Coronavirus Thread

[WreckinGT]

One of the last ones to shut down, and one of the first to open back up while still at the height of the problem. What could go wrong?

 

[JacketOff]

Way too fast. What we should have done is shut everything down for a month, and I mean really shut down - including no planes, trains, buses, except for those absolutely essential. Only absolutely essential businesses open. Had we done that, and stockpiled testing materials, and gotten a handle on what treatments work and what don't, and stockpiled the ones that do during that time, then we could think about starting to open up bit by bit. But as soon as the curve flattens and the spike becomes a plateau, here we are off to the races. We'll stay on the plateau for a while, then we'll start spiking up again. We are not ready.

Do the people making these decisions not realize the plateau ≠ decline? In the governor’s press conference it was specifically stated that Georgia had been on decline for new cases and deaths for the required 2 weeks? When? That’s literally a lie. As Red said, today was the 2nd deadliest day of the year, and top 10 in new infections. That doesn’t seem like decline to me. Shouldn’t be super surprising that the governor’s office is lying to us when uGag man Kemp said he was unaware asymptomatic people could be carriers just 2 weeks ago. That was either a lie, or he (and his staff) were completely ignorant to everything experts and the CDC had released for 2 months. Either choice is pretty bad. Add on top of the fact that today was the 2nd most deadly, Georgia is testing citizens at the 7th lowest rate in the country. That’s unacceptable for the state with the 8th highest population. May 18-31 will probably turn out to be some of the deadliest days in Georgia history. Sad sad stuff.

 

[RonJohn]

Exaggerate much?

Shouldn’t be super surprising that the governor’s office is lying to us when uGag man Kemp said he was unaware asymptomatic people could be carriers just 2 weeks ago. That was either a lie, or he (and his staff) were completely ignorant to everything experts and the CDC had released for 2 months. Either choice is pretty bad.

It was reported that the CDC made announcements earlier that week that asymptomatic transmission was worse than previously thought.

From March 31st, two days before Kemp's press conference that you reference: https://www.npr.org/sections/health...ths-to-come-this-virus-is-going-to-be-with-us

Has the CDC learned anything new about the virus, such as how contagious it is or how it is transmitted, in recent weeks?

Let's take transmission. ... This virus does have the ability to transmit far easier than flu. It's probably now about three times as infectious as flu.

One of the [pieces of] information that we have pretty much confirmed now is that a significant number of individuals that are infected actually remain asymptomatic. That may be as many as 25%. That's important, because now you have individuals that may not have any symptoms that can contribute to transmission, and we have learned that in fact they do contribute to transmission.

So the CDC said almost the same thing as Kemp? News reporting ignored the fact that the CDC said the same thing. Why? I don't think it is really politics, they would rather concentrate on anything that creates controversy.

Georgia is testing citizens at the 7th lowest rate in the country. That’s unacceptable for the state with the 8th highest population.

I agree that Georgia should be doing better at testing.

May 18-31 will probably turn out to be some of the deadliest days in Georgia history. Sad sad stuff.

If people actually follow the guidelines that the governor is putting forth, then hopefully the impact will be minimal. He is not opening things back up to normal. I wish the governor and the state would issue good guidelines about what the businesses are supposed to do. How much occupancy is allowed? 10 people? 20% of capacity? What? What distancing guidelines should the businesses use? Should everyone be required to wear a face mask? (I would be in favor of that).

Unfortunately all of the media coverage is about "opening back up for business", which implies going back to pre shut down levels of business. That isn't good for the debate, and it will lead to people actually believing they are supposed to go back to that level.

 

[gtchem05]

Red,
Thanks so much for taking a look at this and offering your insight and thoughts. You were able to highlight some areas in the article that I’m not very clear on and could improve. So I appreciate that very much. Although we have a difference of opinion on a few things, it’s refreshing to be able to see someone disagree in a respectful way. So I also appreciate that. Classic Tech man move! I’ll just reply to a few of your comments for clarity sake.

On natural herd immunity having never been developed before:
I will definitely need to be more clear in the article on that. We have to look no further than the 4 other non-SARS or MERS coronaviruses for examples of viruses to which humans have achieved natural herd immunity. Other such respiratory viruses would include human metapneumovirus and parainfluenza.

On having to have to redo the herd immunity:
Interesting thought but this would not be the case. The virus would become endemic like 4 of the 7 other coronaviruses already have and on repeat exposure most people’s immune systems would get a refresher course on how to kill the virus every few years with minimal to no symptoms depending on how much their immunity had waned.

On the difficulty of isolating 68 million Americans:
We’ve isolated 325 million for over a month. The group I’m talking about is the easiest 68 million to do so - not children and the majority not part of the work force. Also, most of this vulnerable group will probably be voluntarily isolating themselves for a few months regardless of what anyone says. Lastly, antibody testing will allow family, friends, and caretakers who have demonstrated immunity to be close to this vulnerable group.

It looks like in a lot of your other comments you use different statistical sources than I do. So, I’m not sure what else to say about that except that I would encourage interested readers on this forum to compare the sources and math between my article and your comments and form their own opinions.

Take care and stay safe!

 

[bobongo]

Exaggerate much?

It was reported that the CDC made announcements earlier that week that asymptomatic transmission was worse than previously thought.

From NBC News: "Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia, admitted on Wednesday that he had only just learned that asymptomatic individuals can still spread coronavirus — even though health experts had warned about the possibility as early as January."

He didn't even know asymptomatic transmission was a thing.

 

[takethepoints]

It is true. However, there are limitations. It isn't that all of those places are 100% open the way they were before. They have to limit capacity, maintain distancing, and disinfect repeatedly.

The one sentence description makes it sound like business as usual. The news reports about Tybee Island Beach used photos and video from before the pandemic. The picture used by most news organizations was first used by a Savannah local station the day that the beaches were opened, before the access was actually opened up. I think they didn't have actual video of people on the beach at that time, so they used stock video. There is a Facebook post about the images from Jacksonville beaches this past weekend that shows that the pictures are real, but lack perspective.

These changes in Georgia might end up being too fast, but the media does a very poor job of explaining what is actually happening. Whether it makes Georgia look silly in the nation isn't as important to me as people in Georgia actually being informed about what the rules actually are. It is the responsibility of the press to inform people. One sentence remarks like the one you posted could have a gym owner actually believe that he has been cleared to operate the way he did before. Bad press could be the reason that some gym owner steps over the actual guidelines and does put people at risk.

I thought something like this would happen.

The "guidelines" are fraught with what the economists call "moral hazard". In this case, what that means is that a party has an incentive to take unusual risks in order to avoid losing gains as a result of action. In both the Georgia and South Carolina cases, the possible loss is among their supporters - both businesses and individuals - who dislike the restrictions and want them lifted. The governors in both states sucked in their guts and obliged. This could have been avoided if the federal government had made the guidelines obligatory, but the present administration wouldn't do that.

It is a virtual certainty that the virus - which could care less about moral hazard - will re-ignite in both states. Two queries. First, will businesses, once they are opened, maintain the social distancing requirements, especially when they find out that a) profits go up when they don't and b) there aren't any teeth in the enforcement efforts? Some will, until they notice that their competitors are doing better by ignoring social distancing. This is another aspect of moral hazard; there's every reason to cheat on legal requirements that aren't enforced. And the level of risk goes up. Second, will we ever know? The automatic incentive once the businesses are open is to underreport cases and deaths. Or, more probably, cast doubt on the reporting agencies and insist that nothing too bad is happening. Further, there will be plenty of incentives for businesses to resist re-imposition of restrictions, no matter what the consequences. And, of course, people who have gone back to work will want to stay that way. Even those who want to keep safe will be caught up in this. Until it is obvious that the strategies aren't working and a lot more people are getting sick and dying, of course.

But I hope that most Georgians (can't speak of people in South Carolina) will have enough sense to avoid the re-opened businesses, no matter what. That's what's happening in China. Georgians are probably as smart as the Chinese.

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

Anybody who wants to is welcome to quarantine themselves and stay home for as long as they want.

That simply isn’t true. For example, what if your job is forcing you to get out and you have pre-existenting conditions?

 

[bobongo]

That simply isn’t true. For example, what if your job is forcing you to get out and you have pre-existenting conditions?

Exactly. You can quarantine yourself as long as you don't mind losing your job. People will be forced to make the choice of either feeding their families or risking exposure of themselves and their families to coronavirus.

 

[RonJohn]

From NBC News: "Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia, admitted on Wednesday that he had only just learned that asymptomatic individuals can still spread coronavirus — even though health experts had warned about the possibility as early as January."

He didn't even know asymptomatic transmission was a thing.

Exactly what I said in my post. The news media ignored the fact that the CDC issued statements two days before Kemp's press conference in which they said that they just then confirmed asymptomatic spread, and that an estimated 25% of infected people are asymptomatic. The media is making a big deal of statements and wording, while trying to create controversy and drama. Not from one political leaning or the other, but the media is doing a terrible job of reporting facts.

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

From NBC News: "Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia, admitted on Wednesday that he had only just learned that asymptomatic individuals can still spread coronavirus — even though health experts had warned about the possibility as early as January."

He didn't even know asymptomatic transmission was a thing.

We literally had a memo sent out at work on March 11th about this. Kemp was lying or totally clueless. Not sure what’s worse.

 

[RonJohn]

I thought something like this would happen.

The "guidelines" are fraught with what the economists call "moral hazard". In this case, what that means is that a party has an incentive to take unusual risks in order to avoid losing gains as a result of action. In both the Georgia and South Carolina cases, the possible loss is among their supporters - both businesses and individuals - who dislike the restrictions and want them lifted. The governors in both states sucked in their guts and obliged. This could have been avoided if the federal government had made the guidelines obligatory, but the present administration wouldn't do that.

I have said several times that there are some things that could have been relaxed earlier, or even not ever implemented. These are not Georgia related: Someone surfing alone in the ocean is not possibly going to infect other people or get infected. (He might not receive lifeguard assistance and die.) A person driving their car for pleasure isn't going to infect other people or get infected. A person picking up potted plants at Home Depot isn't likely to infect other people or get infected if they wear masks and maintain social distance. (They could go to Home Depot and buy electrical wire, but not enter the garden center?)

I don't think the federal government could have easily made the guidelines obligatory. Some governors have stated that if the federal government attempts to make guidelines to reopen obligatory that they will not comply and either take it to court or force the federal government to take it to court. I have no interest in discussing the political party aspects of any of this.

Gyms, nail/hair salons, and bowling alleys are not the things that I would open first I don't think. As I stated before, I would like for there to be more precise guidelines for capacity, social distancing, etc. I would like for there to be a requirement for people in public to wear masks. (Not to protect me from stuff in the air, but to mitigate infected people from putting stuff into the air)

It is a virtual certainty that the virus - which could care less about moral hazard - will re-ignite in both states. Two queries. First, will businesses, once they are opened, maintain the social distancing requirements, especially when they find out that a) profits go up when they don't and b) there aren't any teeth in the enforcement efforts? Some will, until they notice that their competitors are doing better by ignoring social distancing. This is another aspect of moral hazard; there's every reason to cheat on legal requirements that aren't enforced. And the level of risk goes up. Second, will we ever know? The automatic incentive once the businesses are open is to underreport cases and deaths. Or, more probably, cast doubt on the reporting agencies and insist that nothing too bad is happening. Further, there will be plenty of incentives for businesses to resist re-imposition of restrictions, no matter what the consequences. And, of course, people who have gone back to work will want to stay that way. Even those who want to keep safe will be caught up in this. Until it is obvious that the strategies aren't working and a lot more people are getting sick and dying, of course.

But I hope that most Georgians (can't speak of people in South Carolina) will have enough sense to avoid the re-opened businesses, no matter what. That's what's happening in China. Georgians are probably as smart as the Chinese.

Will some businesses/people push things too far? Sure, but some already have been.

As I said above, if there are precise guidelines issued and reported, then this could be a good compromise. Some health risk, but also some economic reward. My biggest issue is that the reporting, and much of the debate in this thread is about "fully reopening" vs "lying in cryogen chambers". To many people it is difficult to ignore rancor and discuss actual details of issues.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

*sigh* and if everyone would’ve just followed regulations and recommendations, the economy would be able to start reopening next week with very little push back, a la South Korea. It’s almost like, high testing numbers and quarantines work or something. Strange I know.

We will never be an Orwellian police state like South Korea. Terrible illustration.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I thought something like this would happen.

The "guidelines" are fraught with what the economists call "moral hazard". In this case, what that means is that a party has an incentive to take unusual risks in order to avoid losing gains as a result of action. In both the Georgia and South Carolina cases, the possible loss is among their supporters - both businesses and individuals - who dislike the restrictions and want them lifted. The governors in both states sucked in their guts and obliged. This could have been avoided if the federal government had made the guidelines obligatory, but the present administration wouldn't do that.

It is a virtual certainty that the virus - which could care less about moral hazard - will re-ignite in both states. Two queries. First, will businesses, once they are opened, maintain the social distancing requirements, especially when they find out that a) profits go up when they don't and b) there aren't any teeth in the enforcement efforts? Some will, until they notice that their competitors are doing better by ignoring social distancing. This is another aspect of moral hazard; there's every reason to cheat on legal requirements that aren't enforced. And the level of risk goes up. Second, will we ever know? The automatic incentive once the businesses are open is to underreport cases and deaths. Or, more probably, cast doubt on the reporting agencies and insist that nothing too bad is happening. Further, there will be plenty of incentives for businesses to resist re-imposition of restrictions, no matter what the consequences. And, of course, people who have gone back to work will want to stay that way. Even those who want to keep safe will be caught up in this. Until it is obvious that the strategies aren't working and a lot more people are getting sick and dying, of course.

But I hope that most Georgians (can't speak of people in South Carolina) will have enough sense to avoid the re-opened businesses, no matter what. That's what's happening in China. Georgians are probably as smart as the Chinese.

Dont pull South Carolina into this - our situation is once again being falsely reported. We’re opening certain businesses...........but that’s not the entire story. Masks should be worn and social distancing should be followed. No more than 5 people per 1,000 square feet of space - max capacity is limited to 20% of normal. And so on. As usual, none of those important details were reported in the news last night. It’s just like when they said we instituted a stay-at-home order...30 days after we actually did.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

That simply isn’t true. For example, what if your job is forcing you to get out and you have pre-existenting conditions?

Then quit or find another job. Hardly anybody has died under the age of 60. My in-laws are both old and have pre-existing conditions. It doesn’t matter if states re-open any or not, they’re staying isolated until there is a vaccine. When you leave your house, you could get cancer or hit by a car or any number of things. The odds of someone under 60 (the vast majority of the workforce) dying of the Coronavirus is close to zero.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Exactly. You can quarantine yourself as long as you don't mind losing your job. People will be forced to make the choice of either feeding their families or risking exposure of themselves and their families to coronavirus.

This is a horrific bastardization of reality.

 

[LibertyTurns]

This is a horrific bastardization of reality.

It’s impossible to keep the politics out of this. There’s agendas behind the vitriol trying to rev up the respective bases. We’ve had most of everything shut down for 5 weeks & we’re on the same glide slope as before which quite frankly is about zero where I live. This seems to be a big city problem to me & we perhaps we need to keep NYC, etc locked down and get everyone else moving. Yes, the people with bah health problems need to stay quarantined as the old/infirm to limit exposure. We hear a lot about experts, but these are the same experts that failed to identify the spread of the virus & mortality rate, then miscalculated how many cases there would be & how many ventilators (for example) we needed, etc. They’re backtracking on where it all started, how it progressed and they’re resorted to weasel words to protect their professional reputations. There’s an abundance of revisionist history. Now all of sudden they’re experts on how to reopen a state? They got nothing & now we’re doing stuff to our country which is just flat out wrong. It’s amazing to me that in this great country we’ve got nobody capable of being unbiased & figuring this out. All our leaders, businessmen alike are too busy promoting their agendas instead of addressing the problem.

 

[MWBATL]

It’s impossible to keep the politics out of this. There’s agendas behind the vitriol trying to rev up the respective bases. We’ve had most of everything shut down for 5 weeks & we’re on the same glide slope as before which quite frankly is about zero where I live. This seems to be a big city problem to me & we perhaps we need to keep NYC, etc locked down and get everyone else moving. Yes, the people with bah health problems need to stay quarantined as the old/infirm to limit exposure. We hear a lot about experts, but these are the same experts that failed to identify the spread of the virus & mortality rate, then miscalculated how many cases there would be & how many ventilators (for example) we needed, etc. They’re backtracking on where it all started, how it progressed and they’re resorted to weasel words to protect their professional reputations. There’s an abundance of revisionist history. Now all of sudden they’re experts on how to reopen a state? They got nothing & now we’re doing stuff to our country which is just flat out wrong. It’s amazing to me that in this great country we’ve got nobody capable of being unbiased & figuring this out. All our leaders, businessmen alike are too busy promoting their agendas instead of addressing the problem.

I agree with much of what you say, especially your criticism of reliance on “experts” (although I personally don’t blame the experts, per se....I continue to suspect that they were misled initially by very poor data com8ng out of the WHO and China).

I do think the criticism of reopening strategies is not something I share. Many people fail to realize who much trouble many average Americans are in. Georgia has had enormous trouble changing their systems so they could pay unemployment benefits to gig workers. (I am not sure they have that sorted out yet) The Federal government is playing politics rather than refreshing the PPP funds (when they could have passed it a week ago and worked on those other “wants” later), so virtually every self-employed person has gotten no assistance from that program. So, if you are a hairdresser ,nail salon employee, personal trainer, sales rep, or many other people, you have gotten NOTH8NG for about 5 weeks now financially. I delayed paying my rent and got a threatening letter from a law firm fed-exed to me at the 15 days late milestone. I think many Americans are having SERIOUS economic problems and this is being ignored by everyone in the media (and perhaps by some on these message boards).

Given that reality, reopening becomes a case of trying to walk a tightrope between health risks of the virus and the serious risks of economic shutdown. There aren’t any safe answers there. Too many people act as if a continued lockdown has no risks, no costs, and doesn’t cost lives. It does.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I agree with much of what you say, especially your criticism of reliance on “experts” (although I personally don’t blame the experts, per se....I continue to suspect that they were misled initially by very poor data com8ng out of the WHO and China).

I do think the criticism of reopening strategies is not something I share. Many people fail to realize who much trouble many average Americans are in. Georgia has had enormous trouble changing their systems so they could pay unemployment benefits to gig workers. (I am not sure they have that sorted out yet) The Federal government is playing politics rather than refreshing the PPP funds (when they could have passed it a week ago and worked on those other “wants” later), so virtually every self-employed person has gotten no assistance from that program. So, if you are a hairdresser ,nail salon employee, personal trainer, sales rep, or many other people, you have gotten NOTH8NG for about 5 weeks now financially. I delayed paying my rent and got a threatening letter from a law firm fed-exed to me at the 15 days late milestone. I think many Americans are having SERIOUS economic problems and this is being ignored by everyone in the media (and perhaps by some on these message boards).

Given that reality, reopening becomes a case of trying to walk a tightrope between health risks of the virus and the serious risks of economic shutdown. There aren’t any safe answers there. Too many people act as if a continued lockdown has no risks, no costs, and doesn’t cost lives. It does.

it’s like people have totally forgotten that our strategy was to flatten the curve. Not to take it all the way down near zero. All we were trying to do is keep the hospitals from being overrun...and have a run rate underneath that so it’s sustainable, but also so people wouldn’t live in abject despair. Instead of being through this with a high peak and quick fall in a couple months, we would face several months to a year of it. But that was the strategy. I don’t remember anybody advocating to completely shut things down forever until the virus is almost gone. That’s an unsustainable approach. But now it appears a lot of people prefer that approach.

 

[slugboy]

Here is my simple take. You can't keep everyone locked down forever, but you can't open too quickly - either scenario gets you to incredibly bad places.
The only sane approach to me is to take a very measured approach. You have to open very slowly and methodically. Little bit at a time and monitor and be prepared to backtrack when cases start to rise.
It can get out of hand very quickly. See what is happening in Singapore right now (and they haven't had a low temperature below 77F in over a month).

My only complaint is that I believe Gov Kemp is re-opening too quickly. Previous data shows if you open before you really have it under control you are likely to see a spike higher than your previous spike. Note St. Louis and Denver on the below charts. They opened back up before they truly had it under control.

I'd argue that saying you are starting re-opening on the 2nd highest death total day of the year and one of the top 10 positive case days is not really ideal and not showing you are waiting to have it under control before you act. I just hope we don't have a large spike in mid-May. (Takes about 3 weeks for this to ramp up).
My disagreement is not really over the policies, it is over the timing and whether you have everything in place to keep Georgians safe.

A few economists looked at Kemp’s plan (11alive article on his plan at https://www.11alive.com/article/new...nment/85-08d428fe-79fb-4cfd-9bb8-b27ba10b1886). Most weren’t surprised by opening up, but by who he chose—manicurists, massage therapists, barbers, gyms, tattoo artists, etc.
On one hand, these jobs are often gig jobs that pay per session or job, and they’ve been hard hit by the shutdown. Jobs like these, and waiters and dishwashers and retail et al, usually don’t have nice employer-provided health insurance. So you have a combination of “you don’t come in and you don’t get paid” with “if you get too sick to come in, it’s on your own dime to get healthy”.
I wasn’t going to a massage therapist before, but I’m even less likely to go now, and I’m not even sure how a massage therapist would safely do their job.
One factor is that, at the current rate, the Georgia unemployment fund is going to go bankrupt in about two months if the current trends continue. Kemp’s order means that if those workers voluntarily stay home, they’re ineligible for unemployment benefits.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Silent, and potentially deadly

Looks like there is a proper mask on though. Are nudist colonies closed?

Sorry, this is all so sad and sick.

Here in Virginia, there is some attempt at reality. Hairdressers can go to people's houses or the people come to them at their house. The storefront can't be open with people congregating. Vets are open but come to the car to get the animal and deliver it back. Many small retail stores are open, but only have pickup after you called or connected ahead - Yogurt places, Tropical Smoothie, paint stores. Brewery is open but only with social distancing required and no seating. Yesterday we finished updating our Trust and medical directives, went to a bank with an appointment got in notarized and put in a safety deposit box. The local Whole Foods now requires masks, aisles are one way and a limited number of people are allowed in the store at any time. My wife is now doing her exercising every morning with her peeps on Zoom. I can go into my office and work if I feel the need, but have to wear a face mask and keep distance until I get to my cube. Fortunately I can easily work from home most days given a work computer I have. Have to muster every morning and report symptoms and where I'll be that day. But it's inefficient and I'm looking forward to getting back with people since we learn so much just talking with others.

That's the good part. The bad part is many people are out of work due to reduced demand for services. The service industry is the second largest part of our economy and most people just don't want to use those services while there is so much unknown. State, local and federal Governments can lift restrictions but they can't force people to shop. I really don't see any grand reopening but a ebb and flow of lifting and tightening restrictions. I don't see the "animal spirits" for shopping coming back the way they were.

Life is going to be different. We all need to find common ground rather than reasons for being divided. Let's make the best of this we can, with respect.