Coronavirus Thread

[FredJacket]

Looks like there is a proper mask on though. Are nudist colonies closed?

Sorry, this is all so sad and sick.

Here in Virginia, there is some attempt at reality. Hairdressers can go to people's houses or the people come to them at their house. The storefront can't be open with people congregating. Vets are open but come to the car to get the animal and deliver it back. Many small retail stores are open, but only have pickup after you called or connected ahead - Yogurt places, Tropical Smoothie, paint stores. Brewery is open but only with social distancing required and no seating. Yesterday we finished updating our Trust and medical directives, went to a bank with an appointment got in notarized and put in a safety deposit box. The local Whole Foods now requires masks, aisles are one way and a limited number of people are allowed in the store at any time. My wife is now doing her exercising every morning with her peeps on Zoom. I can go into my office and work if I feel the need, but have to wear a face mask and keep distance until I get to my cube. Fortunately I can easily work from home most days given a work computer I have. Have to muster every morning and report symptoms and where I'll be that day. But it's inefficient and I'm looking forward to getting back with people since we learn so much just talking with others.

That's the good part. The bad part is many people are out of work due to reduced demand for services. The service industry is the second largest part of our economy and most people just don't want to use those services while there is so much unknown. State, local and federal Governments can lift restrictions but they can't force people to shop. I really don't see any grand reopening but a ebb and flow of lifting and tightening restrictions. I don't see the "animal spirits" for shopping coming back the way they were.

Life is going to be different. We all need to find common ground rather than reasons for being divided. Let's make the best of this we can, with respect.

I'm going out on a limb... but I'm willing to bet nearly all of us are ready TODAY to adjust to this new normal. Wear masks. Social distancing. ...& here's the craziest one... continue to adjust as necessary.

The discourse from/thru our media & political elite is very counter-productive... to put it mildly.

 

[cyclejacket]

it’s like people have totally forgotten that our strategy was to flatten the curve. Not to take it all the way down near zero. All we were trying to do is keep the hospitals from being overrun...and have a run rate underneath that so it’s sustainable, but also so people wouldn’t live in abject despair. Instead of being through this with a high peak and quick fall in a couple months, we would face several months to a year of it. But that was the strategy. I don’t remember anybody advocating to completely shut things down forever until the virus is almost gone. That’s an unsustainable approach. But now it appears a lot of people prefer that approach.

The people who prefer that approach are the ones who aren't suffering financial loss and economic devastation. If you have $$$ still coming in then things are tolerable. Others are nearing despair and we are certain to have other medical consequences from the financial damage done to those who, in most cases, can least afford it.

 

[Wrecked]

Not so much
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...as-elderly-pay-price-for-coronavirus-strategy

They have a higher per capita death rate than the US and are starting to have serious problems in their nursing homes.

And they have a lower deaths per million than Belgium, Spain, France, the UK, Italy and the Netherlands. We can make numbers say whatever we want. And I don't want to make this argumentative but bottom line is their government expert took a different tack. He put his faith in the true flattening the curve principle. Take whatever steps necessary to avoid overwhelming the medical system, without causing additional economic and health problems brought on by the economic collapse a prolonged lockdown will impose. Sweden still took steps, just different ones (and I am in favor of lockdowns to save medical resources in some areas.) The area under the curve is not going to change without a vaccine or herd immunity (which Sweden is probably closer to now than us) exposure is just a matter of timing. If an area has truly flattened its curve, it should slowly open up. If not, stay locked down.

 

[684Bee]

That's the good part. The bad part is many people are out of work due to reduced demand for services. The service industry is the second largest part of our economy and most people just don't want to use those services while there is so much unknown. State, local and federal Governments can lift restrictions but they can't force people to shop. I really don't see any grand reopening but a ebb and flow of lifting and tightening restrictions. I don't see the "animal spirits" for shopping coming back the way they were.

Life is going to be different. We all need to find common ground rather than reasons for being divided. Let's make the best of this we can, with respect.

You are right. The economy will NOT come back with so many people choosing to not participate, and that will be the case for a while. Many people have been shell-shocked by this and now have something akin to PTSD. The psychological effects are huge.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

I'm going out on a limb... but I'm willing to bet nearly all of us are ready TODAY to adjust to this new normal. Wear masks. Social distancing. ...& here's the craziest one... continue to adjust as necessary.

The discourse from/thru our media & political elite is very counter-productive... to put it mildly.

My wife and I will be wearing masks, social distancing and avoiding larger gatherings for the foreseeable future till we get a handle on the facts of this virus.

I am so ready for college baseball to come back, even with no fans. Or any sport. Golf to me is akin to watching grass grow, but I'd watch that too. I'll go out on a limb too and say that Kemp's action has made GT football less likely this fall, especially with fans. But we can only hope and pray that I'm wrong again.

 

[FredJacket]

My wife and I will be wearing masks, social distancing and avoiding larger gatherings for the foreseeable future till we get a handle on the facts of this virus.

I am so ready for college baseball to come back, even with no fans. Or any sport. Golf to me is akin to watching grass grow, but I'd watch that too. I'll go out on a limb too and say that Kemp's action has made GT football less likely this fall, especially with fans. But we can only hope and pray that I'm wrong again.

Golf will probably be the first live sport to be available to the consumer. I can't wait!

 

[WreckinGT]

Then quit or find another job. Hardly anybody has died under the age of 60. My in-laws are both old and have pre-existing conditions. It doesn’t matter if states re-open any or not, they’re staying isolated until there is a vaccine. When you leave your house, you could get cancer or hit by a car or any number of things. The odds of someone under 60 (the vast majority of the workforce) dying of the Coronavirus is close to zero.

So we shouldn't have had a shut down in the first place, and neither should the rest of the world?

 

[RonJohn]

Golf will probably be the first live sport to be available to the consumer. I can't wait!

They announced that mid June the PGA will be restarting.

 

[684Bee]

So we shouldn't have had a shut down in the first place, and neither should the rest of the world?

This is a silly response.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

So we shouldn't have had a shut down in the first place, and neither should the rest of the world?

Welcome back Mr. Redirection!

Flattening the curve doesn't mean, and has never meant, reducing the outbreak to close to zero. All it means is keeping the hospital system traffic below their capacity. In other words to your question - no, nobody was implying that and that wasn't the question.

 

[bobongo]

Kemp’s order means that if those workers voluntarily stay home, they’re ineligible for unemployment benefits.

This.

 

[RamblinRed]

Red,
Thanks so much for taking a look at this and offering your insight and thoughts. You were able to highlight some areas in the article that I’m not very clear on and could improve. So I appreciate that very much. Although we have a difference of opinion on a few things, it’s refreshing to be able to see someone disagree in a respectful way. So I also appreciate that. Classic Tech man move! I’ll just reply to a few of your comments for clarity sake.

On natural herd immunity having never been developed before:
I will definitely need to be more clear in the article on that. We have to look no further than the 4 other non-SARS or MERS coronaviruses for examples of viruses to which humans have achieved natural herd immunity. Other such respiratory viruses would include human metapneumovirus and parainfluenza.

On having to have to redo the herd immunity:
Interesting thought but this would not be the case. The virus would become endemic like 4 of the 7 other coronaviruses already have and on repeat exposure most people’s immune systems would get a refresher course on how to kill the virus every few years with minimal to no symptoms depending on how much their immunity had waned.

On the difficulty of isolating 68 million Americans:
We’ve isolated 325 million for over a month. The group I’m talking about is the easiest 68 million to do so - not children and the majority not part of the work force. Also, most of this vulnerable group will probably be voluntarily isolating themselves for a few months regardless of what anyone says. Lastly, antibody testing will allow family, friends, and caretakers who have demonstrated immunity to be close to this vulnerable group.

It looks like in a lot of your other comments you use different statistical sources than I do. So, I’m not sure what else to say about that except that I would encourage interested readers on this forum to compare the sources and math between my article and your comments and form their own opinions.

Take care and stay safe!

FWIW 05, I thought it was a great read, even if I disagreed with the conclusion.

 

[GoldZ]

it’s like people have totally forgotten that our strategy was to flatten the curve. Not to take it all the way down near zero. All we were trying to do is keep the hospitals from being overrun...and have a run rate underneath that so it’s sustainable, but also so people wouldn’t live in abject despair. Instead of being through this with a high peak and quick fall in a couple months, we would face several months to a year of it. But that was the strategy. I don’t remember anybody advocating to completely shut things down forever until the virus is almost gone. That’s an unsustainable approach. But now it appears a lot of people prefer that approach.

I might have missed it when a LOT of people preferred to shut down forever or until the virus is gone. Got a few links?
Also, the odds are far from zero that nobody under 60 will die from premature reopening. C'mon. I also know that you know this, so........?

 

[LibertyTurns]

So we shouldn't have had a shut down in the first place, and neither should the rest of the world?

I think everyone knows the geographic areas that needed quarantine along with the demographics that needed it as well.

The hard parts are things like nursing homes. You got young nurses, assistants, staff, etc and a lot of feeble older folks. How you attack that problem is vexing.

The remainder of things, ie beaches are fairly simple. Yeah having big spring break beer bong and wet tshirt contests is riskier as you’ve got large crowds congregating. Some surfers, a boat ramp, etc has little to no danger and dealing with them in a similar fashion is nonsensical.

That being said if we give our nation the straight facts not agenda driven drivel, people will make solid personal decisions more often than not based on their level of risk they’re willing to tolerate.

Some people seem to think we can protect all the people all the time from any undesirable life events and that’s just not possible. Not here, not in Commie China, not in Canada, nowhere is that possible.

 

[WreckinGT]

Welcome back Mr. Redirection!

Flattening the curve doesn't mean, and has never meant, reducing the outbreak to close to zero. All it means is keeping the hospital system traffic below their capacity. In other words to your question - no, nobody was implying that and that wasn't the question.

No one is saying reduce the curve to zero. There is evidence of others lifting restrictions too early and it leading to a resurgence. If that happens then this was basically all for naught. If our attitude now is that people can die for a variety of reasons so we should stop worrying about it then im not sure why we shut down in the first place.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I might have missed it when a LOT of people preferred to shut down forever or until the virus is gone. Got a few links?
Also, the odds are far from zero that nobody under 60 will die from premature reopening. C'mon. I also know that you know this, so........?

The news is showing polls that say over 60% of the country doesn't want to gradually open the country yet.

"Also, the odds are far from zero that nobody under 60 will die from premature reopening."
I disagree, although I guess that depends on your definition of 'far from zero'. The CDC classifies deaths into various age buckets, so I can't actually see under 60. But I can see under 54. And that death rate of those who get Coronavirus is 0.002. (0.2%). Nearly all of those had severe pre-existing conditions too. So again, you're a working age person. You have a non-zero chance of getting cancer, getting hit by a car, getting the Flu, all kinds of things. You socially distance and protect yourself and use good hygiene...and still if you get the virus your chances of death are 0.002. And that's likely way too low since we're not catching all kinds of people who get it but never get tested because they are largely asymptomatic.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

No one is saying reduce the curve to zero. There is evidence of others lifting restrictions too early and it leading to a resurgence. If that happens then this was basically all for naught. If our attitude now is that people can die for a variety of reasons so we should stop worrying about it then im not sure why we shut down in the first place.

Respectfully, you're still not getting the main point of flattening the curve. Its a morbid topic, but it is what it is. If you go look up pictures of flattening the curve, its all about staying under the hospital system's capacity - its not trying to get the disease close to zero or even remotely close to that. We're trying to keep people out of abject financial despair while we buy time developing vaccines and medicines. We've learned enough about this disease now to know that all these people wanting to go back to work are not at any material chance of dying from it. The high high majority of people at risk are the ones not working anyway. Our GDP equates to $2 Trillion per month. Having to inject that into our economy from the government every month is unsustainable. We're already going to be around a $4 Trillion deficit as it stands right now without any further bailout/stimulus bills. And there will be more.

 

[RonJohn]

So we shouldn't have had a shut down in the first place, and neither should the rest of the world?

What was the main purpose of the shutdown? According to officials at the time, it was to "flatten the curve" and ensure that the medical facilities were not overused. According to the projections at the time, there would not be enough beds, ICU beds, or ventilators all across the country.

Currently, there are only a few places that the projections show facilities running out of ICU beds or hospital beds. I didn't see any state in the US that the projections show running out of ventilators. Georgia shows having twice the number of ICU beds needed and six times as many hospital beds as needed.

According to the epidemiologists when shutdowns were first implemented "flattening the curve" doesn't reduce the number of infections, it just pushes them out to a later time. It only keeps the peak from overwhelming medical resources. If we are well below that line, keeping shutdowns as strict as they are will only extend the length of time before resuming. Going back to the old normal would likely cause cases to overwhelm resources. It seams like the ideal would be to increase activity to the point that medical resources are exactly maxed out. (I am not advocating that because staying on that line would inevitably include crossing it at some points.) If nothing is done, then the length of the shutdown will cause extreme damage economically. If everything is lifted immediately, then the health resource strain, deaths, and economic damage will be extreme.

There is a balance needed to keep this disease below the resource limits and to keep the economy from totally being destroyed. I simply do not understand why this discussion has to be a politically driven all one-side or the other-side diatribe. Why can we not discuss what can be done within limits to minimize health care strain and open areas of the economy in ways that pose lower risk than a free for all?

 

[684Bee]

The news is showing polls that say over 60% of the country doesn't want to gradually open the country yet.

"Also, the odds are far from zero that nobody under 60 will die from premature reopening."
I disagree, although I guess that depends on your definition of 'far from zero'. The CDC classifies deaths into various age buckets, so I can't actually see under 60. But I can see under 54. And that death rate of those who get Coronavirus is 0.002. (0.2%). Nearly all of those had severe pre-existing conditions too. So again, you're a working age person. You have a non-zero chance of getting cancer, getting hit by a car, getting the Flu, all kinds of things. You socially distance and protect yourself and use good hygiene...and still if you get the virus your chances of death are 0.002. And that's likely way too low since we're not catching all kinds of people who get it but never get tested because they are largely asymptomatic.

Exactly. It's hard for me to understand why so many can't grasp this.

 

[RamblinRed]

And they have a lower deaths per million than Belgium, Spain, France, the UK, Italy and the Netherlands. We can make numbers say whatever we want. And I don't want to make this argumentative but bottom line is their government expert took a different tack. He put his faith in the true flattening the curve principle. Take whatever steps necessary to avoid overwhelming the medical system, without causing additional economic and health problems brought on by the economic collapse a prolonged lockdown will impose. Sweden still took steps, just different ones (and I am in favor of lockdowns to save medical resources in some areas.) The area under the curve is not going to change without a vaccine or herd immunity (which Sweden is probably closer to now than us) exposure is just a matter of timing. If an area has truly flattened its curve, it should slowly open up. If not, stay locked down.

One thing to keep in mind about Sweden. if you look at their mobility report compared to GA their reduction in mobility without an ordered stay in place is basically the same as GA with an ordered stay in place. So they are much more inclined to follow what they have been asked to do than many Americans would be. It would be a different matter if they didn't change their behavior. Does anybody think without the order we had our mobility numbers would have been anywhere close to what Sweden's are without orders?

The issue Sweden is going to have is their numbers have spiked up alot in the last 10-14 days. It looks like it is getting close to going out of control there. once the numbers start to spike it is hard to bring back down. They have the same population as GA but three times the land area as well so their population density is alot lower. That said their deaths are already more than twice GA and rising quickly.