Coronavirus Thread

[LibertyTurns]

@RamblinRed That last graph is for England and Wales from UK Office of National Statstics. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...landandwalesprovisional/weekending10april2020

Anyone know if there is one for the US?

Just quick math but looks like C19 increased the death rate by approx 5.5% (10.2k of 184k)

 

[awbuzz]

Just quick math but looks like C19 increased the death rate by approx 5.5% (10.2k of 184k)

... of "confirmed" infections.

 

[LibertyTurns]

... of "confirmed" infections.

That was people dead of all causes- 5 year death rate against 2020 death rate. Last time I checked you can’t politicize whether people are dead or not. They either are or they aren’t.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I haven’t counted exactly, but someone who cares can. It’s somewhere around 95% of all cases are in the northern hemisphere when you eyeball it.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

That's interesting. worldometers is showing 27K. I'd guess this indicates that the counters reset at different times with two day totals about identical.

Johns Hopkins went back and changed their numbers. That 39k from a couple days ago is gone. And yesterday was bumped up to about 29k.

The Today Show just had world renowned epidemiologist Bill Gates on for an interview today to get his medical opinion on several fronts. Very enlightening.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

News just showed how Denmark is opening back up again, with kids under 12 going back to school. They have 5.5m people with 400 deaths. South Carolina has 5.1m people with 135 deaths. More evidence wide swaths of the country should be open and running.

 

[684Bee]

News just showed how Denmark is opening back up again, with kids under 12 going back to school. They have 5.5m people with 400 deaths. South Carolina has 5.1m people with 135 deaths. More evidence wide swaths of the country should be open and running.

K-12 schools should be back open. Kids from kindergarten age to high school age are at an incredibly low risk. The teachers can wear masks, gloves, keep distance, etc.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

Florida has had about 29,000 confirmed cases. About 17.500 of those are in Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. The temperature there is currently in the high 80s low 90s with humidity from the mid 60s to mid 80s. Is Miami in the green section of that map?

You are correct that it is Fall in Brazil, but the temperature is not cool, and the humidity is not low. Where is Brazil on that map? Is it in the green? It is actually about as far into the red as you can possibly go.

It is a huge stretch to determine that since there are many diagnosed cases in more Northern areas, the virus can't survive heat and humidity and will die out during the Summer. That story originally came from the Gateway Pundit, which is a conservative organization. Step back and read the article without "belief". It starts with a solution. Then it finds snippets of facts that fit that solution and ignores facts (even in the same data it is presenting) that do not fit the solution. The wording and phrasing of the article are made to give the impression that if you don't agree with their "solution" then you are stupid.

I don't care if an article is from a conservative organization or a liberal organization. I try to absorb facts from many sources and arrive at my own conclusions. I try to be skeptical of all sources of information. With this story, ask these questions: If the virus can't thrive in warm climate areas, then why is it thriving in New Orleans and Miami? If the virus thrives in cool climates, why is it not thriving in Minneapolis and Milwaukee?
New York has a ton of cases, but look at this map from the CDC:
View attachment 8255
Does that match the only in cool climate theory?

As I stated before, it might subside as things warm up, but this article hasn't presented any evidence of that. It makes strongly worded claims, provides some data points that don't really back those claims, and tries to force belief because of how forceful the writing is. To get me to believe something, they should present the data and let me come to my own conclusion. In this case, the data the present doesn't even back their own claims, much less convince me they are correct.

I usually don't argue with you RJ, because you have done a good job on this thread covering the multiple variable issues. Things are typically not black and white with you like some others here. so I am confused by this post a bit. Here are some areas that you may want to think about.

1. Don't underestimate the strong link between NY and South Florida. My Southern wife started picking up a bit of NY/NJ accent when we lived in south Florida. I would probably guess a significant portion of the sick started from NY and ran to Florida and then you had a lot of second hand infection
2. That image is flawed as it does not take the population density into effect just raw cases. I immediately ignored it as being relevant to your point
3. Same thing with California, it is a natural landing point for people from China due to the strong business interactions between the two regions

I would guess that warmth and humidity has a strong influence but not a commanding one. In high population areas, the environment in buildings (not real hot with moderate humidity) may still allow the virus to spread even in warmer areas.

 

[684Bee]

I usually don't argue with you RJ, because you have done a good job on this thread covering the multiple variable issues. Things are typically not black and white with you like some others here. so I am confused by this post a bit. Here are some areas that you may want to think about.

1. Don't underestimate the strong link between NY and South Florida. My Southern wife started picking up a bit of NY/NJ accent when we lived in south Florida. I would probably guess a significant portion of the sick started from NY and ran to Florida and then you had a lot of second hand infection
2. That image is flawed as it does not take the population density into effect just raw cases. I immediately ignored it as being relevant to your point
3. Same thing with California, it is a natural landing point for people from China due to the strong business interactions between the two regions

I would guess that warmth and humidity has a strong influence but not a commanding one. In high population areas, the environment in buildings (not real hot with moderate humidity) may still allow the virus to spread even in warmer areas.

Yeah, with everyone pretty much shut in, it's more about the indoor climate than what the temp and humidity is outside. I think being shut in, especially in buildings like many people live in in NYC, has made matters worse.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

That was people dead of all causes- 5 year death rate against 2020 death rate. Last time I checked you can’t politicize whether people are dead or not. They either are or they aren’t.

That's why I'm interested in the total number of deaths reported. There should be a substantial increase in overall deaths. Remember also that some people fight this thing for a long time https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ents-unable-to-shed-coronavirus-idUSKCN2240HI .

Of course, the number of deaths is underreported for a while as death certificates make their way to the necessary agency. My Mom died last May in Maryland (97 years old and I am so thankful she isn't cooped up for this!). Due to the Maryland Anatomical Board "losing" her death certificate, it didn't get to the Maryland Department of Vital Records till November. Bottom line, don't die in Maryland.

 

[684Bee]

That's why I'm interested in the total number of deaths reported. There should be a substantial increase in overall deaths. Remember also that some people fight this thing for a long time https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ents-unable-to-shed-coronavirus-idUSKCN2240HI .

Of course, the number of deaths is underreported for a while as death certificates make their way to the necessary agency. My Mom died last May in Maryland (97 years old and I am so thankful she isn't cooped up for this!). Due to the Maryland Anatomical Board "losing" her death certificate, it didn't get to the Maryland Department of Vital Records till November. Bottom line, don't die in Maryland.

It says they tested positive, but show no symptoms. So, they could potentially spread it to someone (I guess?) who would then have a negative reaction, but that person themselves has no symptoms. That's why the number of cases isn't scaring me as much as it does others. Yes, we absolutely need to know that number, but so many cases are either asymptomatic or mild. The concern is how many cases require hospitalization.

 

[MWBATL]

That's why I'm interested in the total number of deaths reported. There should be a substantial increase in overall deaths. Remember also that some people fight this thing for a long time https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ents-unable-to-shed-coronavirus-idUSKCN2240HI .

Of course, the number of deaths is underreported for a while as death certificates make their way to the necessary agency. My Mom died last May in Maryland (97 years old and I am so thankful she isn't cooped up for this!). Due to the Maryland Anatomical Board "losing" her death certificate, it didn't get to the Maryland Department of Vital Records till November. Bottom line, don't die in Maryland.

I am still confused and baffled by the overall death stats for the USA as posted by the CDC:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

I would have expected a bigger spike...only in one week thus far this year have we seen more than a 1% increase in total deaths over the last 3 year average for that week.

Can anyone help explain why this might be? I am genuinely confused....

 

[Techster]

Social distancing NFL draft room and winner of living your best life award goes to:

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I am still confused and baffled by the overall death stats for the USA as posted by the CDC:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

I would have expected a bigger spike...only in one week thus far this year have we seen more than a 1% increase in total deaths over the last 3 year average for that week.

Can anyone help explain why this might be? I am genuinely confused....

You and me both are confused. I was hoping for something graphical like the Brits do. I'll mess with the data after work tonight.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I am still confused and baffled by the overall death stats for the USA as posted by the CDC:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

I would have expected a bigger spike...only in one week thus far this year have we seen more than a 1% increase in total deaths over the last 3 year average for that week.

Can anyone help explain why this might be? I am genuinely confused....

Most importantly, its incorrect. That chart states 23,358 deaths from COVID-19 as of 4/23. As of 4/23 we were almost 50,000 deaths.

 

[FredJacket]

I don't know the answer to this... but I fear it isn't good. We've been at this over a month now ('shutdowns'... at various levels). Any statistics on "elective" medical procedures not happening that really should and could be happening. Basic early detection screening things like mammograms, colonoscopies, screening bloodwork (i.e. PSA)... I hate to be that gloom and doom guy; but folks are not getting early diagnosis on things that can be treated.... which could turn to something way worse if left undetected.

I know most (prob all) of these medical procedures are still available, if you schedule them... but the "message" everyone is getting would likely force most folks to 'wait' until they feel safer regarding the virus.

 

[RonJohn]

Most importantly, its incorrect. That chart states 23,358 deaths from COVID-19 as of 4/23. As of 4/23 we were almost 50,000 deaths.

The provisional counts for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) deaths are based on a current flow of mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia that have been received and coded as of the date specified. It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I don't know the answer to this... but I fear it isn't good. We've been at this over a month now ('shutdowns'... at various levels). Any statistics on "elective" medical procedures not happening that really should and could be happening. Basic early detection screening things like mammograms, colonoscopies, screening bloodwork (i.e. PSA)... I hate to be that gloom and doom guy; but folks are not getting early diagnosis on things that can be treated.... which could turn to something way worse if left undetected.

I know most (prob all) of these medical procedures are still available, if you schedule them... but the "message" everyone is getting would likely force most folks to 'wait' until they feel safer regarding the virus.

My wife is a nurse, they just reopened all elective surgeries at her hospital again. They have knee replacements, facelifts , all kinds of regular stuff on the docket. Of course, elderly people (to your point) who need a lot of preventative things might choose to stay more isolated.

 

[RamblinRed]

Worldmeters had this in their USA section in their daily report yesterday

"New York State Governor Cuomo said that preliminary findings from an antibody study conducted on 3,000 people at grocery stores across New York State found a 13.9% had coronavirus antibodies, suggesting a 13.9% actual infection rate statewide (21.2% in New York City), which translates to an estimate of about 2,700,000 actual cases in New York State (10 times more than the about 270,000 cases that have been detected and reported officially). Governor Cuomo acknowledged that the official count reported by New York State (which still is not including probable deaths as recommended by the new CDC guidelines) of about 15,500 deaths is "not accurate" as it doesn't account for stay at home deaths. Based on Worldometer's count (which includes probable deaths reported by New York City) of about 21,000 deaths and the 2,700,000 case estimate from the new antibody study, the actual case fatality rate in New York State could be at around 0.78% "

FWIW, the general case fatality rate for season flu is estimated at 0.1%.

That study NY did is interesting, as it mentions that the estimated infection rate in NYC at 21.2%, on Long Island it was 16.7%, Wechester Co 11.7%, rest of NY 3.6%
Given the current estimated R0 for COVID19 that would mean even in NYC you would have to infected 3.5X more people than have been infected so far to reach a potential herd immunity state.

 

[LibertyTurns]

I am still confused and baffled by the overall death stats for the USA as posted by the CDC:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

I would have expected a bigger spike...only in one week thus far this year have we seen more than a 1% increase in total deaths over the last 3 year average for that week.

Can anyone help explain why this might be? I am genuinely confused....

There’s many possible things at play:
a. Work from home rules may be delaying reporting
b. Attempts to accurately account for C19 deaths may be causing delays trying to verify with doctors. Alternative they are scouring records to inflate the number for different purposes.
c. Could be our healthcare system actually kills more people than it saves so less people in hospitals being “practiced” on is actually a bad thing
d. Could be that shelter at home has resulted in a dramatic drop off of accidental deaths- car accidents, plane crashes, etc
e. I think it’s safe to say crime related deaths are down in our poorly managed big cities
f. Flu deaths, death by pneumonia or other respiratory failures etc are now being attributed to C19 and there’s just not that many more in total.

I’m sure there some more pluses & minuses I missed but think those are the big ones. If I’m a betting man my money is on some of a & b, likely c, d & e and f is probably a wash.