Coronavirus Thread

[takethepoints]

Yep, the Nate Silver that used to blog for The Daily Kos and The New York Times, and who admittedly votes for Democrats the majority of the time. He’s right down the middle.

He is on the stats. They don't have an ideological tilt when they are interpreted correctly. And Silver usually does that. Occasionally, he listens too much to the echo chamber (he admits he did in 2016), but not often.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Weekly update of an exercise I do for myself but I added two columns to the right.

Oops, I didn't update column headers for (2) and (3) and (4). This is data from 5/7 and 5/14, not 4/30 and 5/7. Rest is correct.

Looks like the excess weekly deaths (column 7 or 8) may have peaked week of March 2nd. And cumulative number of excess deaths through week of May 2nd (column 9) will end up at about 120,000. I'm skeptical about the sharpness of the falloff for the week of May 2nd, but that doesn't matter as I'll update next week

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Week-Ending-D/r8kw-7aab

 

[MWBATL]

You also find out that citizens (and even the governments) of other countries have very low opinions of the US Government right now. There was an article out of Australia last week talking about how all the Five Eyes intelligence agencies believe the US is pushing a false theory in terms of the origins of the virus. That the governments in Australia and Great Britian flat out don't believe the US. A poll released today in Australia asking about how they feel about various governments and how they handled the crisis so far gave very high marks to Australia (which they should, without a doubt one of the best) with 93% saying their Government did a very or fairly good job. The US came in last in the survey with 10% saying the US Government has done very (2%) or fairly (8%) well in its fight against the virus.

Just to point out a couple of things that some might consider added context which might call into question the facts that you mention, there are two things I would point out...:

• The Five Eyes report you reference is being reported in many different ways by different media, to wit:

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/c...m/news-story/55add857058731c9c71c0e96ad17da60

My take on it is that it mirrors official lines BUT that it also raises substantial questions about China's handling of this matter initially and certainly questions the wet-market theory. As is sometimes the case when you mention these matters...there is more to the story. I would also disagree with your assessment that the UK don't believe the US opinion that the virus originated in the lab in Wuhan.

https://www.businessinsider.com/bor...us-may-leaked-chinese-laboratory-covid-2020-4

i would agree that the UK media and the BBC don't agree with Trump (on just about anything), but to state it as you did is, imho, incomplete

• the poll you mentioned just *might* be a bit skewed. It was taken with a sample size of fewer than 4,000 people, and of those, about 75% favor Biden in the upcoming US election. It is not a stretch to suggest those folks have a different skew in their view of matters than many in this country have.

To be complete, I should mention that the organization that conducted the polling is not considered to be left wing...if anything some consider it to be skewed slightly right. But, it shouldn't surprise anyone that if so many people are Biden supporters (or Trump haters, take your pick) that the poll's results about covid would look that way.
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On a related topic, Australia has conducted perhaps the most extensive study on covid in elementary schools here:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...us-super-spreaders-australian-study-1.4923748

This would call into question all those who claim that US schools should not re-open until we have a vaccine or cure for covid-19. This would seem to be corroborated by a French study:

https://www.france24.com/en/20200420-french-case-raises-questions-over-coronavirus-child-spread

My primary objection to anyone who uses CNN as a news source is the fact that ...a once reliable and proud news group...has now seemed to slip into opinion journalism. Here is their recent story on covers and schools, which fails to even mention the Australian and French studies:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/06/heal...coronavirus-children-wellness-intl/index.html

It is this lack of context and full reporting of news, even news that might disagree with the stand they wish to push, which is what has earned them the moniker of Fake News in recent years. Sad to see, really...

 

[MWBATL]

Yeah, the devil in the details. I can assure you that I wasn't talking about April style shutdowns for 6 months and I'm gonna go out a limb to guess you aren't talking about 6 days.

You are correct.....I wouldn't support 6 days.

I generally think that what is happening in Georgia is probably a decent approach. testing seems to be readily available now. I wanted an employee tested and he got tested the very day we asked him to do so. That's a positive step. (The arguments going on in DC about how testing isn't available baffle me, tbh.) I think keeping bars, nightclubs and other venues like that closed a bit longer is likely a good idea. Restaurants and other businesses being open with social distancing guidelines I think also is fine. Asking people to wear masks in environments where you are in an enclosed space or cannot keep social distancing is also wise.

So far, we haven't seen a jump in Georgiaa's covid problem, and it has not been about 3 weeks. So, I suspect the next 3-4 weeks will be very telling in guiding us forward.

I do think some states are going way overboard. Locations that argue for closures until a vaccine or cure is found are the ones I disagree with.

So far, 36 million Americans have paid with their jobs and 85,000 Americans have paid with their lives. Each among us will have ot decide how to balance those risks as we go forward. Each is entitled to their own opinion (and to disagree with mine).

 

[LibertyTurns]

Weekly update of an exercise I do for myself but I added two columns to the right.

Oops, I didn't update column headers for (2) and (3) and (4). This is data from 5/7 and 5/14, not 4/30 and 5/7. Rest is correct.

Looks like the excess weekly deaths (column 7 or 8) may have peaked week of March 2nd. And cumulative number of excess deaths through week of May 2nd (column 9) will end up at about 120,000. I'm skeptical about the sharpness of the falloff for the week of May 2nd, but that doesn't matter as I'll update next week

View attachment 8314

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Week-Ending-D/r8kw-7aab

You might want to review the “expected deaths” history. I found that info interesting until I realized Florida exceeded the expected deaths every month/year by a wide margin for the last 10 years. Checked some other states and found the same phenomenon. You can’t be above average for every single month and every single year for 10 straight years unless the number you’re using for an average is no good.

 

[MWBATL]

And heeeeere's Aaron! See:

https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/lessons-from-singapore-and-reopening-the-united-states/

Short Aaron: think big. As big as the problem. I think a reactivation/increase of the surveillance network he mentions is the most likely to be useful. Too many Americans won't go along with even a German level of testing.

It might also be a good idea to learn form the AIDS epidemic. See:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/a...gue-real-and-shaming-people-wont-help/611482/

I'm inclined to agree with most of this.

That article in the Atlantic was a great article. I am also inclined to agree with most of it. Thanks for posting it as I likely would have never seen it otherwise!

 

[GTNavyNuke]

You might want to review the “expected deaths” history. I found that info interesting until I realized Florida exceeded the expected deaths every month/year by a wide margin for the last 10 years. Checked some other states and found the same phenomenon. You can’t be above average for every single month and every single year for 10 straight years unless the number you’re using for an average is no good.

That's someone else's homework.

 

[MWBATL]

I found this article to be a pretty good summary of some of the back and forth on re-opening. It is an op-ed piece, so there's not much in way of facts and news contained, and it is from the WSJ so it leans right, but it still gives an opinion on why there is a divide on how ot move forward that resonated with me and maybe will help explain some things to even those on the far left. At any rate, I am posting it with that in mind as informational ...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/scenes...in-lockdown-11589498276?mod=opinion_lead_pos8

PS-in case this article is behind a paywall, hit's thrust is that the folk making decisions are not the folks being impacted, and this disconnect is hurting our collective response. Here's a sample:

They’re more fatalistic about life because life has taught them to be fatalistic. And they look at these scientists and reporters making their warnings about how tough it’s going to be if we lift shutdowns and they don’t think, “Oh what informed, caring observers.” They think, “You have no idea what tough is. You don’t know what painful is.” And if you don’t know, why should you have so much say?

The overclass says, “Wait three months before we’re safe.” They reply, “There’s no such thing as safe.”

 

[bobongo]

Ramblin has a history of posting 2000 word essays with his own left/liberal agenda but he mentions 12 times within his rants about how he’s being non biased and just calling it like it is. He writes well and puts his thoughts down so well that a lot of people with no clue love it “Way to go Red”, “Red killin it!!”. He’s been preaching his agenda for 2 months now, most of us don’t pay it any attention. He’s in multiple forums saying the same things over and over.

Or, maybe an unbiased and thoughtful approach led him to conclusions that are not your own.
Just because somebody comes down on one side or the other on a particular issue doesn't necessarily mean they're biased to begin with. Maybe an honest appraisal led them to that conclusion. Having an alternative perspective doesn't equal bias.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

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On a related topic, Australia has conducted perhaps the most extensive study on covid in elementary schools here:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...us-super-spreaders-australian-study-1.4923748

This reply isn't directed at you, its just a logical place to reply in. If we beef up 'security' around nursing homes and help protect the elderly and other vulnerable (we know to a percentage of multiple 9s who they are), then we shouldn't be any more scared of carefully opening things back up then we would be during a flu epidemic. Social distance, wear masks, wash hands often. Nobody wants to be laid up with a flu-like illness for a week, but we know the odds of severe health outcomes outside of that vulnerable population is very close to zero. Given that, we shouldn't be scare of seeing more cases as we open up - we should be watching the hospitalization rate.

And heading off on another tangent, someone did a study where they tested a bunch of people for COVID-19 using the traditional test, then they used Abbott Labs new quick response test. The quick response test missed 40% of the positive cases. Recall the story of the NBC News Dr. Fair who was tested 4 different times while in the hospital and all 4 came back negative. My wife spoke to one of her friends who is also a nurse - neither hospital they both work at has a single COVID-19 case right now. That other nurse said they get so many negative test results that they just ignore it if the symptoms match COVID-19 and treat it assuming the tests are wrong. So its just another data point that we have to be careful overstating what value tests and test volumes actually have in the first place.

 

[bobongo]

I really don’t give a damn what these other countries opinions of us are. We pull way more than our own weight, and we’ve saved many of their asses before.

Also, that cafe didn’t make the people wear those pool noodles. It was something set up by a local TV crew to see what the reaction would be.

We have saved a few asses, but it serves us poorly to eschew input from the world at large. Being a nation of immigrants, it's what made us great to begin with.

 

[684Bee]

We have saved a few asses, but it serves us poorly to eschew input from the world at large. Being a nation of immigrants, it's what made us great to begin with.

Yes, our ancestors came from somewhere else...because they were escaping tyranny, famine, abject poverty, etc to come make a life in a better situation, because the laws, culture, and principle values of America allows for that.

 

[684Bee]

This reply isn't directed at you, its just a logical place to reply in. If we beef up 'security' around nursing homes and help protect the elderly and other vulnerable (we know to a percentage of multiple 9s who they are), then we shouldn't be any more scared of carefully opening things back up then we would be during a flu epidemic. Social distance, wear masks, wash hands often. Nobody wants to be laid up with a flu-like illness for a week, but we know the odds of severe health outcomes outside of that vulnerable population is very close to zero. Given that, we shouldn't be scare of seeing more cases as we open up - we should be watching the hospitalization rate.

And heading off on another tangent, someone did a study where they tested a bunch of people for COVID-19 using the traditional test, then they used Abbott Labs new quick response test. The quick response test missed 40% of the positive cases. Recall the story of the NBC News Dr. Fair who was tested 4 different times while in the hospital and all 4 came back negative. My wife spoke to one of her friends who is also a nurse - neither hospital they both work at has a single COVID-19 case right now. That other nurse said they get so many negative test results that they just ignore it if the symptoms match COVID-19 and treat it assuming the tests are wrong. So its just another data point that we have to be careful overstating what value tests and test volumes actually have in the first place.

Your last part is a big deal. The accuracy of the tests we’ve been using is critical. These tests are the basis for all the numbers we’ve been using and basing decisions on. How confident can we be in those numbers?

As you stated, in lieu of tests, we’ve been diagnosing off of symptoms, which I believe are: fever, cough, body aches, etc. How many other viruses cause those exact same symptoms?

 

[armeck]

Yes, our ancestors came from somewhere else...because they were escaping tyranny, famine, abject poverty, etc to come make a life in a better situation, because the laws, culture, and principle values of America allows for that.

Sort of. Don't forget that roughly 1 out of every 10 American's ancestors (~12%) were enslaved and forcibly immigrated.

 

[GoldZ]

My primary objection to anyone who uses CNN as a news source is the fact that ...a once reliable and proud news group...has now seemed to slip into opinion journalism. Here is their recent story on covers and schools, which fails to even mention the Australian and French studies:

This is sooo true. Not to mention....dangerous. Although far from perfect, BBC and Reuters are less inclined to tell ya what you should think. Perfect would be a Martian network who could give a rat's arse about Dems and Pubs etc.etc., and who blandly ala Joe Friday style, delivered: just the facts Mam.
To be complete, FOX, NBC, CBS, & ABC aren't much better, but alas, everything is relative and CNN takes the cake hands down.

 

[armeck]

This is sooo true. Not to mention....dangerous. Although far from perfect, BBC and Reuters are less inclined to tell ya what you should think. Perfect would be a Martian network who could give a rat's arse about Dems and Pubs etc.etc., and who blandly ala Joe Friday style, delivered: just the facts Mam.
To be complete, FOX, NBC, CBS, & ABC aren't much better, but alas, everything is relative and CNN takes the cake hands down.

I know a lot of conservatives have a knee jerk reaction to anything PBS (not saying you, just in general), but PBS News Hour is exactly what you describe with the bland, just the facts, news show.

 

[bobongo]

Yes, our ancestors came from somewhere else...because they were escaping tyranny, famine, abject poverty, etc to come make a life in a better situation, because the laws, culture, and principle values of America allows for that.

They came here for opportunity, and they made good on it. It doesn't serve their descendants to become smug about our success and forget where we came from. I can't think of a better example of the need to recognize the need to work together than a pandemic. They need us, and we need them, too. We are not well served to think we can best go it alone.

 

[684Bee]

They came here for opportunity, and they made good on it. It doesn't serve their descendants to become smug about our success and forget where we came from. I can't think of a better example of the need to recognize the need to work together than a pandemic. They need us, and we need them, too. We are not well served to think we can best go it alone.

It’s smug to recognize why they were able to make good on it here, versus not being able to where they came from?

 

[RamblinRed]

FWIW, here is a good article talking about a new Univ of Chicago study looking at people making more money on unemployment than if they worked.
This is one issue that will have to be fixed when they work on the next version.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-unemployment-than-they-were-from-their-jobs/

 

[takethepoints]

Some of you might be interested in an example of how contact tracing works. See:



This is the great FRONTLINE "The Lost Children of Rockdale County". It'a about the STD outbreak there in the late 90s and how the public health department tracked down the network that led to it. Then it looks at causes.

It is also just about the most devastating portrayal of a community in TV history. The cultural and emotional wasteland that drove the young people to this kind of reckless behavior is heart-wrenching to watch. The only thing worse is the way the parents frantically turn to any kind of authority - school, government, church - to provide the meaning in their children's lives that they have so conspicuously failed to do.

Well … the blurb from whoever posted this at YOUTUBE is worse. It's of a piece with what you see from the parents: "The kids did this because of bad examples and no GAWD in school! It wasn't us! It CAIN"T be us!" But, of course, it is all on them.