Coronavirus Thread

[jwsavhGT]

What if the person picking the groceries and delivering the groceries has the virus?!!!

Oh hell, we all have to die eventually! (Too soon?)

 

[Deleted member 2897]

804 in the US now. Richmond area code in the house. Can we get to the ambulance-chasing lawyer phone number 999 by tomorrow?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Walmart and some others offer curb side pickup. You order and pay for everything online, drive to a pickup location at an appointment time, and they load everything in your car. You wouldn't have to have any contact except unlocking your trunk/hatch.

So the workers gather all your produce and groceries while sneezing, wiping their nose on their hands, and then juggling your apples, then they wheel them out for pickup. Half the time I go through the ATL airport bathrooms I see someone leave the stall without even stopping to wash their hands. The only answer is plant a garden!

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Could we look to South Korea as the example, given they are months ahead of us in dealing with this? How do you interpret South Korea's data?

It seems to be the most reliable and comprehensive data out there, yet folks are focused on day-to-day numbers in countries that don't have complete testing or a meaningful sample size.

They are running 7x (0.7%) the Flu mortality rate (0.1%). I haven't studied their data, I've only read they have very wide-spread testing, meaning their denominator (deaths divided by number of cases) might be the most accurate. China has plateaued and they've run a bunch of numbers. Different provinces have seen anywhere from 0.4% to 2.9%. China is really interesting for quite a few reasons. China has 1.4 Billion people (4x the size of the US). They have 80,000 cases - 0.005% of the population...yet if their data is correct they've plateaued. Was it because the effectively shut off key cities with military force quarantines? Per capita, that would equate to the US peaking around 16,500 cases and then leveling off.

 

[GT_EE78]

804 in the US now. Richmond area code in the house. Can we get to the ambulance-chasing lawyer phone number 999 by tomorrow?

these are interesting numbers as most states should have had full test capability last thursday or friday and we're still running at 100-120 new cases per day in the US. Maybe its still coming but i expected a more exponential trend while testing gets caught up.

 

[RonJohn]

So the workers gather all your produce and groceries while sneezing, wiping their nose on their hands, and then juggling your apples, then they wheel them out for pickup. Half the time I go through the ATL airport bathrooms I see someone leave the stall without even stopping to wash their hands. The only answer is plant a garden!

It isn't any different than picking up the groceries yourself after the stock boys sneezed on them while putting them on the shelf. Or pushing a buggy after the previous person to use the buggy was wiping their nose while pushing it. The key is to sanitize your hands and not to touch your face so the virus can't travel from your hands to your eyes, nose, or mouth. ... And to stay away from old ladies who are too busy talking on the cell phone to cover their mouths while coughing.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

these are interesting numbers as most states should have had full test capability last thursday or friday and we're still running at 100-120 new cases per day in the US. Maybe its still coming but i expected a more exponential trend while testing gets caught up.

It is actually growing exponentially. Here are the numbers for the last several days (approximate).
102
126....+24
158....+32
215....+57
317....+102
430....+113
531....+101
I missed yesterday
804 (early afternoon)....+273 (need to check around 9pm tonight to make this a pretty accurate 2 day change)

 

[GT_EE78]

It is actually growing exponentially. Here are the numbers for the last several days (approximate).
102
126....+24
158....+32
215....+57
317....+102
430....+113
531....+101
I missed yesterday
804 (early afternoon)....+273 (need to check around 9pm tonight to make this a pretty accurate 2 day change)

You're right and it started growing on Thursday after smaller increase M,T,W.
Scroll down at the link below to see a graph of
Daily New Cases in the United States
their numbers may vary a bit from US stats as they reset the counter at 000 GMT
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[sidewalkGTfan]

I'm gonna assume this has been in the states longer than first tested/reported. The real # is probably in the thousands or even tens of thousands since some people have had it and never even went to a doctor office.

 

[Techster]

Um, does Coach Collins know about this?!

 

[CuseJacket]

I'm gonna assume this has been in the states longer than first tested/reported. The real # is probably in the thousands or even tens of thousands since some people have had it and never even went to a doctor office.

Posted something similar last week. It is already everywhere. Yet people are acting surprised when there is an announcement of another case. If only people understand that to be another confirmed case, and confirmation might actually be a good thing, that'd be helpful. Of course, the virus is almost certainly spreading too.

The numbers are about to skyrocket. We still haven't begun and reported wide-scale testing. Unfortunately the media and hour-to-hour fear mongering / taking individual examples and extrapolating is going to take over the news headlines. It happens in some posts here, which is frustrating.

 

[takethepoints]

@takethepoints OMG you cite a paper by some academic with ZERO data to support his claims that government is the solution to all our problems. We had the best healthcare in the US until we exploded the size of the FDA, dramatically increased the size Medicare/Medicaid and started demanding doctors run tests even when not required, allowed the court systems to permit frivolous claims to get rewarded causing skyrocketing malpractice premiums both for doctors and companies doing the R&D on drugs, medical devices, etc. I’m sure I left off a few elements government destroyed in our healthcare system. The politicians need to look no further than the mirror as to who and what caused this. Politicians currying political favor developing processes & institutions to support cronies and family members to enrich themselves and increase their power. hat we have isn’t free market at all, it’s socialized healthcare & you want to take a bad system and increase it’s scope & size? I’m glad you’re not working at my company.

Uh, dude, that "some academic" is Kenneth Arrow, the Noble prize winner and one of the most influential economists of the last century. And he was looking at the welfare problems with applying a market model with competition to health care. No need for data to test that, though all you have to do is look at comparative health results for the US and countries with national health services to see that he's right. Here's a quick look:

https://www.americashealthrankings....nual-report/findings-international-comparison

Depressing, isn't it? Virtually all of the other countries we're compared to have national health services. It's interesting that the only countries that are above us in infant mortality (for instance) all have mixed public-private systems with minimal national coordination, just like we do. And, remember, these are all relatively developed countries. Overall, the "socialized medicine" in the rest of the developed world works and ours sucks. As the present crisis is pointing out in bold relief.

 

[Techster]

I'm gonna assume this has been in the states longer than first tested/reported. The real # is probably in the thousands or even tens of thousands since some people have had it and never even went to a doctor office.

This.

The US response is widely viewed as the least prepared and worst of the developed nations. It also hurts us that tests have been slow to distribute. Whatever is being reported now is a small tip of a very large iceberg...and when tests are available en mass, expect the numbers to skyrocket exponentially.

Also keep this in mind, all information about the virus is being filtered through the White House. There are political factors at play that prevents us from knowing the full extent of the effects of coronavirus in the US. At some point, it will get so out of hand that the information filter can't be contain. Who knows what it will look like by then.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Uh, dude, that "some academic" is Kenneth Arrow, the Noble prize winner and one of the most influential economists of the last century. And he was looking at the welfare problems with applying a market model with competition to health care. No need for data to test that, though all you have to do is look at comparative health results for the US and countries with national health services to see that he's right. Here's a quick look:

https://www.americashealthrankings....nual-report/findings-international-comparison

Depressing, isn't it? Virtually all of the other countries we're compared to have national health services. It's interesting that the only countries that are above us in infant mortality (for instance) all have mixed public-private systems with minimal national coordination, just like we do. And, remember, these are all relatively developed countries. Overall, the "socialized medicine" in the rest of the developed world works and ours sucks. As the present crisis is pointing out in bold relief.

Well we have socialized medicine too. And ours doesn’t suck. Our outcomes for all kinds of health conditions are excellent. You get cancer or any number of things and the USA is where you want to get treatment.

One huge difference in our healthcare system is that our people are super fat on average unlike anywhere else in the world. That leads to all kinds of unique health problems and costs (infant mortality, regular mortality, diabetes, heart disease, etc etc). Focusing on outcomes when you compare equals will help you understand how good our healthcare system is. Like 2 similarly healthy people who contract cancer. Comparing a super obese 200 pound woman's life expectancy with a healthy 120 pound woman only tells you that the first woman is incredibly overweight - extrapolating that to then state the second person has a better healthcare system is a false equivalency.

Also, just because someone got a Nobel Prize doesn't make them immune to criticism. Paul Krugman makes some of the most idiotic economic statements pretty frequently, and he won the Nobel Prize in economics.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

This.

The US response is widely viewed as the least prepared and worst of the developed nations. It also hurts us that tests have been slow to distribute. Whatever is being reported now is a small tip of a very large iceberg...and when tests are available en mass, expect the numbers to skyrocket exponentially.

Also keep this in mind, all information about the virus is being filtered through the White House. There are political factors at play that prevents us from knowing the full extent of the effects of coronavirus in the US. At some point, it will get so out of hand that the information filter can't be contain. Who knows what it will look like by then.

False.

 

[takethepoints]

By a country mile, and it’s not even close, Medicare is by far the worst run federal government program. And by the way, our regular health insurance system is not a free and competitive market system either.

Yeah, I know: the market can't fail, we can only fail the market. It's an old argument and it doesn't wash, either logically (it's a tautology) or empirically. See the post I just did in r

Well we have socialized medicine too. And ours doesn’t suck. Our outcomes for all kinds of health conditions are excellent. You get cancer or any number of things and the USA is where you want to get treatment.

This is partially true. There are certain kinds of treatments for a few diseases that we lead the world in. But that's the way it is pretty much across the board. An example: my mother died from aortal stenosis (her aorta got clogged). Our solution was - and still largely is - open heart surgery. This is risky, painful, and hard for the people who need it to recover from. While she was in the hospital, she was considered fo a clinical trial involving a new technique that went in through one of the minor leg arteries (can't remember which one) with a robot appliance that contained an artificial replacement for the walls of the aorta. This (TAVR) worked just fine and has now been adopted widely, albeit too late for my Mom.

Where did this new technique come from? It was developed first in Denmark, then perfected in France. The French are now the acknowledged experts in the field. And they get much better overall health results too boot.

Well, back to football.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Yeah, I know: the market can't fail, we can only fail the market. It's an old argument and it doesn't wash, either logically (it's a tautology) or empirically. See the post I just did in r

This is partially true. There are certain kinds of treatments for a few diseases that we lead the world in. But that's the way it is pretty much across the board. An example: my mother died from aortal stenosis (her aorta got clogged). Our solution was - and still largely is - open heart surgery. This is risky, painful, and hard for the people who need it to recover from. While she was in the hospital, she was considered fo a clinical trial involving a new technique that went in through one of the minor leg arteries (can't remember which one) with a robot appliance that contained an artificial replacement for the walls of the aorta. This (TAVR) worked just fine and has now been adopted widely, albeit too late for my Mom.

Where did this new technique come from? It was developed first in Denmark, then perfected in France. The French are now the acknowledged experts in the field. And they get much better overall health results too boot.

Well, back to football.

I never said the market couldn't fail. I merely pointed out that Medicare is by far the single worst government program. Also, we don't have a monopoly on smart people or innovation. We have a massive number of innovations and inventions in the healthcare industry, and other countries do too. In fact, often times we aren't allowed to use these innovations because our own government (like the FDA) won't let us. Its like we're only allowed to have the worst of both worlds. We are our own worst enemy. Not intentionally. The FDA and other groups put these regulations and restrictions in place with good intentions.

 

[jwsavhGT]

www.coronavirus.gov

 

[Techster]

https://time.com/5797636/trump-botched-coronavirus-response/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...rp-increase-u-s-coronavirus-cases/5003087002/

https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/updated-timeline-coronavirus

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/feds-allow-state-public-health-labs-test-covid-19


The interesting part here when you read the articles is the timeline that the virus reared its head in China (December), and the point where tests were readily made available in the United States.

But this is where the our government was too slow:

January 21st: United States confirms its first case in Washington state, a man who traveled to the Wuhan area.

January 31st: Trump administration declared a public health emergency, and moved quickly to cancel flights from China, ban non-U.S. citizens who recently visited China from entering the U.S., and quarantine Americans who had recently visited China’s Hubei province.

February 5th: The United States confirms its twelfth case. CDC developed and shipped testing kits in early February to state and local public health labs to begin testing for coronavirus. But a test kit glitch left state and local public health labs unable to confirm the test results. The flaw delayed rapid testing among state and local labs, just as the deadly respiratory virus gained a foothold among infected travelers returning to the United States.

Mid/Late February - February 24th: Private labs and academic hospitals didn’t get the green light to develop and use their own diagnostics until several weeks later. That delayed testing and left even patients with symptoms of, or exposure to COVID-19 unable to get tested.

APHL said its scientists were in talks all day yesterday with the FDA and CDC to figure out a way to allow labs to use functioning tests.

**(A month AFTER the first confirmed positive result in the US of the virus, the US/CDC did not have a fully functioning Covid-19 test, and Private Labs and Academic Hospitals still were NOT given green lights to use/develop their own tests)**

February 29th: The United States reports its first death, a man in his fifties with an underlying health condition.

March 9th: According to the Time article, tests are still being rolled out across the country, which means they are still not readily available. In the meantime, there are countless number of people walking around/riding mass transportation/with large gatherings that are infected but not yet showing signs passing along the virus.

Now compare that to the response of Taiwan and South Korea, countries where thousands of people go back and forth between China. The statistics there show the virus infection rate has crested and is in decline. Keep in mind, they had less time to react to the virus spreading due to proximity and amount of people that travel between the countries:

Taiwan:
https://thediplomat.com/2020/02/the...atic-taiwan-outperformed-authoritarian-china/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ndard-epidemic-response-keep-infection-rates/

https://www.voanews.com/science-hea...t-42-coronavirus-cases-while-neighbors-report

South Korea:
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/heal...virus-south-korea-cuts-infection-rate-without

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-glimmer-of-hope-in-south-korea-idUSKBN20X04P

 

[Deleted member 2897]

https://time.com/5797636/trump-botched-coronavirus-response/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...rp-increase-u-s-coronavirus-cases/5003087002/

https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/updated-timeline-coronavirus

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/feds-allow-state-public-health-labs-test-covid-19


The interesting part here when you read the articles is the timeline that the virus reared its head in China (December), and the point where tests were readily made available in the United States.

But this is where the our government was too slow:

January 21st: United States confirms its first case in Washington state, a man who traveled to the Wuhan area.

January 31st: Trump administration declared a public health emergency, and moved quickly to cancel flights from China, ban non-U.S. citizens who recently visited China from entering the U.S., and quarantine Americans who had recently visited China’s Hubei province.

February 5th: The United States confirms its twelfth case. CDC developed and shipped testing kits in early February to state and local public health labs to begin testing for coronavirus. But a test kit glitch left state and local public health labs unable to confirm the test results. The flaw delayed rapid testing among state and local labs, just as the deadly respiratory virus gained a foothold among infected travelers returning to the United States.

Mid/Late February - February 24th: Private labs and academic hospitals didn’t get the green light to develop and use their own diagnostics until several weeks later. That delayed testing and left even patients with symptoms of, or exposure to COVID-19 unable to get tested.

APHL said its scientists were in talks all day yesterday with the FDA and CDC to figure out a way to allow labs to use functioning tests.

**(A month AFTER the first confirmed positive result in the US of the virus, the US/CDC did not have a fully functioning Covid-19 test, and Private Labs and Academic Hospitals still were NOT given green lights to use/develop their own tests)**

February 29th: The United States reports its first death, a man in his fifties with an underlying health condition.

March 9th: According to the Time article, tests are still being rolled out across the country, which means they are still not readily available. In the meantime, there are countless number of people walking around/riding mass transportation/with large gatherings that are infected but not yet showing signs passing along the virus.

Now compare that to the response of Taiwan and South Korea, countries where thousands of people go back and forth between China. The statistics there show the virus infection rate has crested and is in decline. Keep in mind, they had less time to react to the virus spreading due to proximity and amount of people that travel between the countries:

Taiwan:
https://thediplomat.com/2020/02/the...atic-taiwan-outperformed-authoritarian-china/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...ndard-epidemic-response-keep-infection-rates/

https://www.voanews.com/science-hea...t-42-coronavirus-cases-while-neighbors-report

South Korea:
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/heal...virus-south-korea-cuts-infection-rate-without

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-glimmer-of-hope-in-south-korea-idUSKBN20X04P

Yep. It took a bit to figure out that idiotic FDA rules were preventing folks from ramping up test kit availability. That has nothing to do with Trump or the spread of the disease. Many people presumed positive were quarantined anyway as if they were. Should we have shut the whole country down like Italy just did? I’m not sure we want to do that for a non-Ebola type of virus.