Coronavirus Thread

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takethepoints said:
FIFY.

In fact, we probably had thousands of cases by then, especially since we let 40K people back from China after we "stopped travel". The initial big outbreak in Washington State was community spread.

Not, mind, that we had much choice about letting US citizens back into the country or anyplace to put them to isolate them for 2 weeks. All that came later. Still … there it is.
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Right, but that’s not the point. Nobody knew we had any problem of any scale.
 
RonJohn

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dtm1997 said:
Is this legit? If yes, good luck down there. I'd be real ****ing wary of any of those places tho.
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It is true. However, there are limitations. It isn't that all of those places are 100% open the way they were before. They have to limit capacity, maintain distancing, and disinfect repeatedly.

The one sentence description makes it sound like business as usual. The news reports about Tybee Island Beach used photos and video from before the pandemic. The picture used by most news organizations was first used by a Savannah local station the day that the beaches were opened, before the access was actually opened up. I think they didn't have actual video of people on the beach at that time, so they used stock video. There is a Facebook post about the images from Jacksonville beaches this past weekend that shows that the pictures are real, but lack perspective.

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These changes in Georgia might end up being too fast, but the media does a very poor job of explaining what is actually happening. Whether it makes Georgia look silly in the nation isn't as important to me as people in Georgia actually being informed about what the rules actually are. It is the responsibility of the press to inform people. One sentence remarks like the one you posted could have a gym owner actually believe that he has been cleared to operate the way he did before. Bad press could be the reason that some gym owner steps over the actual guidelines and does put people at risk.
 
GT_EE78

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> SC going for a partial reopen
COLUMBIA, SC (FOX Carolina) – South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster on Monday canceled his April 6 order calling for the following types of stores to close:
  • Furniture and home-furnishings stores
  • Clothing, shoe, and clothing-accessory stores
  • Jewelry, luggage, and leather goods stores
  • Department stores, with the exception of hardware and home-improvement stores
  • Sporting goods stores
  • Book, craft, and music stores
  • Flea markets
  • Florists and flower stores
The governor’s order on social distancing inside stores are still in place. No more than 5 people per 1,000 square-feet will be allowed in stores, or no more than 20 percent of the fire capacity, whichever number is lower.
Law enforcement will still be abler to break up any groups of 3 or more people in the interest of public health.
Those stores mentioned above can begin to reopen as of 5 p.m. Monday.
The governor said other businesses where close contact will take place, such as gyms, barber shops, and hair salons, are to remain closed at this time.
McMaster also canceled his executive order to close beaches in the state and returned decision-making power to local governments in those beach towns. Those beaches may begin reopening at the local governments' discretion beginning at noon on Tuesday.
https://www.foxcarolina.com/news/se...cle_358d7c20-8345-11ea-9d71-2747adeaa6f2.html
 

Boaty1

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GoldZ said:
Boaty, pls re-read RambligRed's and potatohead's posts on previous page. Thanks, Z
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I’ve already read it. I actually posted a reply but the site wouldn’t take it because it surpassed 11000 characters. Shockingly, Red’s assessment of the situation is not the only reasonable one to take regardless of how sure of himself he is.
 
dtm1997

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Boaty1 said:
I’ve already read it. I actually posted a reply but the site wouldn’t take it because it surpassed 11000 characters. Shockingly, Red’s assessment of the situation is not the only reasonable one to take regardless of how sure of himself he is.
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You typed up 11,000 characters and chose to trash it?

You should have let it rip in to two posts.
 

MWBATL

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Techster said:
Darwin is asking God if he can come back down to Earth and observe his theory in real time.
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This is gonna get real interesting......and hard to see how it avoids becoming political.

My personal trainer told me he could tell a person's politics based on their stand on the covid-19 virus, and that definitely seems true to me as well.
 
RonJohn

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dtm1997 said:
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Once again, that makes it sound like the choices are: Everyone stay locked in your house, or Everyone have a party like it's 1999.

If there are actual disagreements about how much or how little can be relaxed, then discussions about that should take place. The press should report what is actually happening and the points for and against. The way things are being reported, some groups of people are going to be militant that nobody should even walk their dog in a deserted field while some other groups of people are going to be militant that there should be zero social distancing.
 

JacketOff

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bwelbo said:
Anybody who wants to is welcome to quarantine themselves and stay home for as long as they want.
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*sigh* and if everyone would’ve just followed regulations and recommendations, the economy would be able to start reopening next week with very little push back, a la South Korea. It’s almost like, high testing numbers and quarantines work or something. Strange I know.
 

Wrecked

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potatohead said:
They're all regretting that approach now, and they're also catching allot of flack from their neighbors about the approach due to open borders in Europe. Really not too different than what we'll see here in the States which is why a strong, organized Federal response was so important. If Georgia behaves but Florida continues to screw around, what can Georgia possibly do with interstate travel that reinfects its population? This will be cyclical (infection, reinfect, open, close), at least until a vaccine is developed (year + away). Herd immunity works, its effectiveness is demonstrated by the near eradication of many viruses due to lack of successful hosts, but I just don't see how it would work with Covid-19 without a tremendous loss of life. It relies way too heavily on variables that have to do with human nature, and I find that a very poor bet 9/10 times.

Recent study on reinfection rate https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ersial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective

Doesn't sound like regret in that article.
 

RamblinRed

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Here is my simple take. You can't keep everyone locked down forever, but you can't open too quickly - either scenario gets you to incredibly bad places.
The only sane approach to me is to take a very measured approach. You have to open very slowly and methodically. Little bit at a time and monitor and be prepared to backtrack when cases start to rise.
It can get out of hand very quickly. See what is happening in Singapore right now (and they haven't had a low temperature below 77F in over a month).

My only complaint is that I believe Gov Kemp is re-opening too quickly. Previous data shows if you open before you really have it under control you are likely to see a spike higher than your previous spike. Note St. Louis and Denver on the below charts. They opened back up before they truly had it under control.

m_joc70085f3.png


I'd argue that saying you are starting re-opening on the 2nd highest death total day of the year and one of the top 10 positive case days is not really ideal and not showing you are waiting to have it under control before you act. I just hope we don't have a large spike in mid-May. (Takes about 3 weeks for this to ramp up).
My disagreement is not really over the policies, it is over the timing and whether you have everything in place to keep Georgians safe.
 
bobongo

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Way too fast. What we should have done is shut everything down for a month, and I mean really shut down - including no planes, trains, buses, except for those absolutely essential. Only absolutely essential businesses open. Had we done that, and stockpiled testing materials, and gotten a handle on what treatments work and what don't, and stockpiled the ones that do during that time, then we could think about starting to open up bit by bit. But as soon as the curve flattens and the spike becomes a plateau, here we are off to the races. We'll stay on the plateau for a while, then we'll start spiking up again. We are not ready.
 
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