Coronavirus Thread

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takethepoints

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@takethepoints Funny you cite SARS, Ebola, etc as a reason to prepare for a pandemic. Impacts were overhyped and that’s one of the reasons you got an under reaction now for C19.

Maybe the hype monsters need a valium and let folks that understand what they’re dealing with drive the bus for a change.
You may be right about getting scared. COVID-19 hasn't been as big a problem in South Korea. One of the reasons they were able to mobilize so quickly was that they had a serious MERS outbreak, it scared them badly, and they got ready for the next time. Maybe we'll learn the lesson after this.

I'm not, btw, holding my breath.
 

takethepoints

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lol Ding Ding Ding winner

Well … that would be because we did flatten the curve to a good extent. Once you get hospital admissions under control, you can begin contact tracing and isolation by identifying the infected and those exposed. That can cut the transmission rate down enough to think about eradicating the virus. That's what worked with SARS, MERS, and Ebola.

Oth, if you take your foot off the brake now, the new cases may never go down to a point where you have a chance to defeat the thing. Given the size of the country and its population, using the recommended strategy was always going to be difficult to effect. Now … well, we'll probably end up shutting back down in a couple of months. We'll see how the experiment works out, but I'm betting on the disease unless we get a lot smarter real fast.
 

bobongo

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At the time that he made that request, New York was not yet the biggest problem. Perhaps he saw that it was in all likelihood going to become the biggest problem, and for that his overstatement can be accepted. We do not know just what he was thinking at the time. We do know, however, that he and/or DeBlasio requested additional assistance in the form of hospital beds in NYC, so a ship was sent to NYC harbor and temporary facilities were set up in Manhattan, both of which went largely unused.

Well that's a good thing. Better to be safe than sorry.
 

bobongo

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Here's an informative article by Erin Bromage, Immunologist from UMass about risk of exposure to coronavirus in different settings. In it he makes clear that indoor settings carry far more risk than outdoors. His postulate is that the worst places are closed spaces with poor ventilation and high density of people. That's only intuitive, but what is not so intuitive to many is that outdoor settings usually have far less potential for transmission.

https://gvwire.com/2020/05/11/illus...itioning-demonstrates-danger-of-air-droplets/

From the article:
“When assessing the risk of infection (via respiration) at the grocery store or mall, you need to consider the volume of the air space (very large), the number of people (restricted), how long people are spending in the store (workers – all day; customers – an hour). Taken together, for a person shopping: the low density, high air volume of the store, along with the restricted time you spend in the store, means that the opportunity to receive an infectious dose is low. But, for the store worker, the extended time they spend in the store provides a greater opportunity to receive the infectious dose and therefore the job becomes more risky.”

“If I am outside, and I walk past someone, remember it is “dose and time” needed for infection. You would have to be in their airstream for 5+ minutes for a chance of infection. While joggers may be releasing more virus due to deep breathing, remember the exposure time is also less due to their speed.”
 

Techster

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“If I am outside, and I walk past someone, remember it is “dose and time” needed for infection. You would have to be in their airstream for 5+ minutes for a chance of infection. While joggers may be releasing more virus due to deep breathing, remember the exposure time is also less due to their speed.”

That's why gyms are probably one of the worst places to be. You have heavy deep breathing, enclosed space, proximity, and exposure time. Literally everyone in the gym is a ticking time bomb for infection.
 

WreckinGT

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The entirety of leadership at agencies like the CDC should be fired. They appeared to have no framework in place for how to manage a pandemic - testing, PPE, etc. They utterly and completely failed. How did they not keep up emergency stockpiles? They have 1 job! $10B/year is magnitudes more money than they need to do that. They failed to prioritize what's important, and instead wanted to pay for as many employees as possible doing all kinds of things other than actually doing their job and preparing for things. Some emergency supplies had been around so long they weren't even useable anymore. This **** is not that difficult. You order a certain amount of new supplies every year. Then you constantly rotate older supplies for sale at a discount to hospitals while they are new enough to still be used and in good condition. That way you aren't just throwing crap away and being wasteful. We've known about these sorts of threats for a long time, because we actually get hit with them to varying degrees every few years. But management at the CDC apparently is dysfunctional and incapable of doing the actual real job they're supposed to be doing.
Do you really think the CDCs entire budget is spent on outbreaks and pandemic responses? Do you really think the Director of the Center for Chronic Disease Prevention which gets 1.2 billion of that budget should be fired because of something that had absolutely nothing to do with her? Wouldn’t it make a little more sense to investigate what went wrong with the people actually involved and hold people accountable accordingly at all levels instead of just blankly calling for the whole agency to be dismantled for no reason?
 

Deleted member 2897

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Do you really think the CDCs entire budget is spent on outbreaks and pandemic responses? Do you really think the Director of the Center for Chronic Disease Prevention which gets 1.2 billion of that budget should be fired because of something that had absolutely nothing to do with her? Wouldn’t it make a little more sense to investigate what went wrong with the people actually involved and hold people accountable accordingly at all levels instead of just blankly calling for the whole agency to be dismantled for no reason?

Wow are you a real piece of work. Back into the ignore dust bin you go. I didn’t say any of that. Why do you act like that? Sad.
 

Deleted member 2897

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If you look at the daily new cases trend, you’ll see a repeating up and down trend throughout a week, as more testing is done midweek and less on the weekends. So a week by week average, or comparing to one week prior is probably a more useful metric. Yesterday in the US, we reported a 30% drop in the number of new cases compared to the same day one week earlier.
 

MountainBuzzMan

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That's why gyms are probably one of the worst places to be. You have heavy deep breathing, enclosed space, proximity, and exposure time. Literally everyone in the gym is a ticking time bomb for infection.

Exactly. Did you see where the choir practice that had one person sick. By the time the 2 hour practice was over about 60% of those who were also practicing had also caught it. FYI, the one person did not know they had it. But the deep breathing is a very bad thing for making it really contagious. The exact same thing as a gym.
 

684Bee

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Exactly. Did you see where the choir practice that had one person sick. By the time the 2 hour practice was over about 60% of those who were also practicing had also caught it. FYI, the one person did not know they had it. But the deep breathing is a very bad thing for making it really contagious. The exact same thing as a gym.

Any word on recoveries, hospitalizations, etc?
 

GTRX7

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Quick update on "the Sweden experiment." Here is a comparison to its closest neighbors Finland, Norway, and Denmark.

Total Population
Finland/Norway/Denmark = 16.6 million
Sweden = 10.2 million

Total Deaths
Finland/Norway/Denmark = 1,032
Sweden = 3,313

Deaths in Last 7 Days
Finland/Norway/Denmark = 81
Sweden = 487

Similar comparison with Switzerland, which is more similar in size.

Total Population
Switzerland = 8.6 million
Sweden = 10.2 million

Total Deaths
Switzerland = 1,875
Sweden = 3,313

Deaths in Last 7 Days
Switzerland = 61
Sweden = 487
 
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Exactly. Did you see where the choir practice that had one person sick. By the time the 2 hour practice was over about 60% of those who were also practicing had also caught it. FYI, the one person did not know they had it. But the deep breathing is a very bad thing for making it really contagious. The exact same thing as a gym.
Since I have sung in a choir or chorus and go to a gym too, my experience is that they are not at all similar. In a choir or chorus, members are standing immediately next to one another, less than a foot apart.. as well as being in a relatively confined space, at least for rehearsals. In a gym, at least at the gyms I have been to, unless they are really crowded, which obviously now should be avoided, people there are generally far apart enough to help somewhat. My gym has reopened, although I have not yet been back to it, and they are only opening for relatively brief "sessions", they are limiting the number of people allowed in, and they have said that they will be spacing people there about 10 feet apart. The spacing was already pretty much provided for even before this all started, since the various "machines" are pretty widely separated. After the virus entered the picture, but before they closed, they were, at least on the bikes, treadmills, and ellipticals, only allowing one in three of them to be used, further separating the people using them. Plus, my gym is as spacious in nature as is a grocery store, with a large floor area and a very high ceiling. I'm sure not all gyms are like mine, but the fact is that some, if not many, are.
 
Messages
13,443
Location
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Quick update on "the Sweden experiment." Here is a comparison to its closest neighbors Finland, Norway, and Denmark.

Total Population
Finland/Norway/Denmark = 16.6 million
Sweden = 10.2 million

Total Deaths
Finland/Norway/Denmark = 1,032
Sweden = 3,313

Deaths in Last 7 Days
Finland/Norway/Denmark = 81
Sweden = 487

Similar comparison with Switzerland, which is more similar in size.

Total Population
Switzerland = 8.6 million
Sweden = 10.2 million

Total Deaths
Switzerland = 1,875
Sweden = 3,313

Deaths in Last 7 Days
Switzerland = 61
Sweden = 487
Switzerland is more similar in size??? Switzerland is comparable in size to Denmark, but definitely not to Sweden, which, in land area, is probably the largest of the Scandanavian countries. The populations of the two countries might be considered relatively similar (is that what you meant?), but not the sizes.
 

MWBATL

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Quick update on "the Sweden experiment." Here is a comparison to its closest neighbors Finland, Norway, and Denmark.

Total Population
Finland/Norway/Denmark = 16.6 million
Sweden = 10.2 million

Total Deaths
Finland/Norway/Denmark = 1,032
Sweden = 3,313

Deaths in Last 7 Days
Finland/Norway/Denmark = 81
Sweden = 487

Similar comparison with Switzerland, which is more similar in size.

Total Population
Switzerland = 8.6 million
Sweden = 10.2 million

Total Deaths
Switzerland = 1,875
Sweden = 3,313

Deaths in Last 7 Days
Switzerland = 61
Sweden = 487
You say this like it's bad....Sweden has tried gambling on the herd immunity theory....and only in the long run (like in about 12 months) will we all know whether they were right...or wrong. But, either way, you are playing with peoples' lives....either way (which is something that is all too often forgotten, or not given sufficient prominence imho).
 

bobongo

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Since I have sung in a choir or chorus and go to a gym too, my experience is that they are not at all similar. In a choir or chorus, members are standing immediately next to one another, less than a foot apart.. as well as being in a relatively confined space, at least for rehearsals. In a gym, at least at the gyms I have been to, unless they are really crowded, which obviously now should be avoided, people there are generally far apart enough to help somewhat. My gym has reopened, although I have not yet been back to it, and they are only opening for relatively brief "sessions", they are limiting the number of people allowed in, and they have said that they will be spacing people there about 10 feet apart. The spacing was already pretty much provided for even before this all started, since the various "machines" are pretty widely separated. After the virus entered the picture, but before they closed, they were, at least on the bikes, treadmills, and ellipticals, only allowing one in three of them to be used, further separating the people using them. Plus, my gym is as spacious in nature as is a grocery store, with a large floor area and a very high ceiling. I'm sure not all gyms are like mine, but the fact is that some, if not many, are.

It doesn't much matter how far people are apart in an enclosed space with nowhere for their exhalations to go. People are huffing and puffing. It's an infection waiting to happen.
 
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It doesn't much matter how far people are apart in an enclosed space with nowhere for their exhalations to go. People are huffing and puffing. It's an infection waiting to happen.
Well, people may not be huffing and puffing in a Kroger store, but it sure seems to me there is at least as much potential for exposure in those limited (aisle space) environments than in a large gym area. Also, as uncomfortable as it may be, masks can and probably should be required in a gym setting.
 

bobongo

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You say this like it's bad....Sweden has tried gambling on the herd immunity theory....and only in the long run (like in about 12 months) will we all know whether they were right...or wrong. But, either way, you are playing with peoples' lives....either way (which is something that is all too often forgotten, or not given sufficient prominence imho).

One important variable is the prospect that as time goes on, more and more treatments might be found to ameliorate the effects of the virus. By putting infections off until later, it's possible that many of those delayed infections can be better treated at a later date. Also, warmer weather could buy us more time.
 
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One important variable is the prospect that as time goes on, more and more treatments might be found to ameliorate the effects of the virus. By putting infections off until later, it's possible that many of those delayed infections can be better treated at a later date.
Meanwhile governor Cuomo sent Covid patients to nursing homes, where they spread the infection to the most vulnerable people possible. I heard last night that he has finally woke up and stopped doing that. I sure hope so.
 
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