Coronavirus Thread

[bobongo]

I will simply point out a paragraph from a link posted earlier by @bwelbo :
they worried was inflating some statistics — such as mortality rate and case count — by as much as 25 percent

That's another strategy to inspire false confidence, calling the numbers fake news. Just as predicted.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

That's another strategy to inspire false confidence, calling the numbers fake news. Just as predicted.

I have no idea what you are talking about. The CDC's inefficiencies and inadequacies have been known for some time, and they IMO are only moderately more dependable than the WHO. When a member of the Corona virus task team, a highly respected doctor, says pretty much the same thing, how can you refute it?

 

[bobongo]

I have no idea what you are talking about. The CDC's inefficiencies and inadequacies have been known for some time, and they IMO are only moderately more dependable than the WHO. When a member of the Corona virus task team, a highly respected doctor, says pretty much the same thing, how can you refute it?

I can refute it with the known and well established fact that people have coronavirus who do not have fevers, or any other symptoms. Also, many other maladies can cause fever besides coronavirus. Thus, putting fever detectors at airports is more an effort to give passengers false confidence without providing much real protection.

As far as Dr. Birx saying that, other "highly respected" doctors and scientists beg to disagree. And anyway, isn't this according to unnamed sources, the kind Trump has railed against for years?

And, calling the numbers fake is the next big lie coming out of the White House:

https://www.wired.com/story/as-deaths-mount-trumps-disinformation-strategy-will-adapt/

 

[takethepoints]

Yes, the science is about equally settled on both of them. They are both real. The brightest minds in the world who study them are about as equally wildly in accurate. The experts on both sides are also both equally as confident that they are still the smartest people on the planet.

That's because, if they are active well-reviewed scientists with long experience in their fields, they are. And, in fact, in both areas there is no such thing as "two sides". Some people here may be suffering from a Dunning-Kruger effect. (I won't say you. Yet.)

 

[takethepoints]

Btw, on Didier Roualt and chloroquine:

https://forbetterscience.com/2020/0...idier-raoult-to-save-the-world-from-covid-19/

As the French say,
Il pleut de la merde

 

[Deleted member 2897]

That's because, if they are active well-reviewed scientists with long experience in their fields, they are. And, in fact, in both areas there is no such thing as "two sides". Some people here may be suffering from a Dunning-Kruger effect. (I won't say you. Yet.)

When I said both sides, I meant the CDC Epidemiologists and climate scientists. I didn’t mean opposing sides.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

I can refute it with the known and well established fact that people have coronavirus who do not have fevers, or any other symptoms. Also, many other maladies can cause fever besides coronavirus. Thus, putting fever detectors at airports is more an effort to give passengers false confidence without providing much real protection.

As far as Dr. Birx saying that, other "highly respected" doctors and scientists beg to disagree. And anyway, isn't this according to unnamed sources, the kind Trump has railed against for years?

And, calling the numbers fake is the next big lie coming out of the White House:

https://www.wired.com/story/as-deaths-mount-trumps-disinformation-strategy-will-adapt/

I haven't heard any other doctors with the credentials of Dr. Birx say the CDC is and has been doing a good job. They are stupid if they say that, especially in light of the fact that the CDC, the FDA, and the NIH totally bungled the initial response to the virus.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Btw, on Didier Roualt and chloroquine:

https://forbetterscience.com/2020/0...idier-raoult-to-save-the-world-from-covid-19/

As the French say,
Il pleut de la merde

The very first paragraph of that article calls into question the authority and knowledge of those critics. There has NEVER been a discussion about the use of chloroquine in the treatment of the virus. The drug in question is HYDROCHLOROQUINE. Chloroquine is prescribed for Malaria Prevention, Amebiasis, Malaria. May also be prescribed off label for Sarcoidosis. Hydrochloroquine is prescribed for Lyme Disease - Arthritis, Dermatomyositis, Malaria Prevention, Malaria, Rheumatoid Arthritis, Systemic Lupus Erythematosus., and may also be prescribed off label for COVID-19, Sjogren's Syndrome, Undifferentiated Connective Tissue Disease. It is hydrochloroquine that Dr. Roualt has been studying. Though the two drugs may have some similar uses, the fact is that they are two entirely different drugs. That French expression actually relates to your remarks, which essentially mean you are FOS.

 

[takethepoints]

When I said both sides, I meant the CDC Epidemiologists and climate scientists. I didn’t mean opposing sides.

My bad again! I've got to quit doing this.

One thing, however, that I should have said in the last post is that I see a lot of emphasis here on point estimates. It is certainly true that there is a lot of variation in those for COVID-19; it's brand new and we don't really know that much about it. But most scientific data is presented in terms of confidence intervals of one kind or another. The point estimates are within those intervals, by definition, but the intervals are what we should pay attention to since they tell us how certain we can be (usually not too much) of the point estimates.

 

[takethepoints]

The very first paragraph of that article calls into question the authority and knowledge of those critics. There has NEVER been a discussion about the use of chloroquine in the treatment of the virus. The drug in question is HYDROCHLOROQUINE. Chloroquine is prescribed for Malaria Prevention, Amebiasis, Malaria. May also be prescribed off label for Sarcoidosis. Hydrochloroquine is prescribed for Lyme Disease - Arthritis, Dermatomyositis, Malaria Prevention, Malaria, Rheumatoid Arthritis, Systemic Lupus Erythematosus., and may also be prescribed off label for COVID-19, Sjogren's Syndrome, Undifferentiated Connective Tissue Disease. It is hydrochloroquine that Dr. Roualt has been studying. Though the two drugs may have some similar uses, the fact is that they are two entirely different drugs. That French expression actually relates to your remarks, which essentially mean you are FOS.

Well … if you had read the article carefully, you would see that it concerns results about both drugs, but that it concentrates on Roult's highly touted chloroquine study. The one that has been referenced here so often, iow.

And, yes, that definitely is a Il Pluet de la Merde.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Well … if you had read the article carefully, you would see that it concerns results about both drugs, but that it concentrates on Roult's highly touted chloroquine study. The one that has been referenced here so often, iow.

And, yes, that definitely is a Il Pluet de la Merde.

But Roualt is studying hydrochloroquine, not chloroquine

 

[Deleted member 2897]

My bad again! I've got to quit doing this.

One thing, however, that I should have said in the last post is that I see a lot of emphasis here on point estimates. It is certainly true that there is a lot of variation in those for COVID-19; it's brand new and we don't really know that much about it. But most scientific data is presented in terms of confidence intervals of one kind or another. The point estimates are within those intervals, by definition, but the intervals are what we should pay attention to since they tell us how certain we can be (usually not too much) of the point estimates.

Not sure why the snark - that was my mistake in the wording and I tried to say so.

Yea, when someone says the median death estimate is 120,000 and The range in the model is 30,000 - 300,000, it’s essentially worthless. Kind of like when mean sea level rise in the year 2100 is 3 feet, but the range is 6 inches to 10 feet. It means they don’t really know.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

https://qz.com/1854926/other-virus-outbreaks-erupt-alongside-coronavirus-worldwide

Outbreaks right now in Yellow Fever, Dengue, Ebola, Measles, MERS, and Swine Flu. 2020 can kiss my ***!

 

[bobongo]

the CDC, the FDA, and the NIH totally bungled the initial response to the virus.

Well, even if that's true all those agencies are part of the Administration. NIH is part of Health and Human Services, as are the CDC and the FDA. Chaos and in-fighting have been prime characteristics of this Administration from the beginning. But the CDC has this one right, now. Taking temperatures at airports will do little else than give people a sense of false security, completely ignoring the fact that we now know so many are walking around carrying the virus without exhibiting any symptoms at all. For the most part it's just another pretense that all is under control. It was tried once, and it failed:

https://www.cnnphilippines.com/worl...onavirus-disease-fever-temperature-check.html

From the article:
"While the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has screened more than 30,000 passengers in the past month, not a single US coronavirus case has been caught by airport temperature checks, according to a CNN investigation."

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Well, even if that's true all those agencies are part of the Administration. NIH is part of Health and Human Services, as are the CDC and the FDA. Chaos and in-fighting have been prime characteristics of this Administration from the beginning. But the CDC has this one right, now. Taking temperatures at airports will do little else than give people a sense of false security, completely ignoring the fact that we now know so many are walking around carrying the virus without exhibiting any symptoms at all. For the most part it's just another pretense that all is under control. It was tried once, and it failed:

https://www.cnnphilippines.com/worl...onavirus-disease-fever-temperature-check.html

From the article:
"While the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has screened more than 30,000 passengers in the past month, not a single US coronavirus case has been caught by airport temperature checks, according to a CNN investigation."

OMG. NO PRESIDENT can EVER be in full communication with all the myriad of government agencies. That in and of itself is a major argument against big government. How many people have been in those agencies for decades and never do a damn thing they don't want to do? That is the nature of unelected and mostly even unselected (by any President in office) bureaucrats running, or attempting to run, the country.

 

[MWBATL]

The basic epidemiology on a virus like SARS-Cov-2 is as well settled as the science of climate change.

Gosh, I thought they knew more about it than *that* uncertain pile of mess.....

 

[MWBATL]

Yeah, she's easy on the eyes. But the fact you consider her "intellectual" is exactly what's embarrassing. She's a hack

Maybe, but is she right or wrong?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

OMG. NO PRESIDENT can EVER be in full communication with all the myriad of government agencies. That in and of itself is a major argument against big government. How many people have been in those agencies for decades and never do a damn thing they don't want to do? That is the nature of unelected and mostly even unselected (by any President in office) bureaucrats running, or attempting to run, the country.

Here is a summary of what various officials said under oath during testimony compared to what they were saying publicly. One of the most esteemed epidemiologists in the country just said she doesn’t trust a thing coming out of the CDC. We couldn’t even manage Cash For Clunkers. Our entire government is worse than a disaster. I learned this weekend that my brother and my in-laws both haven’t gotten their IRS payments yet. My wife filed for and was cleared for unemployment in March - hasn’t seen a dime. I’m not sure what the solution is, but it’s darned near Liquidation and starting over. I mean this is some super pathetic obnoxious garbage.

 

[bobongo]

OMG. NO PRESIDENT can EVER be in full communication with all the myriad of government agencies. That in and of itself is a major argument against big government. How many people have been in those agencies for decades and never do a damn thing they don't want to do? That is the nature of unelected and mostly even unselected (by any President in office) bureaucrats running, or attempting to run, the country.

The President appointed the heads of these agencies. They are his responsibility. And if it were a Democratic administration, I'll wager you'd be singing a different tune.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

The President appointed the heads of these agencies. They are his responsibility. And if it were a Democratic administration, I'll wager you'd be singing a different tune.

That shows an apparent ignorance of how bureaucracies work. It doesn't matter for the most part who the head of an agency is; the agency is still full of jerks who do their own thing and can't be fired.