Coronavirus Thread

[Deleted member 2897]

I’ll just speak up for the CDC employees that I know after working closely with the agency for 10 years. They aren’t incompetent. They aren’t political warriors. Alot of them are very astute and intelligent individuals who are doing the best they can do with what they have. Nobody here is going to see 99% of the work they do. Most of them could make considerably more money in the private sector yet choose not to because they feel the work they are doing is making a difference. Some of them are working 10 hour days right now and weekends. I’m sure it’s convenient to deride them because it helps your nonsense political arguments but they aren’t the demons or morons that you guys seem to think they are.

It’s just like the FBI and everywhere else. The leadership is typically the big problem. I am not sure anybody on here has been insulting people who work at the level of your friend, so I’m not sure why you think so. If your friend is at the top brass level, then they are the problem, and we have given numerous substantive examples for why...but I’m guessing that’s not the case. When the CDC almost literally has one job, and it fails miserably at it, that’s not a nonsense political argument - that’s a material factual illustration of leadership incompetence and dysfunction.

 

[LibertyTurns]

They did with this one. See: Michael Lewis. 2018. The Fifth Risk. New York: Norton. Everyone should read this book.

Btw, the fifth risk is the one you run when you think only in terms of short run problems. The last sentence in the book: "It's what you fail to imagine that kills you." As we are now finding out.

The problem is the Federal Government is riddled with people all over the place with disaster scenarios & they spend decades wringing hands and clamoring for billions/trillions to counteract. You name it Nuclear War- China, Russia, etc, Russia invades Europe, Global Warming floods all the major cities, Oil Shocks, Pandemics, Famines, WW III, Solar Activity knocks out the entire earth’s electrical grid, etc. You can only provide a safety net for so much. Also, people get tired of hearing the same BS year in, year out. Finally the outrageous projection (the once a decade or century deal) comes true and every clown with an opinion comes out of the woodwork saying “see I told you so”.

 

[MWBATL]

In a national health crisis, the authorities will, of course, keep as much hospital capacity in reserve as possible. Thinking that you are out of the woods because you aren't in a New York style public disaster is … well, really stupid. That some hospitals in areas with low caseloads aren't at full capacity is a good thing, not an outrage. We might need them going forward (like in a couple of weeks).

Maybe I was wrong about you and Dunning-Kruger effects.

It's hardy stupid. What is stupid is whining about or screaming about needing g ventilators, then winding up with thousands of unused ventilators sitting in warehouses unused and unneeded. It is a massive waste of resources that could have best been used elsewhere and it perpetuates needlessly the panic that....well, stupid people feel. (Not you, of course)

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I keep hearing news reports that Germany and South Korea are both trying to contain new outbreaks after starting to open back up their economies. Here is what the data shows. How can the news report such nonsense?

Germany:

South Korea:

 

[Milwaukee]

 

[Milwaukee]

 

[takethepoints]

The MAJORITY of workers in federal agencies have been there for years and did not change with this administration any more than they did when Obama first took office.

Let's suppose that you have a business that has been successful for years in the mail order business and has a chain of national stores. It come under attack from outside "investors" who buy the company out. They install one of their own as president and he decides he's going to "disrupt" things so that the business will become more efficient or something. He decides - with, mind, no experience at all in mail order or retail business - that the best way to do this would be to set the different branches of the business in competition with each other because … markets or something. The direction of the business becomes unbalanced and getting cooperation for corporate goals becomes impossible. The new president doubles down: he'll see the parts of the business that are beginning to fail under the new plan because … stock prices or something. And finally the whole business collapses, taking down with it a substantial workforce with expertise that made the original corporation profitable. And the new president gets a golden parachute and quits as the ship goes under, despite having a majority of employees who knew what they were doing and were carrying on pretty well until the upper levels of management went stark, raving crazy.

That's what happened to Sears. It's what Trump and co. have done to many, many federal programs that were working just fine and now can hardly find an independent direction based on expertise without facing substantial pushback from political appointees. It's all there in Lewis's book. Read it and see.

 

[Techster]

It's hardy stupid. What is stupid is whining about or screaming about needing g ventilators, then winding up with thousands of unused ventilators sitting in warehouses unused and unneeded. It is a massive waste of resources that could have best been used elsewhere and it perpetuates needlessly the panic that....well, stupid people feel. (Not you, of course)

It would be interesting to see statistics of hospital visits/ventilator use before the shelter in place orders versus their use after the order. I'm currently trying to find the article where it points out that if you take out the hot spots for the Covid 19 infections that instituted shelter in place a month ago, the US infection and hospitalization curve is actually increasing. Early on in the spread, the denser cities (New York, New Orleans, Detroit, etc) made up the vast majority of the infections in the US, now it's starting to tilt to the rural areas of the country. Remember, big cities like New York and New Orleans enacted tougher social distancing rules as the outbreak began. Those cities are seeing the benefits of shelter in place and more stringent social distancing rules in the form of a declining curve. IMO, there's a false sense of security because the numbers were so tilted in the early stages of the virus to larger cities...and a month after those cities placed social distancing and shelter in place rules, the curve is starting to come down for the US overall.

https://www.usnews.com/news/healthi...deaths-growing-at-faster-rates-in-rural-areas

I've said this many times. There are no easy answers here. You have to balance the safety of the people on one end, and on the other end you have the economy and people's jobs. Unfortunately, the virus makes it impossible to for those two to co-exist. How do you tell a healthy 20-40 year old person to stay in his house and lose income because it's important to keep the virus from spreading to the those with health issues who are most at risk of getting hospitalized? It's not fair, and it's becoming apparent that these shelter in place rules are causing mental, emotional, and economic catastrophy to those who are least at risk.

 

[takethepoints]

It's hardy stupid. What is stupid is whining about or screaming about needing g ventilators, then winding up with thousands of unused ventilators sitting in warehouses unused and unneeded. It is a massive waste of resources that could have best been used elsewhere and it perpetuates needlessly the panic that....well, stupid people feel. (Not you, of course)

Did I hear you mention whining? Really? In this thread? Look at it. It is one big monster whine from start to finish. "The mean old government won't let me get a haircut!" "The mean old government won't let me lead a 'sensible' life!" "The virus isn't bad enough to justify infringing on my rights!" Ect. Ect. Ect.

And I might just mention that the needless panic has now killed 80,931 Americans (confirmed cases) in the last 11 weeks, with a rising toll over that entire period. You'd think that people would show some public spirit in such a situation and shut up and soldier until we get a handle on the disease.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

It would be interesting to see statistics of hospital visits/ventilator use before the shelter in place orders versus their use after the order. I'm currently trying to find the article where it points out that if you take out the hot spots for the Covid 19 infections that instituted shelter in place a month ago, the US infection and hospitalization curve is actually increasing. Early on in the spread, the denser cities (New York, New Orleans, Detroit, etc) made up the vast majority of the infections in the US, now it's starting to tilt to the rural areas of the country. Remember, big cities like New York and New Orleans enacted tougher social distancing rules as the outbreak began. Those cities are seeing the benefits of shelter in place and more stringent social distancing rules in the form of a declining curve. IMO, there's a false sense of security because the numbers were so tilted in the early stages of the virus to larger cities...and a month after those cities placed social distancing and shelter in place rules, the curve is starting to come down for the US overall.

https://www.usnews.com/news/healthi...deaths-growing-at-faster-rates-in-rural-areas

I've said this many times. There are no easy answers here. You have to balance the safety of the people on one end, and on the other end you have the economy and people's jobs. Unfortunately, the virus makes it impossible to for those two to co-exist. How do you tell a healthy 20-40 year old person to stay in his house and lose income because it's important to keep the virus from spreading to the those with health issues who are most at risk of getting hospitalized? It's not fair, and it's becoming apparent that these shelter in place rules are causing mental, emotional, and economic catastrophy to those who are least at risk.

I don't think you have to spend much time researching this (that minus NY etc numbers are actually going up elsewhere) to know that it is true. At the **** storm peak of the virus when NY was overrun with COVID cases, we had 32k-35k new cases per day. We were at 24k/day last week, a decrease of about 8k-10k per day. Just in NY state by itself, there were 10k cases/day and now its 3k/day. That's a decrease of 7k. So with just 1 state's decrease, we've already wiped out 80% of the nationwide drop.
https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus-ny/

 

[WreckinGT]

It’s just like the FBI and everywhere else. The leadership is typically the big problem. I am not sure anybody on here has been insulting people who work at the level of your friend, so I’m not sure why you think so. If your friend is at the top brass level, then they are the problem, and we have given numerous substantive examples for why...but I’m guessing that’s not the case. When the CDC almost literally has one job, and it fails miserably at it, that’s not a nonsense political argument - that’s a material factual illustration of leadership incompetence and dysfunction.

I have friends at all levels of the CDC. I worked at the Roybal campus for 10 years on various projects, including in the office of the Director. Which levels are the problem? CDC Director? Center Directors? Deputies? Division Directors? Branch Chiefs? Team leads? Where exactly does the buck truly stop if the CDC Director, HHS Secretary and executive branch are not to blame for anything? Also, if you truly think the CDC has one job then im not sure you know as much about the CDC as you think you do.

 

[takethepoints]

The problem is the Federal Government is riddled with people all over the place with disaster scenarios & they spend decades wringing hands and clamoring for billions/trillions to counteract. You name it Nuclear War- China, Russia, etc, Russia invades Europe, Global Warming floods all the major cities, Oil Shocks, Pandemics, Famines, WW III, Solar Activity knocks out the entire earth’s electrical grid, etc. You can only provide a safety net for so much. Also, people get tired of hearing the same BS year in, year out. Finally the outrageous projection (the once a decade or century deal) comes true and every clown with an opinion comes out of the woodwork saying “see I told you so”.

That's the whole point of a government. It's there to prepare for foreseeable events that private businesses won't take the risk to get ready for or that require investments larger than any financial business would underwrite. Of course, they are preparing for things that don't appear to present an immediate threat. That's their job.

A lot fo us don't like that because we have to pay taxes to finance it. (Shoot, I'm not exactly brimming with joy every April 15 myself.) But … until you can think of a way to do what governments do by completely private means (and good luck, btw) we need them to consider long term risks and opportunities and prepare for them.

 

[bobongo]

It's hardy stupid. What is stupid is whining about or screaming about needing g ventilators, then winding up with thousands of unused ventilators sitting in warehouses unused and unneeded. It is a massive waste of resources that could have best been used elsewhere and it perpetuates needlessly the panic that....well, stupid people feel. (Not you, of course)

No it isn't stupid, it's preparing for the worst - and many predicted the possibility that those ventilators be needed. To a great extent we were flying in the dark (still are in many respects), and we needed to take all possible precautions. What would have been monumentally stupid is not bothering with extra ventilators and then finding out too late that they were needed. THAT would have been ultra stupid.

 

[MWBATL]

That's the whole point of a government. It's there to prepare for foreseeable events that private businesses won't take the risk to get ready for or that require investments larger than any financial business would underwrite. Of course, they are preparing for things that don't appear to present an immediate threat. That's their job.

A lot fo us don't like that because we have to pay taxes to finance it. (Shoot, I'm not exactly brimming with joy every April 15 myself.) But … until you can think of a way to do what governments do by completely private means (and good luck, btw) we need them to consider long term risks and opportunities and prepare for them.

And it is the role of our leaders to select which catastrophes we will invest in defending against and which are so far fetched they are unwise investments.
That does not make the bureaucrats arguments and less tiresome.

where’s our steroid collision detection system anyway?

 

[MWBATL]

Did I hear you mention whining? Really? In this thread? Look at it. It is one big monster whine from start to finish. "The mean old government won't let me get a haircut!" "The mean old government won't let me lead a 'sensible' life!" "The virus isn't bad enough to justify infringing on my rights!" Ect. Ect. Ect.

And I might just mention that the needless panic has now killed 80,931 Americans (confirmed cases) in the last 11 weeks, with a rising toll over that entire period. You'd think that people would show some public spirit in such a situation and shut up and soldier until we get a handle on the disease.

Would you like pictures of the ventilators that were such a panic sitting unused? I can post that if you like. Screaming “fire” in a crowded theatre is NOT the best way to handle things even if the building is on fire (which is still arguable, imho).

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I have friends at all levels of the CDC. I worked at the Roybal campus for 10 years on various projects, including in the office of the Director. Which levels are the problem? CDC Director? Center Directors? Deputies? Division Directors? Branch Chiefs? Team leads? Where exactly does the buck truly stop if the CDC Director, HHS Secretary and executive branch are not to blame for anything? Also, if you truly think the CDC has one job then im not sure you know as much about the CDC as you think you do.

I mean, I have been railing on the leadership for months, so I don't know why you think the CDC Director and so on wouldn't be to blame. They're the ones that set the course. The CDC is the Centers for Disease Control. So yea, they don't really have 1 job, but they kind of do. And when we had a pandemic, it was almost like they had no plan and no framework. If we were ever to get hit with a new MERS or Ebola or COVID or whatever, what would you need? Mass testing and PPE, and some sort of framework for how to manage it across the country. They had nothing. Folks like Dr. Birx said she doesn't trust a thing that comes out of the CDC. We had to break them into pieces and squash them like a bug in order to let states and private industry conduct tests. Their budget is $10B/year. Yet they didn't prioritize any of these things. I wouldn't want to ever blame the middle and lower level workers for that, because they execute on the vision set by leadership. But I don't know how they work - if you want to blame them, you are welcome to. I am going to keep pointing my blame at the leadership level.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Would you like pictures of the ventilators that were such a panic sitting unused? I can post that if you like. Screaming “fire” in a crowded theatre is NOT the best way to handle things even if the building is on fire (which is still arguable, imho).

Cuomo demanded the US send the entire emergency stockpile of 20,000 ventilators to him. Luckily we said no and instead shipped him some, while shipping 10 here, 20 there, 30 over here. Turns out, Cuomo never even needed 5,000. So in the meantime across the country, nobody who needed a ventilator ever went without one. Imagine trying to manage that supply chain when governors and hospitals and everybody else are panicking and demanding far more supplies than what they actually need at the time. What a mess.

 

[bobongo]

Would you like pictures of the ventilators that were such a panic sitting unused? I can post that if you like. Screaming “fire” in a crowded theatre is NOT the best way to handle things even if the building is on fire (which is still arguable, imho).

The consequence of unused ventilators is not comparable to the harm in a dearth of them if they are needed.
The first is a little extra expenditure, the second is death.

It's a bad analogy, but just to note - if I'm in a crowded theater and I see a fire, I'd like to think I'll say something about it on my way out.

 

[takethepoints]

And it is the role of our leaders to select which catastrophes we will invest in defending against and which are so far fetched they are unwise investments.
That does not make the bureaucrats arguments and less tiresome.

where’s our steroid collision detection system anyway?

I completely agree. And that is a very difficult dance to learn to do right. That's why the largest concentration of expertise in the country is found in governments. Not, mind, that that is any kind of magic bullet; experts screw up just like the rest of us. But having someone who does it saves us from harm more often then not. Still, the failures are as galling and get a lot more notice then the more numerous successes.

 

[takethepoints]

Would you like pictures of the ventilators that were such a panic sitting unused? I can post that if you like. Screaming “fire” in a crowded theatre is NOT the best way to handle things even if the building is on fire (which is still arguable, imho).

Remember when it was hard to get even one or two extra at the start of all this? If we had eaten the costs over the last decade and kept the stockpile up to snuff then the problem wouldn't have arisen in the first place. But … we have a lot of people who thought (I doubt they still do) that doing so was a needless expense and tradeoffs are what democracies do. I look on the unused ventilators we have now as a triumph for public health measures, not a failure of foresight.

And, when you know there isn't any fire equipment readily at hand in the burning building, yelling, "FIRE!" might be the best way to save lives. Not optimal, of course.