That's interesting. worldometers is showing 27K. I'd guess this indicates that the counters reset at different times with two day totals about identical.The next $500B package just passed Congress, with 6 of the 100 Senators voting.
We may have a really really good number today in the US on new cases. We're at 17k right now. We may finish in the low 20ks, a number we haven't seen in 3 weeks.
It isn't me, it's DeLong with his tongue in cheek. He actually disagrees with Krugman fairly often. His problem is that Krugman is usually able to dispose of his objections pretty quickly.
I am not sure exactly how to respond to your post, because you seem to accept some of the things pointed out in the article and ignore others. I will say from the start, however, that I agree with you that nobody knows right now if it is seasonal or not, although there sure seem to be a lot of "experts" saying, or at least implying, that it is. Only time will tell on that matter. Yes, Louisiana has the fourth highest death rate per million in the country (supposedly high, at least in part, because of Mardis Gras), but the AVERAGE number of deaths per million for the warmer Southern border states is 70 deaths per million or 50% of the national average. Meanwhile, the AVERAGE number of deaths per million for the northern New England escalates to 293 deaths per million or 213% of the national average. That could well be attributed to population density, just as for the dense crowds at Louisiana's Mardi Gras celebrations. As far as it spreading in hot and humid environments in the southern hemisphere, yes, it has spread in those countries. Tom Hanks and his wife caught it in Australia. But the article doesn't provide numbers for various countries. It only provides that one map, and if you look at it, it shows by the color green where the virus is most prevalent. The only green areas in the southern hemisphere are western South America, where it is mountainous and mostly cool, if not cold, even during their summer months. As I said from the start, I have no idea how accurate that article is, but to write it off as a "highly biased interpretation of some data," is being rather dismissive on your part. We shall see in the months ahead whether and how much change there will be all over the world as we move from one season to the next, be it cold to hot, or hot to cold. There may be no differences at all, or it could be a complete turnaround from where we are now, if only temporarily. Time will tell.
It's for sure the American public as a whole would not have tolerated the draconian measures being instituted today. As bad a man as he proved to be in an overall sense, we need a (cleaned up) Joseph McCarthy today to at least wake up the public as to what's going on.
Then it would have died out in Brazil. It would have died out in Miami. The claim is proven false by the fact that the virus is thriving in areas that are already hot and humid.
Sometimes pictures are better than words. Irregardless of the transmission rate, the mortality rate, just understand it is a very serious health issue. On a national level COVID19 has been the leading cause of death since April 6th. The top 7 causes of death outside of COVID19 are not infectious diseases. Flu and pneumonia is #8 and in April the daily death rate from COVID19 has been 15X greater than that of the flu.
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First, if you read the words underneath the map, it says "The green area in the above map is where the virus is currently thriving. It does not do well in hotter and more humid environments." I had/have the same reservations you do about that, since the map actually does show the various temperature zones in the world. I ASSUME that what they are saying is that it is in those colder climate zones that the virus seems to be thriving. And there is no disputing that, other than Louisiana, that is the case in this country, although it is greater in the more densely populated areas of the north east than it is in the wide open spaces of states like ND, SD, Wyoming, and Montana. Florida seems to be in the middle of the rankings, and I have certainly not heard that it is rampant there, not even in the Miami area. Second, it is now Fall in Brazil, not summer, and it is only slightly higher there than in the cooler (even in summer) climes of Peru and Chile. Take a look at the Johns Hopkins dashboards for the activity in all countries on earth, and it is definitely worse in the colder winter climes of the northern hemisphere.
If you will remember, I said from the start that I had no idea how reliable that source was, but I DO think it presented some interesting stats. The Johns Hopkins world stats I included in my last response to you is far more factual and yet seems to confirm to some extent what the article I posted said.
And there were a lot of 70+ degree days in Georgia, at least in Augusta, in the winter months, as there always are, so ? Regardless, this is all going to be "proven" one way or another come summer in the US. Quite a few experts are saying that it is seasonal, but what are they basing that on? Only time and warmer temperatures will tell.
So they are both sure and unsure about it at the same time. By all means PLEASE watch the video I posted above. It addresses the kinds of differences of opinion that we are faced with today, and it's hilarious.
