Coronavirus Thread

[Deleted member 2897]

You have a different definition of a clear detailed plan than everyone else. You have refused to talk about the actual details of how their "guidelines" would work.

But yes our Governor showed the world what happens when you are in way over your head and think you are the smartest person around.

Please stop lying. I’ve given very detailed explanations and even referenced actual diagrams in the document. Stop making things up.

 

[TooTall]

So, Georgia opened in May. We have never had a mandated mask order, statewide. We've been through holidays, riots, protests, voting, beaches open, bars open etc.

This is the daily reporting for today.

COVID-19 Status Report

These data represent confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the Georgia Department of Public Health.

dph.georgia.gov

For those who want %.
2.4% Death Rate (has fallen a FULL % point since the end of last month) ((Our death total is only 8.8% of New York's total))
2.1% ICU Admission Rate
11% Hospitalization Rate (length and treatment intensity not listed)

I'd give our Governor a thumbs up for the way he has handled this.

See you guys this fall at BDS @ HGF!!

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Meanwhile, more (latest) info on hydroxychloroquin, the drug that Trump touted and everyone else then denounced because....Trump.....

This is from an article in today's Wall Street Journal:

The Food and Drug Administration issued an emergency use authorization on March 28, allowing hospitals to treat Covid-19 patients outside clinical trials using HCQ donated by manufacturers to the national stockpile. But on June 15 the agency rescinded the authorization. “In light of ongoing serious cardiac adverse events and other potential serious side effects,” the FDA announced, “the known and potential benefits of . . . hydroxychloroquine no longer outweigh the known and potential risks for the authorized use.”

But the scientific basis for the revocation now appears faulty. Most studies didn’t adjust results for confounding variables such as disease severity, drug dosage or when patients started treatment. Two new peer-reviewed studies find that HCQ can significantly reduce mortality in hospitalized patients. With hospital beds filling up across the American South and West and a limited supply of Gilead Sciences ’ antiviral remdesivir, the FDA should reinstate its emergency-use authorization for HCQ.

HCQ has been safely used for decades to treat patients with lupus and rheumatoid arthritis, both inflammatory autoimmune conditions. The drug has also been found to interfere with the novel coronavirus’s replication in vitro, and studies this spring from France, Brazil and China showed the drug might help moderately ill patients.

HCQ also has side effects. It can cause cardiac arrhythmias, a particular risk for severely ill Covid-19 patients because the virus can damage heart tissue. But the FDA emergency authorization warned about this and required doctors to monitor patients closely and report adverse side effects to the agency.

In late May, the Lancet published a large-scale international study that claimed hospitalized Covid-19 patients treated with HCQ were 30% more likely to die. But the medical journal retracted the study on June 4 after more than 120 scientists pointed out significant flaws in the data and methodology. The source of the raw data refused to share it with independent reviewers.

Nonetheless, the anti-Trump media claimed vindication later that day when the New England Journal of Medicine published a randomized trial that concluded HCQ didn’t prevent illness in people who had been exposed to the virus. The study’s raw data showed that people who took HCQ within two days of exposure were 38% less likely to develop symptoms. But a third of subjects in the trial took the drug four days after exposure, which obscured its benefits. Since the average viral incubation period is five days, starting the drug four days after exposure is unlikely to do much good.

On June 5, University of Oxford researchers reported that a midpoint review of their HCQ trial had found no clinical benefit. “This result should change medical practice worldwide,” Oxford epidemiologist Martin Landray declared in a press release. It usually pays to be skeptical of such sweeping claims based on a single study.

The Oxford team released a preprint study with more data from its trial on Wednesday. Patients were treated on average nine days after their symptom onset, which may have been too late to improve clinical outcomes. The trial’s protocol also called for dosages two to three times as high as those recommended by the FDA’s emergency use authorization.

In revoking the authorization 10 days later, the FDA cited the New England Journal and Oxford work as well as a British Medical Journal study from China that purportedly found no benefit from the drug. Yet an April draft of the last study concluded that HCQ accelerated “the alleviation of clinical symptoms, possibly through anti-inflammatory properties” and “might prevent disease progression, particularly in patients at higher risk.”

The draft also noted that after adjusting for the confounding effects of other antivirals used to treat patients, “the efficacy of HCQ on the alleviation of symptoms was more evident.” This analysis of HCQ’s benefits was scrubbed from the published version because some editors and reviewers quibbled that it wasn’t called for in the trial protocol.

The first of the new studies showing benefits from HCQ appeared in the Journal of General Internal Medicine on June 30. It found patients treated with the drug at New York’s Mount Sinai Health System hospitals were 47% less likely to die after adjusting for confounding variables such as underlying health conditions and disease severity. Notably, Mount Sinai’s treatment protocol called for lower dosages than in the Oxford trial, and patients on average were treated within one day of hospitalization.

The second, published July 1 in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases, found that patients treated with HCQ at Henry Ford Health System hospitals in Detroit were 50% to 66% less likely to die after adjusting for confounding variables including other treatments. Nearly all patients began treatment within two days of admission, received dosages that hewed closely to FDA guidelines, and were continuously monitored for cardiac arrhythmias.


“Our patient population received aggressive early medical intervention, and were less prone to development of myocarditis, and cardiac inflammation commonly seen in later stages of COVID-19 disease,” the Henry Ford doctors noted.

This shouldn’t be surprising. An FDA safety review published July 1 reported only five adverse side effects from HCQ through the emergency use authorization among tens of millions of doses that were distributed to hospitals. This suggests that the drug isn’t harmful to the vast majority of patients who are treated according to FDA guidelines.

With hundreds of Covid-infected Americans still dying each day, the agency should let physicians decide whether to treat patients with HCQ based on their experience and scientific evidence. Leave politics out of it.
_______________________________________________________________________________

The anti-science of the FDA and that original dictation was roundly condemned on this board. For all of the exact reasons you just listed. It is very common that drugs work for certain types of people in certain conditions and are less helpful in others. Just another data point in how worthless the FDA and CDC has been during all of this.

 

[Techster]

You would think when something becomes a worldwide pandemic, it's all hands on deck to get a viable vaccine out for everyone.

 

[WreckinGT]

This isn't worrying at all. (<-- sarcasm)

I have actually worked closely with one of the people interviewed in this article. Brilliant person who has dedicated their life to public health with pretty great results. I will just say that im glad that im not working in that area anymore as the political nonsense would be infuriating.

 

[WreckinGT]

Because it’s a government entity and nobody knows how to solve for X.

Thank you, I’ll be here all week, don’t forget to tip the waitress.

But seriously, sorry to hear - that’s gotta be such a mess.

Apparently I wasn't the only parent to express concerns. Cobb County announced today that they are starting completely online with no foreseeable timetable for opening in person due to parents concerns. If they can't come up with a real plan then this is certainly the best route to go. It's probably the best route anyways until numbers are a little more under control.

 

[BuzzStone]

Please stop lying. I’ve given very detailed explanations and even referenced actual diagrams in the document. Stop making things up.

Please I must have missed your response then. Please point me to any detailed information about transportation for the students, then we will move on to after they get to school.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Please I must have missed your response then. Please point me to any detailed information about transportation for the students, then we will move on to after they get to school.

Like I said last time, pull up the 50 page plan. Go to the table of contents. Go to the appendix. There is a specific document with diagrams that describes how busing will safely work, with X’s drawn on the seats and everything else. You really should read the whole thing. It’s full of all kinds of granular details inside the school as well. It doesn’t excuse the Governor's obnoxious random new requirements, but it’s a very good document. If he would have just told school districts to follow that, everyone would have been fine.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Some interesting info coming out of Orlando. Fox 35 News, which I assume is a local station there, reports:

After FOX 35 News noticed errors in the state’s report on positivity rates, the Florida Department of Health said that some laboratories have not been reporting negative test result data to the state.
Countless labs have reported a 100 percent positivity rate, which means every single person tested was positive. Other labs had very high positivity rates. FOX 35 News found that testing sites like one local Centra Care reported that 83 people were tested and all tested positive. Then, NCF Diagnostics in Alachua reported 88 percent of tests were positive.
How could that be? FOX 35 News investigated these astronomical numbers, contacting every local location mentioned in the report.
The report showed that Orlando Health had a 98 percent positivity rate. However, when FOX 35 News contacted the hospital, they confirmed errors in the report. Orlando Health’s positivity rate is only 9.4 percent, not 98 percent as in the report.
The report also showed that the Orlando Veteran’s Medical Center had a positivity rate of 76 percent. A spokesperson for the VA told FOX 35 News on Tuesday that this does not reflect their numbers and that the positivity rate for the center is actually 6 percent.
FOX 35 News went on to speak with the Florida Department of Health on Tuesday. They confirmed that although private and public laboratories are required to report positive and negative results to the state immediately, some have not. Specifically, they said that some smaller, private labs were not reporting negative test result data to the state.
Florida is currently experiencing a surge in COVID-19 cases, reporting the state’s daily reported cases have gone from about 2,000 a day a month ago to over 12,000. Then, on Tuesday, state health officials reported the largest single-day increase in deaths yet, as 132 more were announced.

 

[takethepoints]

Tech to the rescue again!

Want to know the risk that someone will have SARS-Cov-2 in your county, given different crowd sizes? Goto:

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.e...0BVFxmX1sy8YuuxKnQDm_HlQ2EuB0GjXdWEJF3KNs_DEc

I live in Cobb County. In a gathering of 10 people the estimated risk of one person having the virus is … 28%. A bit to high for my taste.

Let's have a contest! What's the risk of SARS-Cov-2 in a gathering of 10 people where you live?

Btw, the new look sucks.

 

[WreckinGT]

So, Georgia opened in May. We have never had a mandated mask order, statewide. We've been through holidays, riots, protests, voting, beaches open, bars open etc.

This is the daily reporting for today.

COVID-19 Status Report

These data represent confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the Georgia Department of Public Health.

dph.georgia.gov

View attachment 8563

For those who want %.
2.4% Death Rate (has fallen a FULL % point since the end of last month) ((Our death total is only 8.8% of New York's total))
2.1% ICU Admission Rate
11% Hospitalization Rate (length and treatment intensity not listed)

I'd give our Governor a thumbs up for the way he has handled this.

See you guys this fall at BDS @ HGF!!

I remember when Florida and Texas were celebrating the same thing a month or so ago.

 

[684Bee]

You have a different definition of a clear detailed plan than everyone else. You have refused to talk about the actual details of how their "guidelines" would work.

But yes our Governor showed the world what happens when you are in way over your head and think you are the smartest person around.

I heard him on the news say (direct quote), “It should be up to the parents to decide what is best for their children”. Yeah, what a moron and radical idea.

 

[RonJohn]

Tech to the rescue again!

Want to know the risk that someone will have SARS-Cov-2 in your county, given different crowd sizes? Goto:

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.e...0BVFxmX1sy8YuuxKnQDm_HlQ2EuB0GjXdWEJF3KNs_DEc

I live in Cobb County. In a gathering of 10 people the estimated risk of one person having the virus is … 28%. A bit to high for my taste.

Let's have a contest! What's the risk of SARS-Cov-2 in a gathering of 10 people where you live?

Btw, the new look sucks.

For my county it is 14%. However, I don't think the data on the GT site is accurate. I assume it make a statistical analysis of a random grouping based on the confirmed cases in the county. We know the number of people actually infected is much higher than the reported cases so the actual risk would be much greater than the straight statistical analysis. Also, if you have a gathering of 10 people it is likely that 2,3,4,5,... of those people are from your immediate household, so the actual risk would be much lower than the straight statistical analysis.

It is an interesting look at things, but it isn't an accurate picture of how things are.

 

[RamblinRed]

So, Georgia opened in May. We have never had a mandated mask order, statewide. We've been through holidays, riots, protests, voting, beaches open, bars open etc.

This is the daily reporting for today.

COVID-19 Status Report

These data represent confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the Georgia Department of Public Health.

dph.georgia.gov

View attachment 8563

For those who want %.
2.4% Death Rate (has fallen a FULL % point since the end of last month) ((Our death total is only 8.8% of New York's total))
2.1% ICU Admission Rate
11% Hospitalization Rate (length and treatment intensity not listed)

I'd give our Governor a thumbs up for the way he has handled this.

See you guys this fall at BDS @ HGF!!

You realize that none of those numbers are good numbers.
24 out of every 1,000 people with a confirmed case dying is not good.
1 out of every 9 needing hospitalization is not good. My daughter and son in law were visiting last night. his mom is a nurse. She says her hospital in Atlanta is full of COVID patients again. My neighbors who are nurses (one an ICU nurse) say the same thing at their hospital. 1 out of every 50 needing an ICU bed awful.
If it is similar to the national average the average length of stay for a COVID patient in the hospital is over a week. If they are in ICU it is over 2 weeks.
2,786 COVID patients in GA hospitals as of last night (the data you screenshot is as of 3 pm yesterday), that is the highest it has been at any time and it is increasing every day.

The current 7 day avg positive test % in GA is 15.5%, 6th highest in the country (only FL, TX, AZ, SC and AK have higher numbers) and one that suggests that community spread is currently out of control in the state of GA (recommendation is that number needs to be below 5% in order to be able to open and keep cases from exploding again assuming you use mitigation measures and have contact tracing in place)
You also have this comment
Russell Edwards, an Athens-Clarke Commissioner, said Wednesday that local hospitals were unable to accept new patients because they were so overwhelmed by new cases of the disease.

We should never come close to what happened in NY, no one should, they got caught in the first wave with no understanding of how to fight it.
But our health care system is getting strained already and with a current estimated transmission rate of 1.07 the cases, hospitalizations and deaths are all likely to continue to increase for the foreseeable future in our state.

Right now the numbers in GA are really bad and getting worse every day, I hope that it improves soon, but right now every metric is getting demonstratably worse, not better.

 

[RamblinRed]

My previous post should say AL not AK. Sorry.

 

[MidtownJacket]

Tech to the rescue again!

Want to know the risk that someone will have SARS-Cov-2 in your county, given different crowd sizes? Goto:

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.e...0BVFxmX1sy8YuuxKnQDm_HlQ2EuB0GjXdWEJF3KNs_DEc

I live in Cobb County. In a gathering of 10 people the estimated risk of one person having the virus is … 28%. A bit to high for my taste.

Let's have a contest! What's the risk of SARS-Cov-2 in a gathering of 10 people where you live?

Btw, the new look sucks.

Sitting at 29% for my county (Montgomery) - yikes.

 

[Techster]

 

[TooTall]

I posted accurate numbers with accurate percentages from the State of Georgia and people still think we need to shut down and never go out, EVER. Risk reward is a part of life. I guess that I failed to mention that in a state of over 9,000,000, only 1.4% of people have tested positive. Of that number, 11% need to be put in the hospital, of that number 2.1% need ICU and 2.4% of the 1.4% have died, or .03 of the total population. But, I guess that's a benefit of not living in metro Atlanta or any other urban place, I have to research numbers.

I guess people can look at facts and make their side, right or wrong, look correct. I'm done trying to reason with people about the virus. Personal in the medical field at our regional hospital are even saying that the media and politicians are blowing this way of out proportion. This argument is like politics or religion being discussed at a family reunion. Best not to talk about it because you're not going to change anyone's mind.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Masks may be moderately effective, and I wear one when I go out, but I think Redfied is grossly exaggerating in that comment.

 

[Techster]

Masks may be moderately effective, and I wear one when I go out, but I think Redfied is grossly exaggerating in that comment.

Hmm, should I believe a guy that's spent his life dedicated to infectious diseases and whose statement on facemasks is backed by data and scientist around the world...or some dude on a messageboard.

I wonder who I should put more faith in...tough call...