Coronavirus Thread

[FredJacket]

Neither do I. It's behind a paywall

Try this... same story free source... I think.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id...eam-employees-participating-coronavirus-study

 

[RonJohn]

Try this... same story free source... I think.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id...eam-employees-participating-coronavirus-study

For implications, the study is to try to see how many people have already been infected. If a very large portion of the public already has immunity to the virus, then crowds at baseball games wouldn't be a problem and baseball could restart soon. (Even though the story stresses that MLB has absolutely no motive in participating other than public health.) It will be interesting to see how the peer review goes with the study once it is completed. I find it difficult to believe that using participants from one business will be able to achieve a representative sample of the US public.

 

[LibertyTurns]

It’s really demoralizing because I’m a commission based pay guy and I spent years working huge hours to get my numbers up to right at $100K, enough to get a decent car and house and make big payments on my student loans. Even started a 401(k) and college savings fund for my kid.

I don’t think this’ll wipe me out completely but it’s going to put a huge dent in my path to financial independence.

Fortunately I had my car almost paid off and have enough in a rainy day fund to last about 6 months with my mortgage, but almost no one else I know is in this spot so I’m watching people have to cobble along.

Life’s a marathon, not a 440. Hang in there, make hay when you can & always amass a reserve of cash to exploit situations when they’re most risky as you can reap the biggest payouts.

 

[CuseJacket]

Anybody seen the cash payments from the IRS yet or unemployment? My wife is a nurse, and saw her hours cut from 40 to 10, so she filed. It was accepted, but she filed on March 30th. So its been in the system for 15 days with no payment yet. Haven't seen anything from the IRS, which the news reported started sending out direct deposits a few days ago.

 

[CuseJacket]

 

[GTNavyNuke]

South Korea is closing in on 200 people having contracted the virus a second time, after having fully recovered the first time. Scientists over there are trying to figure out if its a new strain. As I understand it, there are already like a dozen strains of it.

Do you have a link? This matches the idea of the report I posted that some people didn't have the expected antibodies after "recovering".

 

[RonJohn]

I saw that story earlier, but I am very skeptical of it. According to that receipt, he had exactly $200 in his checking account and intentionally withdrew exactly $200 to make his balance $0 without checking the balance first. Only then did he notice that there was exactly $8,200,000 in his checking account. If the available balance was $8,200,0341.17 it would be believable.

 

[dtm1997]

I bank with Synovus and they sent a link to the document in docusign. I filled it out and it automatically went back to the bank the first time. Then I got a new on Sunday because the government had changed the form and I needed to do it again. I guess I would take the lack of feedback two ways. One they are OK with what you sent them and the next one should be an agreement with the SBA. Or they are overwhelmed and have not looked at it yet. Hopefully it is the first one.

It's very possible it's a combination of these.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Do you have a link? This matches the idea of the report I posted that some people didn't have the expected antibodies after "recovering".

Best I found
https://www.sciencealert.com/who-in...ered-covid-19-patients-testing-positive-again

And

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-immunity-to-covid-19-really-means/

We still have a lot to learn. But this is as important as finding an effective vaccine. In fact, the two are related.

 

[takethepoints]

DOJ Takes Action In Mississippi Drive-In Church Discrimination Case
The Department of Justice (DOJ) announced it will take action in a religious liberty case involving churches in Greenville, Mississippi, where police officers issued $500 tickets to church members who refused to leave the parking lot for a drive-in Easter church service.
AG BILL BARR: "Government may not impose special restrictions on religious activity that do not also apply to similar nonreligious activity."
https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/1...sissippi-drive-in-church-discrimination-case/

I bet they lose. We'll see.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

I bet they lose. We'll see.

You bet who loses?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

The US currently sits at 585,000 cases. The number to watch at end of day is 605,000. That would match yesterday's total of new cases. The further we stay below that number at the end of the day, the more of a trend downward we make in new cases.

Welp, yesterday was a new daily max in deaths and total new cases went back up from 25k to 29k. I get the deaths because we’re now 1 month past the vast majority of the shutdown, and that’s the lag on deaths. I still can’t wrap my head around all the new cases. Yes I get they could have been 100,000+ in a day had we not done anything. But damn - being shut down for a month and still getting this much transmission...

 

[GTRX7]

And, here is one of the problems with blaming the FDA and asking them to relax their standards and just get out of the way. This is the latest from the National Academy of Scientists on the progress of antibody screening (a function critical to opening back up correctly):

There are several layers of issues with the antibody tests. First, the US Food and Drug Administration relaxed its rules, and now companies can sell antibody tests without submitting validation data that shows they actually work.
The American Public Health Lab Association says that has resulted in "crappy" tests flooding the market. "It's like the wild, wild West out there -- or wild East," said association CEO Scott Becker, a reference to the fact that at least half the companies making these tests are in China.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

 

[RamblinRed]

FWIW, right now public opinion is heavily against re-opening the economy quickly
New poll has the following numbers

More than eight in 10 voters, 81 percent, say Americans “should continue to social distance for as long as is needed to curb the spread of coronavirus, even if it means continued damage to the economy.” Only 10 percent say Americans “should stop social distancing to stimulate the economy, even if it means increasing the spread of coronavirus.” Nine percent of voters have no opinion.

By a ratio of more than 2 to 1, voters say they are more concerned about “the public health impact of coronavirus, including the spread of the disease which would cause more deaths,” than they are about “the economic impact of coronavirus including the effect on the stock market and increased unemployment.” Overall, voters break toward the public-health impact, 64 percent to 29 percent — though it’s more narrow among Republicans, 51 percent to 43 percent.

Three in four, 75 percent, say it’s more important for the government to address the spread of the virus, while 17 percent say it’s more important for the government to manage the economy.

Just 37 percent would support allowing some Americans to return to work as long as the virus is still spreading, fewer than the 52 percent who would oppose Americans returning to work under those circumstances. And even fewer, 27 percent, would support allowing Americans under age 45 — who researchers say are less likely to die from Covid-19 — to work while older Americans continue to stay home.

But majorities do want returning workers to take significant precautions if they do go back: 76 percent would support their testing negative for the virus before being allowed to work again, 60 percent say they should take an antibody test to determine whether they’ve been exposed to the virus, and 76 percent support workers’ being required to wear face masks.

“Public trust in the safety of interacting with other Americans is a necessary precondition for being able to reignite the U.S. economy,” said John Leer, an economist for Morning Consult. “If Americans believe that their eating at restaurants or spending time in an airport jeopardizes their safety, loosening restrictions on businesses is not a sustainable economic solution.”

 

[RamblinRed]

This disappointing news came out last night

Spain has registered a daily increase of 1,220 active coronavirus cases -- the largest rise in more than a week -- according to Spanish Health Ministry data released Wednesday.

This jump brought the country’s total active cases to 88,201.

The setback follows more positive news earlier in the week.

On Tuesday, Spain saw its first ever decrease in active cases, as the numbers of deaths and recovered people outnumbered new diagnoses.

Germany's highest single day number of deaths: 285 people died of Covid-19 within 24 hours in the country on Tuesday. However, fewer new infections were recorded than in recent weeks, with cases rising by 2,486.

Study rules out coronavirus drug: A French study has found that hydroxychloroquine doesn't help coronavirus patients and was associated with heart complications.
(my take on this one- taken along with the news that at least 2 other studies with HCQ have been stopped in the last week due to side effects it is looking less likely that it will be a useful therapy. If HCQ isn't useful there are other drugs currently in trials as well - hopefully at least one of them eventually is a useful therapy)

Singapore recorded 334 new cases of the novel coronavirus on Tuesday -- none of them imported -- as the second wave continues to spread through the community.

The vast majority of cases were linked to known clusters in the country, according to the Ministry of Health.

The total number of new infections reported is slightly lower than the highest single day total of a day earlier, which was 386.


Mostly this just reminds me this is going to be a slow, bumpy road with stops and starts and probably setbacks.

 

[RamblinRed]

This chart is taken from a Morgan Stanley analysis document looking at getting back to work. (keep in mind based on current numbers and reports the numbers/dates set in this document appear to be optimistic. Right now the US is testing less than 150K per day and a report says testing has dropped 30% week over week so far this week so we are a long ways from testing 500K/wk as this document suggests we should be doing within the next 2 weeks). The analysis assumes the first wave of workers go back only after we hit 1M/wk in testing capability and that widespread anti-body testing is available. If those are not hit then their estimation for when the first wave of workers could go back would be pushed out further.

“Ultimately, we believe Governors will begin considering relaxing social distancing measures once cumulative mortality rates peak, which lags new cases by ~20 days. This means that some resumption in activity will occur in the coastal regional areas prior to the full US peak, followed by other states that have experienced a similar trajectory in peak new cases and cumulative mortality. Ultimately, based on our projections we do not expect to see significant resumptions in activity for ~70 days.”

 

[684Bee]

FWIW, right now public opinion is heavily against re-opening the economy quickly
New poll has the following numbers

More than eight in 10 voters, 81 percent, say Americans “should continue to social distance for as long as is needed to curb the spread of coronavirus, even if it means continued damage to the economy.” Only 10 percent say Americans “should stop social distancing to stimulate the economy, even if it means increasing the spread of coronavirus.” Nine percent of voters have no opinion.

By a ratio of more than 2 to 1, voters say they are more concerned about “the public health impact of coronavirus, including the spread of the disease which would cause more deaths,” than they are about “the economic impact of coronavirus including the effect on the stock market and increased unemployment.” Overall, voters break toward the public-health impact, 64 percent to 29 percent — though it’s more narrow among Republicans, 51 percent to 43 percent.

Three in four, 75 percent, say it’s more important for the government to address the spread of the virus, while 17 percent say it’s more important for the government to manage the economy.

Just 37 percent would support allowing some Americans to return to work as long as the virus is still spreading, fewer than the 52 percent who would oppose Americans returning to work under those circumstances. And even fewer, 27 percent, would support allowing Americans under age 45 — who researchers say are less likely to die from Covid-19 — to work while older Americans continue to stay home.

But majorities do want returning workers to take significant precautions if they do go back: 76 percent would support their testing negative for the virus before being allowed to work again, 60 percent say they should take an antibody test to determine whether they’ve been exposed to the virus, and 76 percent support workers’ being required to wear face masks.

“Public trust in the safety of interacting with other Americans is a necessary precondition for being able to reignite the U.S. economy,” said John Leer, an economist for Morning Consult. “If Americans believe that their eating at restaurants or spending time in an airport jeopardizes their safety, loosening restrictions on businesses is not a sustainable economic solution.”

I'm probably in the minority here with this opinion, but this just makes me sad that an overwhelming majority feels this way. I think it's more a function of the way this thing has been covered than the actual reality (I know I'm going to get jumped on now). Many people believe that this is almost like a certain death sentence, and I can't really blame them for feeling that way, with how this has been reported. Nevermind that many, many people have had mild cases and many, many more people have recovered versus have died.

Peoples psyches have really been shocked to the core with this, and it's going to be tough to bring some of them out of it.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I'm probably in the minority here with this opinion, but this just makes me sad that an overwhelming majority feels this way. I think it's more a function of the way this thing has been covered than the actual reality (I know I'm going to get jumped on now). Many people believe that this is almost like a certain death sentence, and I can't really blame them for feeling that way, with how this has been reported. Nevermind that many, many people have had mild cases and many, many more people have recovered versus have died.

Peoples psyches have really been shocked to the core with this, and it's going to be tough to bring some of them out of it.

It’s a bastardization of the numbers. I’m for both social distancing and opening back up the economy. They asked one question and then reported it under a different answer.

 

[FredJacket]

For implications, the study is to try to see how many people have already been infected. If a very large portion of the public already has immunity to the virus, then crowds at baseball games wouldn't be a problem and baseball could restart soon. (Even though the story stresses that MLB has absolutely no motive in participating other than public health.) It will be interesting to see how the peer review goes with the study once it is completed. I find it difficult to believe that using participants from one business will be able to achieve a representative sample of the US public.

I don't know about that. Based on the article, the study will include 10,000 samples from the MLB...including all socioeconomic backgrounds, races, genders..etc. It will capture samples from the largest metropolitan areas in the country when you get the staff of the organizations (top to bottom... I assume). It will capture players (no idea how many)... some of whom probably were out of the country in January (international players and others who were getting that last vacation trip in prior to spring training). I know you're taking a wait and see position on it. Me too. If the main intended purpose is to assess how many folks have been exposed (carried) the virus and unaware... that will probably be a good sample to figure that out.

As an aside, I believe MLB when they say they just wanted to cooperate for this as a public service.... but I have to wonder if the results will inform any course of action they are considering. Frankly, as I think about the 2 extreme answers (lots of positives v very few positives)... I wonder what either of those answers would mean IF you're pulling for MLB to get back to business. I guess you'd hope for a lot of positives (thinking there is more immunity).... but there is still the outstanding question regarding re-occurrence. That 'debate' is heating up now too.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Direct Deposit from the IRS showed up this morning.