GT_EE78
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gthxxxx
Jolly Good Fellow
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Also, what's the location for the last chart? Has to be smaller than the U.S., because the numbers from the first chart significantly surpass the numbers from the last chart.Sometimes pictures are better than words. Irregardless of the transmission rate, the mortality rate, just understand it is a very serious health issue. On a national level COVID19 has been the leading cause of death since April 6th. The top 7 causes of death outside of COVID19 are not infectious diseases. Flu and pneumonia is #8 and in April the daily death rate from COVID19 has been 15X greater than that of the flu.
View attachment 8246
GoldZ
Ramblin' Wreck
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Not that testing is simple, but rather the need for testing is obvious (simple)....before opening up prematurely, and by prematurely, I mean without testing capability.
Boaty1
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Where are you seeing this? Is Worldometers not there sight? They have it at 25,980.
gthxxxx
Jolly Good Fellow
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Well, the scenario I painted also addresses the opening up prematurely part as well. Assuming you have the testing capability that I outlined (which is extremely unrealistic, but let's say you do), what outcome do you expect by opening up?
Deleted member 2897
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Someone else posted that there appears to have been 1 or 2 large dumps from sources like the military yesterday, which lead to an increase of 39,000 new cases, but that like 10,000+ of those weren’t actually from yesterday. Johns Hopkins still shows the 39,000.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
FredJacket
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Do you find anything funny about your 1st sentence now that you posted it along with pictures & proceeded to get peppered with questions to clarify what they mean? Not picking on you... just found that funny.Sometimes pictures are better than words. Irregardless of the transmission rate, the mortality rate, just understand it is a very serious health issue. On a national level COVID19 has been the leading cause of death since April 6th. The top 7 causes of death outside of COVID19 are not infectious diseases. Flu and pneumonia is #8 and in April the daily death rate from COVID19 has been 15X greater than that of the flu.
View attachment 8246
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The ONS chart is from England. That specific chart is looking at total recoded deaths. I've seen this from a number of different countries and places in the US. Basically the number of deaths occurring weekly right now is significantly higher than any other year in recent it has been measured. This is one reason that when the final modeling is done the estimate for COVID19 deaths is going to rise alot imo. The death numbers by week are pretty stable year to year, so if one year you have a huge spike in those numbers you look for what is different about that year. Obviously for 2020 that will be this virus.
2017-2018 was used because it was the worst flu season of the last decade and that is the last year we have official numbers for. Remember that all these diseases final estimates are based on mathematical modeling.
It was also explained in that chart with the flu line and the flu and pneumonia line that the flu line is an undercount and the flu+pnuemonia is an overcount so the true flu count is in-between those 2 lines.
2017-2018 was used because it was the worst flu season of the last decade and that is the last year we have official numbers for. Remember that all these diseases final estimates are based on mathematical modeling.
It was also explained in that chart with the flu line and the flu and pneumonia line that the flu line is an undercount and the flu+pnuemonia is an overcount so the true flu count is in-between those 2 lines.
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LibertyTurns
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Wow this is neat. Now consider NY is 1/16 of the US total population so they’re singularly responsible for half the US death rate.Sometimes pictures are better than words. Irregardless of the transmission rate, the mortality rate, just understand it is a very serious health issue. On a national level COVID19 has been the leading cause of death since April 6th. The top 7 causes of death outside of COVID19 are not infectious diseases. Flu and pneumonia is #8 and in April the daily death rate from COVID19 has been 15X greater than that of the flu.
View attachment 8246
It would be interesting to take the hotspots out ie DC-NYC-Boston, Detroit, LA, SF, Houston, NO, Miami and then plot the rest of the country.
GT_EE78
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I see that now on the johnsHopkins site.
If they rollover their counter at midnight and some was reported from 8pm (ooGMT) to 12, then we'd see that tomorrow on worldometers.
it hasn't showed up yet on worldometors continuously running count.
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Sometimes pictures are better than words. Irregardless of the transmission rate, the mortality rate, just understand it is a very serious health issue. On a national level COVID19 has been the leading cause of death since April 6th. The top 7 causes of death outside of COVID19 are not infectious diseases. Flu and pneumonia is #8 and in April the daily death rate from COVID19 has been 15X greater than that of the flu.
View attachment 8246
The virus doesn't kill people, it's the side effects like pneumonia which kill people. (tic) Don't you realize this is just a "little" flu?
Notice the large number of people dying in the weeks after Christmas?
Seriously, do you have the same comparison for suicides? About 40-50K of Americans are reported as committing suicide each year (yes this number doesn't include all "accidents"). But it is listed here as the 10th leading cause in the US of deaths. https://afsp.org/suicide-statistics/
Looks like the Carribean is the place to be, need to hurry up and legalize ganja? Would make the lock down easier. https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/suicide-rate-by-country/
YellowJacketFan2018
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Actually you might like this one Navy. This is a graphic put together by a doctor showing the rise in deaths due to COVID19 compared to the Top 15 causes of death in the US.
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1727839/
Suicide avg 129 deaths per day so about 900 per week and about 47,000 year.
This was a good read talking to some restaurant owners in North Fulton Co about re-opening their restaurants. None of them planned to do it immediately. One one mentioned maybe trying to do it in the next couple of weeks. Having read a couple of articles now with restaurant owners I think that is going to be a pretty slow process.
Some said they just got their take-out and delivery logistics down and to switch back would be difficult. one of the owners in the attached article mentioned this is not something you can just turn on a dime.
Some said they couldn't even think about it until the guidelines are delivered and even then were more likely to wait to hear from health officials about when it is safe.
One owner in the linked article talked about not wanting to bring his employees back until they felt it was safe, otherwise they would lose their unemployment.
Some of them talked about it not making sense to do so until the public was comfortable eating in public again.
The biggest takeaway I got was it isn't nearly as simple as turning on the lights and opening up the doors anymore. They have all sorts of legal and social issues they have to get through first. And most importantly, it is likely to be made more on whether they see demand for people to eat in restuarants. Right now there is no demand for it.
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1727839/
Suicide avg 129 deaths per day so about 900 per week and about 47,000 year.
This was a good read talking to some restaurant owners in North Fulton Co about re-opening their restaurants. None of them planned to do it immediately. One one mentioned maybe trying to do it in the next couple of weeks. Having read a couple of articles now with restaurant owners I think that is going to be a pretty slow process.
Some said they just got their take-out and delivery logistics down and to switch back would be difficult. one of the owners in the attached article mentioned this is not something you can just turn on a dime.
Some said they couldn't even think about it until the guidelines are delivered and even then were more likely to wait to hear from health officials about when it is safe.
One owner in the linked article talked about not wanting to bring his employees back until they felt it was safe, otherwise they would lose their unemployment.
Some of them talked about it not making sense to do so until the public was comfortable eating in public again.
The biggest takeaway I got was it isn't nearly as simple as turning on the lights and opening up the doors anymore. They have all sorts of legal and social issues they have to get through first. And most importantly, it is likely to be made more on whether they see demand for people to eat in restuarants. Right now there is no demand for it.
FredJacket
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Can you blame them? They don't get paid enough to be able beat back the onslaught.
takethepoints
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Actually, I thought the federal guidelines about re-opening were pretty good, if they were followed. But I never expected that they would be and I was right. None of the SE states that are re-opening have even begun to reach the "plateau, then decrease" phase of their epidemics and, of course, none of them are ready with anything approximating the test/contact trace apparatus they would need to even go to phase 1, much less phase 2. When you add on top of this that the states involved - Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida - are not what you would call paragons for public health delivery in the first place and you get a potentially dreadful scenario.
If the federal guidelines are followed by governments that actually want to be sincere about it, I'd say we could start to re-open safely for most of the country in late May - early June. It would depend on the states involved. (If, say, North Dakota had decided to re-open like Georgia is planning to do, I'd be a lot less apprehensive about the effects for them.) Not re-opening does mean hardship and it will continue, especially if the virus re-ignites and we have to move back to square 1. What I fear is that if we re-open and we aren't ready - which is the case - then when the virus becomes more virulent there will be considerable pushback on any attempt to shut down to stop it. That's a recipe for raising our projected death toll from 100K to 250K or worse. And, unfortunately, that's what I think will happen.
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There are always people ready to scam you, even in a time of crisis.
https://time.com/5823921/california-doctor-cure-covid-19-mail-fraud/
Dr. in CA was offering COVID19 packs of HCQ guaranteed to keep you immune for 6 weeks and cure COVID19 if you got it.
https://time.com/5823921/california-doctor-cure-covid-19-mail-fraud/
Dr. in CA was offering COVID19 packs of HCQ guaranteed to keep you immune for 6 weeks and cure COVID19 if you got it.
Deleted member 2897
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It will be moved. The Mods just don't have the time or bandwidth to do things in real time.
WreckinGT
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Yes, I can blame them for not being able to enforce policies that they themselves decided on. If we are back to the wild west model then let us know so some can avoid the lounge entirely or join in on the fun.
FredJacket
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Why do you need unpaid volunteers to hold your hand down that path? I appreciate the product they provide. Period.
Edit...they do their level best.
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