Coronavirus Thread

[takethepoints]

How about some papers by experts/ That always seems to help. See:

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia....specific-fatality-ratio-estimated-using-stan/

And follow the links. The math is pretty tough in spots - and I don't like Bayesian analysis, period - but figuring out death rates from the virus in China is a legit use of Bayesian techniques. And Gelman does a pretty good TL, DR for the papers, including the relevant graphs for the main one.

 

[takethepoints]

A major point is seemingly overlooked in this whole mess- government (FDA) prevented private entities from independently developing test kits & that’s why we’re lagging. Had we allowed good old fashioned capitalists to seek profit by fulfilling demand, we’d be flush with kits nationwide instead of in this tail case.

Ah. But would those tests work? It should be obvious that churning out test kits for COVID-19 would be child's play for the inevitable grifters that hang around waiting for a chance to screw the consuming public. Some capitalists would behave and some sure as Hell wouldn't. The FDA was established for a reason.

The hold up on tests was for labs, usually associated with university hospitals, that had developed their own tests. And that was a mistake.

 

[RonJohn]

Ah. But would those tests work? It should be obvious that churning out test kits for COVID-19 would be child's play for the inevitable grifters that hang around waiting for a chance to screw the consuming public. Some capitalists would behave and some sure as Hell wouldn't. The FDA was established for a reason.

Forsythia from the movie Contagion? Nobody would ever sell snake-oil, or fake disease tests would they?

 

[GT_EE78]

Yesterdays new cases (US - about 100)
United States:
- 1 new case in Illinois, the first community-transmitted case of the virus in Chicago: ab, currently hospitalized in serious condition. Officials say that the man has not traveled to any countries impacted by coronavirus, and that he has no connection to any other existing cases [source]
- 3 new cases in Kentucky [source]
- Washington state:
-- 20 new cases, 2 of which in Pierce County [source]
-- 3 new deaths (1 of which in Grant County) [source] [source]
- 1 new case in Minnesota (Carver County) [source]
- First 3 cases in Iowa [source]
- 2 new cases in Tennessee (Davidson County and first in Shelby County) [source]
- 2 new cases in Maryland [source]
- 15 new cases in Massachusetts, all connected to the Biogen employee conference in late February [source]
- 7 new cases in California:
---- 5 in Contra Costa County [source]
---- 1 in Riverside County (locally acquired) [source]
---- 1 in Fresno County (travel related) [source]
- 2 new cases in New Jersey [source]
- 1 new case in Connecticut (Wilton) [source]
- 7 new cases in Oregon. Governor declares state of emergency which will last for 60 days [source]
- 1 new case in Virginia (Fairfax City) [source]
- 1 new case in Indiana (Hendricks County) [source]
- 16 new cases in New York state [source]
- 2 new cases in New Hampshire: an adult male from Grafton County who had contact with a confirmed case at Hope Bible Fellowship in West Lebanon, NH on March 1st at the morning service, and an adult male from Rockingham County who traveled to Italy [source]
1st in Vermont [source]
1st in Missouri (Louis County) [source]
4 in Florida:
- 1 in Broward County [source]
- 1 in Manatee County [source]
- 2: 1 in Okaloosa County and 1 in Volusia County, both with a recent history of travel [source]

Todays cases appear to include 4 more for Ga and 4 more in SC
https://dph.georgia.gov/press-relea...onal-presumed-positive-cases-covid-19-georgia
https://www.scdhec.gov/news-release...e-cases-2019-novel-coronavirus-south-carolina

 

[inGTwetrust]

Anything out about how the virus would effect a newborn? I guess I could dig through google. But that’s what I have all you smart people for

 

[Buzzbomb]

Very few children have contracted it, as of February 13th per Healthline. It’s been said by the medical community it’s less likely to affect pregnant women and their babies.

 

[Techster]

It's all fun and games...until the games are no longer fun:

 

[CuseJacket]

Anything out about how the virus would effect a newborn? I guess I could dig through google. But that’s what I have all you smart people for

 

[Deleted member 2897]

It's all fun and games...until the games are no longer fun:

Actually, Gaetz was questioned about wearing that mask and he said he wasn't making fun of anything but was totally serious. In light of everything, perhaps he should have kept wearing it.

 

[Techster]

"WOW" is not a strong enough descriptor:

 

[Deleted member 2897]

To hit the mortality level as the Flu this year (0.2% death rate), we would need to have 5,500 people in the US actually have Coronavirus instead of the ~150 that have actually been confirmed. Maybe it is somewhere that big and this is just like the regular Flu. Maybe its not. All the Epidemiologists and similar experts that I've seen continue to state the death rate is substantially higher with this virus.

Italy has had 150 deaths in the last 2 weeks. At a 0.2% death rate (if this is like the Flu), that would imply 75,000 Italians have it. Maybe they do. They have reported that 4,000 have it. Is 4,000 correct? Probably not. Is 75,000 the real number? I have no idea. But I'd imagine not.

6,000 people in Italy have tested positive in the past 3 days. About 400 people have died in the last 3 days. The Prime Minister today announced a quarantine of the entire country. Wow.

 

[Techster]

...and here it goes in GA...

 

[LibertyTurns]

Ah. But would those tests work? It should be obvious that churning out test kits for COVID-19 would be child's play for the inevitable grifters that hang around waiting for a chance to screw the consuming public. Some capitalists would behave and some sure as Hell wouldn't. The FDA was established for a reason.

The hold up on tests was for labs, usually associated with university hospitals, that had developed their own tests. And that was a mistake.

And the government would never lie about being lazy or incompetent? Maybe they’re just too dense to know the difference? I’m not a lover of all things government like you Nanny State types. Koreans, etc managed to get kits produced to test their people. Only the US and third world countries were unable to get moving on this. We blocked companies with the capability to excel and our fine government bureaucrats did so without a care in the world. We should be firing these bastards, but that would be accountability and we can’t have that. It’s sad damn near everyone outperforms us these days, but we get what we deserve in the end. We put these imbeciles in charge and damn there’s a ton of them sucking us to death in every corner of government.

 

[dtm1997]

 

[Techster]

 

[Techster]

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

And the government would never lie about being lazy or incompetent? Maybe they’re just too dense to know the difference? I’m not a lover of all things government like you Nanny State types. Koreans, etc managed to get kits produced to test their people. Only the US and third world countries were unable to get moving on this. We blocked companies with the capability to excel and our fine government bureaucrats did so without a care in the world. We should be firing these bastards, but that would be accountability and we can’t have that. It’s sad damn near everyone outperforms us these days, but we get what we deserve in the end. We put these imbeciles in charge and damn there’s a ton of them sucking us to death in every corner of government.

I posted a link earlier in this thread to an article from the Washington Post. Although the writers couldn't pass by the opportunity to refer to the "chaos in the White House", it was obvious from the article that the CDC and FDA have been dragging their feet when it comes to test kits. It read to me like "well, we have always done it this way", and so they have continued to do it "this way", resulting in a major shortage of testing kits and a ever-lengthening delay in getting the distributed.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

6,000 people in Italy have tested positive in the past 3 days. About 400 people have died in the last 3 days. The Prime Minister today announced a quarantine of the entire country. Wow.

Unless things settle down, or they come up with a vaccine and adequate treatment, it looks like my month in Italy and Sicily in June will end up getting cancelled. Oh, well, since the tour company absorbs the cost and will give 100% refunds on cancelled trips, I guess I will have a lot of money to do other things this summer.

 

[Techster]

 

[Techster]