Coronavirus Thread

[GTRX7]

Then why did the CDC say in March 31st that it had just been confirmed?

The CDC has been indicating for a long time that they believed asymptomatic transmission was occurring. The only thing that changed on March 30th is that the CDC reported the results of a new study further confining that fact.

As early as January 31st, the CDC was relying on reports of asymptomatic transmission to guide quarantine recommendations. LINK

Here is an article from February 13th where one of the CDC directors says they are operating under the understanding that asymptomatic transmission is occurring based on data from China, just that the rate of that transmission was not yet fully understood: "Redfield said that an infected person not showing symptoms could still transmit the virus to someone else based on information from his colleagues in China. 'There’s been good communication with our colleagues to confirm asymptomatic infection, to confirm asymptomatic transmission, to be able to get a better handle on the clinical spectrum of illness in China. What we don’t know though is how much of the asymptomatic cases are driving transmission,' he told CNN’s Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta in an interview on Thursday." LINK

Here is another article from a couple weeks before Kemp's statement stating: "CDC officials have said that while it's clear asymptomatic spread does happen, it does not appear to be the driver of the outbreak.'" LINK

More importantly, there was virtual consensus in the scientific community for weeks if not months on this point before Kemp made that statement.

 

[dtm1997]

Every GT fan this Fall during football and basketball season: "Outside of developing the vaccine for Covid-19, Louisville is a ****box academic school"

LOLOLOLOL!!!!!!

 

[BuzzStone]

I go here a lot for that information:
https://scdhec.gov/infectious-disea...covid-19/sc-testing-data-projections-covid-19

My guess is since we do heavy pre-screening (and even at the peak it was 85% negative), and since our case volume is dropping, that will also lead to lower tests needed to be run in the first place.

I look there too for data but they have removed the daily test stat. To me a state with a population of over 5.1 million should have tested more than 42K by now.

 

[takethepoints]

I saw the Dr that created the IHME model (which had the apex being April 17 in GA) was quoted this morning saying that based on their model the timeframe for GA to start re-opening would likely be around June 15th. i think this is where the biggest misconception is. The idea of flatten the curve was not to re-open as soon as you passed the apex. The idea was that you had to get far enough down the curve past the apex so that when you do start to loosen up and cases naturally rise - even Gov Kemp said he expected the cases to rise, they don't rise back up to a level that you are once again potentially putting a strain on the system and have to cancel elective surgeries and not have enough room in the ER for non-COVID patients. The idea is to have the capacity to handle all the normal activities at a hospital and COVID19 without it getting to that 100% capacity point. Not be running right at 100% all the time.

Yes, well, all this assumes something not in evidence: that Brian Kemp is paying any attention at all to expert advice on when to re-open the state. I think it is crystal clear that he is not. And I think we'll see a resurgence of cases. And I don't think he will lock down the state again. And I'm pretty sure that a lot more Georgians then necessary will die because of that.

I hope your scenario about businesses being cautious is correct and that long-term self interest will preclude a lot of needless suffering. I know that if I was running a restaurant and had gotten assistance that would let me do it, I wouldn't open until mid-June. Say you do open and people flock in and all of a sudden come down with COVID-19. I would say that your restaurant would be out of business overnight, sort of like a bank that won't let you withdraw money. But … I don't know if businesses whose owners would like to do this can withstand the pressure: "We're losing customers! We can't stand the cash drain!" There'll be plenty of excuses and I suspect that many business owners will use them. Since you are in financial services, you know what I'm talking about.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Actually, I thought the federal guidelines about re-opening were pretty good, if they were followed. But I never expected that they would be and I was right. None of the SE states that are re-opening have even begun to reach the "plateau, then decrease" phase of their epidemics and, of course, none of them are ready with anything approximating the test/contact trace apparatus they would need to even go to phase 1, much less phase 2. When you add on top of this that the states involved - Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida - are not what you would call paragons for public health delivery in the first place and you get a potentially dreadful scenario.

If find it hilarious that the worst areas ie northeast US plus Miami and you can add in their Detroit, Chicago and LA brothers and sisters with all their high fallutin’ smarty pants elitists & super educated brainiacs are trying to dictate to the best run areas what to do.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Every GT fan - Louisville is just a ****box academic school that makes no sense for the ACC.

Louisville - We may have figured out how to treat COVID19.

Well, I do hereby propose we move their national ranking from #431 to #399. Seems fair.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Well, gooooood for you. I was writing about Georgia.

"Well good for you", then maybe you should say so and not type "None of the SE states that are re-opening have even begun to reach the "plateau, then decrease" phase of their epidemics". That statement isn't true, which is why I responded with additional information.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I look there too for data but they have removed the daily test stat. To me a state with a population of over 5.1 million should have tested more than 42K by now.

Why? Anybody who thinks they have a reason to be tested can quickly without an appointment set up a web meeting with a healthcare professional to do a screening. If they are showing symptoms or have been around someone who tested positive, or anything like that, they can be approved to go get tested. (And even after all that, we're still running 85%-90% negatives.)

By comparison, Minnesota is about 10% larger by population than we are. They have run 49k tests:
https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html

 

[takethepoints]

Anyways, back to the main point, which is the timeline of government restrictions, the relief, and Covid. Assuming guidelines are followed, you believe with confidence that we can extend relief to those affected by closure until late May-early June, the virus won't re-ignite (I'm assuming by that you mean the trajectory of new cases won't increase), we can reopen and stop relief, and then sustain the status quo indefinitely (i.e. no re-ignition, no relief, no closure) until Covid is contained which is also unknown. Do I got this right?

No. I think that, assuming that the guidelines were followed sincerely, we can expect that the re-ignition of the virus will be within controllable limits, just like Fauci and others said when the guidelines were released. It isn't a matter of no resurgence; it's a matter of having an infrastructure in place that can handle it when it comes. I also expect - you've perhaps seen my posts on how I don't expect either a football or basketball season this fall/winter - that we'll get a second wave. That could be very bad indeed since it would correspond with a seasonal flu outbreak. If we go into that with the virus already raging, we will be up the creek in very short order. That's why I think it is important to follow the guidelines now.

Another thing: the guidelines were written to form limits that could be set by expert opinion. That's why they are vague in spots. Take the idea of robust infrastructure. That could be one thing in Hawaii and another thing in Georgia. But, of course, the folks who wrote them were assuming that expert opinion would be heeded. That's always a dicey proposition in the US; we have a long standing anti-intellectual tradition here. As present experience in Georgia brings into sharp relief.

 

[takethepoints]

"Well good for you", then maybe you should say so and not type "None of the SE states that are re-opening have even begun to reach the "plateau, then decrease" phase of their epidemics". That statement isn't true, which is why I responded with additional information.

I stand corrected. But …

What does the public health service in South Carolina say about the governor's plans? And what's the state of testing and contact tracing there? Btw, I mean statewide, not just in Charleston.

 

[RonJohn]

The CDC has been indicating for a long time that they believed asymptomatic transmission was occurring. The only thing that changed on March 30th is that the CDC reported the results of a new study further confining that fact.

As early as January 31st, the CDC was relying on reports of asymptomatic transmission to guide quarantine recommendations. LINK

Here is an article from February 13th where one of the CDC directors says they are operating under the understanding that asymptomatic transmission is occurring based on data from China, just that the rate of that transmission was not yet fully understood: "Redfield said that an infected person not showing symptoms could still transmit the virus to someone else based on information from his colleagues in China. 'There’s been good communication with our colleagues to confirm asymptomatic infection, to confirm asymptomatic transmission, to be able to get a better handle on the clinical spectrum of illness in China. What we don’t know though is how much of the asymptomatic cases are driving transmission,' he told CNN’s Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta in an interview on Thursday." LINK

Here is another article from a couple weeks before Kemp's statement stating: "CDC officials have said that while it's clear asymptomatic spread does happen, it does not appear to be the driver of the outbreak.'" LINK

More importantly, there was virtual consensus in the scientific community for weeks if not months on this point before Kemp made that statement.

Kemp said he was going off of new information from the CDC. The CDC director said on NPR two days before Kemp's announcement:

Has the CDC learned anything new about the virus, such as how contagious it is or how it is transmitted, in recent weeks?

Let's take transmission. ... This virus does have the ability to transmit far easier than flu. It's probably now about three times as infectious as flu.

One of the [pieces of] information that we have pretty much confirmed now is that a significant number of individuals that are infected actually remain asymptomatic. That may be as many as 25%. That's important, because now you have individuals that may not have any symptoms that can contribute to transmission, and we have learned that in fact they do contribute to transmission.

And finally, of those of us that get symptomatic, it appears that we're shedding significant virus in our oropharyngeal compartment, probably up to 48 hours before we show symptoms. This helps explain how rapidly this virus continues to spread across the country, because we have asymptomatic transmitters and we have individuals who are transmitting 48 hours before they become symptomatic.

That is far different than "... while it's clear asymptomatic spread does happen, it does not appear to be the driver of the outbreak."

I am not really trying to defend Kemp. I am just pointing out that the simplistic attitude that he didn't know something everyone else in the entire universe knew 100 years ago isn't accurate and doesn't help debate about actual issues that should be debated. The CDC up until that week said that asymptomatic spread was not likely to be a big factor in the spread of the virus. Then days before his announcement, they changed and said that up to 25% of infected people never develop any symptoms, but still spread the virus. I think he shouldn't have tried to defend his announcement, but just have made it. If he defended it anyway, he should have had the doctors write that portion of his announcement. However, technically speaking the CDC did make information available at that time that asymptomatic spread was of far greater concern than they had previously stated. Kemp cited that newly announced concern and was ridiculed for it.

If the press were to actually ask or try to find the new information he was referring to was, it wouldn't be as good of a news story but it would have been more accurate. I am not being political in my statement, the conservative media does the same thing to Democrats. I just drive me nuts no matter what the political leanings of the reporters are. I want information that I can use to make my own decisions, not the decisions that reporters have already made for themselves.

 

[FredJacket]

@bwelbo Question about SC beaches. Closed to everyone? Open to residents (of that locale... i.e. Folly beach residents can access Folly beach, but not IOP) with some proof of their address... or some relaxed version of that? Are beach rentals happening? If so.. are hotels, condos, houses handled differently? Finally... what is your 'educated' crystal ball telling you about relaxing any of those restrictions in May, June & beyond?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I stand corrected. But …

What does the public health service in South Carolina say about the governor's plans? And what's the state of testing and contact tracing there? Btw, I mean statewide, not just in Charleston.

Every time I've seen Governor McMaster's press conferences, the state chief epidemiologist is there also speaking and answering questions. It sounds like to me he's been going off of what she says and recommends along with the federal CDC and NIH people. Because from what I've seen so far, we were very aggressive early shutting things down (we first started staying at home over a month ago), we're gradually starting to carefully open things up - and we are over a week past our peak - and that peak was well below original projections - and our hospitals are currently at 30% capacity. With surge capacity of beds, we are currently at 1/20th capacity. All these things are what I would think would make health experts bless a careful and gradual re-opening plan.

@bwelbo Question about SC beaches. Closed to everyone? Open to residents (of that locale... i.e. Folly beach residents can access Folly beach, but not IOP) with some proof of their address... or some relaxed version of that? Are beach rentals happening? If so.. are hotels, condos, houses handled differently? Finally... what is your 'educated' crystal ball telling you about relaxing any of those restrictions in May, June & beyond?

The beaches by me are all currently closed to everyone. And when I mean that, I mean not just the sand on the beach, but there are checkpoints on the road and you can't even enter the town limits if you don't live or work there. The Governor recently gave the local mayors the decision for if and when and how to re-open anything - either to residents, nonresidents, capacity planning, rules, etc. So far they have all said they aren't re-opening anything yet. Short term rentals were shut down quite a long time ago. I don't know if they've relaxed those yet or not.

My crystal ball says that as far as beaches go, we shouldn't touch them in phase 1. Because with wind, you probably would need to stay 50 feet away from people on a beach. Not possible to police and do. I think every week or two as long as we don't show an increase in cases, they might inch towards more loosening (like reopening parks and open spaces, which are currently still closed). So far as far as I can tell (I don't watch every single press conference every day), they do seem to be taking this seriously and methodically.

 

[RonJohn]

Every GT fan - Louisville is just a ****box academic school that makes no sense for the ACC.

Louisville - We may have figured out how to treat COVID19.

We will see. Remember that GT scientists "confirmed" a cold fusion experiment in the late 80s.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Wow this is neat. Now consider NY is 1/16 of the US total population so they’re singularly responsible for half the US death rate.

It would be interesting to take the hotspots out ie DC-NYC-Boston, Detroit, LA, SF, Houston, NO, Miami and then plot the rest of the country.

I'd love to see that too. I would **expect** the total number of deaths to keep increasing as the rest of the areas, hotspot and rural, start getting to their peak. What I really like about the total number of deaths from all causes is that it gets out out of some of the classification and testing discussion and gives perspective on severity. But again, I agree I'd like to see the data without New York.

I guess the mods gave up on the whole no politics thing.

We need to be adults and stick to non-political facts. The mods have a life outside of this board and we are lucky to have it.

 

[gthxxxx]

No. I think that, assuming that the guidelines were followed sincerely, we can expect that the re-ignition of the virus will be within controllable limits, just like Fauci and others said when the guidelines were released. It isn't a matter of no resurgence; it's a matter of having an infrastructure in place that can handle it when it comes. I also expect - you've perhaps seen my posts on how I don't expect either a football or basketball season this fall/winter - that we'll get a second wave. That could be very bad indeed since it would correspond with a seasonal flu outbreak. If we go into that with the virus already raging, we will be up the creek in very short order. That's why I think it is important to follow the guidelines now.

Another thing: the guidelines were written to form limits that could be set by expert opinion. That's why they are vague in spots. Take the idea of robust infrastructure. That could be one thing in Hawaii and another thing in Georgia. But, of course, the folks who wrote them were assuming that expert opinion would be heeded. That's always a dicey proposition in the US; we have a long standing anti-intellectual tradition here. As present experience in Georgia brings into sharp relief.

So then, presumably, there will be a continuous switch between inside and outside controllable limits, open and close, no relief and relief, across "regions" (state? county? zip code?) indefinitely until a vaccine is developed (I'd imagine getting "natural" herd immunity via this method would take much much longer than a vaccine, but no guarantees on either front)?

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

Well, I do hereby propose we move their national ranking from #431 to #399. Seems fair.

Good thing they joined the ACC. To be the best you have to compete with the best. Otherwise they would be researching ways to put 6 gallons of bourbon in a 5 gallon bucket

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Good thing they joined the ACC. To be the best you have to compete with the best. Otherwise they would be researching ways to put 6 gallons of bourbon in a 5 gallon bucket

Georgia Tech grads solved that problem a long time ago with clear whiskey - you drink 1 gallon and pour the rest in.

 

[takethepoints]

Every time I've seen Governor McMaster's press conferences, the state chief epidemiologist is there also speaking and answering questions. It sounds like to me he's been going off of what she says and recommends along with the federal CDC and NIH people. Because from what I've seen so far, we were very aggressive early shutting things down (we first started staying at home over a month ago), we're gradually starting to carefully open things up - and we are over a week past our peak - and that peak was well below original projections - and our hospitals are currently at 30% capacity. With surge capacity of beds, we are currently at 1/20th capacity. All these things are what I would think would make health experts bless a careful and gradual re-opening plan.

Good. Problems = the guidelines say two weeks after peak, not one. Also, what's the testing/contract tracing infrastructure up there?

Still, it looks like South Carolina is in much better shape then we are to take on the inevitable resurgence. As long as the state stays careful and isn't afraid to backtrack if necessary.

 

[takethepoints]

So then, presumably, there will be a continuous switch between inside and outside controllable limits, open and close, no relief and relief, across "regions" (state? county? zip code?) indefinitely until a vaccine is developed (I'd imagine getting "natural" herd immunity via this method would take much much longer than a vaccine, but no guarantees on either front)?

Well, if you want to avoid unnecessary deaths and assaults on health, yes. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we had to close things down again around September. But maybe we'll get all rational all of a sudden and develop the capacity to handle a second wave while we get a respite. This process isn't like a light switch; we need to get ready for what ever comes while we have the chance. And we have to react accordingly.