up better on computer screens …

 

[IEEEWreck]

Still waiting for ANY evidence that supports the wet market theory.

Why would you actually believe what China says about this?

As I said above
the bat that carries this virus

• was not ever sold in the wet market
• is not native to Hubei and lives 600 miles away
• WAS being studied in the virology labs near the wet market
• samples from animals taken from that wet market have not been shared with western scientists and (to my knowledge) no reports have bene published that certify that the virus originated in them. One would think if China had such evidence they would not only have published it but shared the raw data with the west.

Are you affirming a disjunct?

In other words, what does that have to do with lab based theories?

 

[takethepoints]

@RamblinRed You're right there’s no smoking gun, but if we’re waiting for a videotape it will never materialize. You’re alleging we should consider the following as being circumstantial but not related:
a. Outbreak occurs in China
b. Outbreak occurs in Wuhan
c. Outbreak occurs in close proximity to a newly commission bioweapons lab in Wuhan
d. The Wuhan lab had been reported to be concerning to international officials over lax security procedures
e. The Wuhan lab was working on coronavirus research and a variety of dangerous pathogens on how they go from animals to humans
f. The Wuhan lab was staffed with qualified yet inexperienced staff
g. Experienced labs have incidents, but an inexperienced lab does not
h. China destroyed samples needed to determine the virus origin
i. China has not permitted access by prominent international specialists to help investigate the origins
j. China has made numerous false representations, ie no human-human transmission, falsified numbers of deaths and cases, etc
k. China has threatened retaliation of other nations if they did not abide by China’s wishes
l. Key players in and associated with the Wuhan lab disappeared when communication they made went public
m. China makes up a story about how US soldiers came over and infected the Chinese in Wuhan.
n. All records and communications are being tightly controlled by the national political party officials

All this is just coincidental. Despite all of this mounting evidence we’ll just make up a story that fits a convenient narrative because we’re supposed to be Globalists? There’s absolutely zero evidence to suggest it came from anywhere besides the Wuhan lab other than a chinese expert that’s been told what to say says so and a few people affiliated with the lab and don’t want their research eliminated have said so as well. Your kid has chocolate all over his face but didn’t eat the cake? Really?

It will all come out in time. We’re just beating our way thru delaying tactics now.

All this is a fine example of why we should all keep Hanlon's Razor in mind. That is:

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity

I'm pretty sure that the Chinese government has blundered multiple time in their treatment of the virus and the news they've put out about it (just like another government we know). I'm not convinced - there's simply no evidence for it but the string of vaguely connected coincidences cited above - that this was due to any bad intentions. But, like all governments, the PRC is reluctant to admit mistakes.

I'm shocked; shocked, I tell you!

 

[MWBATL]

Are you affirming a disjunct?

In other words, what does that have to do with lab based theories?

The lab based theory is simply this...that someone in that lab became infected by covid getting it from one of th beats there were experimenting with, and then went to the local wet market, and boom..spread from there. I don't know what you referring to, but the fact that it escaped from the lab is the theory that sits opposite the theory that it somehow came from the wet market.

 

[MWBATL]

All this is a fine example of why we should all keep Hanlon's Razor in mind. That is:

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity

I'm pretty sure that the Chinese government has blundered multiple time in their treatment of the virus and the news they've put out about it (just like another government we know). I'm not convinced - there's simply no evidence for it but the string of vaguely connected coincidences cited above - that this was due to any bad intentions. But, like all governments, the PRC is reluctant to admit mistakes.

I'm shocked; shocked, I tell you!

I would generally agree with you. My posts were in response to @RamblinRed's initial lengthy post that essentially said "it's not all China's fault". I completely agree with you that the vast majority of things are explained by incompetence, and the lab theory is absolutely based on incompetence. So, I am not sure if we are arguing here, or whether we are violent agreement! My one comment was that the "lab theory" is as reasonable as the "wet market" theory. And if it did escape from the local lab, then China is indeed "at fault".

 

[MWBATL]

I'm shocked; shocked, I tell you!

Visions of the Chief of Police in Casablanca again. Good one!

 

[GoldZ]

Weren't there a number of American scientists in the lab, as well as other international scientists? If so, wouldn't this do away with the lab did it theory?

 

[MWBATL]

Weren't there a number of American scientists in the lab, as well as other international scientists? If so, wouldn't this do away with the lab did it theory?

No, I don't think os. This is extracted form a report published by the right wing paragon, NBC News:

• A Jan. 24 study published in the medical journal The Lancet found that three of the first four cases — including the first known case — didn't provide a documented link to the Wuhan wet market.
• The bats that carry the family of coronaviruses linked to the new strain aren't found within 100 miles of Wuhan — but they were studied in both labs.
• Photos and videos have emerged of researchers at both labs collecting samples from bats without wearing protective gear, which experts say poses a risk of human infection.
• A U.S. State Department expert who visited the WIV in 2018 wrote in a cable reported by The Washington Post: "During interactions with scientists at the WIV laboratory, [U.S. diplomats] noted the new lab has a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory."
• According to Senate Intelligence Committee member Tom Cotton, R-Ark., the Chinese military posted its top epidemiologist to the WIV in January.
• The Shanghai laboratory where researchers published the world's first genome sequence of the coronavirus was shut down Jan. 12, according to The South China Morning Post.
• According to U.S. intelligence assessments, including one published by the Department of Homeland Security and reviewed by NBC News, the Chinese government initially covered up the severity of the outbreak. Government officials threatened doctors who warned their colleagues about the virus, weren't candid about human-to-human transmission and still haven't provided virus samples to researchers.

Here is the full report, in which they state that despite all of this most still don't believe the lab theory.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/na...ly-escape-chinese-lab-here-s-what-we-n1199531

Plus we already know that viruses have escaped from labs before in China

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-analysis/sars-escaped-beijing-lab-twice-50137

So, the presence of American scientists there does not preclude that a lab worker did not accidentally get the infection from one of the bats they were studying, and then went to the local market....

There is NO proof of the lab theory. But as nearly as I can tell there is also NO proof of the wet market theory.

But there are a ton of strange things that make you go "hmmmm..."
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...rms-unauthorised-labs-were-told-destroy-early

 

[takethepoints]

I would generally agree with you. My posts were in response to @RamblinRed's initial lengthy post that essentially said "it's not all China's fault". I completely agree with you that the vast majority of things are explained by incompetence, and the lab theory is absolutely based on incompetence. So, I am not sure if we are arguing here, or whether we are violent agreement! My one comment was that the "lab theory" is as reasonable as the "wet market" theory. And if it did escape from the local lab, then China is indeed "at fault".

Something similar - an initial government screw-up involving not wanting to admit a new disease had emerged in China - happened with SARS. The record there is enough to convince me that, doggone it, the Chinese did it again! But … we'll probably never know.

 

[MWBATL]

Something similar - an initial government screw-up involving not wanting to admit a new disease had emerged in China - happened with SARS. The record there is enough to convince me that, doggone it, the Chinese did it again! But … we'll probably never know.

I suspect you are correct. It is entirely easy to see how it might have gone down....local officials don't know or understand it at first...tell Beijing they have it under control...then they lose control...Beijing loses patience (iirc, they fired local leaders early in this whole process...so it seems most likely that the mistakes were at the local Wuhan level and less likely at the national level).

I just wish Amazon would put a "Made In ___" so I could choose something made elsewhere if I wanted to....

 

[LibertyTurns]

Something similar - an initial government screw-up involving not wanting to admit a new disease had emerged in China - happened with SARS. The record there is enough to convince me that, doggone it, the Chinese did it again! But … we'll probably never know.

It’s the most likely scenario, that’s all. I have no proof, just a bunch of damn coincidences that may be all purely coincidental.

I really don’t like human beings playing around with genetic mutations in the middle of an urban center- China, US, France, Canada, etc. I know research needs to be done but the risks given the best facility’s track records is not at an acceptable level. There’s remote locations where this type of research should be conducted and levels of personal scrutiny that needs to be enforced and neither is happening in any country.

 

[GoldZ]

No, I don't think os. This is extracted form a report published by the right wing paragon, NBC News:

• A Jan. 24 study published in the medical journal The Lancet found that three of the first four cases — including the first known case — didn't provide a documented link to the Wuhan wet market.
• The bats that carry the family of coronaviruses linked to the new strain aren't found within 100 miles of Wuhan — but they were studied in both labs.
• Photos and videos have emerged of researchers at both labs collecting samples from bats without wearing protective gear, which experts say poses a risk of human infection.
• A U.S. State Department expert who visited the WIV in 2018 wrote in a cable reported by The Washington Post: "During interactions with scientists at the WIV laboratory, [U.S. diplomats] noted the new lab has a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory."
• According to Senate Intelligence Committee member Tom Cotton, R-Ark., the Chinese military posted its top epidemiologist to the WIV in January.
• The Shanghai laboratory where researchers published the world's first genome sequence of the coronavirus was shut down Jan. 12, according to The South China Morning Post.
• According to U.S. intelligence assessments, including one published by the Department of Homeland Security and reviewed by NBC News, the Chinese government initially covered up the severity of the outbreak. Government officials threatened doctors who warned their colleagues about the virus, weren't candid about human-to-human transmission and still haven't provided virus samples to researchers.

Here is the full report, in which they state that despite all of this most still don't believe the lab theory.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/na...ly-escape-chinese-lab-here-s-what-we-n1199531

Plus we already know that viruses have escaped from labs before in China

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-analysis/sars-escaped-beijing-lab-twice-50137

So, the presence of American scientists there does not preclude that a lab worker did not accidentally get the infection from one of the bats they were studying, and then went to the local market....

There is NO proof of the lab theory. But as nearly as I can tell there is also NO proof of the wet market theory.

But there are a ton of strange things that make you go "hmmmm..."
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...rms-unauthorised-labs-were-told-destroy-early

Umm, I dunno MWB, the above does nothing for me in terms of the difficulty in hiding a major lab incident from American and other international scientists who worked in the lab. Something of this magnitude wouldn't have been swept under the proverbial rug in almost any office or organization that we all have worked in.

 

[takethepoints]

A few days ago, I posted a vid on the maths behind running down the virus. But I didn't mention the big takeaway for me: pandemics are an externality. It is a lot like emissions from cars. In the old days we had a lot of people - pretty much the same ones as are at risk from COVID-19 - who died every year from pollution from cars without catalytic converters. We also had a lot of youngsters who suffered damage to their brains from emissions from cars using leaded gas (paint too). The normal way you might take care of this would be to pay the people causing the pollution to stop it. Problem = this was an externality; i.e. it was the result of an activity that created effects that were incidental to use of the goods and that no one had any individual or corporate interest in stopping. Consequently, no market existed to make payments, even if we could have gotten people to set a price for it. Which we could not because … freedom.

So what we did is the same thing we've been doing in this situation: we got the government to sanction behavior that was creating the problem. We required catalytic converters on cars and, since a thriving business in disabling them sprung up, made it a crime to remove or disable them. Then we passed a set of laws that required use of unleaded gas in cars and set pollution limits for states and localities. Result: a lot fewer vulnerable people died and we saw a perceptible change in behavior resulting for banning lead in gas and paint.

That was easy in comparison, however. All we had to do is go to car and gas producers and the mechanics and say, "Stop it!" Changes in behavior by individuals hardly entered into it. Now we find ourselves having to require behavior in the entire population to combat the virus. And, as before, there is no market where we can go to pay people to act responsibility, even if they were willing to take a price to do so. Soooooo … we issue orders to control the behaviors spreading the disease, more or less depending on how far governments are willing to go to do it. And we get a lot of people who are just like the folks who went to the mechanics to get the catalytic converters removed: "Why should my car all of a sudden be deprived of 20% of its power, just because of some exhaust fumes? Why should I be singled out? My car doesn't produce much exhaust! I bought it to go fast! Besides … FREEDOM!"

The economic costs of this are higher too. That's why we need to continue to offer a set price to deter dangerous behavior and to limit economic damage to the extent possible. Other then that it's pretty much the same; an external effect that we have to meet outside of market mechanisms.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Trump said today he’s taking hydroxychloroquine, because “he’s heard a lot of good things about it.” I mean ...

Our state rep from Aiken filed a bill today to enable people to refuse taking a future vaccine. I mean ...

 

[slugboy]

US News & World Report isn't a shadow of what it used to be, but there's an older story about the origins being outside of Wuhan: https://www.usnews.com/news/best-co...gests-coronavirus-originated-outside-of-Wuhan.

There are two related papers, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Forster is known for mapping out genetic lineages and is apparently responsible for some of the more common methods and software used for that purpose.
https://www.pnas.org/content/117/17/9241
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/06/2007076117

I don't know the origin, but I think it will be a while before we track down the origins, if we ever do.