Coronavirus Thread

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mts315

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I’m worried about all the Main Street shops (and my town has a real Main Street with shops)


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Something I'm doing and recommend if you are able. Go to the local businesses that you frequent and buy a gift card. It helps them with some extra liquidity when they need it and you can go get the services when they don't, hopefully in a few months.
 

kg01

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Have a friend of mine that was sent home from work last week because he was sick. Doctor tested for flu and a few other things. Has Coronavirus symptoms but they told him just to go home for 2 weeks and didn't test. I think that is why the numbers in SC are so low.

Plus there's probably a bunch-a people sitting at home like, "COVID-19 must not be that bad. We done already got through 18 of 'em."

... I'm here all week, folks.
 

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Plus there's probably a bunch-a people sitting at home like, "COVID-19 must not be that bad. We done already got through 18 of 'em."

... I'm here all week, folks.

This post, though subtle, is one of the better ones in these 64 pages!
 

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Here's the report that led to the sudden sobering of tone by the Trump administration yesterday:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

No wonder. The prognosis for deaths is daunting, even with our best efforts at multilevel interventions.

One caveat: this hasn't been peer reviewed yet. Until that happens it isn't dispositive. But credible enough to scare the living daylights out of elected officials? Oh, yeah. And credible enough for this crowd? Oh, yeah.

I have a friend whose neighbor works in the ICU. The ventilators in both the ICU and PICU are already all used without any COVID-19 patients. As I said yesterday, my wife is a nurse and although she doesn't know about ventilator capacity, she said their ICU and PICU is already full too. Even aside from the higher mortality risk for older people, the notion of people of all ages in serious enough condition to go to the ER and them not have capacity is not a good one.
 

kg01

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This post, though subtle, is one of the better ones in these 64 pages!

a-toast.gif

wtfs.gif
 

flounder

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I have a friend whose neighbor works in the ICU. The ventilators in both the ICU and PICU are already all used without any COVID-19 patients. As I said yesterday, my wife is a nurse and although she doesn't know about ventilator capacity, she said their ICU and PICU is already full too. Even aside from the higher mortality risk for older people, the notion of people of all ages in serious enough condition to go to the ER and them not have capacity is not a good one.

Hopefully that's not the case everywhere. Our hospital still had half their ventilators available last Monday.
 

Lotta Booze

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Corrected to the US population (so folks can see what might be coming here), here are some cases from around the world. We are about 10-14 days behind most of these.
* Italy: 148,000
* Iceland: 143,000
* Switzerland: 105,000
* Norway: 90,000
* Spain: 68,000
* Denmark: 61,000
* Qatar: 56,000
* South Korea: 54,000
* Austria: 50,000
* Slovenia: 45,000
* Sweden: 39,000
* Belgium: 36,000
* Germany, 35,000
* France: 33,000
* Netherlands: 33,000

Current US: 5,600

Now what if you took just the NBA and extrapolated that out to the US Population equivalent?

The NBA would have 79,150 cases
 

GT_EE78

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Here's the report that led to the sudden sobering of tone by the Trump administration yesterday:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

No wonder. The prognosis for deaths is daunting, even with our best efforts at multilevel interventions.

One caveat: this hasn't been peer reviewed yet. Until that happens it isn't dispositive. But credible enough to scare the living daylights out of elected officials? Oh, yeah. And credible enough for this crowd? Oh, yeah.
It's a well written and easy to understand article so there's that. 1.2 to 2.2 million deaths isn't credible because the premise for the article wasn't credible (no pharmaceutical intervention). it's worth reading and let's one know the need to get some treatments out there asap. treatments will be available long before there is a vaccine.
 

GT_EE78

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> I heard two TV interviews last night that said anti-malaria drugs were working well and that clinical trials have started. i'd bet the pharmaseuticles would be irritated as they are already generic, low cost and widely available. The linked article includes the malaria drugs along with some anti-virals that are being used .. hopefully a recommended treatment is on the table soon.
https://justthenews.com/politics-po...ls-past-viral-outbreaks-may-effectively-treat
 

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Which is why it's ridiculous to say people can only get tested/treated "if they exhibit symptoms" or if they've been in contact with a "known" case.

Actually not. I am sitting here watching the South Carolina DHEC daily press conference. They said although there are exceptions, they do not recommend testing people that do not have symptoms. If there is reason to believe that they may have the virus, they are to self Quarantine. But they said even people that have the virus may not test positive if they are not showing symptoms yet. The only way around that is to keep testing those people every day for 14 days, which does not scale.
 

takethepoints

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It's a well written and easy to understand article so there's that. 1.2 to 2.2 million deaths isn't credible because the premise for the article wasn't credible (no pharmaceutical intervention). it's worth reading and let's one know the need to get some treatments out there asap. treatments will be available long before there is a vaccine.
If the anti-virals come on line - and let's hope for everyone's sake that they do that soon - then, yes, the article's estimates are off. But there's no guarantee that whatever we come up with will work well enough to help the over 70 (yikes) crowd. The anti-virals for flu sorta work and, God knows, that's better then nothing. That won't help much with spread of the virus, however. There the "NPIs" (non-pharmaceutical interventions) will have to be what we depend on. I sure do hope we get more testing on line soon as well; the report recommends an on-an-off approach to social distancing based on hospital surveillance. No tests = no surveillance. But I think that part of the equation is now well in hand, no matter how late.
 

Lotta Booze

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Actually not. I am sitting here watching the South Carolina DHEC daily press conference. They said although there are exceptions, they do not recommend testing people that do not have symptoms. If there is reason to believe that they may have the virus, they are to self Quarantine. But they said even people that have the virus may not test positive if they are not showing symptoms yet. The only way around that is to keep testing those people every day for 14 days, which does not scale.

I think part of that recommendation is because they don't have a ton of tests. They have to be more selective with them
 

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I think part of that recommendation is because they don't have a ton of tests. They have to be more selective with them

People are overreacting and flooding emergency rooms requesting to be tested. Less than 10% of people they do test, even after pre-screening turn out positive. If we multiply these test requests by 14 or 1400, it’s not just the test kits, it’s the labor. My ER nurse connections are begging people to stop requesting tests because they can’t get their jobs done.
 
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