Coronavirus Thread

[GT_EE78]

Hmmmmmm. After reading these projections, the level of "public acceptance" might change. See:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/...action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

The number of deaths, given various "attack rates" and less effective social distancing, are quite similar to the estimates at The Incidental Economist I posted here last week (I think). As with these estimates, the assumption is that the virus will get a good run at most of the population. If we stop that, then the number of cases will decrease and, probably, rapidly.

But make no mistake: if we find ourselves dealing with hundreds of thousands of deaths social distancing like we see today will look like a kindergarten picnic. Let's hope that we get those anti-virals up to speed and distributed asap. Right now I think that's our best bet.

NYT is fake news. always biased

 

[takethepoints]

NYT is fake news. always biased

Read the story. They got some of the slides from the CDC meeting and confirmed them with doctors in attendance. There's nothing "fake" about this. Especially since the CDC disease models confirm these estimates:

https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/what-if-we-do-develop-covid-19-antivirals/

Let's hope it doesn't come to this, but let's also admit that it might and act accordingly.

 

[ramblinwreckguru]

Still only 10 serious/critical corona virus cases in our country according to the worldometer. There sure is an immense amount of extrapolation going on in this thread.

 

[RonJohn]

Hmmmmmm. After reading these projections, the level of "public acceptance" might change.

No, the public acceptance will not change. Being told that you cannot go 200 miles to see your kids/grandkids will be acceptable? Being told that news organizations cannot travel to collect and disseminate news will be acceptable? If bloggers are allowed to travel then everyone with a Twitter or TikTok account will claim to be a journalist. If only "accredited" organizations are allowed to travel, who decides who is accredited? Is MSNBC? If Fox? I Michael Moore? Is Alex Jones?

If people were asked to stay home for some amount of time, many probably would. If infected people or suspected to be infected people are forced to quarantine, most people will accept that. If the government tries to use force to enforce a mass quarantine, or general isolation, it would face a lot of opposition from the public. Libertarians would object for civil liberties reasons. Republicans would believe that the government is being too intrusive. (actually the same as civil liberties, but they wouldn't see it that way.) Democrats would oppose civil liberties intrusions, and would also suspect that the President was going to use force to disrupt the November elections.

Many churches will suspend services if they are asked to for health reasons. Some won't. Many businesses will take actions to limit person to person contact, as many have already. Many people will stay mostly at home if they are asked to and given good reason to. Some won't. If it went as far as martial law, then when government demands, and threats of force become involved, people will not tolerate it. Maybe for a very short period, but not for long. Also, the police are local, and the national guard is made of people from the community. If a national guard member was told to shoot a person from his hometown because that person is out trying to gather food for his kids, he won't do it. The government would lose control of enforcement mechanisms. There are measures between allowing people to do anything and using weapons to keep them inside their homes. However, compared to many other countries people across the political spectrum have very little tolerance for the government telling them what they must do.

EDIT: Here is an article that does a pretty good job of discussing mass quarantines in the US. I haven't encountered the author before, but I think the article is written pretty well.
https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20200310.824973/full/

 

[dtm1997]

 

[takethepoints]

Still only 10 serious/critical corona virus cases in our country according to the worldometer. There sure is an immense amount of extrapolation going on in this thread.

That's what you do at this stage. Let's hope the more extreme results don't come to pass. That'll largely be up to us, until the anti-virals come online.

Also, I think we can take it as read that those who are dead were "serious/critical" before they passed on.

 

[RonJohn]

Not related to OJ, but golf. I don't understand the need to cancel PGA events. If spectators are not allowed, then you have a pair of golfers and their caddies. The golfer and caddie are the only ones who need to be close, and they can be far enough apart to not spread. There is also plenty of time between striking the ball and striking the next ball for the golfer to use hand sanitizer several times. I suppose it is so the golfers don't have to stay in hotels and because international golfers are being limited in ability to come and go?

 

[takethepoints]

No, the public acceptance will not change. Being told that you cannot go 200 miles to see your kids/grandkids will be acceptable? Being told that news organizations cannot travel to collect and disseminate news will be acceptable? If bloggers are allowed to travel then everyone with a Twitter or TikTok account will claim to be a journalist. If only "accredited" organizations are allowed to travel, who decides who is accredited? Is MSNBC? If Fox? I Michael Moore? Is Alex Jones?

If people were asked to stay home for some amount of time, many probably would. If infected people or suspected to be infected people are forced to quarantine, most people will accept that. If the government tries to use force to enforce a mass quarantine, or general isolation, it would face a lot of opposition from the public. Libertarians would object for civil liberties reasons. Republicans would believe that the government is being too intrusive. (actually the same as civil liberties, but they wouldn't see it that way.) Democrats would oppose civil liberties intrusions, and would also suspect that the President was going to use force to disrupt the November elections.

Many churches will suspend services if they are asked to for health reasons. Some won't. Many businesses will take actions to limit person to person contact, as many have already. Many people will stay mostly at home if they are asked to and given good reason to. Some won't. If it went as far as martial law, then when government demands, and threats of force become involved, people will not tolerate it. Maybe for a very short period, but not for long. Also, the police are local, and the national guard is made of people from the community. If a national guard member was told to shoot a person from his hometown because that person is out trying to gather food for his kids, he won't do it. The government would lose control of enforcement mechanisms. There are measures between allowing people to do anything and using weapons to keep them inside their homes. However, compared to many other countries people across the political spectrum have very little tolerance for the government telling them what they must do.

EDIT: Here is an article that does a pretty good job of discussing mass quarantines in the US. I haven't encountered the author before, but I think the article is written pretty well.
https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20200310.824973/full/

All true. But probably not to the extent you think. If the virus peaks then comes under control, then we can breath a bit easier. That's what happened in Singapore; drastic shutdown of the whole island at first, but pretty much life as usual now. For right now, however, I have more faith in the survival instincts of the population then you do. But, hey, those who don't pay attention to restrictions will draw the attention of a much more ruthless adversary then some jive government. Their choice, their consequences.

 

[GT_EE78]

Read the story. They got some of the slides from the CDC meeting and confirmed them with doctors in attendance. There's nothing "fake" about this. Especially since the CDC disease models confirm these estimates:

https://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/what-if-we-do-develop-covid-19-antivirals/

Let's hope it doesn't come to this, but let's also admit that it might and act accordingly.

just panic mongering. Sure, it's theoretically possible that things here will be 100x worse than communist china, but it's far more likely that aliens have been breeding with CDC and NYT.

 

[RonJohn]

All true. But probably not to the extent you think. If the virus peaks then comes under control, then we can breath a bit easier. That's what happened in Singapore; drastic shutdown of the whole island at first, but pretty much life as usual now. For right now, however, I have more faith in the survival instincts of the population then you do. But, hey, those who don't pay attention to restrictions will draw the attention of a much more ruthless adversary then some jive government. Their choice, their consequences.

The article I linked to had more in it also. It asked if it is ethical to mass quarantine an entire metro population when not everyone in that population is infected. It pointed out that China is much more able to accomplish enforced mass quarantine and isolation. They have extreme surveillance systems with face recognition. They have a large police and public informant force. They have supplies and systems in place to deliver food and supplies to quarantined areas. The US has none of that.

Martial law is an extremely bad idea. If it were implemented to enforce a shutdown in the US, when would it end? If the government controls the movement of people(including press), and thus the delivery of information, what if the President decided to just keep it going? What if this President rescinded it at the right time, but a future President of another party implements it in a situation that looks similar, and then decides not to rescind it. You can use the force of government to quarantine individuals who pose a risk to others, and the public will support that. However, allowing the government to take away freedoms of speech, religion, press, and assembly because people are scared is the death of freedom, which in my opinion for the US is more scary than this virus.

EDIT: I am not suggesting that people should ignore this. I have been stating that people should follow the CDC guidelines for infectious respiratory illnesses since the beginning. People were ignoring CDC suggestions. Now people are buying more toilet paper than they need and more bread than they can eat before it goes bad. People should not let fear dictate their actions so far that they allow freedom to end.

 

[Milwaukee]

Not related to OJ, but golf. I don't understand the need to cancel PGA events. If spectators are not allowed, then you have a pair of golfers and their caddies. The golfer and caddie are the only ones who need to be close, and they can be far enough apart to not spread. There is also plenty of time between striking the ball and striking the next ball for the golfer to use hand sanitizer several times. I suppose it is so the golfers don't have to stay in hotels and because international golfers are being limited in ability to come and go?

They cancelled for the same reason most sports cancelled, they don’t want to play without spectators. That’s what was reported on golf channel anyway.

 

[LibertyTurns]

We’re up to 46 pages & interesting after massive failures by entrenched government entities & the best solution was Executive intervention to remove government obstacles, here we are discussing government action on a massive scale. We know how that all turns out- colossal failure.

What’s needed or what was needed is:

Declaration of a National Emergency- why? Well it tells federal and state governments not to follow the idiotic laws they have preventing proper action, removes moronic government roadblocks, pushes the incompetent government bureaucrats out of the way and infuses action teams with qualified business professional in good old fashioned American successful style.

Here’s some specific things that happened as a result:
1) Dumb regulations are able to be waived by HHS: eliminates wasteful testing & medical procedures to free up resources; eradicated stupid rules mandating sizes of ERs, office space, etc so hospitals can use facilities for what they need instead of complying with crap like that, etc
2) Cut through massive, illogical bureaucratic red tape preventing things like test kits being developed & provided to medical professionals

You have to ask yourself, why does the best country in the world have such crappy systems, rules & regulations, etc that requires Executive action to fix? Why are private businesses able to swoop in & solve these problems with relative ease when the government schmucks with all the power & resources they want completely fail at every turn? Well the answer is government ineptitude, fraud, sleazy political maneuvers for personal gain, etc. We have a rotten system & need a major dismantling to get us back to what made our country great not more crippling government.

 

[GT_EE78]

We’re up to 46 pages & interesting after massive failures by entrenched government entities & the best solution was Executive intervention to remove government obstacles, here we are discussing government action on a massive scale. We know how that all turns out- colossal failure.

What’s needed or what was needed is:

Declaration of a National Emergency- why? Well it tells federal and state governments not to follow the idiotic laws they have preventing proper action, removes moronic government roadblocks, pushes the incompetent government bureaucrats out of the way and infuses action teams with qualified business professional in good old fashioned American successful style.

Here’s some specific things that happened as a result:
1) Dumb regulations are able to be waived by HHS: eliminates wasteful testing & medical procedures to free up resources; eradicated stupid rules mandating sizes of ERs, office space, etc so hospitals can use facilities for what they need instead of complying with crap like that, etc
2) Cut through massive, illogical bureaucratic red tape preventing things like test kits being developed & provided to medical professionals

You have to ask yourself, why does the best country in the world have such crappy systems, rules & regulations, etc that requires Executive action to fix? Why are private businesses able to swoop in & solve these problems with relative ease when the government schmucks with all the power & resources they want completely fail at every turn? Well the answer is government ineptitude, fraud, sleazy political maneuvers for personal gain, etc. We have a rotten system & need a major dismantling to get us back to what made our country great not more crippling government.

drain the Swamp!

 

[Techster]

 

[GCdaJuiceMan]

Me, after the extra sriracha I decided to put on my food last night.

 

[Techster]

It's been moved to May 5th....

Mexicans finally relented to building that wall so they can keep coronavirus infected Americans out of Mexico. Cinco De Mayo is no longer needed...

LOL...the jokes write themselves...

 

[Milwaukee]

We’re up to 46 pages & interesting after massive failures by entrenched government entities & the best solution was Executive intervention to remove government obstacles, here we are discussing government action on a massive scale. We know how that all turns out- colossal failure.

What’s needed or what was needed is:

Declaration of a National Emergency- why? Well it tells federal and state governments not to follow the idiotic laws they have preventing proper action, removes moronic government roadblocks, pushes the incompetent government bureaucrats out of the way and infuses action teams with qualified business professional in good old fashioned American successful style.

Here’s some specific things that happened as a result:
1) Dumb regulations are able to be waived by HHS: eliminates wasteful testing & medical procedures to free up resources; eradicated stupid rules mandating sizes of ERs, office space, etc so hospitals can use facilities for what they need instead of complying with crap like that, etc
2) Cut through massive, illogical bureaucratic red tape preventing things like test kits being developed & provided to medical professionals

You have to ask yourself, why does the best country in the world have such crappy systems, rules & regulations, etc that requires Executive action to fix? Why are private businesses able to swoop in & solve these problems with relative ease when the government schmucks with all the power & resources they want completely fail at every turn? Well the answer is government ineptitude, fraud, sleazy political maneuvers for personal gain, etc. We have a rotten system & need a major dismantling to get us back to what made our country great not more crippling government.

Take this **** to another thread please.

 

[Milwaukee]

LOL...the jokes write themselves...

I have friends looking to take advantage of the dirt cheap all inclusive vacations right now; I’m telling them exactly what you just shared. I think all of this is stupid panic but I’m not leaving the country at all because you risk getting caught on the wrong side of a quarantine. 2 weeks vacation in Cabo is fantastic until it turns into 2 months stuck in Mexico and you’re not on a resort.

 

[dtm1997]

 

[takethepoints]

We’re up to 46 pages & interesting after massive failures by entrenched government entities & the best solution was Executive intervention to remove government obstacles, here we are discussing government action on a massive scale. We know how that all turns out- colossal failure.

What’s needed or what was needed is:

Declaration of a National Emergency- why? Well it tells federal and state governments not to follow the idiotic laws they have preventing proper action, removes moronic government roadblocks, pushes the incompetent government bureaucrats out of the way and infuses action teams with qualified business professional in good old fashioned American successful style.

Here’s some specific things that happened as a result:
1) Dumb regulations are able to be waived by HHS: eliminates wasteful testing & medical procedures to free up resources; eradicated stupid rules mandating sizes of ERs, office space, etc so hospitals can use facilities for what they need instead of complying with crap like that, etc
2) Cut through massive, illogical bureaucratic red tape preventing things like test kits being developed & provided to medical professionals

You have to ask yourself, why does the best country in the world have such crappy systems, rules & regulations, etc that requires Executive action to fix? Why are private businesses able to swoop in & solve these problems with relative ease when the government schmucks with all the power & resources they want completely fail at every turn? Well the answer is government ineptitude, fraud, sleazy political maneuvers for personal gain, etc. We have a rotten system & need a major dismantling to get us back to what made our country great not more crippling government.

The answer is one word: Thalidomide. The European countries and Japan let the drug be used extensively for a bunch of purposes, including dealing with nausea during pregnancy. And, sure enough, the drug works to this day - it's still widely used - for a bunch of complaints including controlling nausea. Problem = it also causes drastic birth defects in fetuses. This was shrugged off by other countries as a result of other factors and the FDA came under extreme pressure to approve the drug. They did approve it for some purposes, but not all. When the birth defects became conclusively linked to Thalidomide, the FDA - and the pharmacologist who demanded more testing - looked like what it was, an agency that didn't just bend over when it got some pressure and put the safety of the people first. For why we need the FDA, see:

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/11/8145...-jim-bakker-for-selling-fake-coronavirus-cure

And that's why we needed a declaration of emergency about a month ago. In most cases, it is better to demand high levels of safety and quality before any medical procedure is approved. But, as you say, sometimes it is better to get the ball rolling at once. Too bad we had to wait until yesterday.

And one more thing (as Steve used to say): one of the reasons we have shortages of hospital space, nurses and staff today is because we allowed so much concentration of hospitals in private hands. The hospital corporations wanted to reduce costs to bump up profits. The best way to do that was to reduce the amount spent on in-patient care (i.e. beds, rural hospitals) and reduce the number of skilled personnel (i.e. nurses, medical support) needed. Problem = what if you get a surge in demand for hospital beds and care? Corporate answer = we'll cross that bridge when we come to it; right now we're smelling all that sweet, sweet cash. We all know the way out of this. All we have to do is what every other advanced country in the world has done.