Coronavirus Thread

[RonJohn]

I usually don't argue with you RJ, because you have done a good job on this thread covering the multiple variable issues. Things are typically not black and white with you like some others here. so I am confused by this post a bit. Here are some areas that you may want to think about.

1. Don't underestimate the strong link between NY and South Florida. My Southern wife started picking up a bit of NY/NJ accent when we lived in south Florida. I would probably guess a significant portion of the sick started from NY and ran to Florida and then you had a lot of second hand infection
2. That image is flawed as it does not take the population density into effect just raw cases. I immediately ignored it as being relevant to your point
3. Same thing with California, it is a natural landing point for people from China due to the strong business interactions between the two regions

I would guess that warmth and humidity has a strong influence but not a commanding one. In high population areas, the environment in buildings (not real hot with moderate humidity) may still allow the virus to spread even in warmer areas.

I am not arguing that warm weather will have no effect on the virus. What effect climate will have on the virus isn't known and isn't black and white. I am arguing against an article that claims:

This fact is ignored. The virus will likely burn off in the summer like other viruses

and:

... based on data available, the coronavirus in the US should die out come the hot summer months

They then show data, and say that the death rates in New England area are higher than the South, but they include only the population of New England, while including the population of the entire Southern area. The majority of cases and deaths in New England are in metro NYC. If they excluded NYC metro in the data, how would it look. If they narrowed the area to Louisiana, instead of spreading Louisiana's data across the entire South, how would it look. If they included the entire population above the same Latitude line, how would the data look. They basically constrict the data analysis to fit what they are trying to prove.

If you ask me if warmer weather will hamper the virus and help reduce the number of cases, I would say it is possible. However, if you tell me that "This fact is ignored, The virus will likely burn off in the summer like other viruses", I would say that experts have said, even on liberal news stations, that it is possible and hopeful that it does, so it isn't being ignored.. If you tell me that "... based on data available, the coronavirus in the US should die out come the hot summer months", I would say that I haven't seen actual evidence of that. When you put those things together, the article in constructed in such a way to make one believe that it is obvious that the virus can't live in warm climates, and that we are all being duped by the media.

• The spread in Miami may have been started by people from NYC, but if warm weather was to cause the spread of the virus to stop, then when transplants from NYC arrived, it wouldn't have spread in the community.
• The reason I included that image was to point out that contrary to the claims in the article that "all cities experiencing significant outbreaks of COVID-19 have very similar winter climates", the current data doesn't support that. The study they cited was published on March 20th, which is before New Orleans, Miami, Houston, etc had outbreaks. Looking at the current map from the CDC indicates to me that the statement from the study is no longer true.

EDIT: I checked more, and the study cited was originally published on March 5th instead of March 20th. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

 

[WreckinGT]

News just showed how Denmark is opening back up again, with kids under 12 going back to school. They have 5.5m people with 400 deaths. South Carolina has 5.1m people with 135 deaths. More evidence wide swaths of the country should be open and running.

If South Carolina has the same decline in numbers that Denmark has had for over two weeks now and they are willing to take the same measures going forward that Denmark has then im not sure why anyone would object.

 

[LibertyTurns]

@RonJohn Miami’s getting hammered from New Yorkers among others that carried the virus down here while vacationing, cruise ships with all their disease and some spring breakers.

 

[RamblinRed]

What's happening in Singapore right now suggests the idea that heat is going to make it magically go away is pretty unlikely.
Singapore is having their worst outbreak right now and their highs are in the 90's and their lows are in the upper 70's to low 80's.

Temperature is not going to keep it from spreading. Social distancing (both natural - through low pop density and articfical - through mitigation measures) will.
Testing an isolating will also stop it. That is what Australia and SK did so successfully.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

If South Carolina has the same decline in numbers that Denmark has had for over two weeks now and they are willing to take the same measures going forward that Denmark has then im not sure why anyone would object.

People just love to object. We are operating at 1/6th ICU bed capacity and 1/20th the overall bed capacity they've set up in case of a full emergency, we're at very low levels of the virus...but we're inching our way back to normal. I think that's the right way to do it and not in huge steps. Better to err on the side of safety still. Its going to take us a year to work through the virus if we make the curve as flat as it is now.

 

[gthxxxx]

No! We have been on a low growth path since 2007-8. Neither the US or the rest of the world have recovered from that yet.

I guess everything is relative. For years (5+?), I've been hearing how there's bound to be a market correction (in finance) because it's doing too well, but it never happened until now. I don't know how much relevance domestic markets such as the S&P500 relate to "growth" as opposed to metrics such as the GDP, but those have been rising at a similar (eyeballing, it looks to be greater) rate than pre 2007-8.

And the cash we give people right now (here, at least) is not what you call a princely sum. Further, many of us are hunkering on expenditures. There's no real danger of inflation unless a) the banks are willing to take on massive new debt and b) people suddenly decide to not pay their presently outstanding debts. Most of the cash in question is being used for outstanding obligations and to keep food on the table. If anything we might face a long term shortage of demand as the economy slowly gets back up to speed after we get a vaccine. That's one reason for relief now.

I would say $2T (and more coming) infusion by the government is a princely sum, especially when the U.S. GDP for 2019 was ~$20T. The amount that the individual received directly was not much, but majority of it still indirectly affects them, e.g. still getting paid and delayment of payments without penalty, which may relate to your condition (b). Also, I don't know how much of the hunkering is a result of the shutdown. When you're forced to stay at home alone (or with existing residents), there's not really much of an avenue/opportunity to expend on things.

 

[RamblinRed]

FWIW,
Here are the Top 10 countries in terms of deaths per capita. (This leaves out a couple of very small city-states) Deaths per 1M
Belgium 576
Spain 482
Italy 423
France 335
UK 276
Netherlands 250
Sweden 213
Switzerland 179
Ireland 161
US 152
FWIW #11 is Portugal at 84, so there is a large drop off after the top 10.

Primarily mainland Western Europe and the US. All except Sweden have hit their peak for the first wave. Sweden is not projected to hit its peak for the first wave for 3 more weeks, so it could easily move up the list.

One factor to keep in mind is travel. Most of the worst hit countries are the most visited countries. So any relaxation of measures should still include minimizing non-essential travel. Travel (both within a country and outside of it) allows the virus to spread more quickly. All it takes is one person to visit a wedding, a funeral, a church service, a family event that is contagious and all of a sudden you can have a large local outbreak - like Albany which has one of the highest per capita death and case rates in the country - right up there with NYC. This is why the testing and isolating is so important. it keeps people who are contagious from moving around and spreading it.

Top 10 countries visited in the world
1.France
2. Spain
3. US
4. China
5. Italy
6. Turkey
7. Mexico
8. Germany
9. Thailand
10. United Kingdom

Both Turkey and Mexico are starting to have huge outbreaks, they started a little later than the European countries and the US.
This is a big reason why alot of poorer countries that will not be able to handle this haven't been hit hard yet. They simply don't have a ton of visitors.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

FWIW,
Here are the Top 10 countries in terms of deaths per capita. (This leaves out a couple of very small city-states) Deaths per 1M
Belgium 576
Spain 482
Italy 423
France 335
UK 276
Netherlands 250
Sweden 213
Switzerland 179
Ireland 161
US 152
FWIW #11 is Portugal at 84, so there is a large drop off after the top 10.

Primarily mainland Western Europe and the US. All except Sweden have hit their peak for the first wave. Sweden is not projected to hit its peak for the first wave for 3 more weeks, so it could easily move up the list.

One factor to keep in mind is travel. Most of the worst hit countries are the most visited countries. So any relaxation of measures should still include minimizing non-essential travel. Travel (both within a country and outside of it) allows the virus to spread more quickly. All it takes is one person to visit a wedding, a funeral, a church service, a family event that is contagious and all of a sudden you can have a large local outbreak - like Albany which has one of the highest per capita death and case rates in the country - right up there with NYC. This is why the testing and isolating is so important. it keeps people who are contagious from moving around and spreading it.

Top 10 countries visited in the world
1.France
2. Spain
3. US
4. China
5. Italy
6. Turkey
7. Mexico
8. Germany
9. Thailand
10. United Kingdom

Both Turkey and Mexico are starting to have huge outbreaks, they started a little later than the European countries and the US.
This is a big reason why alot of poorer countries that will not be able to handle this haven't been hit hard yet. They simply don't have a ton of visitors.

Part of the reason it is largely first world countries is because data accuracy is so poor in most of the world.

 

[RamblinRed]

People just love to object. We are operating at 1/6th ICU bed capacity and 1/20th the overall bed capacity they've set up in case of a full emergency, we're at very low levels of the virus...but we're inching our way back to normal. I think that's the right way to do it and not in huge steps. Better to err on the side of safety still. Its going to take us a year to work through the virus if we make the curve as flat as it is now.

I agree about very cautiously opening and different areas should be able to open at different rates, but that does mean we need to limit travel otherwise areas that haven't seen any real issues will see them.

If we do this right it is going to take over a year to get close to where we were in February nationwide. There is really no way around that.
Things are not going to return to a pre-COVID normal until we have a widely distributed vaccine and that appears to be 12-18 months out.

The economy was going to crash one way or the other. Either we shut things down and it crashes, or we don't shut down and so many people get sick and die it crashes.
Also, if we didn't close down, but all the other countries did our economy would have crashed simply due to the lack of internatonal trade. so many raw materials, jobs, and sales rely on international trade that it was a fait accompli once this started ravaging the Western world.
Basically once this started expanding rapidly around the world the world economy of going to crash, they was simply no way to avoid that.

IMO this isn't going to be a V shaped recovery. It's not a quick decline with a quick recovery. it is going to be a quick decline with a multi-year recovery.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I agree about very cautiously opening and different areas should be able to open at different rates, but that does mean we need to limit travel otherwise areas that haven't seen any real issues will see them.

If we do this right it is going to take over a year to get close to where we were in February nationwide. There is really no way around that.
Things are not going to return to a pre-COVID normal until we have a widely distributed vaccine and that appears to be 12-18 months out.

The economy was going to crash one way or the other. Either we shut things down and it crashes, or we don't shut down and so many people get sick and die it crashes.
Also, if we didn't close down, but all the other countries did our economy would have crashed simply due to the lack of internatonal trade. so many raw materials, jobs, and sales rely on international trade that it was a fait accompli once this started ravaging the Western world.
Basically once this started expanding rapidly around the world the world economy of going to crash, they was simply no way to avoid that.

IMO this isn't going to be a V shaped recovery. It's not a quick decline with a quick recovery. it is going to be a quick decline with a multi-year recovery.

Yep, I’ve called that a Nike Swoosh recovery. I wonder when the stock market will realize that LOL.

 

[RamblinRed]

Part of the reason it is largely first world countries is because data accuracy is so poor in most of the world.

Absolutely. Both poor data and fake data.
US intelligence estimates the numbers in Brazil are underreported by at least 15 times. They also have been briefing the Fed Government on their estimates of China's numbers since early January being way underreported by a magnitude of multiple times.

 

[RamblinRed]

Yep, I’ve called that a Nike Swoosh recovery. I wonder when the stock market will realize that LOL.

That is a great visual. I've been trying to come up with a way to describe it and that is perfect. Steep drop with a long slow recovery. Talking to some individuals in the financial services industry they won't say this in public yet but privately they are thinking 2022 before we get back to early 2020 levels.

My other gut is that this winter we are going to be relatively locked down again. Hopefully not to quite the level we have been the last 3 weeks. But I think the worry of having to try to separate positive flu symptoms from positive COVID symptoms is going to make alot of health officials to keep travel levels are going out levels to a lower level to give them a chance to stay on top of this. It's part of the reason I don't think there will be a college basketball season this year (I think it is much more likely we eventually get some form of college football - even though right now no one has any idea what that is going to look like. The lastest survey of FBS AD's had only 25% of them responding that they believed the season would start on time. The largest percentage of them - about 60% felt it was likely their would be an oct/Nov start with either a shortened conference only season or a season that starts in the fall, takes a break in the winter and then finishes in the spring. 10% believed that college football would be a spring 2021 season)

 

[Pointer]

People just love to object. We are operating at 1/6th ICU bed capacity and 1/20th the overall bed capacity they've set up in case of a full emergency, we're at very low levels of the virus...but we're inching our way back to normal. I think that's the right way to do it and not in huge steps. Better to err on the side of safety still. Its going to take us a year to work through the virus if we make the curve as flat as it is now.

 

[Pointer]

People just love to object. We are operating at 1/6th ICU bed capacity and 1/20th the overall bed capacity they've set up in case of a full emergency, we're at very low levels of the virus...but we're inching our way back to normal. I think that's the right way to do it and not in huge steps. Better to err on the side of safety still. Its going to take us a year to work through the virus if we make the curve as flat as it is now.

This virus can grow exponentially if left unchecked. That is why I agree with gradually opening things, but also leaving the option of closing things down if necessary. Bowling, movies, nail salons? That's just idiotic.

Can't stay closed forever, but we also must know that this virus is extremely contagious. Just because on a national level we are at low ICU bed capacity, doesn't mean more reginal areas can't be hammered. You can't teleport people who need icu treatment to other hospitals if their hospital is maxed out (we would still be at low capacity nationally in this scenario). Using those two numbers is misleading.

 

[RonJohn]

@RonJohn Miami’s getting hammered from New Yorkers among others that carried the virus down here while vacationing, cruise ships with all their disease and some spring breakers.

That might be the case, but if as according to the gateway-pundit article, warm weather stops the virus from spreading, it would be limited to the transplants. It is spreading in the community, which means that warm weather is not a hard line the prevents spread.

 

[684Bee]

What's happening in Singapore right now suggests the idea that heat is going to make it magically go away is pretty unlikely.
Singapore is having their worst outbreak right now and their highs are in the 90's and their lows are in the upper 70's to low 80's.

Temperature is not going to keep it from spreading. Social distancing (both natural - through low pop density and articfical - through mitigation measures) will.
Testing an isolating will also stop it. That is what Australia and SK did so successfully.

The Singapore issue seems to be mainly dormitory-style living conditions with migrant workers. I can see how that could have introduced it and spread pretty quickly. I noticed that they don't show up in your per capita ranking.

 

[LibertyTurns]

That might be the case, but if as according to the gateway-pundit article, warm weather stops the virus from spreading, it would be limited to the transplants. It is spreading in the community, which means that warm weather is not a hard line the prevents spread.

The folks playing around with the most virulent strain of this virus fully understand the lethality of it. Weather kills off the flu. I think we should be careful declaring hot weather to be an impactful attribute killing it off.

I think what we’re seeing is the 30 or so strains that are “somewhat” benign or “asymptomatic” are not the same animal as the one that kills people. All probably test positive the same way, but it’s my opinion that’s why folks are having difficulty separating the wheat from the chaff.

For example, Taiwan might not have the most virulent strain but Milan did. Maybe NYC has a tough version along with Miami, but Charlotte has mostly easier strains?

No doubt the lethal version is just that, lethal.

 

[684Bee]

This virus can grow exponentially if left unchecked. That is why I agree with gradually opening things, but also leaving the option of closing things down if necessary. Bowling, movies, nail salons? That's just idiotic.

Can't stay closed forever, but we also must know that this virus is extremely contagious. Just because on a national level we are at low ICU bed capacity, doesn't mean more reginal areas can't be hammered. You can't teleport people who need icu treatment to other hospitals if their hospital is maxed out (we would still be at low capacity nationally in this scenario). Using those two numbers is misleading.

Yes, it does seem to be highly contagious, but does highly contagious alone mean we should continue to SIP? Hospitalization rate is the thing.

 

[slugboy]

There’s many possible things at play:
a. Work from home rules may be delaying reporting
b. Attempts to accurately account for C19 deaths may be causing delays trying to verify with doctors. Alternative they are scouring records to inflate the number for different purposes.
c. Could be our healthcare system actually kills more people than it saves so less people in hospitals being “practiced” on is actually a bad thing
d. Could be that shelter at home has resulted in a dramatic drop off of accidental deaths- car accidents, plane crashes, etc
e. I think it’s safe to say crime related deaths are down in our poorly managed big cities
f. Flu deaths, death by pneumonia or other respiratory failures etc are now being attributed to C19 and there’s just not that many more in total.

I’m sure there some more pluses & minuses I missed but think those are the big ones. If I’m a betting man my money is on some of a & b, likely c, d & e and f is probably a wash.

For some reason, either people aren’t having heart attacks and appendicitis, or they’re just not coming in: https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...a3ef24-7eb4-11ea-9040-68981f488eed_story.html

The prevailing theory is that people are so scared of catching the virus that they’re overlooking symptoms that should bring them into the ER.

 

[LibertyTurns]

For some reason, either people aren’t having heart attacks and appendicitis, or they’re just not coming in: https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...a3ef24-7eb4-11ea-9040-68981f488eed_story.html

The prevailing theory is that people are so scared of catching the virus that they’re overlooking symptoms that should bring them into the ER.

I’m sure people are having heart attacks and appendicitis at the same rate as before. Perhaps surgery for non-threatening types of appendicitis is not a good thing? Maybe we’re over-treating heart conditions and on balance that results in a poorer outcome?

Medical care is ENORMOUS BUSINESS. Companies are fantastically rich because of it. Doctors and lawyers make a ton of money. Hospitals, drug stores even the government LOVES the business medical care provides. Trillions of dollars here. What if we only really needed 10 percent of what we’re spending and the other 90% is pure waste developed to enrich the rich ? What if 90% of drugs prescribed and tests run were worthless and the only reason we’re doing then is it feeds the beast? Think of how unpopular this position is and how many would revolt at such a suggestion, but their livelihoods rely on that being false. What if this was 20% correct or even 10%? Huge money, thousands of jobs.