gtbeak
Ramblin' Wreck
- Messages
- 529
Red,
When trying to assess how the virus is trending in the state, you CANNOT use the date that a case or death is reported. That would be akin to investigating a murder by focusing on when the body is found and ignoring the evidence that shows when the crime was actually committed. As has been discussed quite a bit regarding this virus, we really don't know the results of our actions until 2 to 3 weeks after an action is taken.
Presenting the data as the Ga DPH is presenting it does depend on the reader being able to read the footnotes. I will point out that, in this case, the footnotes are not in any way buried, they are quite clearly presented. The 14 day "uncertain" period is even shaded differently and the lines connecting datapoints is omitted in the "uncertain" period within two weeks of the present date.
I would add a third possibility to your thoughts on their website which would be that they are presenting the data as accurately as possible and depending on the data scientists who look at the data being able to read. This doesn't reflect well on the data scientists in our state.
Red, I agree that Clay Travis is mis-using this data, but that is nothing new for him as I understand it (I don't often read his stuff). However, the data that is presented in the Ga DPH website with the footnotes is as accurate as is possible.Your comments are true. Data scientists have been very frustrated with how GA is reporting data and constantly changing definitions.
FWIW, as I showed in an earlier message deaths haven't really declined. They are stable, which is a start.
This footnote to the graph Travis tweeted shows why it isn't accurate. Basically as tests come back positive they are backdated so the most recent 2 weeks is always understated in their graph.
They also changed the definitions on their statewide GA map last week of what numbers you had to hit to have darker blue and red shadings to make it look like less counties were having issues.
* 14-day window – Confirmed cases over the last 14 days may not be accounted for due to illnesses yet to be reported or test results may still be pending.
What is happening on their website right now can be caused by one of 2 things. Either the people running and updating the website are incompetent or they are purposely trying to play with the numbers to make them look better than they actually are. Neither is a particuarly comforting thought.
When trying to assess how the virus is trending in the state, you CANNOT use the date that a case or death is reported. That would be akin to investigating a murder by focusing on when the body is found and ignoring the evidence that shows when the crime was actually committed. As has been discussed quite a bit regarding this virus, we really don't know the results of our actions until 2 to 3 weeks after an action is taken.
Presenting the data as the Ga DPH is presenting it does depend on the reader being able to read the footnotes. I will point out that, in this case, the footnotes are not in any way buried, they are quite clearly presented. The 14 day "uncertain" period is even shaded differently and the lines connecting datapoints is omitted in the "uncertain" period within two weeks of the present date.
I would add a third possibility to your thoughts on their website which would be that they are presenting the data as accurately as possible and depending on the data scientists who look at the data being able to read. This doesn't reflect well on the data scientists in our state.