Coronavirus Thread

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

The article is poorly written and contradictory in spots, but I think the Wharton model says 350,000 would be the death toll by the end of June, even if we re-open.

From the article:
"According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), reopening states will result in an additional 233,000 deaths from the virus — even if states don’t reopen at all and with social distancing rules in place. This means that if the states were to reopen, 350,000 people in total would die from coronavirus by the end of June, the study found."

Boy, talk about going into panic mode and, even worse, feeding it. Nobody on earth knows what might happen between now and the end of June; they are all just speculations, some of them informed, but some of them nothing more than guesses. What are they going to say if the number of deaths by the end of June is still less than 100,000? I look forward to hearing their excuses.

 

[GT_EE78]

Boy, talk about going into panic mode and, even worse, feeding it. Nobody on earth knows what might happen between now and the end of June; they are all just speculations, some of them informed, but some of them nothing more than guesses. What are they going to say if the number of deaths by the end of June is still less than 100,000? I look forward to hearing their excuses.

they just go silent. Do you ever hear anything about the 2.2 million dead model now from the formerly esteemed Lancet Journal?

 

[bobongo]

they just go silent. Do you ever hear anything about the 2.2 million dead model now from the formerly esteemed Lancet Journal?

And here's the other end of the spectrum:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/28/death-toll-coronavirus-estimate-214339

From the article:
"A prominent model used by the White House to predict the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak on Monday revised its estimated death toll sharply upward, and is now projecting the disease could result in more than 74,000 fatalities across the United States by early August."

Obviously this estimate is ridiculously low.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

And here's the other end of the spectrum:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/28/death-toll-coronavirus-estimate-214339

From the article:
"A prominent model used by the White House to predict the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak on Monday revised its estimated death toll sharply upward, and is now projecting the disease could result in more than 74,000 fatalities across the United States by early August."

Obviously this estimate is ridiculously low.

Why obviously?

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

The article is poorly written and contradictory in spots, but I think the Wharton model says 350,000 would be the death toll by the end of June, even if we re-open.

From the article:
"According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), reopening states will result in an additional 233,000 deaths from the virus — even if states don’t reopen at all and with social distancing rules in place. This means that if the states were to reopen, 350,000 people in total would die from coronavirus by the end of June, the study found."

Still a high number but definitely not crazy like the article first implied. Thanks for the clarity

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Why obviously?

Because we will be there in 3 weeks. Yesterday was our single highest number of deaths yet. When they say “White House”, they mean Fauci and Birx and team. Trump and Pence obviously can’t do these types of models. So the question is why are these people so wildly wrong?

 

[LibertyTurns]

So the question is why are these people so wildly wrong?

Uh, they work for the government.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Because we will be there in 3 weeks. Yesterday was our single highest number of deaths yet. When they say “White House”, they mean Fauci and Birx and team. Trump and Pence obviously can’t do these types of models. So the question is why are these people so wildly wrong?

This from Johns Hopkins would seem to dispute that number.
https://www.covid19projections.com/projections/US

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

This from Johns Hopkins would seem to dispute that number.
https://www.covid19projections.com/projections/US

Looking at the different countries, can someone go ask Germany what they are doing differently. Their death rate is low, their recovered rate is very high and they look to be truly flattening the curve.

 

[GT_EE78]

Yesterday was our single highest number of deaths yet.

Doesn't look like yesterday was even in the top ten

CNBC is reporting that claim came from WHO.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/who-us-just-reported-deadliest-day-for-coronavirus.html

 

[GT_EE78]

[QUOTE="bobongo, post: 713879, member: 3893"

"A prominent model [/QUOTE]
What do you say to the 30 million Americans who have lost their jobs because of faulty models and predictions?

 

[GT_EE78]

Majority of US spy agencies believe the coronavirus escaped from Wuhan lab
A majority of the U.S. Intelligence Community's 17 spy agencies believe the coronavirus likely originated with an accidental lab escape from a laboratory in Wuhan, China, a senior intelligence official told the Washington Examiner.

The official also noted dissenting agencies remain open to the theory.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...es-believe-coronavirus-escaped-from-wuhan-lab

 

[684Bee]

[QUOTE="bobongo, post: 713879, member: 3893"

"A prominent model

What do you say to the 30 million Americans who have lost their jobs because of faulty models and predictions?[/QUOTE]

Those of us who early on said we were worried about the economic devastation that would be brought on by the lockdowns were mocked and asked if we cared about human life.

We took the wrong approach. Many can admit that now. More will with time.

 

[bobongo]

This from Johns Hopkins would seem to dispute that number.
https://www.covid19projections.com/projections/US

These projections say we'll have over 83,000 in just 7 days from now. As I said, 74,000 by the end of August is a ridiculously low number.

 

[bobongo]

What do you say to the 30 million Americans who have lost their jobs because of faulty models and predictions?

I don't know that they lost their jobs "because of faulty models and predictions". Faulty models and projections have run the gamut from overshoots to undershoots. That's understandable because of the unknown death rate and degree of the spread of the disease. I simply linked articles about the projections, both high and low. Why would I have to "say" anything to anyone? It would be like me asking you what you have to say to the dead (which I most certainly am not doing).

 

[LibertyTurns]

Majority of US spy agencies believe the coronavirus escaped from Wuhan lab
A majority of the U.S. Intelligence Community's 17 spy agencies believe the coronavirus likely originated with an accidental lab escape from a laboratory in Wuhan, China, a senior intelligence official told the Washington Examiner.

The official also noted dissenting agencies remain open to the theory.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...es-believe-coronavirus-escaped-from-wuhan-lab

This has already been debunked. Chairman Xi says so and if anyone says differently they will only do it once.

 

[684Bee]

I don't know that they lost their jobs "because of faulty models and predictions". Faulty models and projections have run the gamut from overshoots to undershoots. That's understandable because of the unknown death rate and degree of the spread of the disease. I simply linked articles about the projections, both high and low. Why would I have to "say" anything to anyone? It would be like me asking you what you have to say to the dead (which I most certainly am not doing).

That wasn’t my quote, by the way.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Doesn't look like yesterday was even in the top ten
View attachment 8287
CNBC is reporting that claim came from WHO.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/who-us-just-reported-deadliest-day-for-coronavirus.html

Silly me, I assumed the news was correct. . But at any rate, 2,000 deaths per day gets us to that number in a couple weeks, so the end conclusion ends up being the same.

 

[bobongo]

That wasn’t my quote, by the way.

Sorry for the confusion. I guess it was GT_EE78. His post got outside the box.

 

[bobongo]

Silly me, I assumed the news was correct. . But at any rate, 2,000 deaths per day gets us to that number in a couple weeks, so the end conclusion ends up being the same.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...worst-one-day-death-toll-yet-as-states-reopen

From the article:
"The WHO reported that 2,909 people in the U.S. died on Thursday, shattering the previous record of 2,471 deaths reported on April 23, CNBC reported."

At any rate, the toll now stands at 68,000. 2,000 a day would get us to 96,000 in two weeks.