MWBATL
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Fauci and Brix spoke about that tonight, essentially saying that as far as they are concerned it is not settled science yet....
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If you read it, that’s not exactly true. They’re not using data in Wuhan. They’re using data and travel information from back before any awareness and surveillance and quarantine activities took place. Yes there are limits to that, but this is not something they depended on collaboration with the Chinese for, and took great pains to make sure it wasn’t polluted by remediation activities.
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They are right. This study isn’t the holy grail. But those 2 are the same ones who said we didn’t need to wear masks and then changed their mind. They said 1 week ago a best case scenario was 100,000-200,000 deaths and now said it might be 1/2 to 1/3rd of that. So they might have an internal bias if they are self aware.
LibertyTurns
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It’s about as exact as guessing where a hurricane makes landfall, where your company’s Engineering New Product Design Group comes in relative to budget & schedule or how close your Sales & Marketing Team calculates demand. Maybe as accurate as your General Contractor’s guestimate of your house renovation or how much your wife is going to spend on Christmas presents for the kids. Yeah, about that accurate.
LibertyTurns
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Hey, at least some progress might be made out of all of this.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/661221/china-dogs-companions-new-guidelines-animal-trade/
https://www.the-sun.com/news/661221/china-dogs-companions-new-guidelines-animal-trade/
Supersizethatorder-mutt
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French President Macron visited the clinic in Marseilles where the doctor studying the efficacy or hydroxchloroquine is being studied. The doctor gave Macron the results of a new study on 1,061 patients showing a 91 percent success rate.
https://www.france24.com/en/2020040...ille-doctor-behind-virus-cure-touted-by-trump
https://www.france24.com/en/2020040...ille-doctor-behind-virus-cure-touted-by-trump
takethepoints
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Another good post from The Incidental Economist. See:
https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/how-will-we-know-when-its-time-to-reopen-the-nation/
This has 4 basic criteria for when we might open a particular state or locality for at least some business. A quick look will show why I doubt we will be able to meet these criteria. They depend on a robust system of hospital surveillance based on 750K tests a day and constant monitoring of people at work. I suspect that when the virus begins to peak, we will scale back production of tests and try to go back to "normal". This is one reason why I expect a resurgence of the disease in September/October and a subsequent lockdown. If we do pay attention to the criteria and work to get back some economic activity as the data dictate, we could see some revival by fall.
But, frankly, I wouldn't take any heavy bets on this. The main reason is that I doubt that the uptick in economic activity from a partial letup will be enough to satisfy some people we know. If we aren't careful we could reach that 200K death ceiling we're afraid of. But let's hope I'm wrong and we handle this more rationally.
https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/how-will-we-know-when-its-time-to-reopen-the-nation/
This has 4 basic criteria for when we might open a particular state or locality for at least some business. A quick look will show why I doubt we will be able to meet these criteria. They depend on a robust system of hospital surveillance based on 750K tests a day and constant monitoring of people at work. I suspect that when the virus begins to peak, we will scale back production of tests and try to go back to "normal". This is one reason why I expect a resurgence of the disease in September/October and a subsequent lockdown. If we do pay attention to the criteria and work to get back some economic activity as the data dictate, we could see some revival by fall.
But, frankly, I wouldn't take any heavy bets on this. The main reason is that I doubt that the uptick in economic activity from a partial letup will be enough to satisfy some people we know. If we aren't careful we could reach that 200K death ceiling we're afraid of. But let's hope I'm wrong and we handle this more rationally.
takethepoints
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I think this article is a fine example of what we should avoid taking seriously. The doctor in question gave Macron "… a new study 1061 patients showing a 91% success rate."
How was the study conducted? <Crickets chirping>
Who were the 1061 patients and what was their clinical condition? <Long moan of the whistle of the Texas Special in the distance>
What constituted "success"? <Katydids in the trees>
Were there any controls? <Babbling brook in the meadow>
Or, short points, absolutely nothing that would allow us tell whether the replication failure of this doctor's original research had been cured by more rigorous work. Let's wait for the trials - they are conducting them - and then either applaud or sigh in resignation.
I'm pulling for applause myself. If not for this drug, then for something.
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Supersizethatorder-mutt
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At least French media is paying attention to it and not decrying it all as a death verdict the way the US media does. And at least the liberal Macron is also taking it into consideration, which is something nobody on the left in this country is willing to do.
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It won’t last that long. We can’t put the country into abject despair for that long to protect such a small minority of people. The general population will demand strong quarantine protection for those people and to let everyone else live their lives.
My gut tells me some parts of the country will open up with social distancing, wearing masks, and what-not...and by the time any resurgence comes we’ll have a better read on vaccines and medicines.
Everyone should remember that we now have the best testing in the world. So if our testing isn’t enough, nobody else’s is either. This isn’t an American problem. The rest of the world won’t put up with this either. The health issues and despair from just 30 days will lead to uprisings and revolt if they try to hold this for longer than say another month.
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More things being understood with this virus every day. Very interesting information around immune system responses.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/haywir...d-in-coronavirus-deaths-treatment-11586430001
https://www.wsj.com/articles/haywir...d-in-coronavirus-deaths-treatment-11586430001
684Bee
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so that would make sense why hydroxychloroquine would help, right? Isn’t it an immunosuppressant?
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China takes a steaming dump on the world yet again.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/661834/giant-asian-hornets-kill-single-sting-invade-virus-us/
Maybe the hidden blessing is we have enough people around at home to recognize these buggers and try and ramp them down.
A 2 inch hornet, LOL.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/661834/giant-asian-hornets-kill-single-sting-invade-virus-us/
Maybe the hidden blessing is we have enough people around at home to recognize these buggers and try and ramp them down.
A 2 inch hornet, LOL.
LibertyTurns
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Everyone’s applying tightly controlled, well designed testing standards to someone who’s being innovative and swimming against the tide because he was tired of his patients all croaking. Now there may be flaws with his approach, but why would we not consider factual info such as this (91% success rate) when the alternative (70% failure rate) is very poor?
Kill with one sting? Nah, we'll never know the true death rate 'cause most people probably die of fright upon seeing a 2" hornet.
If that happens, do you put "HORNET" as the COD or no?
GT_EE78
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I think your comments were a fine example of what we should avoid taking seriously.
i doubt they used "Babbling Undermining Chirping Katydids of East Texas Specials" (did i do that right? )
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Kill with one sting? Nah, we'll never know the true death rate 'cause most people probably die of fright upon seeing a 2" hornet.
If that happens, do you put "HORNET" as the COD or no?
CLEARLY, they should be listed as a COVID-19 death.
MWBATL
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Problem here is that no one has much credibility in this whole matter. The scientists and the science are what I respect deeply. However, the modeling is now being shown to have badly overestimated the size and nature of the pandemic. The field hospital in Seattle that was erected, saw no patients at all, and is now being dismantled is one aspect of that. The estimates that scared everyone about the need for beds and ventilators in NYC are another (it has turned out that Trump was factually correct that Cuomo did NOT need 30,000 ventilators.)
I want more data and more clinical trials. My understanding in listening to Fauci is that numerous such trials are underway. By the time this re-surfaces next Fall, we should know MUCH more about how to treat it (since a vaccine will still not be available yet) and we should be able to hold down mortality rates significantly based on that.
I think we have now seen the worst of this virus and will see steady improvement, with a few blips, from here on.
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