Coronavirus Thread

[MWBATL]

One of the things I'm seeing more and more on social media is the geopolitical fallout of this virus. More specifically, how nations moving forward will treat China. It's starting to hit home how unreliable China is in terms of offering up information "for the greater good", and how dependant the world has become on China in the supply chain. China is proving that membership in NATO and WTO is a trophy to legitimize their way of governing, as opposed to a sincere effort of moving the world forward as a whole.

Of course, when this passes, and governments around the world will need to make tough economic decisions, will they be more than just tough talk when facing the possibility of paying the price for moving away from China?

The biggest government that faces that choice in the US.

We have allowed China to become our manufacturer and become dependent on the,. We could move that back to the USA, but the costs would be higher to the consumer. Wal-Mart would not be very attractive anymore.

Personally, I favor that approach, for national security reasons, not as much as economic reasons. But this pandemic has shown us China's true stripes. I believe it is worth the price.

 

[RonJohn]

See:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

And look at your favorite metric, in this case tests per million population. There you will see at once that the US, while giving a large number of tests, is not - repeat not - among the world leaders in the kind of surveillance that will be necessary to accommodate even a rolling withdrawal of restrictions without running the risk of making the infection rate explode. And that, of course, will make the death rate explode too.

Also, where do you get all this "abject despair" stuff? People seem to be coping fairly well and are expecting considerable aid in getting past this from the government. I've seen no opinion data showing anything resembling despair; if you have, let's see it. Now, if the checks get held up too long, that'll get people upset alright. But I suspect the administration knows that and will deliver as soon as the actual civil servants at Treasury begin to make the wheels work.

I'm pretty sure that most of us would rather not get sick then get back to work.

In most states, the stay at home orders were done quickly.(as a matter of how they were implemented, not saying that everybody issued an order immediately after the first case in Wuhan) Most of the orders, at least that I have seen, basically require business to shut down unless they are critical infrastructure. It would have been possible in the last couple of weeks to review things and let businesses that don't require personal interaction to reopen, such as storage facilities in Michigan that I previously posted about. With the way that critical retail businesses, such as grocery stores, are operating and how the infection rates are below what was expected, it might be possible to open non-critical retail operations with the same types of capacity and distancing requirements. There are many things that can be done differently than they currently are without going back to the way things were a few months ago.

With that said, there are many things that will either be delayed or never be the same. It will probably be a while before bars, nightclubs, entertainment venues, etc are opened. There are many people who have been able to continue working remotely. If there is an investment company in Manhattan that has been able to keep operating effectively with their employees working remotely, they must be seriously considering reducing their expensive office space and keeping many of their employees remote. Eventually things like bars, clubs, and venues will go back to normal. However there are things that will never go back to the same simply because businesses have had to adjust abruptly and have found effective ways of doing things differently.

 

[RonJohn]

Yep !

People who are retired will be greatly affected if the stimulus money causes inflation.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

In most states, the stay at home orders were done quickly.(as a matter of how they were implemented, not saying that everybody issued an order immediately after the first case in Wuhan) Most of the orders, at least that I have seen, basically require business to shut down unless they are critical infrastructure. It would have been possible in the last couple of weeks to review things and let businesses that don't require personal interaction to reopen, such as storage facilities in Michigan that I previously posted about. With the way that critical retail businesses, such as grocery stores, are operating and how the infection rates are below what was expected, it might be possible to open non-critical retail operations with the same types of capacity and distancing requirements. There are many things that can be done differently than they currently are without going back to the way things were a few months ago.

With that said, there are many things that will either be delayed or never be the same. It will probably be a while before bars, nightclubs, entertainment venues, etc are opened. There are many people who have been able to continue working remotely. If there is an investment company in Manhattan that has been able to keep operating effectively with their employees working remotely, they must be seriously considering reducing their expensive office space and keeping many of their employees remote. Eventually things like bars, clubs, and venues will go back to normal. However there are things that will never go back to the same simply because businesses have had to adjust abruptly and have found effective ways of doing things differently.

I just question why liquor stores and (in Colorado and other states) pot shops were allowed to remain open. Essential businesses? HA !!!

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

People who are retired will be greatly affected if the stimulus money causes inflation.

That is definitely true in general, but since all I ever buy now is groceries, and pay existing bills, it MIGHT not hit quite as bad.

 

[dtm1997]

More anecdotal evidence around the SBA program and how its collapsing under its own weight and bureaucracy:
https://theweek.com/speedreads/9080...l-businesses-2-million-loans-now-maxing-15000

That's a different program from the Paycheck Protection Program, which is being administered through the banks and what I was responding to yesterday.

 

[RonJohn]

I just question why liquor stores and (in Colorado and other states) pot shops were allowed to remain open. Essential businesses? HA !!!

The lawyer who posts on Youtube that I posted about, Steve Lehto, talked about a county in Michigan that passed an ordinance such that essential retail businesses were not allowed to sell "non-essential" items. Such as grocery stores could not sell books or magazines. They were required to have the "non-essential" items blocked.(Such as taping off individual items on an aisle that cannot be purchased) Under that ordinance, you could take the chance of being in the store, take the chance of interacting with the cashier, but could not spend 5 more seconds in the store to pick up a magazine off the checkout rack. Regulations like that concentrate too much on the rules and lose perspective on what is trying to be accomplished.

Essential businesses were allowed to keep running in every state that I know of that issued stay at home orders. That makes sense. If medical facilities shut down, the problem would be worse. If food production and distribution stop, the problem would be very much worse. However, by this point we should be looking not only at what is essential to be operating but also what can operate without increasing the public risk.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

That's a different program from the Paycheck Protection Program, which is being administered through the banks and what I was responding to yesterday.

You have to just chuckle sadly and sigh when you type that out. Duplicative, overlapping, yet different programs...all buckling and failing together like a slow motion train wreck.

 

[Milwaukee]

USA! USA! USA!

 

[dtm1997]

The biggest government that faces that choice in the US.

We have allowed China to become our manufacturer and become dependent on the,. We could move that back to the USA, but the costs would be higher to the consumer. Wal-Mart would not be very attractive anymore.

Personally, I favor that approach, for national security reasons, not as much as economic reasons. But this pandemic has shown us China's true stripes. I believe it is worth the price.

I've had clients looking in to onshoring and moving to other Asian countries over the past year, driven by the Chinese tariffs.

Not sure how much will be inspired, but would agree other countries beyond China will considered for manufacturing in the near future.

 

[dtm1997]

You have to just chuckle sadly and sigh when you type that out. Duplicative, overlapping, yet different programs...all buckling and failing together like a slow motion train wreck.

Thank you. I won't bother again.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

I've had clients looking in to onshoring and moving to other Asian countries over the past year, driven by the Chinese tariffs.

Not sure how much will be inspired, but would agree other countries beyond China will considered for manufacturing in the near future.

I certainly hope other countries will be considered, but most of that manufacturing should remain in or return to the US. If it ends up costing the consumer more if things are produced here, then it's time to figure out a way for that not to be the case. Getting into that would be too political for this thread though.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

The lawyer who posts on Youtube that I posted about, Steve Lehto, talked about a county in Michigan that passed an ordinance such that essential retail businesses were not allowed to sell "non-essential" items. Such as grocery stores could not sell books or magazines. They were required to have the "non-essential" items blocked.(Such as taping off individual items on an aisle that cannot be purchased) Under that ordinance, you could take the chance of being in the store, take the chance of interacting with the cashier, but could not spend 5 more seconds in the store to pick up a magazine off the checkout rack. Regulations like that concentrate too much on the rules and lose perspective on what is trying to be accomplished.

Essential businesses were allowed to keep running in every state that I know of that issued stay at home orders. That makes sense. If medical facilities shut down, the problem would be worse. If food production and distribution stop, the problem would be very much worse. However, by this point we should be looking not only at what is essential to be operating but also what can operate without increasing the public risk.

I agree that not being able to purchase magazines and books in a store that is primarily dedicated to actually essential items (grocery stores for instance) is stupid. But that still doesn't explain why liquor stores and pot shops are considered essential.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Thank you. I won't bother again.

Huh? I think you misinterpreted what I was saying. That wasn’t intended to be a personal attack or anything about you at all. It was a sad commentary on our current state of affairs.

 

[kg01]

That's a different program from the Paycheck Protection Program, which is being administered through the banks and what I was responding to yesterday.

What's been your experience, so far, with the PPP? I've been trying to gauge clients' experience with it. I know the bankers are swamped. I'm waiting to see what the response times are. How fast apps are processed. How fast money is disbursed, etc.

 

[684Bee]

What's been your experience, so far, with the PPP? I've been trying to gauge clients' experience with it. I know the bankers are swamped. I'm waiting to see what the response times are. How fast apps are processed. How fast money is disbursed, etc.

I applied for it and finished everything up on Wednesday. It was all done online through SmartBizLoans. My rep was very responsive and helpful. Now, it has supposedly been kicked back to my bank (Cadence) and I'm not really getting any good answers regarding an update.

 

[kg01]

I applied for it and finished everything up on Wednesday. It was all done online through SmartBizLoans. My rep was very responsive and helpful. Now, it has supposedly been kicked back to my bank (Cadence) and I'm not really getting any good answers regarding an update.

Thanks.

The bank folk I know are all hands on deck with these. Pretty much everything else is on the back burner. Really strange. Now would be a good time to engage in some shenanigans with the bank 'cause they're not paying attention.

Hope you get the answers you want soon.

 

[684Bee]

Thanks.

The bank folk I know are all hands on deck with these. Pretty much everything else is on the back burner. Really strange. Now would be a good time to engage in some shenanigans with the bank 'cause they're not paying attention.

Hope you get the answers you want soon.

Thank you. I appreciate that. I know this was all dumped in their lap quickly and with ever-changing guidance, so it's tough. I'm not super frustrated or worried at the moment. It sounds like we are all in pretty much the same boat right now. I haven't heard of anyone else getting money yet, either.

 

[takethepoints]

Since economic decline (coming, no matter what) and "re-opening" the economy (sorta) have been a subject here, how about a paper that looks at the data and models the consequences of different re-opening scenarios? See:

https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Scherbina-determining-the-optimal-duration-WP_1.pdf

Scherbina (great name, btw) has run models that use different infection rates. We won't be able to actually determine that due to a lack of widespread testing, but we can kinda do it by hospitalization rates. Assuming that every COVID-19 infection leads to one more (R = 1), that means 30 - 34 weeks shutdown and so on down to R=.5 for seven or eight weeks. In short, we aren't there yet. This paper does a good cost/benefit analysis too, especially in estimating the costs associated with re-opening too soon.

This isn't definitive by any means; we won't see research about that until way after this whole business is over. It's probably as good a benchmark as we'll get for now, however.

 

[dtm1997]

Huh? I think you misinterpreted what I was saying. That wasn’t intended to be a personal attack or anything about you at all. It was a sad commentary on our current state of affairs.

I don't think it's a personal attack on me.

The idea of chuckling about how the Government is stepping in to prevent massive business failures and even higher unemployment without expecting some bumps along the way seems a little misplaced.

I'm not trying to rally around gov't intervention, but there are a lot of people working really hard in the private sector to distribute (banks) or receive (small businesses) these funds in order to save jobs.

If you want to chuckle about something, I'll post some ridiculous TikToks that will make you shake your head.