Coronavirus Thread

[684Bee]

When Georgia governor announced 'reopening' the state over 3 weeks ago... he was hit with a lot of criticism. How's that decision looking now? ...was the criticism justified now that you've seen things play out to date?

Nope. FL governor was mocked, too.

 

[bobongo]

When Georgia governor announced 'reopening' the state over 3 weeks ago... he was hit with a lot of criticism. How's that decision looking now? ...was the criticism justified now that you've seen things play out to date?

Too soon to tell. And the re-opening only began, gradually, three weeks ago. Much of the re-opening occurred on Monday, 4 days ago. If numbers continue to fall it will mainly be because of the warmer weather. Maybe we'll all get lucky.

 

[FredJacket]

Too soon to tell. And the re-opening only began, gradually, three weeks ago. Much of the re-opening occurred on Monday, 4 days ago. If numbers continue to fall it will mainly be because of the warmer weather. Maybe we'll all get lucky.

Don't discount possibility everyone has been generally responsible too. ...not to take away from the weather & good luck factors... & the reopening of 3 plus weeks ago being a different kind of reopening than some other kind.

 

[awbuzz]

Too soon to tell. And the re-opening only began, gradually, three weeks ago. Much of the re-opening occurred on Monday, 4 days ago. If numbers continue to fall it will mainly be because of the warmer weather. Maybe we'll all get lucky.

So are you saying that if we all get battery-operated hair dryers and keep them blowing in our face that we will not get the virus? I mean that would be like having warm weather all the time...

 

[GCdaJuiceMan]

Don't discount possibility everyone has been generally responsible too. ...not to take away from the weather & good luck factors... & the reopening of 3 plus weeks ago being a different kind of reopening than some other kind.

I’m optimistic about the majority of people being generally not stupid. Also, I think the numbers to focus on are hospitalizations and ultimately deaths. Those take longer to become an unfortunate statistic. Hopefully the current trend stays true.

 

[bobongo]

So are you saying that if we all get battery-operated hair dryers and keep them blowing in our face that we will not get the virus? I mean that would be like having warm weather all the time...

I hadn't thought of that. You should send that idea to Washington, D.C.

Here's an even better idea out of Washington just today:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucel...-few-cases-here-is-the-reaction/#193f3de6518c

"If we didn’t do any testing, we would have very few cases.” - The President

 

[FredJacket]

I hadn't thought of that. You should send that idea to Washington, D.C.

Here's an even better idea out of Washington just today:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucel...-few-cases-here-is-the-reaction/#193f3de6518c

"If we didn’t do any testing, we would have very few cases.” - The President

Not sure you got the quote exactly right... but close enough... & that was a good one.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Too soon to tell. And the re-opening only began, gradually, three weeks ago. Much of the re-opening occurred on Monday, 4 days ago. If numbers continue to fall it will mainly be because of the warmer weather. Maybe we'll all get lucky.

Ahhh, a typical fall-back factor in case things do go well and put your whole argument to rest. Clever. LOL

 

[MWBATL]

For all those who seem to think there is some sort of scientific consensus and no dissenting scientific view son covid-19, I suggest the following read:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-lo...dnt-silence-11589566245?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

You won't find it on any MSM sites. It is heretical to their orthodoxy.

Again, in case this is behind a paywall, I'll cite one of the interesting discussions on Sweden:

Mr. Ginn has been closely following Sweden, which has kept children under 16 in school and let most businesses stay open while restricting gatherings of more than 50 people. His daily briefings frequently cite Sweden’s state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, who has argued that government lockdowns lack a “scientific basis” and “people should be able to keep a reasonably normal life.” Dr. Tegnell recently estimated that 40% of Stockholm’s population would be immune to the virus by the end of May.

That could bring Sweden closer to “herd immunity” than countries that have sought to suppress spread altogether. “We need to ‘segment and shield,’ ” Mr. Ginn says, “and let the epidemic go through”: “The question is: How are you going to best protect those that are vulnerable in the larger population?”

Some scientists say herd immunity would require 60% to 70% of the population to be infected, which would entail massive deaths. Mr. Ginn says those numbers are up for debate. A recent study from a large team of international researchers including some at Oxford and the National Institutes of Health (which hasn’t undergone peer review) estimates that “variation in susceptibility or exposure to infection can reduce these estimates” so that some populations may achieve herd immunity with an infection rate of only 10% to 20%.

A paper last week by Stockholm University mathematicians estimates herd immunity could be around 43% if young, socially active people mix more and gain immunity, protecting older, less socially active people. In other words, Stockholm may have already achieved herd immunity. Dr. Tegnell said this week that the declining number of cases in Stockholm supports this possibility.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

For all those who seem to think there is some sort of scientific consensus and no dissenting scientific view son covid-19, I suggest the following read:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-lo...dnt-silence-11589566245?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

You won't find it on any MSM sites. It is heretical to their orthodoxy.

Again, in case this is behind a paywall, I'll cite one of the interesting discussions on Sweden:

Mr. Ginn has been closely following Sweden, which has kept children under 16 in school and let most businesses stay open while restricting gatherings of more than 50 people. His daily briefings frequently cite Sweden’s state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, who has argued that government lockdowns lack a “scientific basis” and “people should be able to keep a reasonably normal life.” Dr. Tegnell recently estimated that 40% of Stockholm’s population would be immune to the virus by the end of May.

That could bring Sweden closer to “herd immunity” than countries that have sought to suppress spread altogether. “We need to ‘segment and shield,’ ” Mr. Ginn says, “and let the epidemic go through”: “The question is: How are you going to best protect those that are vulnerable in the larger population?”

Some scientists say herd immunity would require 60% to 70% of the population to be infected, which would entail massive deaths. Mr. Ginn says those numbers are up for debate. A recent study from a large team of international researchers including some at Oxford and the National Institutes of Health (which hasn’t undergone peer review) estimates that “variation in susceptibility or exposure to infection can reduce these estimates” so that some populations may achieve herd immunity with an infection rate of only 10% to 20%.

A paper last week by Stockholm University mathematicians estimates herd immunity could be around 43% if young, socially active people mix more and gain immunity, protecting older, less socially active people. In other words, Stockholm may have already achieved herd immunity. Dr. Tegnell said this week that the declining number of cases in Stockholm supports this possibility.

This is a scientifically valid approach. However, there are 2 main flaws with this article:
1) Sweden cannot be said to have stayed open - until we see where they end up when all this is done. Step by step they have slowly done whatever one else did. You could make the argument that their approach is akin to a “you should do what most other countries are doing, but we’re not going to enforce anything and it’s up to you.”
2) Notice they said “declining cases in Stockholm”. What if we said we should follow the New York model and point to declining cases right now to back it up? Sweden’s case volume as a country have not dropped at all - they have continued on at the same weekly average for months.

 

[GoldZ]

Sweden's economic hits don't seem to justify their death rates......so far. Wasn't the claim to their semi-let er rip strategy, to not suffer through the economic losses of other countries? After the game and the armchair coaching dies down, it seems to me that it will come down to how fast a therapeutic and/or vaccine is available when it comes to judging their strategy. Right now during the game, they are behind by a couple of touchdowns, but as far as treatments/vaccines are concerned, the other team has momentum, unfortunately. I say unfortunately because it's too late to change the game plan for most.

 

[MWBATL]

This is a scientifically valid approach. However, there are 2 main flaws with this article:
1) Sweden cannot be said to have stayed open - until we see where they end up when all this is done. Step by step they have slowly done whatever one else did. You could make the argument that their approach is akin to a “you should do what most other countries are doing, but we’re not going to enforce anything and it’s up to you.”
2) Notice they said “declining cases in Stockholm”. What if we said we should follow the New York model and point to declining cases right now to back it up? Sweden’s case volume as a country have not dropped at all - they have continued on at the same weekly average for months.

Good points and thank you for raising them....I am all in favor of looking at all aspects...

But, Sweden never closed their schools, for example (for children under 16). Something that would get you crucified here in the US.

 

[MWBATL]

Sweden's economic hits don't seem to justify their death rates......so far. Wasn't the claim to their semi-let er rip strategy, to not suffer through the economic losses of other countries? After the game and the armchair coaching dies down, it seems to me that it will come down to how fast a therapeutic and/or vaccine is available when it comes to judging their strategy. Right now during the game, they are behind by a couple of touchdowns, but as far as treatments/vaccines are concerned, the other team has momentum, unfortunately. I say unfortunately because it's too late to change the game plan for most.

I am no expert on what Sweden did, but my understanding after reading that article was that it was a combination of factors...involving personal liberty, a plan to achieve herd immunity instead of avoidance so that the total death rate could actually wind up lower in the long run, and some reduction on economic loss. But I think the herd immunity was their primary objective. Given that herd immunity is playing the long game, my guess is we won't know for a year whether their strategy was better than others or not....

 

[Milwaukee]

 

[bobongo]

Ahhh, a typical fall-back factor in case things do go well and put your whole argument to rest. Clever. LOL

No, it's just a fact, and I've said it all along. If the warm weather does kill off much of the virus during summer, there's no reason not to open up. Problem is, we just don't know that yet. We'll find out soon how much effect the weather has on this thing.

It's quite possible that what we will have is a tug of war between opening up and warmer weather. Opening up will cause an upward push on cases while warmer weather will exert a downward push.

 

[MWBATL]

No, it's just a fact, and I've said it all along. If the warm weather does kill off much of the virus during summer, there's no reason not to open up. Problem is, we just don't know that yet. We'll find out soon how much effect the weather has on this thing.

It's quite possible that what we will have is a tug of war between opening up and warmer weather. Opening up will cause an upward push on cases while warmer weather will exert a downward push.

But you cannot dispute that three weeks ago, liberal media was roasting Kemp nationally as an idiot who did not follow...you know, science!

What would we do without experts? [sigh]

 

[684Bee]

But you cannot dispute that three weeks ago, liberal media was roasting Kemp nationally as an idiot who did not follow...you know, science!

What would we do without experts? [sigh]

While lauding Cuomo.

 

[bobongo]

But you cannot dispute that three weeks ago, liberal media was roasting Kemp nationally as an idiot who did not follow...you know, science!

What would we do without experts? [sigh]

Science says increased interaction leads to more infection. Science also says that in many cases, viruses temporarily dissipate during summer. The jury is out on whether the weather will have the same effect on this coronavirus.

 

[slugboy]

Don't discount possibility everyone has been generally responsible too. ...not to take away from the weather & good luck factors... & the reopening of 3 plus weeks ago being a different kind of reopening than some other kind.

There was also a spectrum of criticism. Some were critical of any reopening. Some thought the restrictions Kemp lifted first were strange, like having nail salons and spas and gyms in the first wave of openings, instead of towards the end. I thought his plans were vague and poorly communicated—the press releases were a few paragraphs—it would have made sense to link to a comprehensive plan. In the reopenings, the schools have stayed closed but a lot of the parents have to be out of the house—that may have been thought through, but I have no idea what their thoughts were.
I’m not sure how much of where we are is voluntary behavior. We shop less frequently, and I know a lot of people who haven’t gone back to the gyms.
One comparison I’ve heard is “most drunk drivers make it home safely”. The outcome doesn’t always justify the decision.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Science says increased interaction leads to more infection. Science also says that in many cases, viruses temporarily dissipate during summer. The jury is out on whether the weather will have the same effect on this coronavirus.

Science says that not wearing masks, close personal contact, and not using good hygiene leads to more infection. ...not increased interaction, unless maybe that’s what you were implying.